Reuters: Judge orders two Georgia counties to halt voter purge ahead of Senate runoff: Judge orders two Georgia counties to halt voter purge ahead of Senate runoff
My prediction:
Warnock beats Loeffler
Perdue beats Ossoff
I think Perdue narrowly keeps his job because he is a kind of generic Republican. Loeffler is really playing into the Culture War nonsense which invites backlash and mockery. Perdue on the other hand is a lot more low profile. Even the insider trading scandal has her on the defense far more than him.
How conveeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenient.
I don’t get the sarcasm (I assume). It is super-inconvenient for him because now he can’t campaign in person for the last few days. Of course the reason he did get exposed was by campaigning which the candidates sure as shit shouldn’t be doing. But it’s a fact that it is politically damaging to him, even if only slightly.
I still expect him to win, bit I can’t imagine he’s very happy right now.
Really?
No press shouting difficult questions at him, no having to declare for McConnell or Trump, no facing angry Trump people or liberal protesters… there are some upsides.
It’s also just possible he’s seen some inside polling that indicates things are not going as well as he hoped. Why put himself through all the unpleasantness for no good reason?
I’m sure there is a real person with COVID with whom he came into close contact. But as you yourself point out, he campaigned carelessly, so not sure what other outcome he could expect.
I hope Osoff makes the most of it.
His ability to campaign was already limited – the Senate is going to be in session and having votes on the Defense Authorization veto override through this weekend. This actually kind of frees him up from having to return to Washington and focus on the Senate, and even in quarantine I’m sure he’s going to be relentlessly working the phones, recording ads, appearing by video at events, etc.
Trump Declares Georgia Senate Races ‘Illegal And Invalid’ Days Ahead Of Vote: Trump Declares Georgia Senate Races 'Illegal And Invalid' Days Ahead Of Vote
I’d love to be a fly on the wall of the GOP candidates’ war rooms right about now…
I can’t possibly predict what’s happening in Georgia but I can say that the anti-RINO, disgruntled Trump supporter phenomenon seems real. I’ve seen multiple prominent billboards in Cobb and Fulton county detailing Trumpian grievances against Loeffler and Warnock. I’m aware of multiple individuals that I know directly and indirectly who are planning on either staying home or voting for Trump. I’m sure Democrats are paying for some of it, but it seems mostly organic to me.
This just seems bizarre to me. But I didn’t see Georgia turning blue either, so I don’t really know what to think anymore. All I can say is that according to what I see, it appears to be a real phenomenon.
I am very cautiously encouraged by the current 538 polling average.
Nowhere near encouraged enough to relax. And I can’t even go vote. And I have a Zoom meeting Tuesday night starting just about when results might start to come in. This is not good for my zoom concentration.
Wow, I was wading through the swamp of trump twitter nonsense to get my occasional train wreck fix, and I came across a response tweet from a guy with the twitter handle [at]magawarrior1776, who posted a helpful infographic called “The Dominion Algorithm”. I had been wondering what the point of the “Boycott Georgia runoff election” movement was for Repubs, and now I understand 
I don’t want to link to it and give him clicks, but it basically goes like this (you could probably google “The Dominion Algorithm” if you want to see the infographic for yourself):
- The research of those two paragons of intellect and sanity Sydney Powell and Lin Wood discovered “the Dominion Algorithm”, which deletes a certain % of Repub votes and adds some to the Democratic total.
- The algorithm was not designed to work with very small numbers of Repub votes, so if there are very few of them due to a boycott, the algorithm will glitch and register NEGATIVE numbers of Repub votes.
- This will make the fraud so obvious that SCOTUS will have no choice but to invalidate the Presidential election.
- “Real” conservative Georgia Senators can then be appointed after Kemp, Purdue and Loeffler’s arrests.
That…is just next-level stuff. I, for one, highly endorse the Repub boycott of the runoff election!
Ehhh, they’ll just look at the tallies and say that any blankvotes or misvotes ARE the “negative votes” (even if they’re a tenth of a percent) and ergo everything should be invalidated. And again they’ll get told by the courts “when come back, bring evidence”.
Yeah, that is a brilliant theory, I hope it takes off.
It’s better than the one I made up, which is that if Republicans write-in Trump for both Senate seats, they will create joinder between the two races and if Trump gets the most total votes, he will be the next senator and can challenge Mitch for majority leader.
Regarding the polling averages on 538, why would the percentages not add up to 100? I assume that the pollsters only give two options for each race, which is how they will appear on the ballot. If they are polling likely voters, why include those who say they don’t know who they support? I assume that the shortfall comes from those voters, rather than including people who say nutty things like that they plan to vote for Trump.
538 adjusts polls for house effects.
I assume that this is going to be the same as the general, counting doesn’t start until tomorrow, so with a massive turnout we’ll be waiting days for a result again?
Just a wild guess, but I assume with only three races on the ballot and only two candidates in each race, the count could be a little quicker. The election workers will also be more experienced, which may also help.
I’m not sure about the first point - does the number of races make any difference, when it’s feeding ballots into a machine reader?
Wondering what GOP lawsuit confectionery will present itself if Warnock and Ossoff win.