But these are Senate elections.

Election Needles: Georgia Senate Runoffs (Published 2021)
Modeling the Senate runoff election results.
But these are Senate elections.
Are Republicans going to insist on having hundreds of untrained “poll watchers” crowding in and screaming at the election workers?
“No Fair”
And
“Find more votes”
That seems to be the sum total of Trumplican strategery.
To-day’s, the daaaaaaaay.
It’s gonna be, o-kaaaaaay,
Because I’ll betcha,
Ain’t no-body gonna,
Stop Jon and Rev.
Are Republicans going to insist on having hundreds of untrained “poll watchers” crowding in and screaming at the election workers?
This isn’t a response to your question, it’s just a related anecdote. I was a poll place supervisor in Missouri in November; it was my first experience doing it, and the issue of poll observers was one of my biggest concerns.
The policy handbook said that if there was a registered observer, they should be positioned so that they could hear the poll workers announce the names of the voters. That would, theoretically, allow the observer to quickly write down the names of those voting, to insure that there weren’t multiple voters casting ballots using the same name. (I presumed this was a safeguard instituted to combat extreme, barely disguised, voter fraud.)
However, in the three elections I had previously worked, there were no observers, and the poll workers did NOT shout out voters’ names. In fact, the poll workers tried not to draw attention to the people voting – we’d digitally scan their IDs, quietly print their ballots, and then the ballot would be initialed by both a Dem and an Repub poll worker.
There were three ID scanners, spread out over 20 feet, so the poll workers would really have to shout to enable an observer to know who was receiving a ballot. The other poll supervisor (-R-), had no idea that we were supposed to announce the voters’ names for the observers, and we did not work out a strategy in advance to handle the matter.
For better or worse, no observers came to our polling place, and I was pretty happy about that. Everyone was wearing a mask and didn’t want observers looking over their shoulders, and no one wanted to talk loudly. And because society was hyperaware of issues of voter fraud and voter intimidation, I didn’t think voters would appreciate having their names shouted out, loudly enough that everyone in the room could hear it.
It could get crazy in Georgia.
You forgot
“It can’t be”.
king and kornacki are at their “big walls” ready to pounce on every number coming down.
kornacki is my favourite.
I’m pretty sure both Democrats will breeze to victory.
For Republican voters, this is one of those rare win-win elections. Either the Republicans win, or the $2,000 stimulus checks come.
For Republican voters, this is one of those rare win-win elections. Either the Republicans win, or the $2,000 stimulus checks come
Rep. voter: “Hmmm… If Perdue and Loeffler win, I won’t get my $2000 stimulus. But, then, neither will those people, and it’ll make the libtards cry. Perdue and Loeffler it is!!”
As far as a prediction goes, most likely a split. I think Perdue squeaks back in, and Loeffler gets kicked to the curb. I hope I’m wrong and the Dems take both.
What’s with these exit poll questions? Did they at any point ask the question: “who did you vote for?”
CNN just reported that in person voting in Dekalb County (heavily Democratic Atlanta metro county) was HIGHER than November’s election. And there is still an hour and a half to go.
Modeling the Senate runoff election results.
NYT needle is a fun real time analyzer for the votes coming in. Right now leaning blue for both races, very, very slightly.
I’m watching the numbers on 538 and AP. So far there appears to be very little ticket-splitting between the two races - at the moment, less than 2000 out of nearly 600,000 votes cast.
A good place for good, geeky analysis is Josh Marshall’s ‘numbers peeps’ list on Twitter. Basically a subset of ‘election Twitter’ as it’s called.
Here’s the link: https://twitter.com/i/lists/706696973345107968
Where things seem to be, per the numbers peeps:
Election Day turnout looks slightly higher than expected (bad for Dems, because just like in November, it’s expected that mail and early voting favor Dems, but Election Day voting favors GOP)
Of those counties where all or essentially all the ballots have been counted, Ossoff and Warnock are both running a point or two ahead of Biden’s performance in November (good, if it keeps up)
Watching on Predictit right now, and doing some jumping in and out, made a little bit of beer money throughout the night. At this moment, the numbers are about as promising as they’ve been thus far tonight : 73% Warnock, 67% Ossoff.
Here was a striking number:
Steve Kornaki, the vote-counter extraordinaire on MSNBC , just pointed out that Republicans are most worried about voter turnout in the northern third of the state. One of those little northern traditionally-Republican counties has reported 96% of its vote already. The turnout number was down by 23%.
Twenty-fucking-three percent. (!!!)
Granted, just one county. But if that turnout number holds in the north…
Washington County was a red county in November. Tonight, it’s blue. That’s with 99% reporting.
Ossoff and Warnock both ahead with more than a quarter of the votes counted, but CNN warns that the results will shift due to early ballots favoring Democrats.
All I know is that Trump has a narrative prepared for any outcome. Should both Democrats prevail, it will be proof positive that the entire Georgia electoral system is “rigged”. Should both Republicans prevail, it will be proof positive that the state runs heavily Republican and that he clearly won but the election was “stolen” by Democratic chicanery. The two are contradictory, but whichever one he spews out when the time comes, the rubes will drink the Kool-Aid. If the outcome is mixed, he’ll have some story in between that also supports his narrative. And the rubes will totally believe that, too.
Oh, and another option that has to be thrown in: if even one Democrat wins, it’s all Raffensperger’s fault and he should resign immediately! This will be a tweet with many capital letters.
Suppose that Republicans win both races and the Senate remains a 50-50 tie. Then it would just be a matter of waiting until all the new incoming senators are seated and then Schumer becomes majority leader and can pass the new stimulus checks, right?
So either way, the outcome is the same - Democratic majority and stimulus passes - it’s only a matter of whether 50-50 or 52-48?