As expected.
But this particular vote dump was expected to be strongly Republican, so it was already baked into the predictions. Needle hasn’t moved.
Wow! This is looking really, really good so far. I was not particularly hopeful.
The NPR page is a lot less encouraging right at the moment.
Live Results: Georgia Senate Runoff Elections : NPR –
is the idea that there are still a lot of votes to come in from blue areas?
Yes. Ossoff’s race looks like it will be the nail biter, though. Warnock is doing really well.
FWIW, NY Times needle is bullish on Warnock and Ossoff with 70% of the vote in. 75% shot for Warnock and 64% shot for Ossoff.
I’ve got a very bad feeling about this. ISTM that it’s very rare for someone to get out to a big lead, lose it, and then come back and win. I know that it can happen but it’s not the way elections usually go.
FWIW:
We’ll see.
Now 76% in on NYT and 78% chance for Warnock to win and 66% chance for Ossoff to win
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FWIW:
We’ll see.
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That’s…not how any of this work, you need to look at the count through a lens of what is missing and where it is missing from. Just because the smaller Republican counties can count faster due to only having tens of thousands of voters compared to hundreds of thousands for the Dem counties doesn’t mean they are “winning”. All they are winning is the counting speed.
I understand that. I’m just saying that it’s unusual. Perhaps that’s because I’m old and my frame of reference is years of watching elections that weren’t so divided upon racial and class lines.
In particular, what is different now (from the “early leader overtaken and never regaining the lead” state) is that now you have large numbers of votes that are counted early (Democratic-leaning), then you have small precincts returning in-person totals (Republican-leaning), and then finally you have large precincts returning in-person votes and remaining early votes (Democratic-leaning).
So the previous paradigm has been upended a bit by what used to be an inconsequential number of votes (mail-in votes) now being both much larger and much more heavily tilted than usual.
I’d be willing to bet most of those years didn’t have up to the minute vote counts the very second election officials send them in though. You are not seeing “leads”, only counting speed.
Point taken.
I may have missed it, what was turnout like today in Atlanta metro?
I’d still feel better if Ossoff and Warnock had commanding leads.
Dave Wasserman is an editor at Cook Political Report.
Again, FWIW.
Lots still to count in 82% DeKalb.
Matt Dowd on ABC is claiming that most of the remaining votes actually ARE early votes.