:smack:
I do it like this:
What is the minimum amount of additional information we can get from our power roles assuming scum can do everything in their power and be lucky enough to execute it?
Tonight both Vig and Cop will target different unknowns. Scum could kill one, and prevent one from succeeding but the other will survive. Furthermore, the one that lives will be able to act again the following night since the Doc would be alive. That means we get a minimum of 2 Vig kills or 2 Cop investigations.
As storyteller showed, killing the Doc guarantees a Town win.
So with 2 Vig kills, that reduces the unknown pool by 2, and Town can force a win.
With 2 Cop reads: Two Scum reads obviously leads to a Town win.
Two Town Reads reduces the unknown pool by 2 AND increases the confirmed pool by 2, obviously the Town wins.
With one of each, the confirmed pool goes up by 1 and the unknown goes down by 1… again a Town win.
It is not possible for scum to limit Town to 1 Vig and 1 cop action.
The ONLY way scum can win is if Town Powers fail to submit their actions.
I’m torn on who to suggest to investigate. On one hand I think MentalGuy should investigate me as I would hope everyone agrees that the likelihood of my being scum is abysmally small. Seriously, pushing hard for killing myself, then pushing hard for lynching and vigging from the set of three that contained 2 scum (3 if you think I’m scum too!). Anyway. A single investigation of a Vanilla Town wins the game so I think based on the history of the game I’m a good candidate for that.
Failing that, I’d have MentalGuy investigate Manwich. For out of game reasons I think it would be nice to put Manwich’s status to rest. If he’s scum we know to lynch him and he doesn’t have to put up a fight or anything. If he’s Town we will know not to lynch him and similarly he can be free to attend to more important matters.
vote guiri
Vig kill storyteller
Investigate sachertorte or Manwich
Looking at the list of claimed vanilla, I think Idle Thoughts is a good candidate for scum. Mainly because of all the people on the list, I think he is the most likely to say F-it, I’m drawing this sucker out even if there isn’t any chance for winning.
No you are not!
Kidding. He is. 
Uh, third mason? Feel free to claim.
Doesn’t this definitively identify the Doc? Wouldn’t we be better served by having two non-Vanilla confirmed players – it’s not as if there’s any doubt as to the status of either, and this way we keep the scum guessing even more as to who to target, as they might end up accidentally killing the final Mason.
I’d recommend that the third Mason stay hidden, personally, since you and OAOW know that he/she is in the non-Vanilla pool and thus is in no danger of a lynch or Vig kill.
Yeah. I see no reason for the third mason to claim.
In retrospect, I see no reason for OAOW to have claimed either. If we were thinking clearly, we would have had Peeker and OAOW claim not vanilla and played hide the Vig and Doc that way. I don’t think that really matters though.
But since no scum have claimed Not Vanilla, there is no reason to expose which of Ed and Zeriel are the Doc. Of course, scum shouldn’t even try to kill the Doc, but that is a whole different discussion and they don’t have much in terms of choices anyway.
To be clear, I’m not criticizing OAOW or anyone else. We (including me) had done a full claim analysis and saw that it worked to ensure a town win so a full claim was asked for. No one (including me) thought about the benefits of a less-than-full-claim claim. I think it is for the best anyway, as we got the claim done quickly this time.
Now we just twiddle our thumbs and make sure we have at least three votes on our lynch target.
The third mason should not claim. Scum has to decide which of Special Ed and I is the doctor
Also, vote Idle Thoughts
Power roles can feel free to use best judgement, I used up all my predictive mojo this game on Pleo.
Ah, good point. Third mason, stay hidden, then.
Look, everyone here (other than myself) SEEMS to agree there’s no way scum can win and Town has it in the bag. Then why haven’t the scum given up? If I were scum, and I knew there was no way we could win (and from the numbers laid out, as far as --I-- know, there isn’t), I’d give up.
This makes me believe there’s something we’re missing…something Town doesn’t know but that scum does that makes them believe they must still have a shot.
Unless we have dumb scum, of course.
Oh, and remember, I got the “Arise, chicken” message on Night one. I guess those voting for me believe I didn’t really get it?
Can any other vanilla person confirm that that’s what the message says when you get it and it doesn’t work?
This is a good point – unless scum Idle and his brethren passed up a chance to try to recruit on Night One to give Idle credibility with the townies, of course.
Basically WIFOM, although I do think it makes it slightly more likely that Idle might actually be plain vanilla than claimed vanillas in the pool who didn’t allegedly receive a chicken message…like me, for instance.
I keep running it back and forth in my head. We could screw up and no-lynch toDay, if we don’t make sure to get our collective act together. That would be a problem, as it would open a modest window.
Is it at all possible that there is no Doctor? Only if peeker is lying about having targeted pedescribe, and is therefore Scum, but if that’s the case, the Vig will kill peeker toNight (there’d be no Doctor to protect peeker, of course, because there’d be no Doctor). Even if, in such a case, peeker killed the Vig before the Vig killed peeker, the dead Vig would reveal peeker’s lie and we’d lynch him toMorrow. So that’s not an avenue.
What happens if Scum kill the Cop toNight? Given that killing to Doctor is useless to them. Say we mislynch (down to 10-2, 6 lynchable and 6 nonlynchable). Scum kill Cop (down to 9-2, 5 and 6) and Vig kills Town Vanilla (8-2, 5 and 5). ToMorrow we mislynch again (7-2, 5 and 4). That Night the Scum kill the Doc (6-2, 4 and 4) and the Vig kills another Vanilla (5-2, 4 and 3). Next Day we mislynch ANOTHER Vanilla (4-2, 4 and 2). Going into that Night the only living players are the Vig, all three Masons, and the Scum. They kill the Vig (3-2). Next day we lynch a Scum (3-1). That Night they kill a Mason (2-1). Next day we lynch the last Scum. Game over.
If they kill the Vig? We mislynch (down to 10-2, 6 and 6). Scum kill Vig (9-2, 5 and 6). Cop clears Vanilla Townie (9-2, 6 and 5). Next Day we mislynch (8-2, 6 and 4). That Night the Scum kill the Doc (7-2, 5 and 4), but the Cop clears another Vanilla Townie (7-2, 6 and 3). Next Day we mislynch (6-2, only Scum remain lynchable). Scum kill Cop (5-2). We lynch Scum (5-1). Scum kill some random nonlynchable (4-1). We lynch final Scum. Game over.
As long as we actually lynch someone from the unknown pool every Day, this game is over. To that end,
unvote Manwich
vote Idle Thoughts
I am glad to switch my vote to any currently lynchable player, in fact including myself, to make sure that a lynch actually happens toDay. Everyone should do this. One of the definitively confirmed - Mahaloth, Wanderers, ed, Mental Guy, doesn’t matter - please designate a target (I don’t care who, as long as it’s not a claimed power role) and every player in the game should vote for that target. This absolutely prevents any kind of last minute chicanery ending in a non-lynch.
Yeah, fair enough.
Vote Idle Thoughts
Oh, and whoever lists the Town’s target for the lynch should also name the targets for peeker and Mental Guy toNight (the Doc should do whatever [s]he pleases). peeker and Mental Guy should adhere to those targets absolutely.
At this late date, I have a question for the moderator, as I have just reviewed the rules and want to be very, very, very sure of something that isn’t stated explicitly there that I can see:
Can you confirm that the Scum Sleeper, if awakened, will be vanilla Scum with no special powers
I don’t think the scum passed on a recruitment attempt on Night 1.
Vote Guiri