I think asp is a typo for asap meaning as soon as possible.
(I have not read the game thread).
My poor scum buddies are getting frustrated on their hidden spoiler boards.
I think I agree with them. Nat’s reveal, assuming he’s telling the truth, moves the balance of power towards confirmed and semi-confirmed. Town has 9 confirmed or semi-confirmeds against a pool of 8 unknowns. Scum is caught shooting into the confirmed or unconfirmed pile and risking getting blocked/protected, or shooting into the unknowns to hit serial killers. And that’s only if they’re right; I’m not saying one way or the other if town or scum have misidentified people and placed them in the wrong pile.
But either way, this game is looking all but impossible for scum to win, especially given that town and scum don’t seem any closer to finding the third parties.
I agree. I don’t know how many Scum are left, but it’s probably only one or two (and your use of “buddies”, plural, might be a deliberate trap for anyone who’s reading this but shouldn’t be). With as many semi-confirmed as there are, Scum’s chances are terrible. On the other hand, it’s not really possible to tell how well the third parties are doing, without knowing exactly what their win condition is. And, of course, if there’s a third-party killer (which seems extremely likely), they’re probably going to want to thin out the confirmed pool, too, so things aren’t completely hopeless for the Scum just yet.
And “asp” as a typo for “asap” makes a lot of sense in that quote; thanks. I was just picturing a Scum who got bonus kills by putting poisonous snakes in peoples’ beds or something, so he’d have extra kill asps to use up.
I’d offer to sub back in, story, but I’m in possession of at least two pieces of potentially game-breaking information, so I really can’t.
Scum have a lot of ground to recover. The 2 NK of scum really hurt the team. Having lost 4 scum by Day Five pretty much means scum shouldn’t win. But who knows? If Tom is telling the truth, and there really isn’t any reason for him to lie, then scum will be getting rid of the biggest thorn in their side with Tom’s Lynch. That’s at least progress.
I understand your point, but there’s plenty of reason for him to lie. He was trying to convince town to let him stay alive as a chained vig. I really doubt the other third-party would speak up with a “Nuh uh!” 
Lying would not work because if someone else had killed the two scum then that person (presumably Town) would know Tom was lying. Either they out him right there or… more probable, they kill him at Night.
Lying about who you killed only works if you know the person who really did the killing is dead, which Tom knows is not the case.
OK, Tom clearly needs to die. Even if his play thus far has helped Town significantly (as it looks like it has), he’s clearly stated that his win condition is inconsistent with Town’s, so he needs to die eventually anyway.
Now, then, folks for whom there’s some mechanical evidence (though, I note, not proof) for what they are:
1,2 Stanislaus and Normal Phase: Masons. They confirm each other, and I don’t think that Scum would have false-claimed masons with an SK still on the loose.
3 Natlaw: Wanderers confirms that he’s the voodoo witch doctor with a protective power. Could conceivably still be Scum, but Scum don’t generally have much use for a protector.
4 Wanderers: Oy! confirms that he used an investigative power on Natlaw when he claimed to have. Might still be a Scum investigator, but Scum are probably running low on warm bodies right now, and might well have better use for their actions than investigations (especially if there’s only one Scum left).
5 Mahaloth: Normal Phase confirms that someone did what he says he did, when he says he did it. That’d be a really bizarre power for Scum to have, but possible, I suppose.
6 brewha: Wanderers confirms that he was blocked, when brewha said he was doing it, on a night after peeker died.
7 Oy!: Drain Bead confirms that she received a flower from someone. Still no confirmation of what the flower does, or that the giver was Town.
8 Drain Bead: Something that matches her description certainly happened on the Night (or non-Night) when she cast her spell.
9 Total Lost: If lilflower is to be believed, is not a Deadite. For whatever that’s worth. There might be a human on the Scum team, and there’s probably one more (presumably human) PFK. Plus, of course, lilflower is still unconfirmed.
10 Tom Scud: Almost certainly telling (mostly) the truth, but the truth isn’t good.
Claims for which there is no mechanical evidence:
lilflower: If correct, Total Lost is not a Deadite.
Hal Briston: If correct, MHaye and Rysto were killed by Deadites, and Omi no Kami was killed by someone else. Unconfirmable, and even if true, doesn’t help much.
USCDiver: Doesn’t really tell us anything we didn’t already know.
By my count, that’s eight players with decent arguments for the Towniness, out of 17 alive. That’s a very strong position for Town to be in, especially if we’re going to be down to one kill per Night from here on out. After Tom, I think my suspicions would be towards the three unconfirmable claims, Hal, lilflower, and USCDiver. Eventually, after she claims to have used up her items, I might also want to kill Oy!, just because her confirmation is relatively weak, and she’s a critical link in supporting the Towniness of multiple folks. Mrs. McGinty might also be a good lynch, by virtue of being unconfirmed, and being a neat resolution to the non-access problem. But Tom’s the priority right now, and Morning is likely to bring new information.
Oh, I forgot one other piece of evidence: Wanderers knew that Tom had taken the book before he 'fessed up to it.
sigh I wish that story hadn’t had posted that spoiler way back. OAOW is clearly scum and TL is the Town power role whose power is intended to find the PFK in question.
It’s posts like thisthat made me distrust lilflower when I was in the game.
That is a bad smudgy post, that is smudging someone for crap reasons.
- it doesn’t actually lay out suspicion, just implies it. That’s no good.
- The thing that she implies being suspicious about is strange, but unlikely to be scummy.
If you assume that scum aren’t stupid, and you should, then there is no reason for scum to post a claim like TLs with a gigantic glaring contradiction in it. If anything, scum would work hard to have a watertight claim and remove those sorts of contradictions and inconsistencies. I am not saying that it doesn’t happen, but to claim that it is happening that obviously is to call the player who is claiming stupid for missing something so blatant.
Not everything unusual is scummy. In fact, more often than not unusual things are townie indicators.
Who called McGinty as the Vig? Nice call.
My impression is that lilflower is new. Roll back to M1 and M2 and everyone would be saying the same things that lilflower is saying now.
I think she is Metalic Squink on Giraffe, which makes her not very new. I could be wrong about that though. If she is a newbie I take back the criticism because you are right, that is exactly the sort of argument that we would have gotten in M1, M2, even M3 and Pirates.
I think I did, but I don’t think I was the first one.
Except that we don’t know yet if it’s a nice call, do we? And the only thing she’s said so far on the topic is that she hasn’t killed anyone yet.
One other thing… From Mrs. McGinty’s claim:
That phrasing about having two thumbs also shows up in Romanic’s claim. But the thing is, it makes sense in Romanic’s claim, him being a hitchhiker and all. But for Ash? I’m not seeing that. I’m thinking that what happened is that Mrs. McGinty forged a role PM, using the other out ones as templates. Yeah, yeah, the Scum almost certainly have mod-supplied claims, but my suspicion is more on her as a third-party, anyway.
Quoth Rysto:
Yeah, now that I’ve had time to think about it, I’m seeing that, too.
I’ve never had so much fun getting lynched in my life.
Do y’all think I would have been able to pull off a third-person Survivor claim?
As in, a non-hostile third party? Mahaloth had already told everyone that there were two hostile third parties, and I think that most folks would have probably found two hostiles and one non-hostile a bit hard to swallow.
Probably your best bet would have been to claim to have used some sort of protective or investigative power on NAF, once Wanderers fingered you as having interacted with him. It probably still wouldn’t have saved you, long term, but it might have postponed the inevitable.
BTW, I was totally serious when I said in-thread that I think Nanook is the other scum, along with One And Only.