Guerilla War: Is Iraq really over?

Recently, in a post about GWB’s statements about revisionist historians, I made a statement about the war in Iraq:


You know, I have pondered the numerous threads that have erupted on these boards that relate to the war. Many of them are phrased in a past tense, as if the war is over. I realize that Bush has declared victory, but I don’t recognize the victory when 50 flag covered U.S. coffins have been pulled out of the “non-war” zone in the past 45 days. At this rate, we will lose 400 men and women a year in this “non-war”. It will take only 90 more days to lose more men and women than we lost in the invasion. I also have noticed the rates of guerilla attacks increasing in the past few weeks.

Bush declared victory, but we have suffered about 33% as many casualties as we did during the invasion. In addition, we have failed to capture Saddam Hussein and recover any weapons of mass destruction. We have also, apparently, not suppressed the Saddam loyalists who are killing our troops every week.

Has anyone ever pondered that the sudden collapse of Iraqi resistance around Baghdad (remember, it took us half of the invasion time to secure some of the smaller southern cities in Iraq) was actually a tactic employed by Saddam? Our troops were driving into the downtown district pretty much unopposed. Also, the territories most loyal to Saddam folded relatively quickly. IMHO, this means that they intentionally went underground, with their weapons (WMD if they do exist), to fight a guerilla war.

I hope this is not the case, but I suspect it is. How long will it take before the fear and anger start gripping our troops? History has shown that when troops have a devoted purpose and are making progress, they have much higher morale. However, when they have to sit by and let militias take pot shots, they get quickly disgruntled and the likelihood of tragedies increases (i.e. Vietnam). This includes the accidental shooting of non-combatants (something that is a reality in a guerilla war) that will do little but raise support for anti-american forces.

Now, lets say we don’t practice these co-called revisionist philosophies that Mr. bush espouses. And, let’s assume that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and posed a threat. Now, he is still not captured AND those weapons have not been recovered. Does anyone here actually believe that the Iraqi military posed a threat to the U.S.? I doubt it. All we have accomplished so far, is to dismantle the official Iraqi military that did not have the capability to project power anywhere outside the immediate region.

In reality, the threat was allegedly posed by an evil dictator (who still exists), who allegedly had weapons of mass destrcution (which if we believe the tripe, he still has) and was going to give them to terrorists (which he still could).

Thus, we have accomplished nothing related to our primary objective- Minimizing danger to America. Therefore, the war is far from over. I personally find it disgusting that while U.S. troops are dying, Bush is moving on to his next political step and pushing the “great” economy on the road to re-election.


I am submitting for debate to the dopers, Is this war really over?

The following story is not a factual statement, since it has not been verified, but today, at work, my husband told me that one of his employees was talking about her husband. She said, during a phone conversation with him (he is stationed in Iraq and is usually staffing a checkpoint), two large explosions erupted in the background. He left the phone and called back an hour later. She said that he had just witnessed two U.S. soldiers dying and 13 wounded. According to her statements, attacks against U.S. troops are occuring everyday. She says (and she is a Bush loyalist) that there are more casualties than what is being officially reported. She told him about how she worries every night because the other women she knows, who have had wounded husbands, have had to wait 10-12 days before being notified. We have “officially” lost 50 men and women since May 1st. I heard one more today, so that make 51. Also, we have allegedly, according to NPR, just fired into a crowd of rock throwing dissidents (please note my statements in the above captured post about creating anger).

Thus, my statement in the other thread seems more poignant now. No one addressed it in that thread, so I must bring it up again.

Is this war truly over? If it is, and we believe Bush when he declares victory, why are we still losing so many soldiers? This woman told my husband that her Husband’s combat unit is down to 67% after compassionate discharges, casualties and KIA’s.

What is happening here? We are losing men and women and Bush is on his re-election trail about the economy. I cannot understand this. Why is he not in the ready room dealing with a war? Why have we declared victory?

What do you dopers think is going to happen in the future? If we pull out prematurely, we will lose the stability of the country. If we stay, we will lose troops. Why is nobody talking about this? This war is still going on and we are squabbling about WMD’s and the justification for the war in the first place. I have seen no protests about the current situation. Does this mean that the American people believe this is over?

If they do, they have just disrespected the men and women who are dying everyday over in Iraq.

I reiterate my previous post:

Finish the damn job Mr. Bush and bring our boys (and girls) back home.

There is no surrender document. Nor do we have control over Saddam Hussein. US forces are fighting organized resistance almost every day. We can’t account for the leader of the old regime, and fighting continues. I don’t consider the war won.

The many suspected sites for weapons having been burned and or ‘looted’ doesn’t hearten me much either.

The American People, as a group, seem to think it is over. There is no support in reality for that belief.

No quagmire here.
The water needs to get considerably deeper before anyone will notice, much less acknowledge its existence.

So far we’re only knee-deep in the Big Muddy, Squink?

http://www.dickalba.demon.co.uk/songs/texts/bigmuddy.html

Odd that you should mention that here :smiley:

Hey! Didn’t you people get the message? Mission accomplished! George even posed for pictures with the banner and everything! Sheesh!

Lissa, I doubt anyone here was as vociferously opposed to putting our kids in harms way as myself. But its too late. As appealing a notion as it may be, we simply can’t just yank them out of there and let the chips fall where they may, unless someone will volunteer to take our place. Its not even possible to gauge the consequences of turning Iraq over to the rule of Lord Chaos, civil war might be the least dreadful.

What we should do is go, hat in hand, to the UN and beg thier assistance. If they were to tell us to take a flying fuck at a rolling doughnut, one could hardly blame them.

A sensible path to a sane and peaceful solution? I’ve no idea.

Moderator’s Note: There are no threads in the BBQ Pit that should be in Great Debates! Never!

Moving thread from the Pit to GD, which is of course totally unnecessary as there are no such threads. There are only a couple of such threads, which are in the Pit but belong in GD, and they have already been moved.

SDMB: What, never?
MEBuckner: No, never!
SDMB: What, NEVER?
MEBuckner: Well, hardly ever!

Think that impresses ME? Feh! When you start moving the lamer rants from the Pit to MPSIMS, then I’ll be impressed. :wink:

My impression from GWB’s earlier speeches was that it would take years to deal with a regime-change in Iraq. It would be accurate to say the initial land war is over. The policing aspect of regime-change has just begun.

If the news is correct, we just captured a leading player along with a large amount of cash. There is a good possibility that US troops are under fire by mercenaries who are collecting a bounty. 1 person a day suggests a very small number of people are involved. I would compare it to the Washington sniper where 2 people caused a tremendous amount of death and financial damage. .

I would expect the attacks to continue until the source of the money dries up. Saddam and his allies need to be captured.

I conclude with an observation: 1 death a day is less than most large city in the United States. Given the size of Bagdad, that is a sad reflection on our own society.

If I may drop in here: Which “war” are you talking about? There was never any “war” declared to begin with. The USA invaded a sovereign nation violating internation law.
You talk here about US soldiers dying? Do you realise that they are in the army to kill? Do you realize that there are thousands of Iraqi people murdered and that there are even more wounded and will suffer from that for the rest of their lives? Do you realize there are people who lost their whole family, their homes, all their posessions thanks to the USA?
And you wonder why the “war” is not over?
There was no “war”.
If you were invaded by a criminal nation that uses all its military might and cruel wartoys to get your natural resources and colonize your country, what would you do? Call that “war”?

I see here someone making the remark that there was no “peace treaty” or something like that signed?
What?
How can you even come to the idea?

By the way: Where are those so called WMD’s? Where is that “immediate threat”? Where are those weapons “ready to be launched in 45 minutes”. How many US soldiers died so far of those so called “chemical weapons”? (reminder: Bush the criminal said: tons and tons and tons of them were ready to be used).
And further: Where is Hussein?
And further: Where is bin laden (oh God, don’t tell me you have already forgotten who’s that supposed to be?)
And further: what “connection” between this supposed al qaeda and Iraq?
There is none, as there are no WMD and there are no chemical and biological weapons and there is no “nuclear threat” what so ever.
I wonder how long the vast majority of the American population is going to swallow all these lies.
Believe me: the rest of the world doesn’t and the majority didn’t since the very beginning your president and government started with this rethoric. Even in Britain - where Tony Blair is now roasted and gets burned more and more by the day - the public protest was significant. I wonder how much Americans have seen actually from the real “war”. From the bloody scenes of death and destruction. Your ‘imbedded’ journalists are a joke and a scandal and an insult for independent journalism. They report as if the Iraqis are the criminals while the crimes are committed by the USA/UK.

And as for the future: The complete ignorance of the US government -and of the military overthere- about that nation, its culture, its religion and the related sensitivities is just one sign of their unmeasurable arrogance. If you think this can be resolved without the UN, I wish you all good luck. And even if the UN gets involved, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Aldebaran.

I’d say that the United States is in a much better position to win the ongoing struggle in Iraq now. It’s certainly not over, though.

At this point, according to the stuff I read, we’re in the counterinsurgency phase of the occupation, and it’s probably a little early to make judgments as to whether or not it’s working. In fact, I’ll even go out on a limb and say that it might be a little early to make any judgments about Afghanistan, too.

Counterinsurgency works along the principle that you can win the–here it comes–hearts and minds of the local population by first helping the local populace rebuild and improve its infrastructure, being dependable with your support but making the local populace responsible for its ultimate safety, organizing and training local defenses, and finally carrying out anti-guerilla activities once people have it a little better and trust you as a means of assistance rather than an occupier. The idea is to deny territory to the enemy by turning the local populace against them. This takes time and patience, and there will be constant set-backs because one of the things you’re trying to achieve is local support for you by forcing the guerillas to act like assholes toward the local populace.

While the term “hearts and minds” is bandied about sarcastically regarding Vietnam, it’s important to note that the Americans didn’t universally focus on a ground-level counterinsurgency program in Vietnam–it was far more search-and-destroy oriented, as best I can tell. There are indications that when it was tried in earnest, for example in Laos in 1965-1966 and among the Montagnards thereafter, it worked fairly well. (Southern and northeastern Iraq appear to offer similar opportunities for fairly quick results.) A more modern example might be that of Panama, which appears to have worked out fairly well in the end, all things considered.

It looks like the counterinsurgency plan is being applied in Iraq as well. The thing is that I don’t think this approach is any less costly or less time consuming than the old-school occupy-and-control strategy, and I get the distinct impression that this administration is trying to do its job on the cheap.

If we start having lots and lots of SAS and Special Forces guys coming home dead, then I think it’s time to admit that the war is continuing, local support has waned, and the situation is deteriorating. Until then I think we need to give those guys (and gals, perhaps?) time to do their work, and while I don’t know how long that will take, it sure as heck won’t be done tomorrow.

(And by the way, I did not and still don’t particularly support this war in Iraq, particularly for the “reasons” cited by our leaders. But I’m of the position that now that we’ve taken a big bite of the poop sandwich, we’d better not leave the table before it’s finished. That’s the brilliance of the Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz plan: it’s a one-way street to success, because if we were to pull over now, things would only be worse for the United States, Iraq, and perhaps the rest of the world as well. Nice job, you jerks.)

You have no idea of that country. The US invaded that nation and acts as if it is their property. Do you have any idea what this caused in the Muslim world outside that nation? If not, then how can you have any idea how the US occupation is felt INSIDE that occupied nation?
Your soldiers are actually doing “body control” on women! They chase Muslim men NAKED through the streets!
Do you have any idea of the impact of such barbarism on a Muslim society. And those are only two examples.
And you have no clue about the structure of that culture, the differences between tribes, ethnicies, religions. Yes, at least 97% is Muslim, but do you have an idea about the difference between Sunni and Shi’ Islam and how powerful even a local Shi’a leader can get?
And that is only one single factor there.

Do you have any idea that the Christian fundamentalists of the sect of your president are using this criminal invasion to go in with bibles and “jesus saves” talks?
How do you think they will be received?

Americans think they just can invade a country and impose their ruling and lifestyle.
Well, I’m sorry, but you can’t and it’s time you wake up from that arrogant dream.

Aldebaran

Huh? Do you have cites on those? And could you please define “body control?”**

Well, yeah, we did.**

I would assume poorly. They aren’t all that well received HERE.

Yes, I still must have those sources. I shall look for them. It was first published in a Norwegian media, pictures included. But I’ll look for an English translation.
And with “body control” I mean they do body search on women. In a society where women are sacred, let be for unbelievers.

And sorry to inform you, but these Christian fundamentalist risk to be killed. And then of course the USA wil start screaming “terrorists” and whatever.

Aldebaran.

Let’s pull out and say we are afraid our people might get hurt. Let’s find Saddam an put him back in power. Saddam was a swell guy that did a great job. Once the terrorists see that we will cut and run we wont have to worry about them attacking us again or middle east countries letting camps terrorist camps run in the open. Once they see how afraid we are they won’t think of attacking America again. The trick is to out chicken them.

This had been bought to you by the DNC. Vote democratin 04 we cry harder.

Pretty solid argument you presented there. Where’d you learn to present fact so clearly?

You do know that you aren’t in The Pit, don’t you?