He Hate Me FF keeper league - Year 10

The Game Room
162

The ceiling for a rookie quarterback- even guys who are “the real deal” just isn’t that high, though. Matt Ryan had a great rookie season by most standards and threw 16 TDs. He was still a late round pick the following year.

Andy Dalton had a phenomenal rookie season and threw 20 TDs. He was an 11th round pick this year.

Sam Bradford had a great rookie year and threw 18 TDs. He was a 9th round pick last year (as a keeper).

Let’s say Luck is Peyton Manning (though as a rookie Manning had Marvin Harrison and the league’s best running back taking pressure off him; Luck has no such weapons). That means you get 26 TDs and 3700 yards - and probably Manning’s 28 interceptions too.

So then there’s Cam Newton. Can Luck run? Sure, but he’s not going to put up Newton numbers. Nobody ever has. We’ll assume that Reggie Wayne is roughly comparable to Steve Smith at this point in their careers, and Luck matches Newton’s 4000/21 passing numbers.

Guess what? That’s almost exactly what Ben Roethlisberger managed last season in 15 games. It’s 600 yards and 6 touchdowns fewer than Rivers managed in 2011, his second-worst season as a starter. It’s 300 yards more than Cutler’s 2011, if you average his numbers over a full season, without Brandon Marshall.

I suppose at that point you could call the whole thing a wash (except with Rivers, whose floor is basically Luck’s ceiling) - but then you have to consider that we have no idea if Luck is actually any good. Hell, even if he is there’s every chance he won’t have great numbers. Matt Stafford threw 13 touchdowns and 20 picks as a rookie.

The point is that Luck can have one of the 10 or 5 or even 3 best rookie QB seasons ever, and it still won’t justify the pick. You can kind of make a case for RGIII at the spot because of Cam Newton, but I’m not buying that either. Newton is a once-in-a-lifetime player who will probably never duplicate his numbers from last season anyway.

163

You make some very good points. But I do think Luck is a once a generation player, and I think that he could put up Peyton Manning rookie numbers, but even better because the NFL is much more a passing league now than it was when Peyton came out. In all likelihood, you’re right and I should have gone with a safer, low floor guy, but all I can say is I really like Andrew Luck. But I also really hope I don’t have to start him.

164

That kind of says it all. :slight_smile: If you’d taken him in the ninth round, I’d have no issue with it; he might justify a seventh-round pick next year.

165

I fixed the waiver doodad, so now players will go on waivers as soon as their games kick off and remain there until Tuesday. In the meantime, Dave picked up Kevin Ogletree, which I undid. Since some of you might not have bothered putting in a claim for him, we’re going to put Ogletree on “virtual waiver” until Friday morning. If you want to put in a claim for him, e-mail me or post here or the league thread.

Waiver order remains the reverse of the draft order for now, since nobody has put in an “official” claim. In the interests of fairness, I will not be putting in a claim for Ogletree, even though I have #1 priority.

ETA: for all other claims, just use the Yahoo! waiver system.

166

Late self review:

This is the first bad draft I’ve had in a few years. I’ve had others that weren’t great, but none with such glaring problems as this one. I should’ve taken a harder look at keepers and planned more for the scarcity of RBs.

  1. (10) Larry Fitzgerald
    (Ari - WR)

I don’t like this pick. I wanted to take a running back with my first round pick, but when the time came, I just didn’t like the available ones too much. The next 3 backs were MJD, Jamal Charles, and Mathews. MJD was still a holdout and I was worried about a CJ2K11 type season from him. Charles is super talented but enough of a recovery and workload risk that I wouldn’t want him #10 overall. Mathews was a real option here but I thought with everyone so down on him he might last until my 2.04 pick.

I don’t even like Fitzgerald that much, but he seemed like the clear BPA there.

  1. (19) Brandon Marshall
    (Chi - WR)

I was fairly confident that one of Mathews/MJD/Richardson would fall to me here, but I was wrong. All the top tier RBs are gone by this point - do I reach for someone like Turner/Jackson/Jackson or take a WR I think is going to finish the season top 5? I’ve already got my QB locked up, so between Marshall and those aforementioned RBs, I like Marshall.
3. (38) Matthew Stafford
(Det - QB)

Given how fast QBs went, this turned out to be a pretty decent spot for him.

  1. (47) Peyton Hillis
    (KC - RB)

I would’ve taken McGahee, Greene, or Reggie Bush here but they’d gone in the previous few picks. Now I’m desperate to get an RB. I think Hillis is really talented and Crennel and Daboll were going to underuse Charles, so I thought maybe he’d post viable starter numbers. Inconclusive at this point. I should’ve taken BJE here. The other options were guys like Johnathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Mark Ingram, Kevin Smith - I’m not sure I’d rather have any of them now.
5. (66) Vernon Davis
(SF - TE)

I’m high on Davis this year. I think SF improved at the WR position and that’ll open up the middle of the field, but Alex Smith still sucks and won’t consistently get the ball to them - a perfect recipe for more work for Davis. Finley had gone the pick before, and Davis was the last of the guys I really like at TE this year, so I decided to get him before a run started.

  1. (75) Jacquizz Rodgers
    (Atl - RB)

RBs are so scarce in this draft that the handcuff and sleeper type guys are already starting to go at this point. Ben Tate had just been taken, and Rodgers was the second best of that type of guy I think, so I felt like I had to take him here. Stevan Ridley went later in the round - oh well.

  1. (94) Kenny Britt
    (Ten - WR)

Now even the WRs are starting to dry up. I have 2 top starters in Fitzgerald and Marshall, so I can afford to take a gamble on a high upside WR3.

  1. (103) Greg Little
    (Cle - WR)

Lance Moore went a few picks later, but I figured Little was in for a lot of targets. WR is starting to get pretty sparse at this point.

  1. (122) Nate Washington
    (Ten - WR)

This has to be the least desired 1000 yard receiver who doesn’t have any obvious massive downside in fantasy history. Great value pick here.

  1. (131) Kendall Hunter
    (SF - RB)

Lottery ticket - Gore has to break down sometime, and I need to get lucky at RB.

  1. (150) Rueben Randle
    (NYG - WR)

NYG third WRs have been consistently worth owning.

  1. (159) Alfred Morris
    (Was - RB)

This was my ticket into the Shanahan fantasy minigame. I don’t like playing it, but I’ve been hearing about how good Morris was in training camp and how he’s just the sort of guy Shanahan will grab out of nowhere. He seemed like the lowest cost/highest upside pick of the bunch.

But even now, with the best case scenario - he gets almost all the carries, scores 2 TDs - I’m not really patting myself on the back about how clever I am, because for all I know that’ll be his last productive game of the year. The Shanahan thing is crazy. If anyone else is confident he’ll be the starter from here on out, I’m willing to trade him for a lower ceiling but higher floor RB.

  1. (178) Toby Gerhart
    (Min - RB)

This was a keeper and seemed like a good idea before Peterson decided he’s superhuman.

  1. (187) David Akers
    (SF - K)

Almost silly to keep a kicker, but it was with a very late pick and I think he has a good shot to repeat as top kicker.

  1. (206) Kansas City
    (KC - DEF)

Not a huge fan of KC, but they looked good late last season, and all the good defenses were gone.

  1. (215) Dustin Keller
    (NYJ - TE)

800 yards last year, not bad for a last round pick.

If I had gone with Ryan Mathews rather than Fitz, this would be a reasonably good team, but as it is I’m barely scraping by at RB. If Hillis can turn out to be a better Thomas Jones in KC and Morris stays starting, I may be alright.

I have decent keeper potential with Rodgers, Britt, Hunter, Randle, and Morris.

167

Want to trade Vernon Davis and Gerhart for Beanie Wells and Jermaine Gresham?

168

I’ll think about it but it’d be desperation - not high on Wells. Maybe see what happens this week.

If someone wants Fitz, I’ll move him for a low end RB1/high end RB2

169

I completely spaced on Ogletree. No Use For a Name had the highest waiver priority. I’m switching him out for Brian Quick but not putting him in your active lineup.

170

Dave, if you’re reading this, for some reason Ogletree was still on your roster after I removed him. I put Titus Young in your flex spot; let me know if you want someone else.

171

Wonder if I’ll break double digits before the afternoon games.

172

At 3:40 I’m sitting at -1.4 points.

173

Fitzgerald + Alfred Morris for an RB1. Anyone game?

174

I need a tight end, but I’m not sending you one of my starting RBs for one. I’ll part with Welker or V-Jax for a top TE, if anyone is interested.

175

ninja accept Jamal Charles trade

176

On my way to 3-0, barring the Packers’ offense remembering they are the Packers offense… which means there will be only one undefeated team after next week since I play Dave.

The incredible suckitude of my Big League and Dynasty teams is only mostly offset by the awesomeness of my HHM team.

177

I have never had a fantasy team perform as badly as this one has. It isn’t like this was an auto drafted scrub team either. I had the highest total point projection by Yahoo going into the season. And yet this makes two straight weeks I have not gotten a single TD from my RBs, WRs, or TE. I didn’t even get one from my All-World QB this week. But I guess I haven’t yet lost anyone for the season, so there are new depths to be experienced.

178

I think the suckiness of your team can be summed up thusly: I got negative points from Philip Rivers and still beat you by 50.

179

Well, it’s impossible to win when you get zero TDs from your offense and haven’t yet scored more than 6 from your defense. But, predictably, opposing defenses have scored 22, 13, and 32 against me.

180

I’m not in last!

Wheeee

181

Fourth week in a row I’m favored over my opponent. Congratulations on your win Munch.