He Hate Me FF keeper league - Year 10

The Game Room
142

The Good: well, Arian Foster and Gronk are the #1 players at their positions. He’s got Miles Austin, who always has the potential to be a #1-type player at his position. He’s got Titus Young, who could produce #1 numbers in that offense. Boldin has the highest floor of anyone you could have in the sixth round. I don’t know if your strategy was affected by losing Austin as a keeper at the last minute (and sorry about that), but if so you recovered well.

The Okay: Doug Martin certainly won’t be terrible, but he certainly won’t be great. I think you overpaid for him, but not by much.

The Bad: even if he pans out, RGIII is a #2 fantasy quarterback this year. Dalton had an all-time-great rookie season for a QB last year and had only 3,400 yards and 20 TDs. You could have had Big Ben or Philip Rivers at that spot (though I’m glad you didn’t) and you took a questionmark.

143

The Good: I like this team much better. It’s got style. It’s got grace. It’s got balance. For some reason, I really like Santonio Holmes and Michael Crabtree as high-floor #3s.

The Bad: on the other hand, it’s got two Ravens offensive players, and they’re not exactly a juggernaut. Kevin Smith is a Rotowire darling, but they keep saying things like “he’ll be an RB1 on a per game basis” because, well, he’s not going to play many games. Behind 24K, your backup running backs might not total 200 carries between them.

144

The Good: well, Aaron Rodgers is the best in the game. So there’s that. Jordy Nelson ain’t bad either, especially in the 8th round. I traded Percy Harvin away last year right before he caught fire. Demaryius Thomas has #1 potential. Jason Witten is looking like a smart gamble, as he’s suited up for the Giants game. Russell Wilson is everyone’s sleeper rookie QB.

The Bad: Ahmad Bradshaw won’t start 16 games, and the rest of these backs won’t start three combined. We start two, so that’s bad. Even if Wilson matches Andy Dalton’s superb rookie year, he still won’t be worth keeping in the seventh next season.

145

The Good: furt’s teams always underwhelm me, then make me look silly. And, he drafted enough running backs! This team looks solid, so it will presumably be superb by year’s end. LeSean McCoy is, for me, the second best fantasy RB. Ridley could put up ridiculous numbers in the Pats’ pinball offense. Jon Baldwin has massive potential and was cheap. Wilson just might be worth keeping if everything goes as expected with Bradshaw.

The Bad: Belichick hasn’t had given an RB lots of carries since Corey Dillon retired, so Ridley could put up a bunch of tiny stat lines. Wallace does one thing, and probably won’t do it that well with lots of offseason rust to clean off. KC doesn’t have enough of a passing game to make Bowe and Baldwin bona fide starters, so depth at WR is a serious concern.

146

The Good: lots of running backs, and this team didn’t have to compromise on WR depth thanks to value on the Wayne/Garcon selections. Great QB, obviously. Big question mark at TE, but you can’t have everything. Crosby is as close to a sure thing as it gets.

The Bad: all those running backs are older than me, except LeShoure who will be in prison by season’s end. And Turbin, who’s more of a “next year” kind of guy. Atlanta’s defense wasn’t great last year and got worse in the offseason, so I hope you plan on streaming defenses.

147

The Good: another team with enough running backs. Jackson is great value in the fifth, and Dez Bryant has the tools to be in Megatron’s league. Cutler and Fitzpatrick could both end up as top 10 quarterbacks, and came awful cheap. Handcuffing Chris Johnson was a wise move.

The Bad: you really, really need elite production at QB to win at fantasy nowadays, and it’s possible that neither of your guys pans out. I also don’t care for the Stewart pick; he’s already hurt, and he’s kind of dependent on scores in non-PPR leagues. Beyond that, there’s just something meh about this team, but I can’t put my finger on why.

148

Considering this is a keeper league, I’m really hoping that two of Turbin, Jeffery, Jean and LeShoure become 3 year values. Did a bad job of this last year, and if I can get into the dance this year somehow while adding a couple super keepers it’s a great draft.

149

I like Holmes & Crabtree at those spots, too, especially since they are really WR4’s in my plan (I remain a Denarius Moore believer) but are also insurance against Moore disappointing with Raider Syndrome.

I am a Raven’s No-Huddle believer (at least when it comes to fanasy). I expect it to provide 6-10 extra snaps per game and create tired defenders in Q4. Of course, it remains teh Ravens so I admit to risk.

Can’t argue with you about my RB situation. The way things fell out, the trade to end of round 5 really put me in a box at pick 4. I was sure all of the top tier TE would be off the board before 5.14, and as an every game scoring option I valued Gates (who I love this year, in direct proportion to my disdain for the Chargers remaining WR corps) over any of the backs left on the board at 4.8 I sure do with DeAngello had fallen a few more spots, though. And by season;s end I might be wishing I had gambled on Ryan Williams instead. This was the pick that worried me most as I clicked the button.

Thanks for the recap - I always love these. Will try to do my own this weekend.

150

The Good: Megatron, obviously. Steve Johnson is bizarrely undervalued this year, and he’s about as good a #2 as you could have. Buffalo’s defense has a chance to be dominant. Ingram might catch on as the Saints’ bell-cow this year, and if so he’s a steal in round 5. Shonn Greene is also kind of undervalued; he ran for a thousand yards and a handful of touchdowns last year, and he’s surely good for at least that again. If Sproles can reprise last year’s numbers, you’ll be laughing. Martellus Bennett is a sneaky pick as Eli turns the blockingest of tight ends into startable assets. Cam Newton is the ultimate risk/reward play, but in round 6 he’s a dream keeper.

The Bad: Trent Richardson might as well be running at 30-yard-wide walls all season. He’s not worth a second-rounder. Daniel Thomas probably won’t even be the 'phins #2 back by season’s end, and even if he is who gives a shit?

151

The Good: this looks like a team I’d draft. Ridiculously deep up the middle. I think Doug Baldwin is a phenomenal prospect.

The Bad: this looks like a team I’d draft. Your wide receivers are backups and lottery tickets. I think Doug Baldwin is a phenomenal long-term prospect. You really, really ought to trade a Bush or a Brown for a plausible starting wideout.

152

The Good: nicely balanced. No obvious holes here. If Victor Cruz is even 75% of the player he was last year, this is probably the best WR corps in the league. Finley’s stats are sure to improve this year just based on regression to the mean, though his stone hands might permanently cap his production.

The Bad: no real superstars either. Greg Jennings is kind of overrated; astronomically high floor, but low-ish floor. Benson seems like great value assuming he’s locked up the Packers RB job, but the Packers were near the bottom of the league in rushing last year and that doesn’t seem likely to change. Redman might not be starting beyond week 1. Brandon Jackson is worthless as anything other than an injury flier.

153

The Good: well, this might be a better 1-2 WR punch than Wilson’s. I love Vernon Davis’ value as a second tier TE with a high floor. Nate Washington should be going much higher than he is regardless of whether Kenny Britt is in jail. Britt has top 10 potential and is a steal in round 7. Stafford is the fourth-best QB and he’s a great value as a third round keeper. Gerhart might save your team if AP doesn’t get healthy or aggravates his injury… on which more below.

The Bad: your running backs are historically bad. Peyton Hillis might not be more than a goal line guy, Rodgers is a year away from being more than a flex, and Kendall Hunter needs Gore to go down to be more than a bye-week replacement. Alfred Morris will surely start a game or two, because it’s the Redskins, but because it’s the Redskins he won’t do more than that. If you need Toby Gerhart to start, you’re in big trouble.

154

The Good: Hamlet’s teams always look good out of the gate, and this one is no exception. The gamble on Jones-Drew looks to have worked out, and even if it didn’t you have a credible RB pairing with McFadden and McGahee. Roddy White is still the man in Atlanta. Vick is as underrated this season as he was overrated last season. If nothing else, his rushing touchdown number will go up. Meachem and Cobb both have awesome potential, though I think you could have had Cobb a few rounds later. I like Lamar Miller’s value where you got him.

The Bad: You’re not going to keep Andrew Luck in the third, so you have to value him on a one-year basis. Is he going to be better than Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler or Ben Roethlisberger this season? Fuck no, but you could have had any of them instead. With Vick as your #1, that could ruin your season. Not really sure what the Eddie Royal thing was about.

155

The Good: Fred Jackson is one of those guys that people should stop betting against. Julio Jones as a fourth round keeper makes much more sense than the second round picks people are throwing at him, and AJ Green is a legit steal. Matt Schaub is a terrific value in round 7. Stephen Hill is a phenomenal keeper prospect, and Randy Moss is a perfect lottery ticket pick. Mario Manningham seemed to be on the way to stardom until last year, and he could turn into a 1,000 yard receiver in SF.

The Bad: I don’t like Charles in the first round. Running backs take more than a season to recover from ACL injuries, and some never do. Have a look at Edgerrin James’ numbers pre-and post-ACL tear. Ben Tate seems like kind of a luxury pick, considering you spent your first three picks on backs. On the other hand, if you’re going to draft someone’s #2 RB, he’s the guy to have. Defenses just shouldn’t be drafted in the ninth round, even this one. If you’d taken one of the star TEs or a second-tier QB with that first rounder - or even the second rounder - you’d have the best-rounded team in the league. Even so, this one is pretty damn good.

156

That was the plan up until the point they were kept as keepers, each in like the 47th round.

157

Fair enough - though you could have had Vick, Peyton, or Rivers.

The Good: two quality quarterbacks, and I think Big Ben will end up being valuable trade bait for you since Ryan doesn’t really need to be platooned. Smith/Brown/Heyward-Bey is a solid WR corps.

The Bad: not much else to like here. No obvious holes, though I wouldn’t be comfortable with Bush as my #2 RB. I think you overpaid a bit for Hernandez considering Gates, Davis and Finley were available a round or more later.

158

The good: a top three running back and a top three wideout. Vincent Jackson is rather good as third options go. Philip Rivers had his worst season in five years last year and was still the ninth ranked QB in this format; this year I got him 38 picks later than last. If Mendenhall makes any kind of recovery he’ll be a top 10 back at a fifth round price next year. Same goes for Jahvid Best, with much more risk and much less risked.

The bad: with Welker, V-Jax and Lynch as keepers in rounds 3, 4 and 8, I should have come out of this draft with more studs. Instead, I ended up with a whole bunch of safe production, tempered by injury risks. I didn’t want to take a WR in the first round, but there wasn’t anything else there I wanted. Same with Peterson, which goes double since I knew Gerhart wasn’t available. Peterson also goes directly against my core philosophy, which is to draft safe production in the early rounds. Best is nothing more than a lottery ticket; I think he’ll return, but I doubt it will happen this year.

159

Grades!

In reviewing these, it looks like I graded down heavily for teams which had glaring holes, and graded up heavily for teams which were solid throughout. I think my rationale is that you have to give up a stud to fill a big hole via trade, and you’ll never get equal value back.

I also didn’t take keepers into account in terms of grading; I just looked at everyone’s roster. Too much balancing to “curve” based on who had good keepers. Plus, that’s part of the draft (doing a good job the year before, that is).

T1. Moridwon (Hamlet): A. Aside from completely wasting your fifth round pick, this team is good everywhere. It’s not great anywhere except RB, but it’s still one of my two favorite rosters here.

T1. Off Constantly: A. If you had a better TE, you wouldn’t have to share the top grade with Hamlet. But… you don’t, so you do.

3. Omni’s Omnipotents: A-. Or TE. You can suck there, too. Great QB, good WRs, solid RBs.

4. Fourth & Nineteen: B+. I want to dislike this team, because I personally wouldn’t draft almost anyone on it. Can’t grade it down for that, though.

5. Spiritus Mundane: B. Sacrificed any semblance of a bench for quality starters, and as long as everyone’s healthy that’s okay.

T6. 9 Inch Neils (RNATB): B-. This is a pretty good team, but it should have been better with that much value at the keeper spots. Some of that is down to draft position, though. Gresham’s kind of a marginal TE unless he takes a step forward; I think he will, but it’s no lock.

T6. Varlos’ Zzzzzzz: B-. No holes, but nothing to write home about.

T8. Fightin’ Quakers: C+. If you’re going to be scrambling at a position, WR is the spot to do it because the league is so deep now. Questionmarks about Manning and the lack of a viable backup QB keep this team from an A-.

T8. HungryHungryHaruspex: C+. I had this team as a B- until I saw Witten play tonight. He looked fucking awful, though maybe that will change as the rust comes off. With holes at TE and RB I can’t justify that grade now.

T8. Crabby Hermits: C+. Ho-hum. Not bad considering your draft spot, but I shudder to think what it would have looked like without Brown and Smith as keepers.

11. No Use For A Name: C. No holes, but no stars, and much depends on how Cedric Benson produces.

T12. Baltimore Weirdos: D+. I most things about this team, but not enough to overcome the awful, terrible, no-good quarterbacks.

T12. DrewBrees’sBirthmark: D+. When I said you could scramble at WR, I didn’t mean this much. I like the rest of the team, but those WRs are cover-your-eyes awful.

14. Exploding Pancakes: D. I look at the quality QB and TE and insane wideout depth, and I want to give this team a good grade, but you can only start two of them. You also have to start two RBs, and you only have marginal bench players there. This team could look really good really fast with a couple of judicious trades, but right now… ugh.

160

Kiss o’ death.

I hate having Vick on my team. I think it was a smart pick, with his upside he’s worth a 4th rounder in a 14 team league, but I’ve never owned him and I don’t like him. So I reached to grab a backup that I really like. I think Luck is the real deal and he will have to throw a ton with that poor Indy defense. That said, it was kinda a panic pick, because I do not like the uncertainty of relying on Vick.

I really doubt I would keep any of those three for next year either. But if Luck is as advertised, I may keep him. That was my tiebreaker (or rationalization if you like), Luck I may keep next year, the others I’m pretty sure I won’t. But you are right, my huge glaring weakness is at QB.

I took Meacham (another guy I don’t like but thought was too good value), and if he goes down, I think Royal’s numbers go up. With Floyd often hurt, Vincent Brown down for at least 8 games, I think Royal will have the opportunity (maybe not the skill level) to make a bit of noise. It was between him and my super, super sleeper keeper (who is still on the waiver wire) Greg Salas, and because of Meacham, I went with Royal.

Thanks for the review, and generous grade.

161

I originally ordered these in draft order, so this was after this:

I just now noticed that it doesn’t make any sense where it is now.