That’s pretty impressive considering that we can’t keep anyone drafted in rounds 1-3.
Effectively, the only 1st-round caliber guys who we can keep tend to be rookies who aren’t running backs or running backs who win a starting job a few years in. Most of the top running backs are never valid keepers; either they’re 1st/2nd/3rd round draft picks right off the bat, or they come out of nowhere (and are unkeepable since they get picked up from waivers), like Ryan Grant.
I’m a dope. I accidentally traded into the front half of Round 4 even though I’m using my 4th Rounder to keep Roddy White.
I have the 4th pick in Round 4 and the 11th pick in Round 5. Does anyone who’s towards the end of R4 and the start of R5 want to swap picks with me in those two rounds?
That went really well last night everyone. Good work.
I’m slightly aprehensive about my team. I probably should have taken Brandon Jacobs with my first pick, but that week 10 bye week made me nervous (Slaton is Week 10 as well), I was crapping myself because Fitz almost fell to me, etc. However, one of my main fantasy sites is extremely excited about Moss this year, projecting him into the Top 5 (not of WRs, of all players). We’ll see. I had the flexibility last night of being able to take a few chances. We’ll see how a tandem of Julius Jones/Fred Taylor does as my RB2 until Donald Brown endears himself to the Colts (and Addai pisses everyone off) and/or the exact same thing happens with Charles in KC.
Crap, my post got deleted.
** Keepers:**
Calvin Johnson (Rd 3)
Steve Slaton (Rd 4)
Matt Ryan (Rd 12)
Round 1: Randy Moss. I almost crapped myself when Fitz made it to the pick before this one. However, I’m happy with Moss - I see him with huge projections on a lot of charts, and I have the WR depth to absorb any sort of decline (which I absolutely don’t anticipate). I might have taken Jacobs if it wasn’t for sharing a bye week with Slaton. I can’t really punt a week, since I have two other starters locked in with different byes in Megatron and Matt Ryan.
Round 2: Reggie Wayne. I was pretty unhappy with the RB talent left on the board at this point. This is a bit of a reach, going for a third WR in Round 2… However, with the number of RBBCs in the NFL these days, WRs are going to increase in value - and now that I have three top starters, that makes the pool for everyone else that much weaker.
Round 3: Calvin Johnson (keeper). Stafford may have some questions surrounding him, but Megatron will still end up with at least 10 TDs and 1200+ yards.
Round 4: Steve Slaton (keeper). One of the few starting RBs these days not in a RBBC situation. I like the Houston offense, and think their defense is to a point where they don’t have to air it out every single possession.
Round 5: Donald Brown. I love having an early 5th round pick, since it’s really the first time to think about drafting a potential keeper. Brown may end up with up to half the workload in Indy, and probably get the the lionshare of the important yardage over Addai. We’ll see.
Round 6: Julius Jones. I’m not thrilled with this pick, but I needed to round out my RB talent, and Jones is still projected to be the starter (even though he’s in a threeway RBBC at this point). Could be a great pick, could bust - but at least I’m focusing on getting some depth at a position I’m current weak at.
Round 7: Jamaal Charles. See my Donald Brown comments, add in the fact that the entire city of Kansas City hates the starter in front of him, and then add on two rounds of keeper potential.
Round 8: Jay Cutler. I’m sorry - did I see people taking kickers before Cutler was off the board?! I find that perplexing. If Hester can figure out how to catch the ball 80 yards down the field running approximately 75mph, and if Forte starts catching the ball out of the backfield within the 10, and the Olsen/Cutler relationship has been consumated as much as the media suggests, Cutler is a Top 5 QB this year.
Round 9: Fred Taylor. Not a lot of keeper potential here, but he is the starter, and he always has gas left in the tank. I don’t see Maroney taking many goal line carries from him - and since I have Moss, I should be getting the majority of the Patriot TDs this year.
Round 10: Chris Chambers. I needed an extra WR that wasn’t total speculation at this point. We were in the midst of a kicker rin, and he stood out. Chambers won’t be a stud or anything, but he’ll be a decent fill-in if I need it.
Round 11: Mark Sanchez. I really like the keeper potential. I had the roster space for a third QB, and he may prove to be trade bait if someone else’s QB goes down (or if someone sliding down the standings wants to look to the future).
Round 12: Matt Ryan (keeper). I was never convinced in the off-season that Ryan would be a great fantasy starter. He’s great value here even if he was going to be just average - but people are really talking him up. It’ll be tough deciding between him and Cutler this year, but that’s not a bad problem to have.
Round 13: San Diego. They get six games against JaMarcus Russell, Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton. If Merriman’s Merry Men can stay out of trouble and stop beating up bad reality show stars, this is good value.
Round 14: Brent Celek. My TE sleeper. McNabb loves short targets, and I see Westbrook sharing the load a bit more. Plus, he looks funny.
Round 15: Chris Brown. I was extremely happy to see him available here. Because Slaton’s not in a RBBC, Brown as a handcuff becomes more important - and his value is less because he’s a true backup.
Round 16: Neil Rackers. I had to draft a kicker. He was in the top 5 of my cheatsheet, and I didn’t have to burn a 7th rounder on him.
That would be me, I assume. I was sick all weekend and didn’t make the draft, in fact didn’t get to do pre-rankings. I wish I could have taken up SenorBeef on his offer…
I’m afraid to look at my roster, which will have to wait till I get home from work… if someone wants to torment me and post it here, I’ll be grateful. Or despondent.
Moridwon (Hamlet)
(1) Adrian Peterson - No-brainer. Not going to light the world on fire, because he doesn’t score touchdowns- but I’ll take a 2,000 yard, 12 TD season over a 1,200 yard 20 TD season. Incredibly consistent, and with a first round pick that’s what you want.
(28) Joseph Addai - Big reach. Obviously has #2 RB talent, but didn’t whelm* anyone last year and might not even keep his starting job and/or reps this year with first-rounder Donald Brown waiting in the wings. Personally, I can’t justify that kind of risk for a second-round draft choice.
(29) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Question marks abound here. Seattle’s offense is stuffed with proven talent, but all of it is damaged goods, except Whosyourmama. The problem is that a wide receiver is only as good as his quarterback- especially a possession receiver- and Matt Hasselbeck might never be the same guy. On the other hand, all the other wideouts available at this point were equally risky, so on balance I like the pick.
(56) Carson Palmer - More high-risk stuff. Looks like a reach until you consider that the next best quarterback available was Hasselbeck. If he’s healthy, he’s money.
(57) Beanie Wells - Super pick. Will probably get 40% of the reps even if he doesn’t win the starting job, and could be superb with defenses keying on the pass. On the other hand, neither Edge nor Tim Hightower were particularly impressive with that help; sometimes passing just doesn’t set up the run (see 2007 Patriots).
(84) Matt Hasselbeck - bit early to take a second quarterback, since he didn’t even have a #2 WR or #3 RB. However, between Hasselbeck and Palmer, one ought to have a big year.
(85) Chester Taylor - I don’t generally like handcuffing; I’d much rather take a guy who will definitely start over a guy who will probably start if my guy goes down; but Taylor is the unquestioned #2 and is one of few worthwhile handcuff options.
(112) Laveranues Coles - looked old and slow in New York. Might lose his starting job to Chris Henry this year. Oh well, it’s a 14-team league. You’re gonna have holes somewhere.
(113) Josh Morgan - the worst-kept secret in fantasy football. Morgan has been touted as the top sleeper pick by just about every prognosticator, so he’s bound to fail miserably. On the other hand, sometimes the talking heads get it right- see Steve Slaton.
(140) Jeremy Shockey - hard to call a 10th round pick “high risk”, but Shockey is. The problem is that he’s just so enticing; a former multiple Pro Bowl guy playing in the league’s best passing offense, and you might be forced to keep him in the lineup waiting for that 100 yard, 2 touchdown game that you’re sure is in him. That can cost you big points.
(141) Green Bay - I hate this pick. Too early for a defense not from the AFC North, and not a good one to pick anyway. On the other hand, it’s a homer pick, and they will probably have lots of opportunities for picks and sacks.
(168) Davone Bess - You son of a bitch. You stole Bess from me in two leagues? I love this pick with all my heart and several other organs. Bess put up 400+ yards in the last seven weeks of 2008, and might be a household name by the first week of 2009.
(169) Mason Crosby - I know Crosby puts up lots of points, but I just can’t trust a kicker in Wisconsin weather. Also, too early. Neither you nor anyone else has a clue who the top kickers will be.
(196) Vernon Davis - More risk/reward stuff. Chance of reward here not good, but Davis will at least see lots of playing time because he’s a terrific blocker.
(197) Chaz Schilens - I know he’s a darling of the sleeper-seekers, but how good could anyone be with Jamarcus Russell throwing to him?
(224) Ladell Betts - Best pick you made. Betts is just one not-highly-unlikely Clinton Portis injury away from a 1,000 yard season. Might also be one season away from getting the starting nod himself, with Portis due a huge bonus next season.
Score: 6/10. Taking into account that you didn’t keep anyone, you get a 8/10, but that’s your own damn fault, so 6 it is.
What’s your team name?
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz
(2) Maurice Jones-Drew - In a not-really-banner year for picks 2-5, this isn’t a bad choice. MJD will see a lot of carries and a lot of receptions. Problem: his offensive line wasn’t particularly good before everyone got hurt last year, and David Garrard isn’t going to keep defenses from stacking the box. I would have taken Turner, schedule and all.
(27) Thomas Jones - Hard to imagine Jones matching his career-best production from last year, especially with a rookie at quarterback and Leon Washington and Shonn Greene nipping at his heels. Plus, he’s over thirty. However, he was the best back available, and with (effectively) a three-back system is almost makes sense to go RB-RB regardless of the flow of the draft.
(30) Vincent Jackson - Ugh. The super-sleeper of 2007, he actually showed up in 2008. Problem: for such a big guy, he doesn’t seem to be willing or able to run short routes and/or go over the middle, which limits him to the big play. If he’s more consistent this year he’ll be a viable #1. Otherwise, he’ll lose you a couple of games.
(46) Roddy White - Well, he’s definitely the best #2 wideout in the league ;).
(67) Felix Jones - not bad as a #3 option, though it’s tricky to predict how many touches he’ll see with Tashard Choice emerging last year. You better hope they let him return some kicks and punts.
(82) Aaron Rodgers - I hate you. Might be the highest-scoring player in all of fantasy this year. It’s hard for a quarterback who has a monster touchdown-throwing season to repeat- see Warner, Manning, Marino- but it’s unusual for a big-yardage guy to see a significant downturn. Expect Rodgers to throw for 4k yards again plus 30+ touchdowns.
(87) Torry Holt - I wanted to take him badly here but you did first. Not much of a high ceiling, but a very high floor (for a #3 wideout, anyway). Guarantees you 750 yards, might give you 1,200.
(100) Ted Ginn Jr. - Good ol’ Ted is the anti-Holt. Guarantees you nothing, might give you 1,000 yards. Don’t bank on it; he’s not even the second-best wideout on Miami’s roster.
(125) Dustin Keller - Overhyped. Wayyy overhyped. On the other hand, rookies do like tight ends, and pickings were pretty slim by this point.
(139) Leon Washington - Washington and Jones might be one of only five or six pairs of running backs who you can start simultaneously (from the same team, that is). Super-duper-awesome upside, but you kind of need Jones to take a dive for Washington to reach his potential.
(142) Jake Delhomme - Yeah, he sucked last year, but he was pretty good before that. On the other hand, he hadn’t had Tommy John surgery before that. Jakey is older than you’d think (34) and might never recover. Should be good early on, though.
(156) Jerome Harrison - Sooner or later, Jamal Lewis’ remaining wheel will come off. The problem is that Harrison might not be the primary beneficiary.
(181) Matt Leinart - I do not like Leinart. I don’t think he’s got what it takes to succeed in the NFL. On the other hand, I have been confidently predicting that Kurt Warner will not make it through another full season, and whoever gets to throw to Fitz and Boldin should put up decent numbers.
(195) Carolina - even Carolina isn’t picking Carolina right now. Injuries to Maake Kemoeatu and the teams better two linebackers- plus the loss of Ken Lucas in free agency- make the Panthers defense an iffy starter.
(198) Mario Manningham - somebody has to show up for the Giants, and it might as well be Manningham.
(223) Danny Ware - You know the Giants’ running game is good when people draft their #3 back, who isn’t even likely to keep that job next year when Andre Brown returns.
Score: 5 and a half/10. I don’t like your runners, defense, or tight end. I like your quarterback and receivers a lot. Bonus half-point for not drafting a kicker.
Fourth and Nineteen:
Could someone post the whole draft as displayed in the yahoo draft results page? I’m curious.
Thanks, Munch.
Well, that’s an interesting team, certainly not the way I would have drafted… OK everywhere except quite weak in the RB depth department. Not much keeper potential, perhaps Bradley or Graham if they have a breakout year.
If anybody wants one of my TEs, Ks or DEFs, let me know.
DeAngelo Williams as a third round pick is nuts.
Omni’s Omnipotents
(3) Matt Forte - No, no, no. Cutler doesn’t pass to running backs, and Forte’s actual rushing numbers were fairly pedestrian last year (averaged under 4 yards per carry). On the other hand, will carry the ball a million times, and Cutler will probably keep defenses from keying on the run. Still don’t think that will offset the loss of receiving yardage.
(26) Marques Colston - Yes, yes, yes. Has trouble staying healthy, but is always hurting different body parts, which is a good thing, sort of. Monster potential, high floor.
(31) Chad Ochocinco - Of course, you have the luxury of picking another wideout because you have Chris Johnson coming as a 5th-rounder. Tweety Bird was clearly the best player available here with Roy Williams injured.
(54) Darren McFadden - I do not like McFadden. Not one bit. However, can’t argue with a starting tailback in the fourth round.
(70) Chris Johnson - Bah. I actually don’t like Johnson much either; he’s a bit one-dimensional, and I think defenses will do a better job shutting him down this year. Still, can’t argue with a starting tailback in the fifth round, etc.
(71) Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is a bit of an enigma. The Jets apparently think he can be a true number 1, because they let Lavernues Coles go. I’m not so sure, but since the other starter has three career catches Crotchery is likely to see a lot of balls throw his way.
(98) Philip Rivers - Bah.
(99) Ahmad Bradshaw - Excellent pick. Bradshaw is under 200 pounds, and I don’t think he can handle as many carries as Derrick Ward did last year. However, he’ll probably still return some punts and stuff, and 750 rushing yards isn’t out of the question. Good spot starter at any rate.
(115) Michael Crabtree - don’t like this pick. I did like Crabtree in the NFL draft, but players who miss camp do not make an impact. Does anyone really think Crabtree will show enough in his first season to justify keeping him next year?
(138) Matthew Stafford - Presumably, the logic behind this pick is “keeping the guy who will be throwing to Calvin Johnson”. Difficult to argue with, really.
(151) Greg Olsen - Terrific upside, but not a very high floor. Hasn’t actually done anything yet.
(158) Laurence Maroney - smart pick. Maroney is theoretically the best running back on the Pats’ roster. Of course, Maroney is in practice the most useless Patriots first round pick of the Belichick era.
(171) Chris Henry
(194) Chris Henry } okay, that was funny. Like the first pick. No idea who the Tennessee Chris Henry is.
(199) Miami - bit of a surprise pick, especially given their schedule, but Jason Taylor ought to be pretty handy rushing the passer opposite Joey Porter.
(211) Jason Elam - he’s still alive?
Score: 8/10. I don’t like your team. However, objectively, it’s very, very good.
Here you go, SB:
Moridwon (Hamlet)
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz
Omni’s Omnipotents
Crabby Hermits
New York Fanboys
Spiritus Mundane
RealCarmenOfGenius
Fightin’ Quakers
9 Inch Neils (RNATB)
Fourth & Nineteen
Off Constantly
Quentin’s JAMmers
DrewBrees’Birthmark
Baltimore Weirdos
Obviously a keeper from last year - to be honest, I’m not as high on him this year as many are, but hey, he’s certainly worth a third rounder.
And after some quick reading - does Justin Fargas really have a part of the Raiders RB picture? If so, that’s not a bad pick for the 14th round.
He got a starting-money contract extension last year and got the lion’s share of the carries early on with McFadden out, but I think it’s clear that both McFadden and Michael Bush are better backs.
Shopping Eli if anyone is interested. Would prefer a RB.
Might as well start at the beginning:
Moridwon (Hamlet)
Note: When you know you have to start your draft review with a Note: you’re not doing so well. My draft strategy this year was to go for broke and make this league fun for me. So I took a lot of risks, played for more keepers, and went homer. This doesn’t mean I don’t like my team, I do. But I think I’ll need some luck to make the playoffs.
Best Pick: I like my late round WRs. I had four guys targeted, and got three of them. Bess, Schilens, and Morgan all have a fair amount of potential. If just one makes the leap, I’ll finally have a keeper.
Worst Pick: Joseph Addai/TJ Houshmanzadah. Picking first this year blows. The talent pool at the back end of the second/top end of third, was shit. My decison basically came down to Addai/Larry Johnson/Marshawn Lynch and TJ/Ochocinco/Roy Williams. No matter who I took there, it was going to be a risk and a reach. I think Addai, if he stays healthy, will have a good year, as will TJ if Hasselback stays healthy. But I’m not thrilled having either guy.
Strengths: I like my depth. I got my #1 handcuffed, I got Beanie and Betts in the wings, and a lot of potential on the bench. I also like adding the Packers D and Mason Crosby because … well it makes it more fun for me watching games. And this year, that was my goal
Weaknesses: It’s just potential. Outside of AD, I have nobody who is a sure thing.
Overall: With AD, I’ll always have a chance, but so much of my team comes down to injuries and risks. Palmer and Hasselback are both coming off of major injury problems, Beanie is seemingly always injured (but damn, when he’s healthy…), and Shockey/Vernon Davis are nothing but risk. Still, if my team stays healthy, I think I’ll have a shot at the playoffs. But that’s a big if.
Crabby Hermits
(4) Michael Turner - Butt pat for you. Great pick. The only thing I don’t like about Turner is that he can’t catch, so if he gets shut down in the running game there’s not much chance of getting points from him anyway. However, he’s a beast in the running game, and I’m not worried about the Curse of 370.
(25) Terrell Owens - Bit early for a banged-up drama queen who’s on the downside of 35 and plays with a mediocre (at best) quarterback.
(32) Marshawn Lynch - Boy, you better hope you get Fred Jackson.
(53) Ben Roethlisberger - This seems like a huge reach; I took Big Ben in the ninth round of a 12-team seasonal draft on Saturday, and Eli, who produces similar offensive statistics, stuck around for four more rounds.
(60) Santana Moss - This, on the other hand, is a good value pick, although Moss never puts together back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and is due for a down year.
(81) Donald Driver - Getting old, and at risk of losing his starting job, apparently. Still good though.
(88) Domenik Hixon - This is the Giants starter I didn’t want. Hixon is a little guy who only catches deep passes, which is hard to do in windy Giants Stadium.
(109) Visanthe Shiancoe - Solid player, solid pick. Plus, famous Johnson!
(116) Devin Hester - Good value at this spot. Wouldn’t have drafted him any higher, personally.
(137) Ricky Williams - Solid bye-week replacement, with #2 potential if Ronnie Brown goes down.
(144) Limas Sweed - Couldn’t beat out Nate Washington for the #3 spot, and doesn’t seem to have actually caught any passes yet. Think he might be a bust.
(165) Michael Vick - interesting pick. An awful lot would have to happen for him to be worth anything- first, for McNabb to get hurt/benched (not impossible), and second, for Vick to learn the offense and remember how to play football (not likely, from what he showed in the preseason).
(172) Ryan Longwell - In theory, the Vikings should have a good yardage offense but iffy red zone offense. Good news for Longwell. Bad news for Longwell- their red zone offense might be iffy because Favre throws to the other team when they get there.
(193) New England - Should have lots of opportunities for picks and sacks with the offense scoring a lot. Won’t give you a lot of points for yardage allowed.
(200) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Will probably start a game at some point this year. Still, just not enough carries for anyone in the Pats’ backfield to be worth anything yet.
(221) Mewelde Moore - No idea why you’d want the #3 back on a team that wasn’t particularly effective running the ball last year.
Score: 3/10. Huge hole at running back, boom-or-bust wideouts, bad quarterback situation.
Up next:
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz
Best pick: Keepers, especially Aaron Rodgers. And I like MJD this year. Good pick.
Worst Pick: Thomas Jones/Vincent Jackson. Again, it’s the shitty talent at the end of the second/start of the third round. Jones had a good year last year, and has a pretty good O Line in front of him, but he has a rookie QB, a game breaker in the wings, and is getting older. And, although you got Leon later, they are more of a RBBC, than a starter/backup. And I think VJ is one of the most overrated guys in fantasy football now.
Strengths: Studs. With Rodgers, Jones Drew, and Roddy White lining up every Sunday, you’ll have a chance.
Weaknesses: A lot of garbage. This is, of course, completely subjective. But Ted Ginn, Harrison, Leinart, Carolina, and Ware do absolutely nothing for me, even as keepers. I think Manningham has a chance to succeed, but not until the later half of the year, and Delhomme could return to form, but he’s never going to start for you. And no kicker. Someone is going to get dropped before week one, why not just draft one you like.
Overall: He’ll compete each and every week, and can put up some serious numbers with his big 3. I’m not sold on the rest of his roster though. If all it takes is 3, though (in a 14 team league it may be enough), he’ll be in the playoffs.