He Hate Me FF keeper league - yr 7

The Game Room
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Posted that first round before including this section where I rationalize my own picks.

My Pick: Matt Forte
Once I settled in to prepare for this draft a few weeks ago and saw that I was picking 3rd I knew Forte would end up as my guy. Since I had him last season with my 3rd rounder he feels almost like an additional keeper. I took a few minutes to compare the top RBs available to see if I was making a mistake or being too heavily swayed by my fandom and I didn’t see any reason to change. I think he’s a safer pick than MJD, especially after that preseason leg injury, and with the curse of 370 looming Turner wasn’t too hard to pass on. I’m relying on DeAngelo Williams in the All-Pro league so this offers some variety. In a PPR league the choice would have been clearer, but I’ve very happy with what I got and between the continuity from last season He Hate Me team and being a Bears fan he’s just too perfect a fit. Serendipity it is. The Kevin Jones injury and his preseason performance do nothing but increase my confidence in him and I strongly believe that the Cutler addition will dramatically increase that YPC average and the number of TDs he scores.


Round 2. ****       
1. **Peyton Manning **       Baltimore Weirdos
2. **Andre Johnson **       DrewBrees'Birthmark
3. **Kevin Smith **       Quentin's JAMmers
4. **Reggie Wayne **       Off Constantly
5. **Steve Smith **       Fourth & Nineteen
6. **Marion Barber **       9 Inch Neils (RNATB)
7. **Ronnie Brown **       Fightin' Quakers
8. **Ryan Grant **       RealCarmenOfGenius
9. **Greg Jennings **       Spiritus Mundane
10. **Anquan Boldin **       New York Fanboys
11. **Terrell Owens **       Crabby Hermits
12. **Marques Colston **       Omni's Omnipotents
13. **Thomas Jones **       Varlos' Zzzzzzz
14. **Joseph Addai **       Moridwon (Hamlet)

Best Pick(s):Marques Colston
The WR position is very shallow at the top this season, so there’s a major premium on getting a good one and this is amplified by the keepers unavailable. You absolutely have to have a guy who you can count on for 12-15 points every week and that pool dries up quickly. I think this round accurately reflects the relative positions of the WR class and overall this round was executed very well across the board. I gave Colston the nod because I think he’s probably the 3rd best WR taken in the round even though he came off the board 7th. He has injury risks but the NO offense is scary and when he’s been on the field he’s been unstoppable.

Worst Pick(s): Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai
Only a minor critique here. The round was very well executed overall and these were the last two picks of it. However, I think these guys could struggle quite a lot this season. Still, there was very little else available and each guy has enough upside to make it defensible. Jones is still the primary ball carrier behind an outstanding O-Line with a new head coach who comes from a team that absolutely loved to pound the ball. But he’s old and there are two young hungry guys behind him one of whom is probably a classic TD vulture. Addai’s troubles are well documented but the Colts were once a reliable running team that uses screens and swing passes a ton. The new coaching staff might end up being a little more conservative too. Of course he could be a total zero too.

Most Upside: Ronnie Brown, Marques Colston
Colston I already commented on, but suffice to say he could be every bit the WR that Moss turns out to be if he plays all 16 games.

Ronnie Brown needs to prove that he can sustain a full season as a full-time back but if he does there’s reason to think that he can be a fantasy force this year. Sticky Ricky’s contributions seem to be waning and the Wildcat boosts Brown’s value in FF. Still you can’t deny that he’s been inconsistent at best, but if you get 2007 Ronnie for a full 16 games you have an awesome get.

Biggest Risk: Terrell Owens, Marques Colston
Colston has to stay healthy of course. Can’t forget that.

TO is in a new situation, is a year older and the Buffalo offense has looked crappy in the preseason. They fired their OC and are experimenting with the no huddle behind a shaky O Line. He’s a risk, and frankly he’s a bigger risk than Colston with less upside. I don’t hate the draft pick overall since TO has proven to be a consistent TD scorer and he and Lee Evans will complement each other very nicely. TO has been about as healthy as any WR ever.

Keeper Potential: N/A

My Pick: Marques Colston
Apparently this round is all about Colston. Maybe my having him is biasing me, but I don’t think so. As I was sitting there waiting for the snake to come back and I saw him on the board I was getting excited, when he lasted until my pick I could have burst. If I’ve got a healthy Colston all season I’m going to be nigh on impossible to beat and considering the bulk of my draft is filled with stable if unexplosive guys taking a risk here is completely tolerable. I knew I needed a second top flight WR to compliment him and step up as a #1 should he break down, but taken in a bubble he’s a great get here.

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Round 3. ****       
1. **T.J. Houshmandzadeh **       Moridwon (Hamlet)
2. **Vincent Jackson **       Varlos' Zzzzzzz
3. **Chad Ochocinco **       Omni's Omnipotents
4. **Marshawn Lynch **       Crabby Hermits
5. **Jason Witten **       New York Fanboys
6. **Reggie Bush **       Spiritus Mundane
7. **Jonathan Stewart **       RealCarmenOfGenius
8. **Hines Ward **       Fightin' Quakers
9. **Larry Johnson **       9 Inch Neils (RNATB)
10. **DeAngelo Williams [sup]K[/sup] **       Fourth & Nineteen
11. **Calvin Johnson [sup]K[/sup] **       Off Constantly
12. **Roy Williams **       Quentin's JAMmers
13. **Antonio Gates **       DrewBrees'Birthmark
14. **Bernard Berrian **       Baltimore Weirdos

Keepers: Calvin Johnson, DeAngelo Williams
Outstanding keepers even in the third round. Both are undisputed 1st round picks. Not as stellar as some of the later keepers but should help these teams a ton.

Best Pick(s): Vincent Jackson, Chad Ochocinco
This is another tough round to judge for the opposite reason as the 2nd. The lack of depth overall really is apparent and after the first 3 picks there is a litany of reaches and crossed fingers. Those of us drafting at the front of the round had a huge benefit. Vincent Jackson is a perennial breakout candidate and you can count me as one who expects it to finally happen. Ochocinco was a guy I was considering drafting in place of Colston had he come off the board in the 2nd so that he made it back around in the 3rd feels like a big win. Largely these two picks are the best simply by the fact that we were able to exploit the tail end of the second WR tier and the subsequent drop off is huge.

Worst Pick(s): Jonathan Stewart
There are a lot of guys who could have gotten this award, most notably those TE reaches but considering the dearth of talent elsewhere getting a first tier TE is defensible. Witten over Gates is an issue, but that was an autopick and not completely off the reservation with Gates going 8 picks later and the absence of TO in Dallas.

Jonathan Stewart however is a complete mess. He’s injured and it’s unclear how long it will take him to get to full speed. It’s an achillies injury so it might eventually prove to be season ending. Even were he healthy it’s much to early to take a guy that plays behind such a stud starter and who isn’t part of a clear RBBC, even if it were a 50-50 split the third round is a reach. This may have been a auto pick, but nonetheless the manager will pay dearly for it.

Most Upside: Roy Williams
I’m really down on Roy this year. He’s dinged up and he hasn’t proven to be a worthwhile #1 WR in a long time and has a recent and persistent history of injuries. When he has been healthy of late he hasn’t been that great. BUT, he is the #1 WR in a pass happy Dallas offense and TO is gone. The situation could be very bad for Dallas as a team but Roy, if he’s on the field, could be a steady fantasy contributor. I wouldn’t have liked him anywhere near that previous group of WRs but compared to these iffy RBs drafted he’s a get. He might be a bust, but for a late 3rd in this league he has enough potential to impress.

Biggest Risk: Marshawn Lynch
Stewart could go here due to the injury questions but Lynch gets the nod because of the higher draft position and the fact that he’s definitely out for 3 games. Those 3 games could put you in a big hole and it could firmly place him in a RBBC situation out of the blue. Personally I think that latter concern is unlikely, Lynch is a talent and I like the idea of a no huddle for him, but it compounds the questions in selecting him so early.

Keeper Potential: N/A

My Pick: Chad Ochocinco
I really like his value here. He’s got the potential to break out and return to form as an elite fantasy WR. He’s looked amazing in preseason and camp and the Bengals are very high on him. Palmer is back and he’ll need to lean on Chaz with TJ out of the picture and the TE position up in the air. All in all there’s tons of reasons to like him and I could him as a monster value in the third. I was fortunate to be drafting right before the talent drop off began.

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Calvin Johnson is certainly not an undisputer first round pick? Yahoo has his ADP as 21.1.

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And another thing…

Spiritus Mundane

  1. (6) LaDainian Tomlinson
  2. (23) Greg Jennings
  3. (34) Reggie Bush
  4. (51) Tony Gonzalez
  5. (62) New York
  6. (79) Stephen Gostkowski
  7. (90) Wes Welker
  8. (107) DeSean Jackson
  9. (118) Matt Cassel
  10. (135) Tennessee
  11. (146) Muhsin Muhammad
  12. (163) Nate Burleson
  13. (174) Correll Buckhalter
  14. (191) Brady Quinn
  15. (202) Kevin Boss
  16. (219) Rian Lindell

Best pick: Greg Jennings. Good #1 receiver who is consistently a scorer. LT was a good pick too.

Worst pick: New York, Gostkowski and Gonzalez. Passing on a QB, a good #2 RB (Bush doesn’t count), and your flex position to grab roster spots that are unpredictable and very closely together, wasn’t a good move to me.

Strength: I really like the WR crew. Jennings, Jackson, and Welker are a pretty good threesome, and good value when taken

Weaknesses: You RB’s. The weight of the world is on LT, because Bush isn’t much in a non PPR league, and Buckhalter is in a crowded backfield and has the knees of an 80 year old.

Overall: Unless LT returns to his dominance of a couple years ago, I don’t see much to like. You’d better be getting scoring from your D, K, and TE, because I don’t see it coming from your QB or RB.

ETA: This was an autodraft right? Sorry dude.

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RealCarmenOfGenius

  1. (7) Drew Brees
  2. (22) Ryan Grant
  3. (35) Jonathan Stewart
  4. (50) Anthony Gonzalez
  5. (63) Kellen Winslow
  6. (78) Cedric Benson
  7. (91) Fred Jackson
  8. (106) Eli Manning
  9. (119) Joe Flacco
  10. (134) Minnesota
  11. (147) Eddie Royal
  12. (162) Heath Miller
  13. (175) Brian Robiskie
  14. (190) Kenny Britt
  15. (203) Mohamed Massaquoi
  16. (218) Jaymar Johnson

Best Pick: Ryan Grant. Scooped the last of the second tier of RB’s. He should do just fine for you. I’m also intrigued by the loading up on WR keepers/hopefuls. It’s crazy enough it just may work.

Worst Pick: Jonathon Stewart. An oft injured backup in the third round isn’t on the road to success. I’m also not a fan of Brees at #7. I can’t remember anytime where the top QB has stayed the same for two years, and if you’re taking a QB at 7, he’d better be the best. Oh, and Winslow in the 5th? Oh no you di’int.

Strengths: Got young, promising receivers up the wazoo. I like Royal to do well because of Marshall’s mental problems. If Britt, Massaquoi, Jaymar, or Britt start hot this year, you’ll be set for three years. Unfortunately for you, they won’t. Sorry.

Weaknesses: Your #1 WR is Anthony Gonzalez. That’s gonna leave a mark. I think you were drafting for 2011, not this year.

Overall: I can’t see this team, as configured, to do much of anything this year. Brees and Grant are certainly formidible, but the rest is a scrap heap of wannabes.

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Going fast and furious now:

Fightin’ Quakers

  1. (8) Steven Jackson
  2. (21) Ronnie Brown
  3. (36) Hines Ward
  4. (49) Donovan McNabb
  5. (64) Rashard Mendenhall
  6. (77) Chicago
  7. (92) Brandon Marshall
  8. (105) Derrick Mason
  9. (120) James Davis
  10. (133) Jerious Norwood
  11. (148) Chad Pennington
  12. (161) Darren Sproles
  13. (176) Jeremy Maclin
  14. (189) Brandon Pettigrew
  15. (204) Earl Bennett
  16. (217) Cornelius Ingram

Best pick: Donovan McNabb. You lousy piece of festering garbage. … I mean good pick! He’s the last of the solid QB’s and you got him when the price was right. Excellent pick. Fucker.

Worst Pick: Hines Ward. I don’t like that smug little whiny punk fuckhead. And fantasywise, he’s got little to no upside, tends to disappear for games at a time, and is on the downward path. Not good for your #1 WR. And the Bears D, which isn’t going to be strong by any stretch, in the 6th round was just plain sad.

Strengths: OK. I admit it. I like Steven Jackson. There. I said it. If I can stand up for Kevin Smith on the worst team in the NFL, I can certainly find it in my heart to like SJ’s chances of having a good year. Add in Ronnie Brown, Mendenhall, Sproles, and James Davis, and that RB crew could really be special.

Weaknesses: No sure fire studs. I like most of the guys, and you have a good balance of starters and prospects. But there is no WOW on this team. Just a good, solid fantasy football team.

Overall: I liked the late picks of Bennett, Pettigrew, Maclin, and Norwood. Looking forward for sure. If Marshall gets his head on straight (or doesn’t, but still produces), Ward can fight off father time, and one or two of the young guns emerges, this team can really compete. I like this little underdog of a team.

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And the train kept arollin’ all night long:

9 Inch Neils (RNATB)

  1. (9) Frank Gore
  2. (20) Marion Barber
  3. (37) Larry Johnson
  4. (48) Braylon Edwards
  5. (65) Lance Moore
  6. (76) Matt Schaub
  7. (93) Dallas Clark
  8. (104) Jamal Lewis
  9. (121) Steve Smith
  10. (132) Jason Campbell
  11. (149) Percy Harvin
  12. (160) Carnell Williams
  13. (177) Michael Bush
  14. (188) Glen Coffee
  15. (205) Robbie Gould
  16. (216) New Orleans

Best pick: Larry Johnson. Now, stay with me here. With that pick, RNATB showed that he’s picking the BPA and not forcing himself to take positions of need. I liked LJ better than anything else on the board there, so even though he had two RB’s already, he got a third and made a great call.

Worst Pick: The rest of the RB’s after Larry. I get it, running backs rock. But loading up on Jamal Lewis, and then taking risks with Cadillac and Bush was overkill. There has to be a balance between the guy you like the most and making a recognition that maybe taking a chance on a WR prospect instead of a RB prospect might make more sense. I loved the Coffee pick though. Excellente!

Strengths: Those RB. Nobody better fuck with those RB’s.

Weaknesses: In a 14 team league, strength in one area usually costs in another. Thanks to a good keeper in Schaub, the QB didn’t suffer too much (but if Schaub goes down, you could be royally fucked). And, although you did the best you could, the WR corp is a bit less than you would like, and a complete lack of good prospects.

Overall: This team did the best they could at the WR position, and it just may be enough to catapult this team to the playoffs. I hate Barber, but I think Gore will have a great season if used properly, and the depth at RB is astounding. If Schaub stays healthy, Braylon gets over his dropsies, and Harvin can become a playmaker in the NFL, this is a team to watch out for.

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Fourth & Nineteen

  1. (10) Larry Fitzgerald
  2. (19) Steve Smith
  3. (38) DeAngelo Williams
  4. (47) Tony Romo
  5. (66) Willie Parker
  6. (75) Kevin Walter
  7. (94) Baltimore
  8. (103) Kris Brown
  9. (122) Zach Miller
  10. (131) Kyle Orton
  11. (150) Earnest Graham
  12. (159) Owen Daniels
  13. (178) Mark Bradley
  14. (187) Justin Fargas
  15. (206) Tampa Bay
  16. (215) Nick Folk

Best Pick: Unlike some people, I actually liked the WR/WR. Both guys were picked right where they should be, and the other options there didn’t do anything for me. With the keeper in DeAngelo, you’re off to a great start.

Worst pck: Ravens D, Kris Brown, Zach Miller. Was this autodrafted?

Strengths: Talent at the top. Fitz and Smith are a great WR crew, and DeAngelo is a great RB. I’m not a Willie Parker fan this year, hell take away week 1, and he had 2 TD’s in 8 games started. That’s pretty pathetic. But, if healthy, he’s a servicable RB2. Romo is fine… at least until November/December. Trade him before then.

Weaknesses: Depth. I think you’re fine with Orton at QB, but you have backup Kickers, Backup Defense, and Backup TE instead of good Backup RB and WR. Again, was this autodrafted? Because you need some help.

Overall: This team will go as far as Williams, Fitz, and Smith can take him. They can take him pretty far, though. But there is little to no solid depth, and the battle for the flex spot starter or bye week fill in is going to hurt this team. I’m not sure this team has enough to make the playoffs.

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Huh. I hadn’t even noticed I’m carrying 7 tailbacks. That said, in a 3-back league, I think it makes perfect sense to carry six. After all, chances are that at least one, and probably two, out of my top three will miss significant time.

I’ve dangled Jamal Lewis in a couple of trade offers, though, and I might cough up Larry Johnson or even Marion Barber if somebody makes with the goods at wide receiver. Are you listening, people?

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And coming down the stretch…

Off Constantly

  1. (11) Randy Moss
  2. (18) Reggie Wayne
  3. (39) Calvin Johnson
  4. (55) Steve Slaton
  5. (58) Donald Brown
  6. (74) Julius Jones
  7. (95) Jamaal Charles
  8. (102) Jay Cutler
  9. (123) Fred Taylor
  10. (130) Chris Chambers
  11. (143) Mark Sanchez
  12. (166) Matt Ryan
  13. (179) San Diego
  14. (186) Brent Celek
  15. (207) Chris Brown
  16. (214) Neil Rackers

Best Pick: Keepers, no doubt. CJ, Slaton, Ryan are a solid crew, and having them before the draft even begins is rock effin’ solid. I really liked getting Chris Brown in the 15th too. That’s a small pick that may have a huge payoff.

Worst Pick: Randy Moss/Reggie Wayne. You’re sitting there with a top 4 WR in Calvin Johnson and you go WR/WR to start the draft? I think you’ll regret passing on Jacobs, Portis, or even Brown and Grant. Because after Slaton, who is no sure thing, you got nothing proven. I know, I know. I just praised 4th and 19 for going WR, but he had DeAngelo and nothing at WR. You have Slaton and CJ.

Strengths: Good god look at those WR. Three out of my top 5 WR on one team. Damn, that’s impressive.

Weaknesses: Lack of a true #2 RB. But this weakness is in part obviated by the selection of 5 other RBs. And of those RB’s, you got two backups who are young and could be impressive in Charles and Brown, and you got two vets who will be sharing time, but could emerge in Jones and Taylor. And the great handcuff in Brown.

Overall: I’m not a fan of the playing a WR in the flex spot, but when that WR is a stud like Wayne, you’ll be fine. Barring a bad run of luck (risky QB situation, Slaton’s sophomore slump? and if no one emerges from that RB crew), this team has the horses to make the playoffs. Well done.

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Autodrafted and using Yahoo’s default rankings, as I was sick all Labor Day weekend. With that being said, it could have been a LOT worse.

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Quentin’s JAMmers

  1. (12) Tom Brady - Ooh. First round might be a bit much considering he’s coming off ACL surgery and the Pats’ offensive line seemed to take a step back last year. Still, he was the highest scoring fantasy player ever just two seasons ago.

  2. (17) Kevin Smith - Everyone knows I have a man-crush on Kevin Smith. However, while I feel he’ll be one of the best 15 backs in the league for the next 8 years, I definitely don’t think he’s the 15th best player in fantasy football. I would have taken just about every other player drafted in the second round over him, because the whole point with Smith is that he’s a sleeper. If you got him in the third you’d be laughing all the way to the bank, but you didn’t.

  3. (40) Roy Williams - Lots of risk with Williams. Banged up this year, unproductive last year. However, Romo has to throw to somebody other than Witten, and it won’t be Patrick Crayton. Could post big numbers, but could also be invisible.

  4. (45) Knowshon Moreno - I’m not big on Moreno, and not just because Denver has 19 running backs all vying for the top spot. It’s also because I think they’ll be behind a lot this year. However, you needed a back and he is the projected starter.

  5. (68) Donnie Avery - I don’t think Avery is a #2 wideout, at least not until next year. Still, pickings were pretty slim at this point.

  6. (73) LeSean McCoy - Ah, here we go. Will definitely get the chance to start at least once this year. Problem is you never know when Westbrook will play and when he won’t. Good keeper prospect, but only if Westbrook gets the boot after the season.

  7. (96) Chris Cooley - Solid pick.

  8. (101) David Garrard - I like Garrard as much as the next man, but Cutler was still on the board. What were you thinking?

  9. (124) Nate Washington - Potential here. The problem is that Washington is a downfield threat and Kerry Collins is no longer much of a downfield passer. If he can expand his game he could become a solid #2.

  10. (129) Kevin Curtis - Seems to be the forgotten man in Philly, which is alright, because he’s more of a #3 wideout than a #1.

  11. (152) Dwayne Bowe - I’m wondering if you forgot you kept Bowe, because you drafted four potential starters at wideout. Bowe and Williams give you one of the best three one-two punches in the league at the position.

  12. (157) Tashard Choice - Don’t understand this pick. A lot has to happen for Choice to make your lineup.

  13. (180) Patrick Crayton - This one I understand, but if Crayton didn’t produce with TO opposite him I don’t see him producing with Roy Williams opposite.

  14. (185) Washington - Stolen from under my nose. Might be the top fantasy defense this year with a first-round secondary and Haynesworth in the middle. Questionmarks at linebacker, though.

  15. (208) Mike Goodson - Who?

  16. (213) Josh Brown - Er… you do know he doesn’t play for Seattle anymore, right?

Overall: 6/10. I don’t think Brady and your good receiving corps will be enough to win you a title considering your weakness at running back. However, you’ll put a hurting on some teams here and there.

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My “Off the Cuff, Don’t Quote Me, I Have No Frickin’ Clue” Predictions:

Playoff bound: 9 inch Neils, Off Constantly.

In the mix: VarlosZzzzzz, Omni’s Omnipotents, Quentin JAMmers, Fighting Quakers, 4th and 19.

Just wait till next year!: Moridwon (Hamlet), DrewBreesBirthmark, Crabby Hermits, RealCarmenof Genius.

Need a Crash Cart. STAT!: Baltimore Weirdos, New York Fanboys, Spiritus Mundane,

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DrewBrees’Birthmark

  1. (13) Brandon Jacobs - well, he hasn’t played a full season yet, even in the Giants’ platoon system, but he’s going to put up some insane rushing totals if he does. Like Turner, you won’t sniff a point for receiving yards, so if he’s shut down, you’re shut out. The ultimate high-risk, high-reward back.

  2. (16) Andre Johnson - I don’t understand the frenzy over Johnson. He’s a physical freak, and a very productive player, but he just doesn’t score very often for such a dominant player. That drops him on my fantasy rank list every year behind the likes of Reggie Wayne, who’s always good for 10 touchdowns.

  3. (41) Antonio Gates - In a year where tight ends are deeper than they’ve ever been, this seems like an unnecessary pick. The difference between Gates and John Carlson is not nearly as great as the difference between Ray Rice and Tim Hightower.

  4. (44) Antonio Bryant - The pundits are all down on Bryant, for no reason that makes a lick of sense. He’s primarily a deep threat, and neither Jeff Garcia or Brian Griese was any good at throwing deep last year (particularly Garcia). Leftwich, on the other hand, can only throw the deep ball. He and Bryant are made for each other. Plus, Winslow is now there to provide a legitimate second target, something that Bryant didn’t have last year. An excellent #2 wideout, for the price.

  5. (69) Pittsburgh - Really? Defenses score a lot of points in fantasy, but they’re just not predictable. Certainly not predictable enough to spend a pick that should have gone on a running back on one.

  6. (83) Kurt Warner - The points are there, but so is the risk. I doubt Warner will last for another 600-attempt season, so you’d better draft a good backup. Also looked awful in preseason.

  7. (86) Rob Bironas - Huh?

  8. (111) Tim Hightower - Hightower wasn’t productive last season even when he got all the carries, and he won’t be getting all the carries this year. Worst #2 back in the league.

  9. (114) Willis McGahee - Ah, this is better. For all the Ray Rice spooge over draft boards, I think it’s only a matter of time before McGahee gets his job back. He’s just too good to stay on a bench.

  10. (128) Deion Branch - has never really been productive in Seattle, but could be a steal.

  11. (153) T.J. Duckett - not even on a roster right now!

  12. (167) Pierre Thomas - best keeper value of the whole draft. If he gets healthy.

  13. (170) Dallas - You spent a #5 pick on a defense and you’re drafting a backup?

  14. (184) Anthony Fasano - No reason to carry a backup tight end when you have a top 3 starter.

  15. (209) Shaun Hill - not exactly what I had in mind when I said “good backup”.

  16. (212) John Kasay - Yep, he’s a kicker alright.

Overall: 3/10. Promising start, weak finish, abysmal running back situation.

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A few choice (okay, cherry-picked) quotes from my draft analyses last year:

And one or two less choice ones:

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Heh, always fun going over the old threads.

And I’d like to point out that last year I drafted both Aaron Rodgers *and *Phillip Rivers, in the 8th and 9th Rounds, and I caught flack for it from multiple sources.

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Baltimore Weirdos

I don’t know if Dave still lurks or not so I feel a bit odd reviewing his team, especially since I usually “talk to” the team owner.

  1. (14) Clinton Portis - I know how you feel, man. I had the 12th pick in my longtime league last season and was basically forced to take him- and as it turned out, he was pretty good. For half a season. I expect more of the same here- effective early based on sheer volume of carries, ineffective late based on… sheer volume of carries. BPA, of course.

  2. (15) Peyton Manning - Manning’s numbers seem to be slowly winding down these days, between his age and the loss of Marvin Harrison. Still, there’s no more consistent player, and as I’ve said time and again you need guaranteed points from top-2 picks.

  3. (42) Bernard Berrian - You kind of caught the tail end of a run on wideouts in round 3, and while Berrian is horribly inconsistent the potential is there for big stats (depending, of course, on how Brat Favre’s arm holds up).

  4. (43) Ray Rice - Tremendous pick, if you got McGahee; not so much a handcuff situation as a “might lose job by sucking” situation. Since you didn’t, I’d call this an iffy pick.

  5. (59) Santonio Holmes - Excellent value. Holmes should post a 1,000 yard season without too much difficulty, and I’m quite pissed off that I didn’t get him.

  6. (72) Le’Ron McClain - Bwuh? He’s been moved back to fullback, and got virtually no carries in the preseason. Might vulture a few touchdowns, but he’s definitely third in the Ravens’ RB pecking order. You could have had McGahee, who as mentioned has far too much talent to stay on the bench.

  7. (97) Philadelphia - Going to be great, but you took them wayyyy too early.

  8. (110) John Carlson - solid pick, although I think you could probably have waited a round. Underrated.

  9. (126) Sammy Morris - Can’t hurt to roll the dice on one of the 359 Patriots tailbacks.

  10. (127) David Akers - much too early to take a kicker, even this one.

  11. (154) Miles Austin - Solid pick. If he can earn playing time (maybe even a starting spot) he’ll put up some great numbers.

  12. (155) Mark Clayton - The breakout sensation that never broke out. Could this be the year? Maybe, but I gave up on him two seasons ago.

  13. (182) Joey Galloway - a 37 year old receiver who missed all of last season isn’t going to produce, even with Brady throwing him the ball. Wasted pick.

  14. (183) JaMarcus Russell - I hope you’ve got a better plan than this for the bye week.

  15. (210) Chase Coffman - first rounder, keeper, yada yada.

  16. (222) Indianapolis - Personnel optimized for a Tampa-2 scheme. Larry Coyer’s scheme requires much bigger players in the front seven. I predict bad things for the Indy defense, at least in Caldwell/Coyer’s first year.

Overall: 6/10. Your lack of worthwhile keepers cost you big time, because you’re mediocre at every position except WR (strong) and RB (weak, and really short on depth). I don’t see any way for you to make the playoffs unless the Ravens somehow morph into the league’s best offense (which is possible, but not exactly likely). I did boost your score a bit for your performance in spite of non-keepeyness.

158 

Round 4. ****       
1. **Ray Rice **       Baltimore Weirdos
2. **Antonio Bryant **       DrewBrees'Birthmark
3. **Knowshon Moreno **       Quentin's JAMmers
4. **Roddy White [sup]K[/sup] **       Varlos' Zzzzzzz
5. **Tony Romo **       Fourth & Nineteen
6. **Braylon Edwards **       9 Inch Neils (RNATB)
7. **Donovan McNabb **       Fightin' Quakers
8. **Anthony Gonzalez **       RealCarmenOfGenius
9. **Tony Gonzalez **       Spiritus Mundane
10. **LenDale White **       New York Fanboys
11. **Ben Roethlisberger **       Crabby Hermits
12. **Darren McFadden **       Omni's Omnipotents
13. **Steve Slaton [sup]K[/sup] **       Off Constantly
14. **Carson Palmer **       Moridwon (Hamlet)

Keepers: Roddy White, Steve Slaton
I love Steve Slaton, he looks like a latter day LDT and that Houston offense can churn. Needs to stay healthy like all explosive RBs, but he near the top of that 2nd tier of RBs. White isn’t quite the value that Slaton is but he’s a nice get here. I drafted him last year but traded him for Rivers and his keeper rights. I won that trade by a landslide.

Best Pick(s): Donovan McNabb
The last of the elite QBs available and his offense should be even better than in years past. Jackson looked especially good in preseason and I think McCoy is going to help keep that screen passing game active for the entire season. I like him quite a lot more than Romo.

Worst Pick(s): Ben Roethlisberger
LenDale is a big reach but no where near the stretch that Ben is in the 4th round. This team will depend greatly on the running game and the loss of Nate Washington and uncertain health of Willie Parker both diminish Ben’s value. There were much better options available and Big Ben probably would have lasted one, maybe two rounds if you are particularly high on him.

Most Upside: Darren McFadden
Run DMC is uncertain, but his potential is difficult to ignore. If the injury was to blame for his lackluster '08 then he could have a huge year. The Raiders suck and haven’t gotten much better but Fargas is hurting and McFadden will be given every chance to take the lead role and could have an elite season. His pass catching ability with a rookie QB should ensure a steady stream of points.

Biggest Risk: Knowshon Moreno
There are a lot of risks in this round from uncertain QBs, rookie RBs and WRs with sketchy QB situations, but I think Moreno is the biggest of them. When was the last time he was actually healthy? Will the new look Broncos be anything like the old? Will it look more like the Pats offense of late? He could dominate the offense but he could end up giving you nothing.

Keeper Potential: Ray Rice, Knowshon Moreno, Darren McFadden, Steve Slaton
For the questions surrounding all these guys, here in the first eligible round for keepers we have 4 guys that might end up being worth keeping as a 2nd rounder next year. Each team is hoping that these players step up and claim the starting running back role and lack a proven commodity as competition. It’s a long shot but if any of these guys become the next Forte or Chris Johnson they’ll be valuable commodities.

My Pick: Darren McFadden
As I mentioned above McFadden is in the right situation to become a star. The Raiders overall team issues are an impediment but he has the pedigree and I think he’s got a stronger case for being valuable here than any of the rookies. I’m anxious to see if the Raiders QB situation improves and if McFadden will be a major feature complimenting it. Certainly a Raiders team playing from behind will limit him some, but if his pre-turf toe performance against KC last year was more than just a fluke against a terrible defense I’m excited. He’s uncertain, but much less uncertain than the other RBs taken ahead of him.

159 

Round 5. ****       
1. **Beanie Wells **       Moridwon (Hamlet)
2. **Donald Brown **       Off Constantly
3. **Santonio Holmes **       Baltimore Weirdos
4. **Santana Moss **       Crabby Hermits
5. **Lee Evans **       New York Fanboys
6. **New York **       Spiritus Mundane
7. **Kellen Winslow **       RealCarmenOfGenius
8. **Rashard Mendenhall **       Fightin' Quakers
9. **Lance Moore **       9 Inch Neils (RNATB)
10. **Willie Parker **       Fourth & Nineteen
11. **Felix Jones **       Varlos' Zzzzzzz
12. **Donnie Avery **       Quentin's JAMmers
13. **Pittsburgh **       DrewBrees'Birthmark
14. **Chris Johnson [sup]K[/sup] **       Omni's Omnipotents

Keepers: Chris Johnson
Should I take a bow? There are a lot of great keepers this year including a couple late round RBs but I don’t think any have the potential to blow open the league like this one. Certainly I’m biased but I’m downright giddy over the prospects. Here’s a couple choice quotes from last years thread:

Man I luuuuurves me some Chris Johnson.

Best Pick(s): Willie Parker
I’m down on Parker and have never really bought into him as a fantasy RB, he’s just too unreliable. Now that unreliability has translated to real life football. That he was hurt throughout the preseason did nothing to change that. However the Steelers have made a big to-do about how Parker is the undisputed starting RB as the season begins and will be the primary red zone option too. Tomlin isn’t known to be big on misinformation and silly gamesmanship so I don’t dismiss this easily. I’ve had the biased love affair with Mendenhall that only an Illinois alum can have since his drafting and I still think he turns into a monster in Pittsburgh before all is said and done, but right now Parker this late is probably a steal. There’s risk, lots of risk, but right now I like this pick a lot.

Worst Pick(s): New York, Pittsburgh, Kellen Winslow
You’ll never sell me on drafting defenses this early. I know that the top few score a lot and there’s a drop off after the first tier. However, predicting who will be those great defenses is far too hard. Sure, Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been fairly reliable but every year a couple defenses match them taken in the last 3 rounds. That’s too big a markup for me, I’d rather trust my instincts in picking those lost cost defenses who will be good.

Winslow here is a bust too. His injury history and move to a new system and QB hell in Tampa makes him far to uncertain to consider drafting him in that elite TE area. He may have a good year but round 5 is not the place for him. There were #1 WRs on the board still who will outscore him by a lot and TEs available 5 rounds later who will give you 80% of his production at worst.

Most Upside: Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall
I won’t spend too much time rehashing why I like Mendenhall, but for as good as Parker is here taking Mendenhall has more potential. He’s could be a much more complete back than Parker and more effective in the red zone and he could be a strong keeper.

Wells looked amazing in his short preseason outing and I love his situation in Arizona. I had him targeted with my next pick if he slid and I’m pretty high on him. His injury history has killed his ADP and that’s still an issue, but I think his emergence in that system could be explosive. This guy has RB2 potential from week 1.

Biggest Risk: Donnie Avery, Willie Parker, Chris Wells
Avery is coming back from a broken foot only a month ago. While such quick healing is impressive and the Rams are excited it sounds too good to be true. If he’s rushing back and he reinjuries it you could be totally screwed. Injuries aside he’s the starting WR for an abysmal Rams team with a new HC and a young, retooled O Line. People expect him to build on a above average rookie season but I don’t see him as a starting fantasy WR.

Parker and Wells are injury concerns. It’s a recurring theme with RBs of course but at this point you are still depending on them to contribute for you every week. Combine the injury risk with the uncertain role and touches these guys have as much downside as upside.

Keeper Potential: Chris Johnson and all the running backs.
Not to be too repetitive but at this point in the draft RBs are about all you can justify keeping. I actually feel pretty good about all these guys, I think the 3rd round next year could be keeper filled one. I think the performances of Slaton, Forte and Johnson last year have everyone really eager to get their hands on the next breakout rookie RB.

My Pick: Chris Johnson
Keeper pick, see above. It was tough watching all those RBs get drafted ahead of him but having him in my back pocket completely altered what I did in the first 4 rounds. What a luxury. Hopefully I can find the 2010 version later on.

160 

Round 6. ****       
1. **Jerricho Cotchery **       Omni's Omnipotents
2. **Le'Ron McClain **       Baltimore Weirdos
3. **LeSean McCoy **       Quentin's JAMmers
4. **Julius Jones **       Off Constantly
5. **Kevin Walter **       Fourth & Nineteen
6. **Matt Schaub [sup]K[/sup] **       9 Inch Neils (RNATB)
7. **Chicago **       Fightin' Quakers
8. **Cedric Benson **       RealCarmenOfGenius
9. **Stephen Gostkowski **       Spiritus Mundane
10. **Steve Breaston **       New York Fanboys
11. **Donald Driver **       Crabby Hermits
12. **Aaron Rodgers [sup]K[/sup] **       Varlos' Zzzzzzz
13. **Kurt Warner [sup]K[/sup] **       DrewBrees'Birthmark
14. **Matt Hasselbeck **       Moridwon (Hamlet)

Keepers: Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner
QB round! Some pretty solid ones here but not game changing values, with the possible exception of Rodgers. The Packers offense looks like a machine heading into the big Primetime game with the soft Bears defense. I’m not feeling good about it. People have raised questions about the Packers line, the health and depth of the WRs and if Rodgers first year was a fluke but as much as it pains me I don’t buy it. I think the most serious risk is the potential for an ugly winter in the NFC North and some really tough matchups in the final weeks.

Best Pick(s): Cedric Benson
Just typing that made me throw up in my mouth a little. I’m ashamed to admit I even considered adding him as my 4th RB at the top of the round. The guy is a bum but he’s in a perfect situation and the competition at the position is iffy so from a fantasy perspective he’s gold. Really, a clear starting RB in the 6th round of a keeper league who is not a major injury risk and is a known quantity is amazing.

Worst Pick(s): Stephen Gostkowski, Chicago
No idea if either of these were autopicks, I’m guessing the kicker was, but that pick is absolutely asinine. There’s really no need to elaborate.

The Bears D in the grand scheme of things is probably an even worse pick. Taking the top kicker insanely early is painful but at least you are assured of getting steady top production for it. You over spent, but at least you got something good. The Bears D on the other hand isn’t likely to be very good this year. Perhaps they underachieved in the preseason due to a lack of urgency from a bunch of veterans but I saw some serious issues last season and not a one of them was adequately addressed. The pass rush and secondary are deeply flawed even when healthy and they aren’t healthy now. Not only did you over spend for a defense, you overspent for a defense that will be mediocre at best and potentially quite poor in an explosive division. When you can have negative scores that an especially bad thing.

My pessimism on the Bears defense could be misplaced. I desperately hope that it is. However if I’m right this is the worst pick of the draft.

Most Upside: Kevin Walter
Walter is basically the #2 wideout in a very potent offense and will be facing single coverage with AJ opposite him and a healthy Owen Daniels. He’s still got a a bit to prove but his results were great last season and he’s got the perfect frame and skill set to be a dominant player. If Schaub is healthy AJ and Walter would be the this years CJ and Housh / Marvin and Wayne. Even if Schaub misses time again I think Rex is good enough at throwing the ball downfield to keep them productive. I think he’s going to be a great value regardless, but he has potential to be a monster.

Biggest Risk: Matt Hasselbeck
There are a few guys in this group that are risks but at this point in the draft risk is pretty much universal. Considering most players drafted here are starting QBs versus potential flex options and backup RBs incurring risk at that position is the most…uh…risky. I think Hasselbeck is poised to have a solid if unspectacular season but his back and other nicks are big questions. It’s paramount that you pair him with another stable guy.

Keeper Potential: LeSean McCoy, Kevin Walter, Steve Breaston, Aaron Rodgers
Not too many great keeper options here. Each of these guys could be worthy of the 4th rounder but I don’t expect any to be difference makers there. Of the group I think I like Breaston’s upside most because if Boldin ends up moving on after this season Breaston could be very coveted.

My Pick: Jerricho Cotchery
At this point I really felt like I needed a safe option. I had explosiveness in my keepers and early picks. Later I can nab a future star and possible breakout candidate, but for this pick I needed a WR who will offer steady and predictable results. I think I got that in Cotchery regardless of who’s throwing the ball. I think the Jets will be a pretty good team and the top WR on good teams tend to be pretty reliably productive. All in all this is a pick I feel good about but…I should have drafted Walter. Damn it!