He Hate Me FF keeper league

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
221

Ah, in that case I agree; you’re absolutely right. I misunderstood.

Mundi, the pass defense issues on the Giants last year were actually pretty interesting, though not in a fantasy sense. Someone on Giants.com pointed out that the 1986 Giants defense – the height of the (one true) LT years – had a couple HOFers and yet virtually the same ranking in pass defense as the 05 Giants. pro-football-reference.com confirms that they were ranked #22 in a league of 28 teams against the pass, which is closer to #26 in a 32 team league. I was stunned by that.

Pass defense is a funny thing. One thing the 05 Giants did fairly well was bend but not break. (Thus the bunch of yards given up in the air.) An awful lot of goal line stands resulted in 3 or even no points. The Redskins had 1st & goal in the 4th quarter of the 36-0 romp and turned it over on downs, but the Raiders were the worst. On 2nd & goal, they drew a PI call and got it to 1st & goal on the 1. Stuff Jordan, stuff Jordan, stuff Jordan, stuff the QB sneak to turn it over on downs.

This was the last week of the season, meaning the Giants LB corps was every bit as devastated for that GL stand as it was against Carolina, when Nick Goings looked like Jim Brown. Not to totally kill Jordan, but…oh my.

222

NOLA Sex Panthers / BabaBooey
01.04 (004) Rudi Johnson…(RB-Cin)
02.11 (025) Terrell Owens…(WR-Dal)
04.11 (053) Lee Evans…(WR-Buf)
05.04 (060) Cedric Benson…(RB-Chi)
06.11 (081) Brandon Jacobs…(RB-NYG)
07.04 (088) Chester Taylor…(RB-Min) **
08.11 (109) Keenan McCardell…(WR-SD)
09.04 (116) Michael Vick…(QB-Atl)
10.11 (137) Chad Jackson…(WR-NE)
11.04 (144) Domanick Davis…(RB-Hou)
12.11 (165) Chicago…(DEF-Chi) *
13.04 (172) David Carr…(QB-Hou)
15.02 (198) Jeff Reed…(K-Pit)
15.04 (200) Denver…(DEF-Den)
16.01 (211) Jermaine Wiggins…(TE-Min)
16.11 (221) Mike Alstott…(RB-TB)

QB It’s a sound fantasy strategy to wait until the middle/late rounds and grab 2 second-tier QB’s. It’s not a sound strategy to have those QB’s be Vick and Carr. Hey, vick scored well in this league last year. I understand that. Here’s some other things I understand: his highest rated game as a passer came when he only attempted 8 passes; he missed one start in 3 of the last 4 years, and 11 starts in the 4th; he’s been hit more than 130 time (sacks and rush attempts) in each of his full seasons as a starter; everybody in Atlanta loves them some Matt Schaub. Luckily as a backup you have David Carr, whose been beaten like a Pinata since he entered the league. Wow. Could you have found a little more risk for not much reward? Jeff George and Kerry Collins, maybe?

RB Rudi johnson is a stud. I just don’t understand folks who think differently. I rode him to the championship last year. I expect you will ride him all season, too. Really, you will have to. Chester Taylor is the darling of FF prognosticators everywhere, and the way the draft fell you would never have gotten him at 3.4 withotu the keeper trade, but he still has to show it on the field. For bye weeks, or if Taylor struggles, you have . . . Benson, Brandon, and the Beef. Here’s a list of RB’s who have anaged to pu Thomas Jones on the bench through the years: Michael Pittman, Maurice Shipp, Anthony thomas. Notice the name missing from that list . . . right. Brandon will steal a few TD’s. If you get lucky, it will be on a week when you have to play him. Otherwise, his primary value is in baiting Ellis and waiting for nbext year. I love Alstott in a manner as pure as the driven snow. His value is essentially the same as Jacobs, with less keeper potential but at a much cheaper price tag. Still, if you are putting Alstott in your starting lineup, you had better be rigth with God – cuz you damned sure have a prayer needin’ an answer.

WR TO. I have never rooted so hard against an individual player. Not even Michael Irvin. He has the potential to be dominant, sure, but he carries a high risk, too. Risk isn’t good in a #2 pick, especially when your #3 was tied up in a keeper. Chambers or Wayne would have been better picks for you, I think. Evans flashed a lot of potential last year, but he had Moulds grabing some attention. Now he has price, who just grabs money and leaves opponents wondering how this guy got the payday. McCardell is a nice situational sub at this point. Decent value at 8.11. Jackson ahs keeper potential, but you’re in trouble if he sees your starting lineup this year. I look at this group and I like the McCardell pick the best. That is not a good sign. If Owens blows up you will be fine, but if he blows up, you’re toast.

TE Wiggins in the 15th. The move of a man willing to pay less to get less. The John York school of fantasy ownership.

Ugh.

DEF/K 1 each. Nothing special. Nothing bad. Taken late. Check please.

keeper potential Lots of good hopefuls, but no real locks. Jacobs, Taylor, Jackson, Davis (too early to reach for him, but if he comes back you are still happy) even David Carr. Notice, please, that here is another list upon which Cedric Benson does not appear. (Okay, okay – he has the potential to be a starter and kept @3.x next year. I have the potential to lure Sakma Hayak into a threesome this weekend. Ced and me, we’re full of potential.)

Mundi Measure “The success of this team depends upon the consistent performance of 3 men: Terrell Ownes, Michael Vick, and Chester Taylor.” If you can say that sentence 3 times with a straight face, then you might be BabaBooey (or perhaps John York).

223

Sure – but they also gave up 20 TD’s through the air last year. That places them squarely in the bottom half for TD’s and well in teh bottom third for passing yards. Hey, doesn’t keep them from being a good fantasy D (thanks to sacks, mostly) but it is troubling given the inlux of WR talent in their division. On the bright side, they play the NFC south this year, which isn’t exactly an aerial showplace outside of Steve Smith (plus Keyshawn, says Keyshawn).

224

Culpable Deniability / Nurse Carmen
01.05 (005) Clinton Portis…(RB-Was)
02.10 (024) Marvin Harrison…(WR-Ind)
03.05 (033) Joseph Addai…(RB-Ind)
04.10 (052) Lawrence Maroney…(RB-NE)
05.05 (061) Muhsin Muhammad…(WR-Chi)
06.10 (080) Heath Miller…(TE-Pit)
07.05 (089) Nate Burleson…(WR-Sea)
08.10 (108) Chris Cooley…(TE-Was) *
09.05 (117) Carolina…(DEF-Car)
10.10 (136) Ben Roethlisberger…(QB-Pit) **
11.05 (145) Brad Johnson…(QB-Min)
12.10 (164) Travis Taylor…(WR-Min) *
13.05 (173) Josh Brown…(K-Sea)
14.10 (192) Ron Dayne…(RB-Den)
15.05 (201) Ashley Lelie…(WR-Atl)
16.10 (220) T. Jackson…(QB-Min)

QB Another disciple of the “pick 2 QB’s in the mid-late rounds” school of fantasy football. But you have learned well at the foot of some master (and been blessed with Big Ben as a keeper in round 10.) These guys won’t win any games for you, but they shouldn’t cost you any games, either. I like Jonson as a quality backup/situational sub. Big Ben isn’t a fantasy monster, but may have to put up more throws this year without the Bus to pound it late. He’s also continuting to develop as a young starter. Outside of his choice of hobbies and safety gear, there isn’t a lot not to like about him.

RB
[ul][li]Portis Risk=injury[/li][li]Addai Risk=splitting carries[/li][li]Maroney Risk=splitting carries & injury[/li][li]Dayne Risk=splitting carries (if he’s lucky) & sitting the bench & generally sucking wind[/ul][/li]There’s a pattern here, if one looks closely enough. Hey, Portis has HUGE upside potential. But he’s likely out at least week 1, and he’s one bad tackle away from a 3-6 week vacation with that shoulder. Now, I might have taken him at 1.5, too, considering the other optins, but if I had I would have made sure to balance the risk with some reliable production in backs 2 & 3. You went all upside and have nothing to rely upon if your thoroughbred stumbles. Risky Business, Mr Cruise.

WR
[ul][li]Harrison Risk=age, but he wil be fine like wine[/li][li]Muhammed the risk is gross, man. Plus he’s old and he isn’t Marvin[/li][li]Burleson Risk=Burleson. How many years has it been that he’s supopsed to be “about to break out?”[/li][li]Taylor Risk=another florida WR flop. He couldn’t even land a starting spot in Baltimore before they brought in Mason and drafter Clayton.[/li][li]Lelie Risk=#3 wideout on a team who’s leading receiver is a TE.[/ul][/li]So, you sacrificed reliable depth in your RB corps to grab Harrison, and then proceeded to back him up with a string of unreliable options. There is a pattern emerging.

TE Cooley was golden as a keeper. Miller has solid potential to be a starter each week. So, this is where you decided to invest in quality depth? In the TE?

Wow. That is an interesting choice of fantasy football priority.

DEF/K Good ones. Check.

keeper potential Maroney has an outside chance to be worth a 2 next year. Cooley will be worth a 6, if you don’t decide to also choose Heap in round 5. Dayne has a punchers chance, and Lelie comes cheap (and is worth almost every penny).

Mundi Measure Two studs show up for a gang fight. One of them already has a bad shoulder. That’s it. Don’t wait for the punchline.

Okay, okay, then Tom Cruise turns their house into a brothel and the fragile crystal football metaphor is recovered. But it’s got a crack in it. Trust has been betrayed, and the audience knows that all it will take is a single mishap to shatter the dream into a thousand shards. (But the audience doesn’t really care, because all they remember afterward is Rebecca DeMornay on a train.)

225

Fightin’ Quakers / furt
01.06 (006) Ronnie Brown…(RB-Mia)
02.09 (023) Ahman Green…(RB-GB)
03.06 (034) Larry Fitzgerald…(WR-Ari) *
04.09 (051) Javon Walker…(WR-Den)
05.06 (062) Kurt Warner…(QB-Ari)
06.09 (079) Jake Plummer…(QB-Den)
07.06 (090) Kellen Winslow…(TE-Cle)
08.09 (107) Frank Gore…(RB-SF) *
09.06 (118) Matt Jones…(WR-Jac) *
10.09 (135) Vernon Davis…(TE-SF)
11.06 (146) Vince Young…(QB-Ten)
12.09 (163) J. Harrison…(RB-Cle)
13.06 (174) Samie Parker…(WR-KC)
14.09 (191) Philadelphia…(DEF-Phi)
15.06 (202) Arizona…(DEF-Ari)
16.09 (219) Nate Kaeding…(K-SD)
QB Warner and Plummer, 2 starters with great potential, both candidates to end the season on the bench. If Plummer can escape the hook, they should do fine for you this year. The chances of Kurt starting all 16 games is mathematically distinguishable from zero, but only if you have a really fast computer.

RB Brown and Green were solid picks at those spots (though I like Caddy better than brown this year, at least under this scoring system.) If you had any sense of flare you would have drafted Lendale White, too. (Too bad Red Grange is retired.) Green is an injury risk, obviously, and a Packers O-Line ahs looked horrible this year. Still, not bad as a starting pair (at least until Green goes down). Gore makes a solid 3rd back in this league. He is an unchallenged starter, just playing for a very bad team that isn’t likely to be running much in the second half of games. Harrison . . . well, I suppose someone has to backup Droughns now that Suggs and William Green are out of teh picture. I think you should have drafted another RB in the mid rounds rather than rely upon your top 3 to be healthy all year (Green has injusry history and Brown has never carried the load for an NFL season), but you might win this gamble.

WR Fitz was pure gold as a keeper. Walker is a great #2, if he can stay healthy. Moonshine has good upside potential as a 3. Samie Parker sees the field most weeks, but I wouldn’t have wasted a roster spot on him. There were other WR’s available near the end with stronger keeper potential (hell, here are better prospects sitting on the waiver wire right now), and if you have to play him this year then something has already gone terribly wrong for you

TE 2 excellent propects. And one mor owner who chooses TE depth over stable depth at RB and WR. You did it better, though. Your top 2 WR’s are strong. You have 3 undisputed starting backs with only Green posing a significant risk for season-long production. And your two TE’s are both high-end prospects, wither of whom could blow up nto a keeper gem next year. Personally, I would have gone fishing in a different pond once I landed Winslow but like any risk, it may work out for you. The other downside is that you have used 2 picks on TE’s, neither of whom has completed consecutive games in the NFL. Potential is an awesome thing, but it is not the same as production.

DEF/K I have no idea why you felt teh need to wrap up both Philly and Arizona on DEF. DEF is the one slot that frankly begs for a matchup-based waiver wire substitution one week out of the year. You have a kicker, too.

keeper potential Winslow, Gore, Jones, Davis, Young. Here is an owner who understands the value of mid/late round fishing. 5 “blue chip” keeper prospects. If you end up considering Parker or Harrison next year, it means something tragic has happened to you this year. Another reason why you should have sought production and depth with those 2 picks.

Mundi Measure Castle is strong and well-supplied. It will not fall to a season-long siege, nor will it be overrun by main force. But there, the Green tower shows signs of damage and repair, and teh supoprting walls of Warner and Plummer are not sturdy. If the castle is to fall, the assault must begin there.

But I sure wish I had a bazooka.

226

Hamlet,

I’m aboslutely disgusted with my pick of Daunte. It was sheer panic. That’s why I picked 2 other QBs so that I’ll have options when I cut him to the waiver wire in week 4.

227

Baltimore Weirdos / Weirddave
01.07 (007) Steve Smith…(WR-Car)
02.08 (022) DeShaun Foster…(RB-Car)
03.07 (035) Randy Moss…(WR-Oak)
04.08 (050) Chris Brown…(RB-Ten)
05.07 (063) Marc Bulger…(QB-StL)
06.08 (078) Mark Clayton…(WR-Bal)
07.07 (091) Larry Johnson…(RB-KC) **
08.08 (106) Antonio Gates…(TE-SD) **
09.07 (119) Musa Smith…(RB-Bal)
10.08 (134) Shane Graham…(K-Cin)
11.07 (147) Seattle…(DEF-Sea)
12.08 (162) Brett Favre…(QB-GB)
13.07 (175) Mewelde Moore…(RB-Min)
14.08 (190) David Givens…(WR-Ten)
15.07 (203) Ben Troupe…(TE-Ten)
16.08 (218) Priest Holmes…(RB-KC)

QB Bulger and Favre, 2 QB’s that I absolutely do not trust this year. Bulger has proven more reliable than I expect before, though, and he may prove me wrong again. Favre is living off past glory. He’s still a great play in a league that does not penalize turnovers (or generally bonehead plays) but he’s not worth much else. If Bulger stays healthy, you won’t need him to be. Of course, Bulger has never started all 16 games in a season. Favre starts 16 games every season, you just don’t want him starting for your team anymore. I love it when he starts against my DEF.

RB You started with a diamond in round 7 (bastard!). Let’s see what setting you purchased to carry that precious gem:
[ul][li]Foster A gemstone, but flawed. A risk to shatter at the slightest impact[/li][li]C. Brown Semi-precious stone, indistinguishable from Lendite and Henrypaz[/li][li]Smith Zircon, sparkles enough to fool the uneducated eye, but a 3rd string knockoff at heart[/li][li]Moore A quality stone, but woefully undervalued by its owners. Highly likely to sit on a shelf and gather dust.[/li][li]Holmes Once a gem worth incalculable riches. Now, alas, shattered beyond repair.[/ul][/li]Perhaps you underestimated how strong the early run no RB’s would be, but you missed a chance to field a dominant cadre. Instead you have a diamond riding on a tin ring, surounded by sparkly glass.

WR Smith and Moss give you one of the finest pairs in the league. I expect Smith to regress to teh mean (but still be strong). I can’t fault you for making him the top WR overall (I had him rated 3rd, but he is a consensus #1 for most sites) but I think you took him too early. James, Williams, or even Peyton Manning would have been better plays, and you could have grabbed Harrison, Wayne, TO or Holt coming back in round 2. I do like Mark Clayton as a situational 3rd WR. The problem is that your backs behind Johnson are so weak that you will likely have to play him quite a few weeks. He isn’t ready for that this year. David Givens is a mirage. He doesn’t really exist this year (of course, neither do any other WR’s who play for “the team in search of a quarterback”. So, 2 strong starters, a servicable (but nothing more) 3rd option. that seems like more than enough, until we get a glance at your jewelry.

TE A monster in round 8. Bastard. troupe isn’t a bad keeper fish in round 15.

DEF/K One each. Check. I like Graham as much as any kicker, which is to say more than a root canal.

keeper potential Clayton is a long shot. Smith s a longer one. Moore is right out. Givens would have to materialize first before he could even be considered. Troupe has potential if only for his price. You had a dominant start to this draft because of quality keepers. You are unlikely to enjoy the same next year (unless you once again stumble onto a gem in trade.)

Mundi Measure Johnson + Gates for a 7th and 8th should have made this team a monster of Jabberwockian proportions. Snicker-snack, I say, snicker-snack. This beast has a soft underbelly, a loose scale, an achilles running back. Sure, if he lands the haymaker 1-2 you’re done for, but if you can pierce that bony shell . . . this beast is vulnerable, I tell you. Fetch my vorpal sword.

228

Culpable Deniability (Nurse Carmen)
01.05 (005) Clinton Portis…(RB-Was)
02.10 (024) Marvin Harrison…(WR-Ind)
03.05 (033) Joseph Addai…(RB-Ind)
04.10 (052) Lawrence Maroney…(RB-NE)
05.05 (061) Muhsin Muhammad…(WR-Chi)
06.10 (080) Heath Miller…(TE-Pit)
07.05 (089) Nate Burleson…(WR-Sea)
08.10 (108) Chris Cooley…(TE-Was) *
09.05 (117) Carolina…(DEF-Car)
10.10 (136) Ben Roethlisberger…(QB-Pit) **
11.05 (145) Brad Johnson…(QB-Min)
12.10 (164) Travis Taylor…(WR-Min) *
13.05 (173) Josh Brown…(K-Sea)
14.10 (192) Ron Dayne…(RB-Den)
15.05 (201) Ashley Lelie…(WR-Atl)
16.10 (220) T. Jackson…(QB-Min)

I’ve got mixed emotions about this team. Portis, Roethlisberger and Maroney play key roles in my big money league. However, trying to be objective and look for explanations why this team will fall to mine in this league I see all kinds of problems. Each player has major injury issues to start the season and none are said to be a sure thing. (I’ve got Steve Smith too, hurmph!) On the whole there’s too many what ifs to really love this team and depth is a serious issue at every position.

QB – Roethlisberger, B. Johnson, T. Jackson
This group probably won’t be an issue. The pessimist in me wants to point out the Big Ben seems cursed right now and most likely will miss the first 2 games of the season. He’s also never been a big FFL QB and lost a great bail-out target in Randle El, not to mention the threat of Bettis pounding the middle. Still, spending only a 10th rounder on him puts those complaints to bed. Getting Johnson with the next pick is a good idea too, I think he’s about the right value and a smart backup since he’s assured the starting job. Jackson as a handcuff to Johnson shows good forethought.

RB – Portis, Addai, Maroney, Dayne
One word, shallow. For as well fortified as the QB situation looks and how well planned the process was, the RB situation is the exact opposite. Portis was the biggest risk of the first round worthy RBs and Addai and Maroney have real questions about playing time. They aren’t really good keeper options either. This league requires 3 productive RBs to succeed, and if Rhodes and Dillon grasp and hold their starting jobs in week one you’ll be in a desperate situation all season long. Last year I drank the JJ Arrington kool-aid and paid the price all season long. Dayne……um, well, yeah.

WR – Harrison, Muhammad, Burleson, T. Taylor, A. Lelie
Wow, that’s quite the drop off after Marvin there. There’s not much point in discussing him, everyone knows what you getting there and that’s a hell of a statement when discussing fantasy WRs. The rest of those guys……wow, trouble looms. Moose is a total and utter pig. Never mind that this is the Bears offense we’re talking about led by the iffy Rex Grossman, Moose has managed to reveal himself to be a royal prima donna. I’d stomach it for a top flight WR, I mean that’s what they do, but he’s old, slow and drops many easy passes. How can you blame the QB when it hits you in the palms? Burleson might do something there if D. Jackson is a no-go, otherwise there’ll be a shortage of balls for this youngster to show anything at all. Taylor might actually be a better option with the shortage of talent in Minny, he’ll certainly get some looks. If Lelie starts walking Vicks dog and mowing his lawn he might become a fave, I’m not betting on it though.

TE – Miller, Cooley
Why the hell are so many people stocking up on two TEs? And for pete’s sake, why would you do it when one was your keeper! If you’re going to use a keeper slot on a TE you should probably block the rest of the TEs from your rankings. Still, both these guys should be ok, but I expect more than a handful of goose eggs from both with some big games sprinkled in. That’ll be frustrating….heh.

K – Brown
Nice. Top 10 kicker in the 13th round, that’s the goal.

DEF – Carolina
They’ll be good, no doubt, they won’t be 4 rounds better than Jacksonville and 7 round better than Dallas though.

Summary – The fact that you secured a safe and productive QB tandem (with possible keeper/handcuff late) would initially lead one to think you’d be set to have a great draft with great depth. Boy would you be wrong. Beyond your top RB and top WR you’ve got nothing resembling a sure thing. This is a natural situation in a keeper league this insanely deep, however your secondary players are basically all or nothing. It’s not as if Addai is likely to just “under perform”, it’ll more accurately be described as an utter and complete bust. The difference being a 150 yard, 0 TD season versus a “disappointing” 750 yard, 7 TD season. Lets face it, more than a couple of these guys will be picking splinters out of their asses and in the end that’ll screw ya.

Final Grade: C+

Potential Keepers: T. Jackson, Maroney, Big Ben, Lelie

229

I try not to let facts get in the way of a good anecdote.

Hah, panic might be an understatement. It’s a perfect segway for my draft review: The Ugly.

So it starts off very promising. Generally good spirits, a quick sample of the notifications, final minute ticks down, and we’re off. Picks go pretty much as expected until…

1.11: VarlosZ takes keeper Lamont Jordan, substitutes Brian Westbrook.

Oof! That came out of nowhere, and still in the first round no less. Caught me completely off guard, but luckily Jordan is a 3rd round keeper, so it should be corrected fairly quickly and then we’ll be good to go, right? Wrong…

2-9: furt takes keeper Warrick Dunn, substitutes Ahman Green.
…10…
2-11: BabaBooey takes keeper Frank Gore, substitutes Terrell Owens.
2-12: neuroman takes keeper Larry Johnson, substitutes Reggie Wayne.
…13…14…1…2…
3-3: neuroman takes keeper Tom Brady, substitutes Daunte Culpepper.

This was, in hindsight, pure comedy gold. Three fuckups in four picks, followed by a second consecutive fuckup by neuroman five picks later. Seriously…Larry Johnson? You actually thought Larry Johnson fell to you at 2-12?! That’s funny as shit. I can just imagine the inner monologue: “Hey, Larry Johnson’s still on the board; I’ll pair him with Tomlinson and have the bestest draft ever!”

At this point, the peanut gallery starts grumbling that maybe this draft is FUBAR, and we need to use the alternate league. Well, if it is beyond repair, no harm in playing it out a little longer to see what happens. So we press on…

3-13: Omni corrects Jordan fuckup by taking Brian Westbrook.
3-14: Mundi corrects Warrick Dunn fuckup by taking Ahman Green.

Hey, things are all of a sudden looking up. Two of the five issues have been resolved. Maybe we can catch back up to even…

4-8: Weirdos takes fix-pick Terrell Owens, substitutes Chris Brown.

Okay, in all fairness, I really can’t blame Dave here. He actually was very disciplined about checking the keeper list throughout the draft, but of course the fix-picks can’t be on the list since they just became “untouchable” within the last 15 minutes.

4-12: neuroman corrects Tom Brady fuckup by drafting Daunte Culpepper for Mundi.

Well, one step backward and one step forward, and things did appear to be looking up, so they must be looking up again…

5-12: Wilson takes fix-pick Chris Brown, substitutes Lendale White.

And even worse, he’s bailing to go eat dinner. At the time, I remember thinking his next pick was a fuckup, but in actuality it was an ideal correction:

6-3: Wilson (on autopilot) pulls fix-pick Lendale White off the board onto the correct roster; his.

Sure, that pick was supposed to be keeper Jake Delhomme, but anything that pulls a fix-pick off the board and onto the correct roster is by far the most useful way to go. Score one for the autodraft.

6-5: Crabby Hermits takes keeper Terry Glenn, substitutes Rod Smith.

At this point, I started wondering how the hell we managed to get by with so few keeper fuckups last year. Are we all drunk or something? Is this draft even salvageable?

7-7: Weirdos corrects Larry Johnson fuckup by taking Reggie Wayne.

A full round without issues is capped by a correction by Dave, so maybe all hope isn’t lost.

8-9: Quakers keeper pick Frank Gore off board, so takes placeholder Jake Delhomme.

This is actually starting to get mildly complicated, but it’s another full round without issues capped by a correction. And this correction is a double-whammy; it “uses up” a reserved spot (Gore’s original slot) while pulling a reserved player (Delhomme) off the board, so it gets us two steps closer to even.

9-5: Nurse Carmen takes keeper Chicago, substitutes Carolina.

No! C’mon, Chicago is on the list. Although it did take a pick or two before anyone realized it.

11-8: Hamlet takes fix-pick Carolina, substitutes Indianapolis.

Ugh, moving further in the wrong direction.

12-11: BabaBooey corrects Chicago fuckup by taking Indianapolis.

Another double-plus correction, resolving both of the previous two fuckups. None of these double-corrections registered with me at the time though, as so many things had gone wrong that my brain had turned to mush. That’s how Davenport got logged when in reality nobody had taken him. That mistake was actually technically unfixable, but it was the only one, and by now we’re so deep into the draft that it’s chalked up as an acceptable loss.

14-7: Hamlet takes fix-pick Rod Smith, substitutes Lawrence Tynes.

The final straw, but the camel survives. One single correction can right the entire ship:

14-11 BabaBooey corrects Terry Glenn fuckup by taking Lawrence Tynes.

And that’s a wrap. Going by this history, I am amazed we managed to pull it off. I can barely grasp what the hell happened while writing this post; trying to figure it out during the live draft with that relentless countdown timer mocking me seems impossible in hindsight. Thanks to all who pitched in to help keep track of what corrections were needed when; particularly Mundi, Omni and I think Munch jumped in there a couple times. I was worthless after about round 10.

That truly was a draft for the ages.

230

Moridwon / Hamlet
01.08 (008) Edgerrin James…(RB-Ari)
02.07 (021) Steven Jackson…(RB-StL) **
03.08 (036) Donald Driver…(WR-GB)
04.07 (049) Derrick Mason…(WR-Bal)
05.08 (064) Tony Gonzalez…(TE-KC)
06.07 (077) Trent Green…(QB-KC)
07.08 (092) Isaac Bruce…(WR-StL)
08.07 (105) M. Jones-Drew…(RB-Jac)
10.07 (133) Jon Kitna…(QB-Det)
11.08 (148) Indianapolis…(DEF-Ind)
12.07 (161) Doug Gabriel…(WR-Oak)
13.08 (176) Michael Turner…(RB-SD)
14.07 (189) Lawrence Tynes…(K-KC)
14.11 (193) Terry Glenn…(WR-Dal) *
15.08 (204) Najeh Davenport…(RB-GB)
16.07 (217) Cincinnati…(DEF-Cin)

QB Trent Green has been a reliable, 2nd tier fantasy QB for years. This year he get introduced to a Herm Edwards offense. He still doesn’t have a #1 WR worth he label, and his O-line has suddenly sprung holes. It’s not a bad pick, and he was probably the best QB on the board by 6.7 but he worries me this year. Kitna is an excellent backup, though, with potential big payoff if he excels in the Martz system. Nothing wrong here, and a chance for things to go very right.

RB Edge scares me, mostly because of the Arizona O-line, which seems geared more to backing up slowly rather than explofing forward. Works okay for pass protection, not so good for those tough goal-line carries. Edge is a beast, so he might be able to make it work, but only Portis carries more risk among the top backs. Luckily you back him up with Stephen Jackson, a bargain keeper in round 2. I love Jackson this year, anb if Edge can turn around Arizona’s ground game you will have the best 1-2 punch in the league.

And you had better, because you didn’t bother to take a #3. Jones-Drrew is more of a 4, with flash admitedly, but he’ll see the field only as a returner this year. Turner is a good handcuff, but LaDanian play s through injuries like no back since Sweetness. Turner will be lucky to see 60 carries this year. Ditto for Davenport, except he will be lucky to see 1 carry, since the Packers cut him on Saturday. I hear he has a grea future in waste management, though. He is apparently willing to think outside the box.

WR Driver and Mason are 2 reliable #1 receivers getting the all from veteran QB’s with whom they share a long relationship. That’s a great recipe for solid production, though neither one is likely to be spectacular. Bruce is on the downside, and I suspect he will be losing some snaps to Curtis thiw year, even when healthy, but he makes a good bye week or situational sub. Unfortunately, since you don’t have a #3 RB you might find yourself having to play Bruce every week. That’s not likely to be a good thing. Gabriel was a nice reach, but I am not among those who think he suddenly becomes a viable #1 WR just by putting on a Pats uniform. Good potential upside, but I don’t think you want him in your lineup most weeks. Luckily, you finagled the Terry Glenn keeper from some desperate owner in a trade. I suspect glenn will soon (if he has not already) supplant Bruce in your lineup as the #3 WR. Of course, Glenn will be maddening some weeks as well, but if TO turns into TO Glenn will become your saviour. All-in-all, a very solid group.

TE Gonzo is still a man in this league. Solid value a 5.8. And finally someone else who realizes a second tight end is a wasted pick. That’s what week 5 waiver wire thrashing is all about. Unfortunately, Gonzo’s bye is week 3. Luckily, you already have a player to shitca-- um, shit-basket.

DEF/K 1 each. Both good.

keeper potential Lots of “maybes”: Jones-Drew, Kitna, Gabriel, Tynes. But they all come with significant question marks or impediments to full development. Glenn is eligible for one more year @ 12.x, and I suspect that he will be worth it.

Mundi Measure This Dane has nothing to be melancholy about. He easily outclasses Fortinbras at both RB and WR. Sure, Hamlets QB judgment has always been a bit suspect, but if he can remember his pentameter then all the world could be his stage. He has less upside than some, but fewer questions than many and no glaring weaknesses other than 3rd RB.

Solid. Solid enough to get to teh playoffs, but you will need James to justify your love in order to take the final curtain call.

231

Chitwood - TBA / Jimmy Chitwood
01.09 (009) Cadillac Williams…(RB-TB)
02.06 (020) Reggie Bush…(RB-NO)
03.09 (037) Mike Bell…(RB-Den)
04.06 (048) Anquan Boldin…(WR-Ari) **
05.09 (065) Marion Barber…(RB-Dal)
06.06 (076) Donte Stallworth…(WR-Phi)
07.09 (093) Drew Brees…(QB-NO)
08.06 (104) Drew Bennett…(WR-Ten)
09.09 (121) L.J. Smith…(TE-Phi)
10.06 (132) Antonio Bryant…(WR-SF) *
11.09 (149) Jay Cutler…(QB-Den)
12.06 (160) Baltimore…(DEF-Bal)
13.09 (177) Cedric Cobbs…(RB-Den)
14.06 (188) David Akers…(K-Phi)
15.09 (205) Ronald Curry…(WR-Oak)
16.06 (216) Aaron Rodgers…(QB-GB)

QB Drew Brees + 2 backups with keeper potential. Damn, and I thought Sean Payton was risking a lot on one surgically repaired shoulder this year. This is pretty much teh definition of high risk for little reward (at least this year). You might end up with 2 decent QB’s on your keeper list for next year, but it is quite possible that you will be looking toward next year sooner that you might like. Brees’ shoulders were never that broad to begin with.

RB Caddy is a good beginning. Bush was a major reach for this year, and can’t be kept. Someone named Bell will have a ggod year in the Denver backfield. If you picked the right one, then you have a quality pair of starters. If not, then you better pray for Julius Jones to get nicked up. Because Barber is a solid back, good hands, good blocker, hard runner. I loved him as a golden gopher, and I would love him as a Cowboy if the Tuna would just get over his fixation with Jones’ “breakaway potential”. ugh Barber + Bush give you 2 good options for bye week and stuatinal subs, but choosing which one to play each week might drive you mad. If Mike loses the starting job to Tatum, you are in for a nightmare season @ RB. Cobbs was a desperation handcuff. You should track down Mike Shanahan and slap him for making you resort to such a pick.

WR I love Boldin. He’s a grown-ass man! (gotta love that line.) I like him better than Fitz as a player, but he does get fewer looks inside the 10. Still, great start to your WR corps in round 4. Bennett is a mirage, just like Givens and any other WR waiting for passes from the phantom QB. The Eagles apparently believe Stallworh is ready to overcome past issues and be a #1 WR in this league. the Eagles have felt the same thing about: Reggie Brown, TO, Freddie Mitchell, Todd Pinkston and James Thrash. Strangely, I remain skeptical. Antonio Bryant has Alex Smith throwing to him, but he did manage 1000 yds in Cleveland last year with charlie Frye chucking the ball. He might end up your #2, and you might not hate it if he does. Curry had great upside before his injury last year. He might have it again now that Gabriel is out of the picture, but I don’t expect 2 WR’s to put up strong fantasy numbers on an Art Shell team, and I don’t think Ron is going to take catches away from Randy. Good keeper value, though.

TE Decent one, not too expensive. No superfluous backup. Check.

DEF/K 2 good ones, didn’t over pay. Check.

keeper potential Barber will be worth a 3 next year, if Dallas can escape the spell of Julius Jones. If not, he won’t. Stallworth might surprise me and be worth a 4 next year. And Salma Hayak might still return my call (in person, not through that nasty lawyer). Bryant should be a solid keeper again. Curry could be worth another year. Cutler, of course, has teh highest potential, but you might have to wait another year to realize it.

Mundi Measure If the Bell tolls for thee, then your season might not be Donne until Christmas. You will have to keep winning the coin flips between Bush & Barber, though. And there is a dark spectre looming over it all. Ask not for whom the Labrum tears; it tears for thee.

232

Crabby Hermits / The Mad Hermit
01.10 (010) Peyton Manning…(QB-Ind)
02.05 (019) Jamal Lewis…(RB-Bal)
03.10 (038) Hines Ward…(WR-Pit)
04.05 (047) T.J. Houshmandzadeh…(WR-Cin)
05.10 (066) Alge Crumpler…(TE-Atl)
06.05 (075) Rod Smith…(WR-Den)
07.10 (094) Drew Bledsoe…(QB-Dal) *
08.05 (103) Sam Gado…(RB-GB)
09.10 (122) Willie Parker…(RB-Pit) *
10.05 (131) Pittsburgh…(DEF-Pit) **
11.10 (150) Antwaan Randle El…(WR-Was)
12.05 (159) Marty Booker…(WR-Mia)
13.10 (178) John Kasay…(K-Car)
14.05 (187) LaBrandon Toefield…(RB-Jac)
15.10 (206) Dante Hall…(WR-KC)
16.05 (215) Nick Goings…(RB-Car)

QB Peyton’s Place. Bledsoe isn’t a horrible 1 week sub, especially since Dallas play sHouston in week 6, but if you ake the stud QB, you might as well venture a pick with keeper potential for your backup. It isn’t like your team will be able to recover if Peyton goes down and you have to play Bledsoe every week. So why not look to the future for a backup? Still, that’s a quibble for next year. This year you are set.

RB Parker was a great keeper, and you had better hope he stays healthy. Lewis carries a high risk, and he didn’t show me much in the preseason. Gado is a backup. toefield is a backup. Goings is a backups backup. You will find yourself praying equally hard for your backs to stay healthy and for other backs to go down. Having Parker gave you the freedom to grab Peyton in round 1, but it didn’t give you the ability to ignore the RB position in for teh first half of the draft. My goodness, you took a backup QB (behind Peyton!) before you took your 3rd running back. You must truly believe that Jamal is a rehabilitated man. But in the language of geopolitics, it would have been better to trust and ver-- er, very quickly draft another starting RB.

WR Ward is a good start. Housh would be a fine #3 or situational starter, but he was a reach as your #2. Mason, Walker, and even Joe Horn would have been better picks and were still on the board. Rod Smith continues to defy time. He has put up better numbers than Housh for longer than Housh has been in the NFL. He was a good grab in round 6, even with Walker taking some of the opportunities this year. I’m not buying Randle-El, but Booker might have been a steal. Hall will never be more than he was 3 years ago. With 5 other WR on your roster, this was a bad pick. You should have gone fishing for a deep keeper prospect.

6 WR’s give you good depth, but you stumbled a bit on Housh, which keeps you from fielding a top-flight set every week. Good news is your WR depth mitigates your lack of quality at RB. You will probably find yourself playing 3 WR every week. Bad news is that playing 3 WR every week has rarely been a strong play over the long haul in this league.

TE Crumpler is a good one. You would have done better to grab a starting RB at 4, then a second Wr at 5 and a TE later, but Crumpler is as good as any other in the second tier.

DEF/K 1 each. Check.

keeper potential Gado and Toefield, if injuries bring them to the front. Randle-El only if I am very wrong about him. Maybe Booker.

Mundi Measure Your season depends upon the health and productvity of Jamal Lewis or the ill-health of Ahman green and Fred Taylor. The second is probably your best bet. Peyton can cover for a multitude of sins, but you will need him to if you want to step from “solid prospect” to “championship contender”.

233

Varlos’ Zzzzzzz / VarlosZ
01.11 (011) Brian Westbrook…(RB-Phi)
02.04 (018) Matt Hasselbeck…(QB-Sea)
03.11 (039) Willis McGahee…(RB-Buf) **
04.04 (046) Darrell Jackson…(WR-Sea)
05.11 (067) Jason Witten…(TE-Dal)
06.04 (074) Michael Clayton…(WR-TB)
07.11 (095) Mike Anderson…(RB-Bal)
08.04 (102) Deion Branch…(WR-NE)
09.11 (123) Byron Leftwich…(QB-Jac)
10.04 (130) Troy Williamson…(WR-Min)
11.11 (151) Roddy White…(WR-Atl)
12.04 (158) Jason Campbell…(QB-Was)
13.11 (179) Michael Pittman…(RB-TB)
14.04 (186) M. Lewis…(TE-Jac)
15.11 (207) Jason Elam…(K-Den)
16.04 (214) New England…(DEF-NE)

QB MxGahee as a keeper gave you the opportunity to accept some risk in rounds 1 & 2. You used that opportunity to gamble on Westbrook and reach for Hasselbeck. These moves will haunt you for the rest of the year. You ended up with a solid second tier QB and a runnignback situation that will be discussed below. Leftwich is adequate as a 1-wek sub, but you grabbed him too ealry. The Jags do play the Jets on Hasselbeck’s bye, but that might not be such a good thing. The Jets might once again be so pitiful that teams rarely have to put teh ball in the air during the second half. I do like Campbell as a keeper prospect, but I would like him better if he had managed to beat out Collins for the backup slot. In general, the guys you have are not horrible, but you paid too much for each and every one.

RB Which leads us to your RB’s. Westbrook hasn’t played all 16 game sina a season, ever. He hasn’t had a 1000 yard rushing season as a pro. He has never scored 10 TD’s as a pro. And he starts the season already a little bit gimpy. These are not ideal qualities in a #1 pick. Admitedly, the pickings were getting slim at this point, but combine this with hasselbeck at #2 and you are putting a whole lot of hope on a long-shot exacta. McGahee was rgeat value in round 3, but he carries risk of his own. I think he will bounce back this year, but remember what he did to you last year. Did you really want to turn your exacta into a trifecta betting on McGahee’s knees? Anderson has a chance to be productive, but counting on a backup in your 3rd RB slot is always risky. (Too bad I already played the Risky busines card. Thsi team is starting to look more like Tom Cruise every pick. If this keeps up, I’ll queue the them to Mission Impossible.) Pittman was worth a stab late. If you have to play him, he will put up at least a couple of points for you, but chances are that if you have to play him you are only playing for pride at that point, anyway.

WR Jackson, Clayton, Branch, Williamson, White . . . Dah dah dah. Dah dah dah. Your missions, should you choose to accept it (and really, what other chioce have you got?) find 3 quality starters out of this group each week. Good luck with that.

TE Solid TE, but will TO steal some of his red zone looks? M Lewis has had some hype as a prospect. I guess you believed it.

DEF/K Like your kicker a lot. Hate your DEF. They were a horrible fantasy D last year, and I don’t see what they have done to change that significantly. On the other hand, this is trivial to correct on the waiver wire.

keeper potential Clayton might bounce back with a monster season. Branch might land somewhere he feels like honoring a contract next year. Williamson and White probably will show enough to be considered in rounds 8 & 9 next year. Campbell has good upside, if he can at least move past Collins sometime this year. And the only reason I can imagine for picking Lewis is keeper potential.

Mundi Measure this team will self destruct in 10 weeks.

234

Fourth and Nineteen / Wilson
01.12 (012) Corey Dillon…(RB-NE)
02.03 (017) Kevin Jones…(RB-Det)
03.12 (040) Deuce McAllister…(RB-NO)
04.03 (045) Andre Johnson…(WR-Hou)
05.12 (068) Lendale White…(RB-Ten)
06.03 (073) Jake Delhomme…(QB-Car) *
07.12 (096) Ernest Wilford…(WR-Jac)
08.03 (101) Chris Perry…(RB-Cin)
09.12 (124) Eric Moulds…(WR-Hou)
10.03 (129) Jerry Porter…(WR-Oak)
11.12 (152) Jerramy Stevens…(TE-Sea)
12.03 (157) Keyshawn Johnson…(WR-Car)
13.12 (180) J. Klopfenstein…(TE-StL)
14.03 (185) Philip Rivers…(QB-SD) *
15.12 (208) M. Vanderjagt…(K-Dal)
16.03 (213) Dallas…(DEF-Dal)
QB Delhomme and Rivers were worth their keeper slots, but neither one will win you amny games. Delhomme is barely above average as a fantasy QB. Rivers is not Big Ben. What we will find out this year is whether he is also not Ryan Leaf. I’m guessing that he is closer to Trent Dilfer. rehgardless, your hopes don’t hinge upon him this year.

RB Dillon, Jones, & Deuce make a nice 1-2-3 combo in this league. RB’s were a definite premium in this draft, and you got 3 starters. Unfortunately, 2 of them have serious playing time threats behind them, playing time threats with 1st round signing bonuses, and publicity, and hopes of a whole freaking’ city trailing in their wake. And those same 2 starters have recent injury issues to overcome. I will be very surprised if you have 3 starting RB’s by week 12. Because Lendale White isn’t going to become one, and neither is Chris Perry. These guys look to be a solid group, built with sturdy timber, but there is sawdust on the ground and termite mounds nearby. One stiff wind could blow these walls down.

WR RB’s i the first 3 rounds left you with Andre Johnson as your top WR. Ouch. I like Johnson to bounce back this year, but not that far. Pairing him with Moulds gives you the best 2 receivers on a bad offense that is trying to get better by focusing on the running game. Wilford is one of 3 guys in Jacksonville, and I don’t think that when the dust settles he will be the guy everyone wants to have. Porter is a headcase with talent, playing beside another headcase with much more talent, in an offense that won’t support 2 fantasy WR’s. Oh, and he might get beat out by Ronald Curry. Again. Keyshawn was a nice pickup late, but he gives you just another mid-leel fantasy WR. You can ride him for a game or two in a pinch, but he won’t take you very far (or very fast.)

TE Stevens should be fine, once he is back in the lineup. Klopfenstein is a risky bet to carry you until Stevens returns. He has some keeper value, perhaps, but you should have grabbes an established TE to cover you once you determined to take Stevens and wait for him to be healthy.

DEF/K good ones taken late, excpet for Vandy’s injury, of course. Waiver wire fixes that in a jiffy.

keeper potential White, maybe (though I am skeptical. He smells like Anthony Thomas to me.) Wilford, maybe, but I’d bet more on both Moonshine and “the other, other Williams”. Perry – only if Rudi goes down. Porter, if he receives a accepts attitude adjustement. Stevens, maybe, though keeping a TE not named Gates will be har dto justify. Klopfenstein: Eh? Rivers is strong bet.

Mundi Measure It sucks picking at the end of this league, but the best looking part of this team is the RB’s, and they’re hollow. Fourth and Nineteen will be an apt metaphor for your season.

235

Gone Pear Shaped / Omniscient
01.13 (013) Julius Jones…(RB-Dal)
02.14 (028) Thomas Jones…(RB-Chi) *
03.01 (029) Chris Chambers…(WR-Mia)
04.02 (044) Donovan McNabb…(QB-Phi)
04.14 (056) Joe Horn…(WR-NO)
06.02 (072) Reggie Brown…(WR-Phi)
07.03 (087) Dallas Clark…(TE-Ind)
08.13 (111) Vernand Morency…(RB-Hou)
09.13 (125) Brandon Lloyd…(WR-Was)
10.02 (128) Maurice Hicks…(RB-SF)
11.13 (153) Chris Simms…(QB-TB)
12.13 (167) Kevin Curtis…(WR-StL) *
13.01 (169) Jacksonville…(DEF-Jac)
14.14 (196) Dominic Rhodes…(RB-Ind) *
15.13 (209) Jeff Wilkins…(K-StL)
16.14 (224) Brandon Stokley…(WR-Ind)
QB I’m not a big fan of McNabb this year. I expect that he will have far fewer rushing stats to push him “over the top” as a fantasy QB. But the Eagles will continue to throw far more than they run, and he will be a chunky play most weeks. Simms was a nice grab late, with good upside. (Though he’s working on a 1-year contract and Gruden loves the rokie playing behind him.) A solid pair. Well worth tripling teh blinds.

RB The Jones brother sure look prety, don’t they, but they both might be losing significant carries to the young guns behind them this year. I think you got the better guy in Chicago, and the worse guy in Dallas, but what realy matters is how they will be used. J Jones will be off the field on 3rd downs and most short yardage plays. Tuna will feed him often betweent he 20’s, though. T Jones does everything better than Benson, but that isn’t always enough to keep the high draft pick from taking your job. Sometime this year, Benson will see significant playing tme, if only so the Bears can figure out what he is worth. trying (and failing) to keep up with the Joneses, you have Dominic Rhodes, who you kept for a song and who will be a steal for a couple of weeks until Addai pushes him aside. Then he will be a decent situational sub. Still great value @ #14. Morency and Hicks are ambulance chasers, and Morency now faces competition for his particular ghoul watch.

In really like Thomas Jones, but I fear his coach/GM may toss some of his value into the Benson burner. I really don’t like Julius Jones, but it looks like Tuna will keep feeding him until he is proven to be utterly unreliable. I really am ambivalent about Rhodes, and his coach/GM share that feeling, which is why he will be losing carries to Addai. If all 3 of your guys hit their upside, you will be playing on Christmas. If they all fall short (which is a definite possiblitiy with each one) then you will be staring up at .500 with a look of shock and betrayal.

WR Chambers has been on the verge of stud-dom. Many predict him to burst through that barrier this year. I would like ot be one of those, but I don’t trust Culpepper’s accuracy or Harrington’s brain enough to make that plunge. He’s a solid starter, though, and a good value in round 3. Horn still has some mileage left in him, particularly now that Stallworth isn’t flashing that tempting 4.2 speed on the opposite flank. Reggie Brown is not a #1 receiver. But he may be a decent situational sub. You problem will come late in the season, when odds are that at least one of your RB’s is not longer a reliable start. You might find yourself turning to Brown as an every week flex player. You might find yourself losing a lot of games that way. Lloyd will be a middling WR, much like Brown but in an offense that won’t throw so much. Curtis might become the saviour of this group, if Bruce gets tweaked again this year, and he will be worth keeping again next year. Stokley is a handcuff WR, and that isn’t usually something one needs.

TE Clark is solid.

DEF/K One each. good boy.

keeper potential Morency & Hicks only if people drop out of their way. Simms has good upide. Curtis is almost a lock. If Rhodes holds off Addai he will again be a steal.

Mundi Measure WB solid, but not spectacular. WR’s solid, but not spectacular. TE solid, but not spectacular. DEF solid, but not spectacular. K solid, but not spectacular. Oh who cares. Everything hinges on your top 3 RB’s. And your top 3 RB’s all have rgeat situations in week 1 with huge question marks for the long haul. Which way is Dungy’s wind blowing? Is the Tuna Jonesing for a Julius? Will TJ get him some Lovie? How the hell should I know? Flip three coins and call me when you make the playoffs.

236

Okay – I am done for teh night. If I think of anything to say about my own picks, I’ll post it tomorrow.

237

Fightin’ Quakers (furt)
01.06 (006) Ronnie Brown…(RB-Mia)
02.09 (023) Ahman Green…(RB-GB)
03.06 (034) Larry Fitzgerald…(WR-Ari) *
04.09 (051) Javon Walker…(WR-Den)
05.06 (062) Kurt Warner…(QB-Ari)
06.09 (079) Jake Plummer…(QB-Den)
07.06 (090) Kellen Winslow…(TE-Cle)
08.09 (107) Frank Gore…(RB-SF) *
09.06 (118) Matt Jones…(WR-Jac) *
10.09 (135) Vernon Davis…(TE-SF)
11.06 (146) Vince Young…(QB-Ten)
12.09 (163) J. Harrison…(RB-Cle)
13.06 (174) Samie Parker…(WR-KC)
14.09 (191) Philadelphia…(DEF-Phi)
15.06 (202) Arizona…(DEF-Ari)
16.09 (219) Nate Kaeding…(K-SD)

This team looks really nice on paper. Every position was addressed and there’s some good keeper potential hanging around. Then again, all that balance comes without a real stud to carry this team. I’m not sure that you can win this league with out that. We constantly bemoan the depth of the league and the desperation involved in finding reliable starters at WR and RB, but rarely does anyone find that and find a true stud. I guess time will tell this year since I don’t see a single loaded squad. There’s a bunch of teams with balance and a bunch with a couple studs and a bunch of holes. We’ll have to check in come playoff time and see which mindset wins out.

QB – Warner, Plummer, V. Young
I like this combo and there’s a chance, not a likely one, but a chance nonetheless that Kurt Warner will stay healthy and light it up this season. Everyone loves the Cards this season and everyone loves the weapons on offense. Edge’s superior pass blocking could be just the key to keeping Kurt healthy. I’m wagering that Leinart will be starting by midseason, but if we’re all going to talk about the “chance” this will happen it necessarily implies there’s a chance it won’t. With Edge and more mature WRs he might put up numbers just barely south of Palmer and Manning. Plummer also has the potential to take a step forward this year with the addition of Javon Walker. Uncertainty at RB might boost his stats a touch as well. He also probably has a little better chance at holding his job than Warner, but you can’t deny he was a gamer during the regular season last year. Vince Young will be a bust of mammoth proportions, but if Leinart and Cutler end up starting I’m wagering that Young will be too. The symmetry of those picks dovetails nicely. The pessimist of course can easily point out that by mid season all three guys could be riding the pine and you won’t be finding their backups on the waiver wire any time soon, and let’s not forget that you used up 2 high picks on the position and aren’t exactly rock solid. Lucky for you that you landed starting WRs and RBs (and had #3s as keepers) before gambling on this position.

RB – R. Brown, A. Green, F. Gore, J. Harrison
You did a fantastic job of securing 3 locks to start. Brown could be a monster, but most likely will just be solid and consistent, and Ahman Green will get a legitimate chance to prove he’s back to full speed. He’s young enough (and the injuries saved him some hits) to assume he might be able to recapture old form. He’ll be one of those options that Favre trusts out of the gate, though he does face some really stout run defenses this season. Gore has looked great and so long as he stays healthy you’re in good shape, Hicks will steal carries though, he looked dynamic in the preseason. Great value without a doubt. If Harrison is getting starts for you, you won’t be the only team in real serious trouble.

WR – Fitzgerald, Walker, M. Jones, S. Parker
This crew is very shallow, taking that second TE and QB early is costing you, but the front 3 are bordering on awesome. If you avoid injury here you’ll be set for a great year. Fitz and Jones were shrewd keepers and Walker was taken at just the right spot. If things fall apart in Arizona you’re doubly screwed, but if that Warner gamble pays off Fitz will make a great doubler. Ditto Javon Walker. You might be the team most heavily depending on 2 NFL franchises successes.

TE – Winslow, V. Davis
Not only did you grab 2 TEs, you grabbed two gambles. One will probably pan out and I suspect you’ll end up kicking the other to the waiver wire at the expense of any possible keeper value. It all might work out if you’re able to net a solid breakout WR in the process.

K – Kaeding
Eh, unspectacular, and with LT there I don’t expect this team to struggle in the redzone. Thankfully you didn’t waste any value on him.

DEF – Philly, Arizona
Both have issues but if you are able to wisely play matchups here they could be an effective group. ‘Zona is probably the better of the two, especially looking at the competition, and they might benefit if that dome turns out to be deafening.

Summary – This is probably the best constructed draft so far. The keepers and draft choices fall into line almost perfectly. Using keepers to add depth to RB and WR and using those first 4 picks effectively to garner starters. Addressing the skill positions before touching a QB is effective but the only issue I have is taking two QBs that are in peril of losing their job. Instead of Plummer I’d have gone with another WR there and taken one of the certain starters taken around the 10th round. (Leftwich, Favre, Kitna, Simms). Of course, with Fitz and Javon paired up I see the logic. Just because the draft fell into place nicely doesn’t mean it’s a dominant team. Still, it’s probably more bulletproof than most of the other teams due to the balance across the key positions.

Final Grade: B

Potential Keepers: Gore, Jones, Davis, Young.

238

Here’s a note that you might find interesting.

239

I think that all of you guys who are hating on Musa Smith are missing the boat here. Even considering that he and his leg left the field in seperate ambulances two years ago, he looked SHARP this pre-season. I expect him to pass Mike Anderson for the backup spot this year, and if Lewis goes down, he’ll challenge for the #1 spot. I may be wrong, of course, but stay tuned. Also, even though I don’t usually do this, Holmes was simply a handcuff pick to LJ. I didn’t really draft for keepers that much, this team is designed to win this year. We’ll see how it goes.

[sub]P.S. Omni, hurry up and finish the rest of the draft, wouldja? stamps foot[/sub]

240

I thought I would do this one a bit differently; I’ll discuss my strategy going in, and any tactical adjustements I made duringth draft.

trade period
I have 5 good keeper prospects coming into the draft, including 2 starting RB’s. My plan was to trade away 2 of the keepers anf improve my draft position as much as possible. Looking at other prospective keeper, it was clear the RB’s would be at a premium, and three wasn’t much chance I would get to really good ones on the corner at 14&15 like I managed last year. That meant I had to keep at least one of my RB’s. Taylor was the better value @ 9.14; I projected Dunn for beter numbers this year. I would happily have kept both if I had found trades for both receivers, but I was also determined to keep Brady in round 4, mostly because I knew I wanted to reach for one of the rookie QB’s this year, and I wanted a sure-fire 15 game starter. With Palmer already off the board, only Manning was a better option at QB, and I doubted I would have a shot at him. A it turned out, I got a good offer for Taylor. I then found a perplexingly poor market for either Moss or Glenn, so I ended up trading Glenn for less than I thought he was worth (but it was still better than nothing. I did end up grabbing extra 3rd, 9th, and 10th round picks, moving entirely out of rounds 15 & 16.

Predraft
It seemed clear that there would be no Rudi&Dominic waiting for me at the end of round 1 this time, so I planned to take a RB/WR combination on the corner. The extra 3rd round pick let me make that choice, and I hoped to get my 3rd RB there. Dunn and Brady were keepers and would leave me with 3RB’s, a top WR, and a top QB coming out of round 4. I hoped to grab a top TE in round 5, then keep Moss @ 6.13. My plan for the remaining rounds was:
[ul][li]7 RB[/li][li]8 WR[/li][li]9 QB[/li][li]9 WR[/li][li]10 RB[/li][li]10 WR[/li][li]11 K[/li][li]13 DEF[/li][li]14 wild card either a keeper prospect or a backup TE/K/DEF to sub out on my first bye.[/li][/ul]

Draft Day
First round went as I expected, and then some. I was horrified to find that Droughns was the best back available to me at 14. I loved grabbing Chas on the corner. I had him rated the top WR (though not by much) and with Palmer looking good he has almost 0 risk, which is important if you grab for a WR early. round 2 demonstrated without a doubt that RB’s were going to go fast and furious. I had hoped Ahman Green would be available at 3.4, but he went 9 picks earlier (damn you, furt). I actually had Mike Bell, Chris Brown, and Wali Lundy all rated higher that Fagile Freddie this year, but I thought there was a good chance that one of them would still be on the board in round 5, so I grabbed Taylor, who always goes earlier htan he should and was certain not to be available in round 5. (which, as it turns out, makes me the owner who grabbed Talor too early this year, but given the way the draft gfell out, I’m OK with that.) I had some bervous moments waiting for round 5, then grabbed Lundy and was happy to do so. This is actually quite a bit higher than I had hoped, but this draft was killing RB depth, so I took him while I could.

This was the first real adjustment to my plan, too. I would have to grab a TE later, which meant not getting one of my top 3 targets (Heap, Shockey, Gonzo). I had a bunch of guys bunched below those three, though, so I decided I could wait. I took McMichael in round 7 and was happy to do so. It also put me back on “plan”.

Not for long, though. I did nab a 3rd WR at 8, but none of the rookie QB’s had gone yet, so I decided I could hold off reaching for that keeper. I was very happy that Braylon Edwards had dropped to me at 9.8, o I grabbed him and smikled happily. I like him a lot this year, and even more next year. At the end of round 9 I made my worst picks of the draft. In my defense, this was really rounds 11 & 12 for me, but Moats is still a huge reach at that position. True, RB’s depth had become pretty much 0, and I have all teh confidence in the world that Westbrook will not make it 16 games this year, but there were better handcuffs available on my board. Moats isn’t likely to ever go into a season as the starting RB, so his keeper value is minimal. the problem ws: I didn’t really like any of the keeper prospects available at this spot for either WR or RB. I was all set to grab Leinart, but the Qb’s still hadn’t been hit hard, and I was pretty sure I could wait. I thought hard about Vernon Davis, but I didn’t feel that he would be “no brainer” value at 7 or 8 next year, and I can’t justify a TE keeper unless it’s a no brainer; the position ust doesn;t produce enough points outside of the top studs. So – I reached for Moats and then grabbed the Tampa D. It was early for a D, but I just didn’t like anyone else on the board except as keeper prospects, and a keeper is more valuable the longer you wait. So . . .

I waited 11 more picks. Then my nerve ran out and I grabbed Leinart. I like him a lot. He has, by far, the most talented cast of skill position players about him of any of the 3 rookies, and his top 2 receivers are young, athletic, and mosters after the catch (especially Boldin). I really wanted to hold out to round 11, and that had been my intention when I passed on him at 10.1, but my nerve gave out. I was pretty sure I could grab one of the 3 rookies at 11.14, but in the end I decided that I liked Lienart enough better than the others to pul the trigger. And I’m glad I did. Cutler and Young both went before I was on the clock again. By now I had 5RB, 4WR, 2QB, and D. with 3 picks left I needed a K and some keeper prospects. I grabbed Vinatieri at the end of round 11. Caldwell is a crapshoot, but somebosy has to catch passes from Brady, and I’m not a big believer in Gabriel. I’ll know by week 3 whether he’s worth hanging onto or if he will become my “substitution slot” for bye week kickers and Defence. With my last pick, I decided to grab a handcuff RB. There seem to be injury/playing time risks all over the NFL this year, and I wasnt’ really satisfied with Moats, so I went ambulance chasing. I took a long time debating whether to handcuff one of my own guys, but Harrison (I hardly believed it!!), Norwood, and Morency had already gone. I considered both Toefield and Dane, but in the end I decided that the payoff to proecting my 3rd RB just wasn’t that high. I feel good enough about my receivers to play either Kennison or Edwards in the flex spot if I lose two RB’s through the season. I decided to look for highest replacement value, and that took me to the big 4 RB’s. Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs had already been grabbed, and I decided that LJ has more lieklihood to break down in his first full season as a starter than Alexander, who hasn’t missed a full game in 5 years as a starter. Michael Bennett, ambulance chaser, at my service.

The Results
01.14 (014) Reuben Droughns…(RB-Cle)
02.01 (015) Chad Johnson…(WR-Cin)
03.04 (032) Fred Taylor…(RB-Jac)
03.14 (042) Warrick Dunn…(RB-Atl) **
04.12 (054) Tom Brady…(QB-NE) *
05.03 (059) Wali Lundy…(RB-Hou)
06.13 (083) Santana Moss…(WR-Was) *
07.02 (086) Randy McMichael…(TE-Mia)
08.01 (099) Eddie Kennison…(WR-KC)
09.08 (120) Braylon Edwards…(WR-Cle)
09.14 (126) Ryan Moats…(RB-Phi)
10.01 (127) Tampa Bay…(DEF-TB)
10.12 (138) Matt Leinart…(QB-Ari)
11.14 (154) Adam Vinatieri…(K-Ind)
13.14 (182) Reche Caldwell…(WR-NE)
14.01 (183) Michael Bennett…(RB-KC)

keeper potential
In decreasong order of likelihood: Leinart, Edwards, Moss, Lundy, Caldwell (only because he is cheap), Bennett (fat chance!) and Brady (in my wildest dreams – but if he plays himself into a 2nd round pick I will be dancing in December.)

Mundi Measure
I am very happy at all positions except for RB. I have good depth at Rb, but I will need at least one of my guys to exceed expectations for me o repeat for a 3rd year. I like my WR corps better than any other in the league. (Munch’s come close, but I like each of my top 3 a little better than his, and Edwards puts me over the top as a 4th with huge upside. furt also has a nice trio, but nothing backing them up, and Moonshine still needs to show it under the big lights. Wierdos have an impressive pair, but questions after that.) Brady is my rock. If he crumbles I am left floundering in deep waters, but he has never crumbled.

So, basically, everything will depend upo my RB production. What else is new. I have no studs, but 4 confirmed starters going into the season: 1 history of injuries, 1 RBBC risk, 2 ambulance shasers in case someone else get unlucky. I’m actually pretty happy with that situation. there was no chance I would get a true stud picking 14th, so I really think this team turned out as well as I could have hoped. My biggest stumble came at the end of round 9, and that’s not such a bad thing.

Once Omni catches completes his reviews, I’ll take a look at what others have been saying about my draft. And thanks in addvance to all of you who have taken the time to comment. It’s always fun (for me, at least) to hear how others view the fantasy landscape.