He Hate Me FF keeper league

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
241

Yeah – I saw that note. the wildcatrd is Ron Dayne, of course, and I expect that his short yardage carries will eat into Morency’s “give the starter a breather” time, not Lundy’s. Who the hell knows with a Shanahan disciple, though. The point that remains clear is that Morency is not going to be worth a start most weeks when he is getting less than half of the carries, and that if Lundy goes down Morency isn’t guaranteed to take over the starter’s role.

Hey – I like the Morency pick. There wasn’t an RB on the board at that point who didn’t have question marks just as large, and you needed something to back up the Jones brothers and Rhodes, because all 3 of them face obvious risks to their status as starters. I’m just noting that there’s a good chance that if you have to reach for Mornecy you may not find many carries in your hand.

Actually, I think uness 2 of your backs go down you will find yourself grabbing for Curtis as your flex. I really like his upside this year.

242

It surely was comedy gold, but the Larry Johnson was a TIME=0 autodraft. I was a little confused. I wasn’t dumb enough to think LJ was on the board not as a keeper.

Brady, however, was brilliance on my own part. :smiley:

243

I think your D- was generous. My team is so bad that it makes me almost physically ill.

I’m considering putting it on the chopping block in week 2.

244

Jesus, dude. That’s fucking brilliant.

As the resident Eagles apologist, I’d like to point out that he catches as many touchdowns as he rushes for, so that despite the fact that he really only gets in on the ground from 30 yards out or more, his year-to-year touchdown totals are actually 11, 9, 7 over his three seasons as a full-time player (15, 13, and 12 games, respectively). So there is the injury thing, but when he’s playing he’s a decent bet for paydirt.

Eventually I’ll have more time to say some things about my draft. Eventually.

245

Baltimore Weirdos (Weirddave)
01.07 (007) Steve Smith…(WR-Car)
02.08 (022) DeShaun Foster…(RB-Car)
03.07 (035) Randy Moss…(WR-Oak)
04.08 (050) Chris Brown…(RB-Ten)
05.07 (063) Marc Bulger…(QB-StL)
06.08 (078) Mark Clayton…(WR-Bal)
07.07 (091) Larry Johnson…(RB-KC) **
08.08 (106) Antonio Gates…(TE-SD) **
09.07 (119) Musa Smith…(RB-Bal)
10.08 (134) Shane Graham…(K-Cin)
11.07 (147) Seattle…(DEF-Sea)
12.08 (162) Brett Favre…(QB-GB)
13.07 (175) Mewelde Moore…(RB-Min)
14.08 (190) David Givens…(WR-Ten)
15.07 (203) Ben Troupe…(TE-Ten)
16.08 (218) Priest Holmes…(RB-KC)

When you’ve got the top RB (arguably) and the top TE (no argument at all) as keepers in the 7th and 8th rounds you’re probably going to be pretty good. Guess what, this team is pretty good. Count me among those who think that Steve Smith will fall back to the pack this season and not drafting Edge or Cadillac here was a mistake. The ability to land 2 1st round worthy RBs in this league is a rare luxury you do not pass up. We’ll see how much it hurts you.

QB – Bulger, Favre
Whew, that’s one dicey situation you’ve got there. Bulger has put up numbers for a while now, but he’s also missed games repeatedly. It’s a safe bet you’re relying on Brett at some point, and that’s just comical for this Bears fan. Complicating matters is that both QBs have rookie head coaches with them for the first time. It’s unclear if Bulger is a Martz creation or not and who knows if the situation in Green Bay is combustible or not. How scary would this team have been with Peyton as it’s first pick?

RB – Johnson, Foster, C. Brown, M. Smith, M. Moore, P Holmes
Man, the start with LJ was a great leg up and you screwed the pooch on the rest. Foster will score you some points but he isn’t going to stay healthy and he struggle near the goal line and he’s got a potential horse behind him. Brown is one of about a dozen guys hoping for carries on a piss poor offense. Even if he gains the starting job, what exactly have you got there? I do like Mewelde quite a bit, I think he’s got a hell of a lot more potential than Musa Smith, and it’s not much or a stretch to envision Chester falling flat up there. Frankly, if I were at betting man…and I am….I’d bet he’s part of a RBC. That Holmes pick baffles me, is there someone out there guessing he’ll make a Willis Reid like comeback? If he does, you get the award for most players likely to become paralyzed.

WR – S. Smith, R. Moss, M. Clayton, D. Givens
This could be great or it could really suck for you. The upside is HUGE. Stevie might repeat his performance from last season and Randy might end up returning to the stratosphere. Even Clayton could be a great play each week with McNair at the helm, it worked for Mason and Dyson once upon a time, he even made Drew Bennett into a fantasy stud one year. Most likely Smith will come back to the mean…and may miss the first couple starts… and Moss will be sniping at his QB (whoever that is) by week 4. Givens has no value in that mess and a prolonged absence of Smith will have you scouring the waiver wire and dropping one of those RBs.

TE – Gates, Troupe
I love Gates, he’s the best. Um…….yeah.

K – Graham
He’s going to put up numbers this season, for a kicker that is. Still, he’s got an offense that’s not likely to struggle in the red zone. How many 4 PAT, 0 FG games will he suffer?

DEF - Seattle
This is pretty decent but I’m not sure they stand out for the rest of the pack enough to warrant the 11th rounder. Dallas? Jacksonville? You can be sure that their competition has improved quite a lot this season, I’m not sure they’ll get so many freebies from AZ and SF this season.

Summary – What a disappointment this turned out to be. Heading into the draft this team had everything going for it and it pretty much fell apart from the get go. He took a reasonable gamble by taking Smith in the first round but you really needed to get a more certain 2nd RB and QB immediately afterwards. I’m predicting a scramble in the backfield which will shake itself out later in the season. I suspect you’ll be playing matchups with 4 RBs who are each in a RBC situation. Can be effective if you guess right, either way it’ll be frustrating. The WR situation is volatile and you really need Randy to keep his head on straight and Oakland to settle on a QB, but you don’t need that as much as you need Bulger to stay healthy.

Final Grade: C-

Potential Keepers: Holmes, Moore, Johnson and Gates

246

Everyone seems to hate my 2nd Round selection of Matt Hasselbeck. Granted, there’s some chance that he would have been available 21 picks later in the 3rd round, but I doubt it, and I really wanted to make sure I got him. The top four fantasy QBs this year are, in no particular order: Manning, Palmer, Brady, and Hasselbeck. Manning was off the board, while Palmer and Brady were keepers. There figures to be a big drop off in the expected return between those four and the big morass of 2nd-tier QBs.

Also, as everyone knows, I’m a big fan of the work done by Football Outsiders. Their player projection system (based on previous similar players’ career arcs, surrounding talent on the team, regression to the mean, and strength of schedule among other things) has pegged Hasselbeck for a huge year. They project for him 4300 yards, 31 TDs, and 7 INTs. This is remarkable for a projection system that tends to ‘play it safe’ and rarely forecasts huge numbers (like 4300 yards) for specific players. Obviously there’s a good chance that their numbers will be off by a lot, but the point is that they’re pretty confident that Hasselbeck, who was already a very good QB, will take a big step forward this year.

Finally, I knew I was going to have to gamble this year. One team got to keep Palmer and Lamont Jordan, another got to keep Holmes and Gates . . . and there are 11 other teams that might get hot, too. I think boom or bust was a perfectly reasonable strategy seeing as I would be unable to get a surefire stud RB at 1.11. So, I take the injury-risk RB with upside in the first. Then the possible huge breakout QB on a great offense and a weak schedule in the 2nd. Then I double up on the Seahawks passing game with Darrell Jackson in the 4th – again, if Hasselbeck does wind up having a huge year, those yards and TDs have to go somewhere, and getting credit twice on my QB’s (hopefully) huge production would go a long way towards closing the gap with the teams that have the best RBs.

Obviously, I also gambled with all of my other WR picks. Branch, Clayton, Williamson, and White – all of these players have a chance to break out this year and be worth a keeper pick next season. Of course, they also all have a chance to put up 500 yards and 3 TDs on the year, so there is that.
I predict a mediocre season for my team – probably some of my gambles will pay off while others bust, which leads to a 7-7 record. Of course, with this team anything is possible – I could go 2-10, I could go 12-2. I like that better given my situation than a team with slightly better expected value but much less variance.

247

Moridwon (Hamlet)
01.08 (008) Edgerrin James…(RB-Ari)
02.07 (021) Steven Jackson…(RB-StL) **
03.08 (036) Donald Driver…(WR-GB)
04.07 (049) Derrick Mason…(WR-Bal)
05.08 (064) Tony Gonzalez…(TE-KC)
06.07 (077) Trent Green…(QB-KC)
07.08 (092) Isaac Bruce…(WR-StL)
08.07 (105) M. Jones-Drew…(RB-Jac)
10.07 (133) Jon Kitna…(QB-Det)
11.08 (148) Indianapolis…(DEF-Ind)
12.07 (161) Doug Gabriel…(WR-Oak)
13.08 (176) Michael Turner…(RB-SD)
14.07 (189) Lawrence Tynes…(K-KC)
14.11 (193) Terry Glenn…(WR-Dal) *
15.08 (204) Najeh Davenport…(RB-GB)
16.07 (217) Cincinnati…(DEF-Cin)

We’ve found our first team with legitimately two stud RBs. They do have questions, both largely injury related, but from a fantasy perspective you’ve covered your bases as well as can be hoped. You were judicious in your use of high draft picks by next taking 4 consecutive reliable options at key positions. They don’t have crazy high ceilings, but Driver, Mason and Gonzo are all going to get plenty of action and don’t have serious injury histories. All in all, this is a very well managed and cautiously assembled team.

QB – Green, Kitna
Very well done I think. Neither will be a difference maker but considering how effectively you addressed the rest of the positions you chose wisely. The other owner who took a wait and see approach to the QB position ended up with Vick and Carr……I think you did it better. I’m concerned with Trent’s outlook under Herm Edwards….I cannot believe this bum still has a job and inherited a good situation here. Herm was one Curtis Martin away from being Rich Kotitie. Still, Green’s experienced enough and has Gonzo and LJ on hand to still be productive. Kitna is a guy I really like this season, say what you will about Martz and Detroit, he’ll probably combine with Kitna to out play that 10th round selection.

RB – James, Jackson, Jones-Drew, Turner, Davenport
You’ve got two top notch starters, so regardless of what you think about the backups, you’re in the top tier at this position, probably the very best. Every year I move Edge down my board expecting him to disappoint. I’ve never thought the guy was worth the hype. He seemed to get dinged at the worst times and seemed to disappear in big games. Still, from a fantasy perspective, his numbers come December looked great. The move to ‘Zona shouldn’t mean a huge drop off in production with all that talent, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of Edge’s production was a by-product of Peyton’s line changes and audibles. Still, RBs do tend to age overnight and one day he’ll become old when you’re not looking. I went on a diatribe about how I think Jackson was over rated this season in a earlier post but that was because he was taken 7th overall. At #21 overall he’s a gold mine. Apparently he’s hurt and questionable this week, so it needs to be watched. I really like Jones-Drew, he looked excellent in the preseason and you know damn well he’s getting touches when Freddy get’s dinged. He’s even got keeper potential. Turner probably won’t ever be a stud but having LTs backup is always a reasonable thought. Davenport! Get Mr. Griswald’s car and bring it back here!

WR – Driver, Mason, Bruce, Gabriel, Glenn
God damn, this is a well rounded team. I’m real high on Driver this year. Favre is notorious for craving a comfort zone with a WR and riding him all season. In the preseason he only had eyes for Driver. I have him in another league that gives pts for recepts and I’m expecting him to be huge there. Here he’ll be good too, though it’s unclear how much success the Pack will have getting into the endzone. Never the less, he’ll score points every week, which is saying something when talking about a fantasy WR. Mason may not amount to much, but I’m on the McNair bandwagon. I think this Ravens passing game might just come alive. Familiarity is always a plus. Getting Glenn as a keeper was a shrewd move, a trade I was offered but I just didn’t have the keeper to spare, and unless Bledsoe falls totally in love with Owens you should do some serious damage with him as your #2 or #3. Remember when Bledsoe had Price and Moulds on each side? He’s shown a knack for spreading it around. Even the Reverend could put up some nice numbers this season, but I’ll be rooting against him in favor of my man Curtis. Gabriel will be on the waiver wire by week 3.

TE – Gonzalez
Everything been said about him that needs to be said. I don’t think he’s past his expiration date just yet and getting him paired with Green for a doubler is a solid move. I like it.

**K[/k] – Tynes
OK, getting a little out of hand with the whole KC thing aren’t we? Did I mention Herm Edwards is involved?

DEF – Indy, Cincy
Hey, I think the Chiefs defense is available!!!

Summary – This is a very formidable team without a whole lot of chances for utter collapse. There’s a reasonable backup player in place for that flex position and you’ve got some certain production at every spot. Again, I don’t see anyone becoming a uber-stud, but every single guy here has proven it before. You’ve got a shortage of legitimate keeper options but you’re in line to challenge for the title today.

Final Grade: B+

Potential Keepers: Glenn, Jones-Drew

248

Chitwood - TBA (Jimmy Chitwood)
01.09 (009) Cadillac Williams…(RB-TB)
02.06 (020) Reggie Bush…(RB-NO)
03.09 (037) Mike Bell…(RB-Den)
04.06 (048) Anquan Boldin…(WR-Ari) **
05.09 (065) Marion Barber…(RB-Dal)
06.06 (076) Donte Stallworth…(WR-Phi)
07.09 (093) Drew Brees…(QB-NO)
08.06 (104) Drew Bennett…(WR-Ten)
09.09 (121) L.J. Smith…(TE-Phi)
10.06 (132) Antonio Bryant…(WR-SF) *
11.09 (149) Jay Cutler…(QB-Den)
12.06 (160) Baltimore…(DEF-Bal)
13.09 (177) Cedric Cobbs…(RB-Den)
14.06 (188) David Akers…(K-Phi)
15.09 (205) Ronald Curry…(WR-Oak)
16.06 (216) Aaron Rodgers…(QB-GB)

If you had this team in real life you’d have to feel real good about your future. 4 of the top 5 picks were used on young RBs that will someday be putting up numbers. Mix in a few talented WRs entering new situations and there’s a ton of reason to feel good. They even have a top flight rookie QB to groom. Unfortunately for you, most of these guys don’t equate to keepers and it’s almost certain that half these guys will be riding the bench this year.

QB – Brees, Cutler, Rodgers
No complaints here. You landed a pair of ideal keeper candidates at good value positions. I for one think Cutler will be worth that number 9 next season. Brees is a guy I’m expecting really good things for. The Saints simply aren’t the awful team that played like last season. They have some real talent on offense, they are only a couple years removed from career years from Horn and Deuce. I see no reason to think they won’t return to form with the steady leadership and accurate arm of Brees. And hell, there’s Reggie Bush. Yeah, I like Brees’ potential here.

RB - C. Williams, R. Bush, M. Bell, M. Barber, Cobbs
There’s way too much risk here to feel confident but there’s no doubting the potential for greatness. We saw that the Caddy has the potential to be a horse and we’ll have to find out if he wears better this season as a second year guy. That offense is going to better this year and Caddy should reap the benefits……if healthy. Bush was a reach there, but in a way I’m OK with it just because I know how much fun it would have been to have a stake in seeing his games all season. You certainly won’t be bored with him and he might be a immediate fantasy impact player, especially good if he’s catching balls from Brees in the redzone. Having both Bell and Cobbs is probably a good thought, again Bell’s a iffy 3rd rounder without being assured a starting job but we all know that anyone on the Broncos depth chart at RB has a shot at going for a 1000 yards and 12 TDs. If he wins that job out right, watch out. I hate you for taking Barber from me and if he’s getting serious carries I’ll be crying in my cheerios. Obviously I’m predicting he’ll be a non-factor.

WR – Boldin, Stallworth, Bennett, Bryant, Curry
Considering you spent a lot of early picks on iffy RBs you still managed to field a solid crew of WRs with potential. Boldin was a great keeper and there’s not much question that he’ll perform. Playing in the dome might even help him stay healthy and energetic. Stallworth is a crap shoot but going to that pass-happy Philly system might have him scoring big time. McNabb looked pretty damn sharp in the preseason after all. Bennett if healthy has some talent but it won’t matter if Vince Young is getting some serious PT, not a bad gamble there though. Collins might turn him into a home run threat. Bryant is a darling everyone expects to break out with the move to SF especially after seeing Alex Smith make some strides in the off-season. Curry is the odd man out in Oakland right now, but that could change from week to week. That offense won’t sparkle but as a 15th pick Curry could develop some value. Big picture, I’m willing to wager that one of those guys behind Boldin will pan out into a quality #2, unfortunately you’ll need two of them if you don’t get a reliable RB for your flex position.

TE – LJ Smith
Like I said the Eagles love to throw the ball. Still, he’s like the 5th option and those whopping 3 TDs last season aren’t very impressive. Still, it’s a TE so who cares.

K – Akers
I do like this guy. The Eagles could very likely struggle in the redzone this year. Westbrook doesn’t have that power in the middle and they don’t have a great leaper at the WR position. McNabb might be a little less apt to run it in himself and that might lead to quite a few 3 FG games.

DEF – Baltimore
They ain’t what they used to be and they match-up against some seriously powerful offenses. It’s a defense so it’s not a major flaw, but I think they’ll hurt you more than they help you this year. Ordinarily I wouldn’t mention it since it’s SOP for defenses outside the top 2 or 3 but you reached for them in the 12 round!

Summary – Talk about a team with an uncertain future. I can’t recall the last time a team would be so affected by coaches’ decisions. Even the WR corps are sitting at home hoping their number gets called while pushing needles into a voodoo doll. There’s little doubt that these guys might perform but you’ll probably lose as many of those wagers as you’ll win. If that’s the case you’ll be one starter short of a full roster and your QB/TE/K/DEF aren’t good enough to make up for a negligible flex player.

Final Grade: B-

Potential Keepers: Cutler, Rodgers, Barber, Cobbs, Boldin, Curry

249

Crabby Hermits (The Mad Hermit)
01.10 (010) Peyton Manning…(QB-Ind)
02.05 (019) Jamal Lewis…(RB-Bal)
03.10 (038) Hines Ward…(WR-Pit)
04.05 (047) T.J. Houshmandzadeh…(WR-Cin)
05.10 (066) Alge Crumpler…(TE-Atl)
06.05 (075) Rod Smith…(WR-Den)
07.10 (094) Drew Bledsoe…(QB-Dal) *
08.05 (103) Sam Gado…(RB-GB)
09.10 (122) Willie Parker…(RB-Pit) *
10.05 (131) Pittsburgh…(DEF-Pit) **
11.10 (150) Antwaan Randle El…(WR-Was)
12.05 (159) Marty Booker…(WR-Mia)
13.10 (178) John Kasay…(K-Car)
14.05 (187) LaBrandon Toefield…(RB-Jac)
15.10 (206) Dante Hall…(WR-KC)
16.05 (215) Nick Goings…(RB-Car)

This team is going to have to be the Peyton Manning show. Normally I’d kill a team riding a QB to a title but Peyton’s done it before and I see no reason to expect a major change to that. The rest of the team is stacked with AFC Central players, most of which are either the second option or have questions. One thing I notice is the decision to add Bledsoe as a back up to Peyton. Now, maybe I’m just prone to extremes, but considering Peyton has never missed a game I might have used that pick else where and just worried about a backup QB at the very end of the draft. This line up practically begged for a Mike Anderson handcuff in round 7. I’m pessimistic about this team primarily because I think Willie Parker is overrated.

QB – P. Manning, Bledsoe
As already noted, Manning is a no-brainer. Love his game though I think he might take a small step back to the mean this year with the loss of Edge. Don’t like the choice to take Bledsoe as a backup for a few reasons. Bledsoe was actually fighting for his job with Tony Romo a couple weeks ago so he might not exactly be a rock come midseason, not to mention the beating he’s going to take behind that line. If the impossible happens and Manning gets hurt it won’t do you much good to have a back up who’s probably already gonna be hurt. All that is secondary to the fact that you missed a golden opportunity to land a super-keeper as your backup. Tell me Chris Simms or Charlie Frye wouldn’t have offered some real upside here? (Personally I think Simms has a big big year this year) What about Leinart or Cutler? Which leads us to the aforementioned RB situation……

RB – J. Lewis, W. Parker, Gado, Toefield, Goings
You missed the chance to turn a solid group into a really powerful one. Taking Bledsoe when Mike Anderson was on the board was a huge mistake. Everyone one knows that Lewis could be a horse again but you cannot ignore the fact that he sucked with a capital S last season and he’s got a nagging hip injury right now. Pairing him with Anderson would have essentially given you a top level RB tandem to match anyone else in the league. Well, not a tandem I guess, but the threesome of Parker, Lewis and Anderson would have probably insured you 2 productive starters every week. As mentioned I’m not high on Parker, I can’t substantiate this and I know it, but he doesn’t feel like a real fantasy RB to me. I’m probably wrong, but I have a feeling he’ll end up being the homeless man’s Tiki Barber. Without Bettis he’ll struggle in the redzone and will wear down under a full time load. Remember, he had a whopping 4 TDs last year to Gado’s 6. Speaking of Gado, he’s a nice pick there with the serious questions surrounding Green’s health. Probably don’t want him carrying your team, but as a situational flex player he could be great assuming he gets the rock. Toefield is the odd man out in Jax as is Goings in Carolina but we’ve seen 3rd RBs on those teams produce before. This group is one handcuff RB from being stellar, as it is it’s one of the better ones.

WR – Ward, Houshmandzadeh, R. Smith, Randle El, Booker, D. Hall
This is a really good group with some good value added late. Ward, without Randle El, will probably get some increased production if he ever gets healthy and TJ Whoszyomama will put up some big games with the juvenated Palmer at the helm. Not sure if father time is going to be able to squeeze one more season out of those old dogs but I said that last season. No idea how Randle El will be utilized in Washington but our somewhat return friendly scoring system he might be a reasonable play as a flex in bye weeks. Booker is a real find late in the draft, if some of the pundits who love the Dolphins and Culpepper are right he’ll get plenty of balls opposite Chambers. I don’t see a single guy to carry you week to week here and you might see some frustrating goose eggs from this squad, but if you pick the right matchups it’ll be a good group.

TE – Crumpler
This guy is one of the best and there’s no question that Vick will get him the ball often. That’s about the best you can ask from a TE. Too many talented guys find themselves blocking or over looked by QBs raised in the run and shoot/fun and gun systems. Landing a upper tier guy in a established system with a established QB is the best you can ask for.

K – Kasay
I really wanted this guy late in the draft. They’ll be kicking a lot of FGs with that defense and conservative style. The only concern is that DeAngelo Williams turns them into money in the redzone, which might just happen.

DEF – Pittsburgh
They are good and they’ll score you some points. You didn’t reach too much, though a tough schedule might make for a couple ugly weeks.

Summary – This team is built from the top down. Led by the QB, supported by the steady RBs and augmented by some sporadic WR play. It’s a philosophy that is usually sound and not often used. So long as the RBs do their job and the WRs pick the right weeks to produce they’ll win more than they’ll lose. The snafu with Bledsoe over Anderson is the only thing bringing this team back from scoring a top grade. There’s not a single position with bottom half talent which is rare in this deep league, the sad part is that a Jamal Lewis injury could take this team from the title game to the bottom half all at once.

Final Grade: B+

Potential Keepers: Gado, Parker

250

Yeah, I was wondering how it was even possible you’d forget LJ was a keeper. But now I’m a little concerned that yahoo autodrafted you an excluded player. Did you not exclude the keepers, or was it that you weren’t using the “My Rankings” list?

I know several owners didn’t manage to get that set in time. It is a PITA to rank 200 players, and it wasn’t clearly spelled out that we should do that. It didn’t even occur to me until an hour before the prerankings got locked.

251

Eerybody else has done a terrific job with the team-by team analysis, so I won’t duplicate the efforts, and instead just address my own team.

QB – Warner, Plummer, V. Young

Every damn year I take QBs too early. It’s a ritual. Having said that, I can live with these guys, all much better in fantasy than real life.

Re: Warner, I think people are a bit too quick to worry about injury and/or a player getting benched. I mean that in this sense – if you have a guy who is a very solid performer for 8 weeks, but is then lost for the rest of the year, I’ll take him every time over the guy who is just so-so over 16 weeks. I took Kurt Warner (who was, the following aside still a reach) knowing full well that he might lose his job by November. The first reason was that I thought I’d get Leinert, but the second was that I like his chances of putting up good fantasy numbers (remembering that completion % and sacks taken don’t count).

Plummer will not be benched if the Broncos are in the playoff hunt, which they will be in that lousy division, and Young may get enough rushing yards and yards against prevent defenses to be useful.

RB – Gore, R.Brown, A. Green, J. Harrison

Reprising the theme: I’ll take Ahman Green over a Chris Brown or Thomas Jones or Joseph Addai because while Green may well go down with an injury, unless and until he does he’s a clear number one. When he does, I look for someone else. Time-sharers may well put up better numbers over the course of the season, but on a per-game basis they’re not as good. Jerome Harrison is a flyer; he looked fantastic in the preseason, and I’m not convinced on Droughns.

WR – Fitzgerald, J. Walker, M. Jones S. Parker.

I like the three, and Parker is a dice roll.

TE – Winslow and V. Davis

Winslow was an iffy pick – I knew in advance that I wanted to trade out of rounds 6 and 7 as I wouldn’t like my choices,and I didn’t – But Vernon Davis was a steal. With young QBs, on bad teams that will be facing a lot of late-game deep zones, I’ll bet on one of these guys to catch 65 passes.

K – Kaeding

Meh

DEF – Arizona and Philadelphia

I wouldn’t be stunned if one of these is a keeper. Book it now: the Philly defense is back in the top 10, if not higher.

252

I don’t. Given the quality of RBs that were there in the 2nd, a rock-solid QB (2nd best IMO) wasn’t a bad choice.

253

I think Tony Gonzalez is going to have his worst year as a pro this year. Herm Edwards has never featured a TE in his offense, and even worse is that when you combine the departures from the OL with LJ’s incompetence in pass blocking, Tony’s looking at a season of staying in to protect.

Then again, in a very similar situation in 2004 Shockey still managed to produce pretty well, but he did whine about it to the media like a little bitch. (He actually said “Staying in to block so much tires me out.”)

So I expect Gonzalez to be way down this year. I don’t think he can stay in to block on half the passing plays and still have enough left in the tank to be a force downfield the other half.

254

We should use a waiver wire so that breakout players don’t get awarded based on who is closest to the computer.

All players will go on waivers at the opening kickoff of their game that week. All players come off waivers Tuesday night. While on waivers, make a claim by emailing the player(s) you want to me. Title your email “Waiver claim”. Include as many players as you like, but list them in order of most wanted first.

Players will be awarded based on waiver priority, and each successful claim pushes you to the end of the line. Each Tuesday night I’ll post a notification to the yahoo board detailing who got awarded to whom. You can then add whomever you were awarded, as well as freely sign any other free agents not claimed by anyone else.

I won’t be locking and unlocking the rosters, but I will be undoing any free agent acquisitions that jump the waiver wire. There is no penalty for jumping the waiver wire other than tipping your hand to everyone else.

This is now in effect, so you can’t sign any Steelers or Dolphins players. If you want any, you have to email me a waiver claim, or wait until Wednesday and hope nobody else claims them.

If you like, we can have a second owner handle waiver claims on NY players. I’m pretty gung-ho about the waiver wire, so it’ll take some impassioned dissent to persuade me out of it.

255

EVERYTHING’S COMING UP MILLHOUSE!!!:

"The Steelers signed former Packer running back Najeh Davenport to a one-year contract, according to ESPN. Pittsburgh cleared a roster spot for Davenport by releasing fellow running back Patrick Cobbs.

Our View
Speculation abounds that Davenport will fill the short-yardage roll vacated by the retirement of Jerome Bettis. Verron Haynes was slated to get a carry at the stripe, but Charlie Batch fumbled the snap. Willie Parker converted a fourth-down sweep but was also stopped on a third-and-short, and the Steelers opted to throw in three other third-and-short situations. With Parker getting 30 touches, odds are Bill Cowher will want to reduce his workload, especially if it involves inside running. The possibility of Davenport getting those short-yardage carries—which theoretically would also reduce potential wear-and-tear on the oft-injured Najeh—certainly makes him worth a pickup in touchdown-heavy fantasy leagues."

Although I was honestly hoping a team with a starter going down would pick him up early in the season, this is still a pretty solid outcome.

256

Guilty as charged. Sorry, guv’nor.

As my penance I will make public statements of support for the New York Giants or New York Jets should they meet the Redskins in the playoffs.

257

Ellis,

I think this waiver wire scheme is fantastic. I’d brought up the idea in the past but we never really pursued it.

You say you’ll undo any pre-Tuesday acquisitions should any duplicate requests be received–I hope everyone will be sportsmanlike and not try to screw someone picking up a bye week TE, Kicker, or DEF without a legit reason. (It is unethical to do that, right? I’m interested in hearing others opinions.)

258

I don’t completely follow your question, so I’ll elaborate on my solution to the waiver wire.

Pre-Tuesday acquisitions are often not affected by the waiver wire. Right now, (Saturday afternoon) for example, you can freely sign any free agents you like as long as they aren’t on the Dolphins or Steelers, who have already kicked off this week. If conflicting requests come in, waiver priority dictates who wins the player.

It’s not conflicts that I’ll be undoing, (although those too,) but rather ALL free agent acquisitions of players who have already kicked off this week. The main hurdle for me is limited availability Sundays before kickoff, so I needed a more self-policing system. The net result of this system is really quite simple:

If you can sign a guy and start him this week, he is a free agent. If you sign a guy and yahoo won’t let him start for you this week, he is on waivers and you should probably file a waiver claim for him. (Or you can just wait until Wednesday and keep your fingers crossed.)

Note: The exception to this is bye weeks. Players on bye weeks are free agents, and not subject to the waiver wire because they don’t have a kickoff. The whole purpose of the waiver wire is to stop the “closest man to the computer” effect during actual games, so players on bye weeks are unaffected.

In any case, if you sign a guy on waivers, sometime before Tuesday I’ll be undoing that roster move and logging a waiver claim for that player for you. It’s not a huge deal when I get to it, since by definition he couldn’t have started for you that week anyway. One tip: Look for ©ommissioner roster moves, as these are the tipoffs on what players have waiver claims against them.

The official cutoff is midnight Eastern between Tuesday and Wednesday. I don’t foresee a huge problem with that, since if anyone really wants somebody they can file a waiver claim.

259

I wish yahoo supported a re-draft playoff format. Play the entire NFL regular season as the fantasy regular season; after week 17’s final game, the fantasy playoff teams then have a start-from-scratch fantasy draft with only players playing wildcard weekend. The fantasy championship round would be the divisional round, and either there could be a supplemental draft for players who had a first round bye, or an entire new draft from scratch.

There are eight active teams during both of those NFL playoff weeks, so there’d be enough players in the draft pool to make it work.

I think this would be way fun, with three extra weeks of fantasy for everyone, plus one or two extra live drafts (which rule) for the playoffs. Too bad it’s not a supported format.

260

Those of you waiting for me to finish my reviews will be interested to see my excuse for the delay. Had to get the weekly predictions thread up an going again! 2006 Weekly Predictions. Check it out and stop by to say hi.