It also probably helped that I wasn’t there to screw it up.
Just in case anyone is interested, we’re drafting tonight at 8pm eastern and we’re 1 person short. If you want to take part, sign up for the yahoo league
League ID: 669577
Password: cecil
and the info about how to be at the draft is in the commissioner’s note.
The rules and such are in the linked thread.
Anyone care to post a draft recap and prognosticate about how the teams will do?
I plan to, but i’ve had drafts every night this week.
Including one right now sir 
I will likely be doing this tomorrow during my pre-Saints game drinking.
Hey Omni, are we using this thread for the weekly predictions this year, or did you want to start a different one for mock gambling?
Ellis Dee and I were discussing this the other day. Part of the predictions thread is people making their picks against the spread - but if people were interested, we could turn this into a more concrete competition.
If we gave everyone X dollars in funny money, and then all had a sports book we all used or some other odds-setting mechanics (for reference, of course. The thread starter could post the available lines from whatever source we chose to use) with standardized payouts (-110 for 100 on standard against the spread bets, certain odds for different parlays, etc.) then we could have everyone make their mock bets that week, as few or as many as they wanted, with as many or as little money as they wanted up to as much funny money they had, and at the end of the year the person with the most money would be the winner, and everyone’s remaining money would be the score.
It could also be one of those life lessons about how you’re probably going to lose at the sportsbook 
I don’t know if people would be interested, but we could either make that part of the weekly prediction threads, or a seperate, but related, thread. I wanted to start it myself, but with already having 50 or so active SDMB football threads, I didn’t.
I think I’ll just go ahead and use that existing thread to make my weekly picks. Partly because it’ll make it easier for everyone to find the thread and read it, and partly because I’m concerned I won’t be able to dedicate the time to making as elaborate of an analysis of each game every week. That way if I miss a week or only make cursory pick I won’t waste everyones time with a new thread.
I’m all for the mock gambling thing but it probably warrants it’s own thread. We don’t want too many overlapping and not-necessarily related discussions happening within the one thread. I think using that thread for weekly predictions and monitoring of the standings is going to make it about 20 pages long as it is, no need to make it even harder to keep up with.
Here’s the first installment of my draft recaps. Feel free to comment or add your own, I’ll try and get the rest of them finished before the weekend if not before tomorrow nights game.
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz (VarlosZ)
QB – Trent Green, David Garrard, Kevin Kolb
This is a really dicey QB situation. Trent Green spent very little time in camp and was never really the same after that injury last season. Miami isn’t going to have the offense that Trent had in his best years in KC and injuries behind that crappy O-line are almost a certainty. Garrard was able to supplant Leftwich, but I think the situation in Jacksonville is pretty bleak. That stable of WRs is going to have to really step up, and while Garrard’s record was solid as starter his stats weren’t anything special. Kolb is a 3rd string QB and has little more than keeper value, and not much of that until year 3.
RB - LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Leon Washington, Kenny Irons, Selvin Young
He’s got LDT so you can’t say his RB situation is bad, but it could have been a lot better. He doesn’t have LDT’s handcuff due to keepers. I think Lewis is totally cooked and it will show in Cleveland. Irons is out for the season with a knee, Leon Washington is on the wrong side of a time-share (and it might be a stretch to call it that). Selvin Young could be a great sleeper in that Denver system, but lets not forget that predicting who will win Shanahan’s favor is a exercise in futility.
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Deion Branch, Troy Williamson, Ted Ginn Jr
This is a very strong group and they are going to have to be very consistent in order to balance the inconsistency this team is likely to see in its QB and RB2 positions. The top three will be capable of going for 100 catches and 1200+ yards. Williamson hasn’t shown much yet, but he’s the #1 option for Minny. Too bad they don’t have a more reliable QB. Getting Ginn late is a hell of a value, but maybe not for a while.
TE - Jason Witten, Dallas Clark
This is a good tandem, of course you can’t start two. I never like taking a backup TE when you spend a high draft choice on one, but if you avoid injuries elsewhere playing the match-ups with these two could be the difference in close games.
K – None
Since I’m sure Irons is headed to waivers, I suspect you’ll be rectifying this shortly. At least you didn’t waste another pick by taking one earlier.
DEF – Green Bay
This defense played very well down the stretch and I think they’ve added more talent, the only caveat is that every offense in the division will be better. Then again, none of the QBs in question are immune to total implosions any week. Great value so long as Favre and the offense doesn’t put them into too many bad situations.
Keeper Outlook – Ted Ginn Jr, Selvin Young, Williamson, Kolb….aside from Ginn Jr, …meh.
Overall – This team will go as Tomlinson goes. It’s a cliché, but it’s usually true when you have the #1 overall pick. I think you’d have been better off bypassing Jamal Lewis and taking Brady or Bulger there. Ahman Green will have a better year than Lewis. I had Brady as my #2 overall QB and if he was on this team you’d easily be a favorite for the championship. As it is, I think the weakness at QB and RB2 will hold him out of the top 4 even with LDT.
Trade Down for Kolb (Jimmy Chitwood)
QB – Drew Brees, Jay Cutler
This proves that keeper value isn’t restricted to RBs. Chitwood’s QB situation was one assured of being in the top 3 before the draft even began. I think Brees will take a small step back as defenses adjust but I think Cutler takes a huge step forward. Because of the keepers both are insane values though.
RB – Steven Jackson, Deuce McAllister, LaMont Jordan, Garrett Wolfe, Kolby Smith
A very nice group, though it’s a little top heavy. I was one of those people who Jackson made look stupid last season. There’s little reason to think his production will drop considerably this year so I totally agree with him as the #2 overall. Deuce should remain a productive guy and TD vulture, but I expect Bush to take away a bit of his production as he becomes a more well rounded back. Jordan sucks, but he’s about all they have in Oakland so I can’t complain about getting a team #1 option at the end of the 4th round. Wolfe has looked pretty unproductive in the preseason against 3rd string defenses and there’s essentially zero chance he moves ahead of Peterson on the depth chart, so it might be a while before he’s of any value even as a keeper. Smith is probably the odd man out in a crowded backfield.
WR – Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, Anthony Gonzalez, Ronald Curry, Mike Furrey, Dwayne Bowe
Tons of upside here. I like Wayne to outscore Marvin this year and if the reports of Campbell’s progression are true Moss might just be a major factor, beyond the starters this group is sick. Gonzalez might take a while to acclimate to the system but having the Colts 3rd WR is never a bad idea, Curry could break out if the Oakland QB situation settles down just a little. Furrey was a monster last year as a fantasy FA pickup and I bet he cleans house again with Williams and Johnson stretching defenses. KC hasn’t had a reliable WR in years and Bowe could turn into a super sleeper is that QB situation works itself out, certainly a good keeper.
TE – L.J. Smith
Eh, I’ve never been able to get excited about this guy. I know he puts up numbers and Philly loves to throw to the TE in the redzone, but I think he’s consistently over valued. Desmond Clark had better numbers last year. Not worth a 7th round keeper.
K – Neil Rackers
I like the Cincy offense this season and Rackers should score plenty, I’ve seen him go way earlier in other leagues and guys who will have worse years than him went earlier in this draft. Still, I’m hard pressed to take a kicker before the last 2 rounds.
DEF - Dallas
This defense is pretty damn good and Wade Phillips is a damn good defensive coach, combine the two and you could see something pretty special out of these guys. They play the NFC North and AFC East in addition to their own conference, so they play a ridiculous number of young, shaky and inconsistent QBs. I like them a lot.
Keeper Outlook – Brees, Cutler, Bowe, Curry, Furrey, Gonzalez….nice.
Overall – This is a very dangerous team. They are a favorite to win it all. Quality starters at all the key positions, rare when you draft at the top of the order, and young depth to go along with it. They have a top 5 kicker and defense to round things out and really no obvious injury risks. Plus a sick group of potential keepers, lets hope this isn’t the start of a dynasty.
** Baltimore Weirdos (Weirddave)**
QB – Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller
I love Palmer and the Bengals offense this year. He’s absolutely worth a second round choice and should carry this team most weeks. If he stays healthy the backups are irrelevant, but experts keep raving about how Campbell is progressing. If they are right that’s a good value and I like Boller as a late round insurance policy. McNair looked pretty terrible at times last year, especially in the playoffs, and he’s a constant injury risk at this point. Retirement might be looming, so the Kyle Boller Era v2.0 isn’t out of the question.
RB – Joseph Addai, Brandon Jackson, Lorenzo Booker, Kevin Faulk
Addai will challenge LDT for the top fantasy spot this season. Everyone seems to agree with that sentiment, so it’s not like I’m going out on a limb, but it bodes well for this group. Brandon Jackson has very little competition in Green Bay and should get enough carries to be solid RB2 and a value in the 4th round. After that things get pretty ugly. Booker and Faulk barely have any keeper value and if you find yourself needing to start them something went very very wrong.
WR – Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson, Mark Clayton, Terry Glenn, Brandon Jones, Demetrius Williams
For a team that didn’t have a single keeper you have to be impressed with the way every position was filled out with quality talent. I don’t expect any world-beaters to emerge from this group, but they will all be solid values. Colston will take a small step back this season, much like Brees, but not enough to make him a bad WR1 option. Calvin Johnson isn’t going to be as good as people keep saying, he’ll probably need the first half of the season to really figure things out and there’s 3 terrific secondaries in this division. He does have potential keeper value if he explodes. Clayton will continue to grow assuming McNair doesn’t implode, Glenn is in a key player very talented offense and Brandon Jones is a popular choice to break out with Vince Young slinging him the ball. Some combination of these 5 guys will make for a formidable 3 WR lineup.
TE – Alge Crumpler
It’s anyone’s guess if he’ll manage to be the same player he was with a new QB and a new head coach. Neither has a history of using the TE to any great success. Mix in all the distractions there have been in Atlanta this preseason and you have a guy ripe for a major down year. I made a decision long ago that he wouldn’t find his way onto any of my teams and as a 7th round pick he’s likely to be a waste.
K – Jeff Wilkins
Taken way too early. He’ll be an above average guy, but there at 5 others who would have been just as good available 5-6 rounds later.
DEF – Jacksonville
This defense has always exceeded expectations and is usually under-valued. They carried me in the last 2 fantasy seasons, but I have a feeling that the entire Jacksonville team is going to flop this year. The QB issues are just the start of the problem and I think the offense will flounder, putting pressure on the defense and hurting their numbers. They’ve had a few key defections over the last few years and play in a very offensive division. Nope, don’t like them at all.
Keeper Potential – Boller, Jones, C. Johnson….and Boller is a real stretch.
Overall – I like this team quite a bit. There were some serious missteps late in the draft which cost him depth at the RB position which could turn out to be back-breaking and the TE/K/DEF positions will under whelm. Still, with a core of Palmer, Addai, Jackson and a deep WR corps they should be a scary opponent every week. Injuries will make or break this team.
** Rhinosaurs(neuroman)**
QB – Jake Delhomme, Steve McNair, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
Pick a quarterback! Any quarterback! To say this is a spotty group would be a huge understatement. Russell and Quinn could both be extraordinary keepers, and while I think Quinn will see time early this season and eventually be good, he doesn’t have a good enough team around him to warrant consideration as a fantasy starter. Russell probably won’t take a single snap this season so carrying 2 QB keepers who can’t start is a huge burden. The Panthers brought in David Carr to challenge Jake, so that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. McNair was almost as hot-n-cold as Rex Grossman was last year, so I expect the QB position to bring you a lot of frustration.
RB – Shaun Alexander, Tatum Bell, Ladell Betts, Chris Henry, Priest Holmes
Shuan Alexander and a bunch of guys on the wrong side of a platoon. I think Alexander will be solid this year, but I don’t see him putting up numbers like he did in ‘03-’05. That offense is in flux and the division is a little better, he won’t be able to rack up garbage time yards and TDs in blowouts any more. If anything the Seahawks could be forced throw 45 times a game to outscore the Rams and Cards. Bell, Betts and Henry all have shaky guys in front of them and have played well, but the fact remains that they have guys in front of them. You don’t have a RB2 who will be announced in their teams opening intros.
WR – Torry Holt, Javon Walker, Santonio Holmes, Robert Meachem, Sidney Rice
I have a bad feeling about Torry Holt this year. It just feels like he could be a decoy half the time with Jackson becoming the crux of the offense and he could be haunted by nagging injuries. I also worry about Javon Walker following that shooting in the offseason. It could turn him into a ultra-focused stud or it could leave him consistently distracted, Rod Smith is going to cede the title of go-to guy to him and Cutler can sling, but there’s just a part of me that worries he’ll disappoint. Holmes, Meachem and Rice are all terrific sleepers and keeper possibilities but you’d better hope Holmes has the breakout year people are predictive because you might be struggling to fond a flex player otherwise.
TE – Chris Cooley
Another guy who people insist on taking too early. Desmond Clark had the same number of TDs. He’s a fine choice at TE, certainly not in the 6th round though.
K – None
Will be interesting to see who you drop to add a kicker. You’ve got some quality keeper choices at the tail end of that draft.
DEF – Miami
They’ll need their offense to get better in order to stay an elite group. Jason Taylor dominated by himself last year and Ronnie Brown should improve their ability to control the ball, but the changes in the coaching staff might manifest themselves here.
Keeper Potential – Rice, Meachem, Holmes, Quinn, Russell, Priest Holmes……great group, but someone has to play for you this season.
Overall – I think this team will under perform and find itself in the bottom tier. There are just too many guys that need circumstances to work out in their favor to be productive. Quinn need Frye to play poorly, Bell, Betts and Henry need to fin a way to get more than 20 touches a game. Russell need to actually put on a uniform. All those young WRs need to live up to the hype, certainly they all won’t, and the old WRs have a few questions to answer too. The QB situation is downright scary and unless Alexander manages 30 TDs this year he won’t be able to make up the difference.
Please be kind to me omni, I know I should have more rbs than I have.
Here’s a few more.
** New York Fanboys (Ellis Dee)**
QB – J.P. Losman, Rex Grossman, Brodie Croyle
A really young group, but also a group I expect to improve dramatically. Losman finished the year as strong as anyone. We’ll see if the loss of McGahee is crippling, I think Lynch will fill in capably. Grossman can be flat out incredible in between those embarrassingly bad games, and last year he had more great than terrible games. He’s got even more talent than he had last year and I expect the entire group to improve due to experience and maturity. Those two guys can make a formidable tandem if you are able to play the match-ups. So long as you don’t count on them to win for you themselves week in week out, you might be pleasantly surprised when each explodes for 300+ and 3 TDs in 4 or 5 games. Croyle has great keeper value and might even earn the starting job before the end of the month.
RB – Larry Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ahman Green, Wali Lundy
I really dig this threesome. When you spend your top three picks on RBs you should expect this, and all three have a little more risk than you like, but in a league this deep you shouldn’t hope for perfection. Lundy was cut, so that sort of hurts your depth. Heh. The biggest downside is that an injury to any of them will cripple you due to the lack of depth at RB and WR.
WR – Plaxico Burress, Laveranues Coles, Greg Jennings, Joe Horn
I have never been able to excite myself for any of the NY WRs. Year after year the uncertainty of Eli and the Chad make me decide to avoid them entirely. Things haven’t really changed this year either. They are #1 options for their teams, so you can’t hate it too much, but I wouldn’t want to count on them. Jennings was probably a steal and you’ll have to hope he stays healthy. I don’t think Horn will do much of anything but in the 10th round, why the hell not take him.
TE – Kellen Winslow, Chris Baker
You got two good ones that will get lots of looks, but you got two of them. You could have really used a good handcuff for your RBs or an additional WR instead and it’s not like there will me many occasions where you’ll ever sit Winslow so Baker is a luxury you can’t afford.
K – Josh Brown
He’s a kicker, yup, he certainly is.
DEF – San Diego, Oakland
This is probably the best defensive tandem in the league. I usually hate taking a pair of defenses, but if you are able to lock down two great ones they’ll usually warrant the roster spot by virtue of playing match-ups. So long as you aren’t scratching to find a flex starter each week of course.
Keeper Outlook – Croyle and……
Overall – It’s pretty simple with this team, if those top three picks all stay healthy and live up to their projections, this team will be in the hunt. If he picks his spots and the QB by committee works out to its peak potential he’ll be talking playoffs. However, if he loses a WR and a RB for any length of time he’s totally screwed due to the lack of depth.
MunchsUrbanAchievers (Munch)
QB – Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith
Rock solid tandem. I worry about the Seattle passing game regressing a bit because of the turn over in personnel, but he’s still a quality starter. He’s also typically as healthy as anyone. Alex Smith really grew into the position last year but he lost Norv Turner as his OC. Norv has a habit of getting career years out of players, so it’s possible Smith ’06 season was the outlier. Either way, he’s a hell of a value in the 14th round as a keeper
RB – Brian Westbrook, DeAngelo Williams, Jerious Norwood, Vernand Morency, Tony Hunt, Jesse Chatman
That’s a lot of RB there. I talk up the need for RB depth as much as anyone, but due to diminishing returns taking fliers on ambulance chasers usually does more harm than good. Not sure this qualifies since Williams and Norwood are going to see considerable time, especially near the goal line, but I’m not sure you need to spend 3 more picks on guys who could be posting double digit DNPs.
WR – Chad Johnson, Jerricho Cotchery, Joey Galloway, James Jones
The front 3 are good finds considering the number of picks used at the RB position, but the depth is abysmal. Jones is a #3 guy on a team that doesn’t use many 3-WR sets. I think CJ will make a step up from last season, though he’ll fall short of his 2000 yard prediction, and Galloway is going to have a more capable QB throwing at him this season. If they both have big years they depth might be irrelevant.
TE – Jeremy Shockey
I have a feeling he’s going to have a monster year. Disappointed I couldn’t land him, and he’ll act as a great WR2 if the Cotchery/Galloway tandem flounders.
K – Matt Stover
Um, I’m pretty sure he will kick some field goals. Maybe a couple a game even.
DEF – Denver, Carolina
I’m down on the Panther defense for the first time in a while, but this is another situation where playing the match-ups with two above average defenses could net you an extra 5 or 6 points each week. I think Denver might be good enough to render that Panther D roster spot a waste, but it’s a valid strategy.
Keeper Outlook – Hunt, Chatman, Alex Smith again. Though I doubt Hunt and Chatman will ever be more than injury fill-ins, neither is apt to be promoted permanently, which is what you ask for from a keeper.
Overall – If Williams and Norwood both end up getting 25+ carries a game before mid-season this team is going to be excellent. If neither seizes that feature role and remains TD vultures who get yanked on third and long he’ll be in trouble. Taking so many RBs almost requires you to start one at the flex position, so if any of your top three under perform and you don’t have the depth at WR to compensate you could be stuck in a hole all season long. Still, with first tier players at RB1, WR1, TE, DEF and a tier 2 QB the playoffs are a strong possibility.
** DrewBrees’Birthmark (BabaBooey)**
QB – Brett Favre, Chad Pennington
Man, I’d really hate to be staring at these two guys on my roster. Both will be allowed to throw the ball 40+ times a game, but INTs and injury will hang over them like the Sword of Damocles. Either could end up with 3500+ yards and 20+ TDs when it’s all said and done though.
RB – Rudi Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Bush, Greg Jones, Pierre Thomas
Now that’s what I call a RB stable. I was hoping to come and predict abject failure for the owner who drafted Benson as his RB, but this jerk had to go and spoil it by having three other studs starting along side him. Every single one of the top 4 guys could reach 1500 yards and aren’t expected to have to really split time. It’s just scary. Bush has excellent keeper potential, if he finds that form he had in college you might not be hearing from LaMont very often in Oakland. Having the guy behind Fred Taylor is always a sound strategy and I like Pierre Thomas simply because he’s out of Illinois. BabaBooey, you suck.
WR – Reggie Brown, Vincent Jackson, Jerry Porter, Craig Davis
With that group of RBs, the fact that he’s got 3 quality starters at this position is a little frightening. Normally I’d rip him for lack of depth, but he’s got 3 #1 WRs, Brown and Jackson in elite offenses no less, and will not have a shred of trouble filling his flex spot with an RB. If Craig Davis is able to earn his way into the starting lineup, which is a real possibility, this group should be good enough to act as a sidekick to the RB corps.
TE – Randy McMichael
A quality pass catching TE in St Louis is something of a rarity, and that offense is going to be very good. Expect him to have a very good year with Jackson keeping the LBs up tight and Holt pressing the safeties off.
K – None
So does this mean you’re going to cut my boy Pierre?
DEF – Chicago, Seattle
Another person with the 2 defense strategy. The Bears might make the Seattle squad mere bench warmers, in which case this is a wasted draft pick, but I’m not afraid to confess that I’d consider starting the Seahawks in week one.
Keeper Outlook – Davis, Jones, Bush and Jacobs again.
Overall – This team is very RB heavy and he’ll need to ensure that he gets passable production out of the QB and WR spots, but when you can probably count on at least 15 points every week from three positions you are always going to have the advantage every week. Balance wins championships, but RBs get you to the postseason. Having surplus RBs makes you a lock for the playoffs. Needless to say this team merits watching.
Omni, nice draft reviews.
I regretted drafting Holt over Reggie Wayne almost immediately, and after last night, doubly so 
omni, you forgot to pick your confidence.
No i didn’t. I just got it wrong.
Oh. In that case, read my previous post as smack.
You’re up next in the draft recaps, buddy…
Yeah, I fucked up my handcuff drafting big time.
I consistently figured I could wait longer than I should’ve, so I missed out on both Dayne and Bennett. Peterson doesn’t have one as a timeshare, so I wouldn’t have been able to get Chester Taylor.
If instead of Horn and Croyle I had managed to get Dayne and Bennett I’d be feeling a whole lot better about my team. Then I could’ve not bothered with a backup TE and used that spot for a keeper. Croyle was a panic keeper, and was only on my radar after watching Hard Knocks because of how hot is wife is.
Oh well. I wouldn’t say my first foray into legitimate fantasy drafting was a rousing success, but I think the team I ended up with will fare quite a bit better than an all-NY team would have, and not just because I won’t be effectively taking two full weeks off for byes.
Speaking of byes, the only action I foresee Baker getting all season is during Winslow’s bye week. If memory serves, Baker has a good matchup that week, so at least I have that going for me.
I’d actually forgotten He Hate Me’s real name, Rod Smart. So in googling He Hate Me I ran across this:
hehheh.
Just to be pedantic I’ll point out that the link and quote above is from sports pickle, a satire website like the Onion. Rod Smart, our patron saint, is still alive and kicking. Just so that no one gets all teary eyed.