Septimus, about Nate Silver and New Hampshire: Don’t pay much attention to his idea of a “tipping point” – he uses this in a specific way that doesn’t matter much other than “when are we likely to get to go to sleep on Election night.”
The phrase “tipping point” as you and I perceive it might be better visualized by looking at Silver’s “snake” diagram – that twisting red and blue rope-like thing (scroll down his main page). This changes almost day to day, but at least for now New Hampshire is clearly a key state – very close to that 270 threshold, AND polling tightly. The only thing holdong it back from being even more key is its relatively low EV count.
NH is definitely on my radar, although I had pretty much written Trump off in that state when he looked like he was imploding in his spat with the Khan family. The Granite State is back in play now it would seem, and I agree that it’s a potential tipper. Like you, my thought is that a NH victory by Trump would probably throw the election to the House if it turns out to be consequential.
I think the House would ultimately vote for Trump, though it might take a few rounds and some bargaining before that happens.
As I’ve said, no doubt in my mind Silver is a competent guy trying his best. But I question to what degree such models (not only his) have actually been tested, or are testable, in really relevant conditions. Again, if you want to test a model that gives the % likelihood of rain over next few days it’s easy to get lots of trials over a period short enough to be reasonably confident the underlying statistical process of the weather hasn’t changed. Harder to do that with elections, to know your approximation of the underlying process is true and hasn’t changed in several election cycles (or between various types of elections).
And there’s room IMO for doubt by same token about betting odds as predictor because those aren’t very deep markets and may be the same as the well known models in part because the players look at the models a lot. Anyway betting odds now are pretty exactly in line with 538’s polls only/polls plus all at around 40% chance Trump wins (6/4=4/(6+4)=40% is the most common quote now on oddschecker.com for Trump wins).
It is fair to say though that any of this is a nitpick relative to people arguing Trump has no chance or has it in the bag (though you probably wouldn’t see the latter here). I’m confident 40% is a better estimate than either of those positions.
But then there’s the problem of confusion between being 20 points ahead in a poll (game over) and 20 points ahead in probability (almost a toss up), which seems pretty common to one degree or another. I still prefer to just look at the margin in averages of relevant polls and see it’s close (as it is now) or not close. But that’s become unfashionable relative to model or market based odds of winning.
Though there won’t be commercial breaks during the debates, the debates are still a major money-maker for the networks if enough people watch, because of several profit centers: commercial time immediately before and immediately after the debates will sell at a premium; commercial time during post-debate shows will sell at a premium; banners and bugs on screen, as well as mentions by hosts, will send traffic to web sites; and finally, ratings for the debate shows, if high, will contribute to higher per-second rates for future commercial buys.
My point, of course: despite TV news-people’s ire at Trump for Rick-Rolling them today, they remain committed to making him happy–because he makes them money.
So Trump told the media he had something juicy about Obama’s birthplace and once he got them there he put the issue to bed by simply saying “he was born in the US” then went on to praise veterans and show off his hotel. Well played, Donathon.
He also didn’t apologize. Just an admission that yep, Obama was born here, like Trump made a one-time oopsie last week or something. Plus, he managed to get in some promo for his hotel. Crazy
Yep. He’s claiming that Hillary began the birther thing in 2008, and now he’s definitively found the answer and shut her down. Seriously. No, I am NOT kidding.
Well, the birther thing got started when Clinton was campaigning against Obama. So it got started *during *Clinton’s campaign. Close enough for Trump and his supporters.
Someone should point out Trump was a Clinton supporter in '08, so if anything, he was leading the birther campaign on her behalf.
As you all know I’ve been panicking but I think Donald Trump just gave Hillary a gift on this one. The media will be talking about this over the weekend.
The best chance for a one-punch knockout will be at the debate, and it’s possible that they battle to a draw on that occasion. I agree that this isn’t a fatal blow, but it’s bad for Trump in that he had worked so hard to claw his way back into the campaign and had all the momentum if he had just thought a little harder about how to put this behind him. Instead, there’s no more talk of Hillary’s deplorables or Hillary’s health – the weekend news cycle will be mostly about Trump. He also has a tendency to keep throwing water on the grease fire when these things happen so we may not be done yet.
According to Nate, whoever is the media story loses poll standing, so if I’m Trump my goal is just to stay out of the spotlight now. Let Clinton get the headlines.