I’m not trying to be snarky, but virtually no one who reports on these things for a living shares that opinion, for a few reasons:
The Sox rotation is in bad shape; if it doesn’t get help, the other 100+ million they’ve spent this offseason was basically worthless
Matsusaka is the best chance for them to help that rotation, viewed by a majority as a better investment than 100 million in Zito
All of the ridicule they’ll face if they screw this up, and
Last but not least, that their only real option if they screw this up is to throw $25 million at Roger and pray that he goes to Boston over NY or Houston, which is no shoe-in at all
For what it’s worth, there’s a report in the Boston Herald that says the difference is between $8 million a year for 6 years, and $11 million a year for six years. If that’s true, I have to think they’ll end up getting the deal done if money is the only problem - there had been speculation the past few days that Boras was looking for 15, 18, or even 20 million per year in the contract itself, all of which would be completely ludicrous.
The X-factor, as it were, is if Boras doesn’t want to get a deal done at all and he isn’t being completely forthright with his client (VERY possible, if you’ve been reading some of the articles by the Olney and Gammons types over the past few days - Boras hasn’t let Matsusaka even MEET with anyone connected with MLB, or visit Boston at all, and it’s very unclear how much information is actually getting through to Dice-K about this stuff). It’s entirely possible that Boras wants to use this as a way to blow up the posting system, even to the exclusion of getting this contract done. While that would likely be best for the long-term economics of this sort of thing, it’d be sort of a shame for the individual player that seems to want to play in MLB.
Anyways, that’s just the musings of someone who is being deluged with this stuff whenever I turn on sports TV or radio
It’s not that he was injured; it’s that he had multiple setbacks. If it was just a case of a guy got hurt, and now he’s on the mend, I think taking a chance on him would be a good idea. But the multiple problems Gagne has had over the last two years makes him too chancy in my eyes.
At least, I hope that’s how it plays out, given he’s signed by the Rangers and will be pitching against the A’s for the division.
Latest news has Matsusaka traveling to Boston with the Sox for a physical, so it appears that the financials are agreed to. Another conspiracy theory bites the dust.
Also, SI.com is saying six years and 52 million guaranteed (with another $8 mil in incentives), which would be a victory for the Sox side of the negotiations IMO if it’s true.
Is the suspicion of, shall we say, artificiality based on something you’ve heard or read, or simply your observations? Because if his performance was enhanced two years ago, then I think the A’s have even less to fear from the Rangers than usual.
Boston has been pretty active. Besides the big signing of Daisuke Matsuzaka they added:
Of course they already added J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo.
Their payroll is rising quickly and when all is said an done will probably exceed last years by at least $20 million. The gap between the Yanks and Sox appears to be closing again as the Yanks have shucked around $40m. The Yanks will still be outspending the Sox by a good amount however.
So there goes Brendan Donnelly, out of the division. The one consistent advantage the Angels have had over the A’s has been their bullpen, and everything I keep seeing says they’re getting weaker and weaker in that department (exception being F. Rodriguez, of course). And Texas has done next to nothing this winter. At this rate, I may start fearing Seattle more than any other team in the division.
Nothing concrete, no, but I’ve heard rumors. Doesn’t help his case that he had his first Tommy John in 1997, but didn’t become overpowering until 5 years later.
Heck, as a starter in 2001 he was 6-7 in 24 starts with an ERA of 4.92, but in 2002 he suddenly becomes a lights-out closer, and after three seasons of 45+ saves falls apart spectacularly right as steroid testing starts. That’s not a little suspicious?
He and Kevin Millar could start a “where did my career go after 2005” support group, as long as they had a clean supply of needles.
It’s been very interesting reading about deal after deal that will bring legitimate talent to contending teams. It’s a necessary counterbalance to spending the winter so far watching the incompetent dolts in Seattle’s front office being feasted on by more capable managers. Another year in the cellar, here we come! (And Mr. Bavasi, time to start polishing up the resume…)
The most damning item in that resume is the fact that, as you mention, he had Tommy John surgery in '97, but didn’t start blowing guys away until '02. We routinely hear these days about guys coming back from that operation and throwing harder after the recovery. I’ve even said before, the results you get from that surgery seem to create a player who’s every bit as artificial as a steroid shooter. Maybe it didn’t quite work out for Gagne. Definitely grist for the mill…
The really strange part of that is that usually, any improvement a pitcher’s going to make comes in the first 18 months after surgery. Gagne’s the only pitcher I’ve ever seen to have Tommy John, pitch at a “just barely good enough to stay in the show” level for 3 years and then become Cy Young.
The injuries piled on injuries are a warning sign too, because guys don’t just break down like that unless they’re coming off something. Well, unless your name is Ken Griffey Jr., apparently.
Toronto inks Vernon Wells to a 7-year extension for $126 million; sixth biggest contract in baseball history. It does not kick in until 2008, so does not affect the team’s payroll next year.
I’m of two minds about this deal. On one hand, Wells is certainly not the sixth best player in baseball, and J.P. Ricciardi has continued his amazing, inexplicable habit of always buying players at the height of their value. Not that Wells is a bad player; at worst, he’s a guy who’ll put up an .800 OPS and win a Gold Glove. At best, closer to .900, and a Gold Glove. But is that worth $18 million? Granted, it’s so hugely backloaded that he doesn’t really get big bucks until 2010.
On the other hand, the move seemed to come from the top; the team’s entire ownership and management group wanted Wells at any price. The team is profitable, in a vastly better situation than it was under the old owners. They seem to be trying to build the team’s legitimacy in the public eye back up from the nadir of the 1990s, when the team was ineptly run and marketed and alienated the fan base. Wells, in addition to being a fine player, is handsome, intelligent, a focused player and a family man, and is generally a great face for the team.
In other words, I think a lot of the money they’re paying Vernon Wells is really an investment in marketing.
Interesting analysis on the Wells signing, RickJay. Sometimes when looking at signings we forget about how the team is trying to present itself to its fans. Certainly, Toronto needs to earn some gold stars with the fan base; this signing looks a lot like that kind of thing. It seems to do more damage when a marquee player leaves, versus the benefit when a marquee player joins up, at least for Blue Jay-level teams.
The Zito auction went better for Zito than I thought possible. He got a full 7 years for $126 million. I believe this means he will earn $18m per year on average. Good for Barry. Ha-Haaaa on the Giants. What a Marooon, the genius GM has turned into.
Seriously, had Brian Sabean finally lost his mind?
As the Yankees investigate trades for Randy Johnson, they get the Kei Igawa deal done for 5 years at $20m. Including the bid of $26m the Yanks got a 27 year old lefty with good stuff for under $10 million per year and a reduced rate on luxury tax. It has a good chance to work out more economically then signing Ted Lilly. We will have to wait and see.
Unlucky Juan Rivera broke his leg coming off his career year and the Angels signed Shea Hillenbrand to a $6.5M one year deal. Shea can put up comparable numbers, but I feel sorry for Juan, an ex-Yankee farm hand.
All reports on the Randy Johnson trade talk has San Diego and Arizona as the two teams and the Yanks wanting high level pitching prospects back like the Gary Sheffield Trade. Randy inquired about a trade nearer his home but is okay with returning to the Yanks if nothing works out. Yanks appear to be trying to get either team to take the full $16m. I suspect, they will have to eat some part of it to get worthwhile prospects back.
The Zito deal sucks rocks. Now I know why the Dodgers got Schmidt. If Johnson goes to the Padres, that will reinforce parity in the division. Fuck that. Send Johnson to the Marlins. The operative rule must be: The Giants get nothing, the Dodgers get everything. Haven’t these people read the rulebook?
I can’t see how there’s even a market for Randy Johnson. How stupid do the Diamondbacks have to be for even THINKING of this? He’s 43, he’s breaking down, and he’s now a middle of the road starter whose VASTLY overpaid.
Unless the Yankees eat everything but 5 million bucks of his salary, I wouldn’t even pick up the phone when I saw “Cashman, Brian” on the caller ID.
