Hotel of Heroes mafia

The Game Room
721

Very true, except we have Pleo’s confirmation that she’s really third-party. Unless they’re both scum and this is some bizarre gambit. Man this game makes me suspicious of everything! :slight_smile:

I’d say it’s more likely that she’d honestly be redirected or blocked, rather than lie about it.

Which, of course, does nothing to dispel your earlier point, which is that we don’t actually truly know scum for her to kill. We absolutely could kill two townies through our own actions, and scum would help themselves to a third. Not good.

Since she isn’t forced to make her kill tonight as far as I know, would a good alternative be to let her live for tonight, as long as she does nothing?

722

Unvote Chipa
Vote Pleo it is a very powerful investigative result, and I’d expect it to be delivered differently from a Town player in the lead for the lynch.

To ushi’s points…

Though no one has so far entertained the offer of tethering my kill, it is possible that consensus would be for me to live and not try to kill Tonight. If consensus is for me to try and make my kill, then my offer is to kill whoever consensus wants me to kill. If my kill goes through as ordered, that would put any innocent blood on the hands of the consensus, not my responsibility alone.

If consensus is for me to kill, I could be redirected or blocked. That is a risk that I can’t address if there is indeed a scum redirector or blocker or Townie redirector or blocker who might choose to act contrary to the consensus.

There is no other method of communicating. I’m not a mason so there are no mason boards for me to post on. I’m not scum so there are no scum boards for me to post on. You’re either taking my claim at face value or you’re not.

Regardless of what consensus is going to be, I will be a worry for the Scum if I’m allowed to live past dusk. They aren’t going to know if I’m going to make good on my offer to be tethered or go rogue either.

723

Unvote ushi

This is big enough information that I really need some time to think about it. Unfortunately I don’t have much time: Right now I’m somewhat zonked out from a full evening of teaching labs, and Dusk tomorrow morning is around the same time I would be waking up. But I’ll try to use what time I have. And add me to the chorus of those who would really like to see more information from Pleonast. I can understand the reasoning for not wanting to tell us more about whatever vulnerabilities his role might have, but I don’t think the reasoning applies: If he’s Town, then he’s probably not long for this world, at this point, so we might as well get as much information as possible from him before his death. And, of course, if he’s Scum, then asking him for more info is just giving him more rope to hang himself with. At the very least, I can’t see any excuse at all for him not giving us his role name.

But to review the information we have: Pleo claimed to know Cookies’ name, alignment, and at least a summary of her powers, and Cookies confirmed it. This means that we definitely have one of two situations: Either Pleo really does strong investigative powers (which doesn’t say anything about his alignment) and Cookies really is as presented, or they’re both Scum together and colluding on some sort of trick. I doubt that it’s the latter: It seems a low percentage play to out a fellow Scum, especially one who hadn’t been getting much heat (I don’t think anyone’s voted for Cookies yet), as a potentially-dangerous third party. So I think that Cookies is probably telling the truth, or at least mostly the truth.

Now, the question does arise, what ought we to do about her? If we kill her now, we’re killing someone who could potentially become Town. If we ignore this whole situation, then we risk her not only becoming Scum, but becoming Scum with a bonus kill, which could be devastating in the endgame. I think the safest course of action is to let her live for now, require her to make her bonus kill now, and go hunting for the other Scum. Once we think we’ve probably got all the rest of them, if the game isn’t over, then we kill Cookies, too, in case she’s joined them. And of course, if she’s joined Town as of the time when we kill all the rest of the Scum, then we’ll just win the game and won’t have to worry about it any more. Meanwhile, assuming that she really only does have one bonus kill (more on that in a moment), we’ve ensured that she can’t actively target outed power roles or confirmed Town with it.

Now, the question of how many kills she can get: We have both her word and Pleo’s that she can kill, and we also have the word of both that she’s an alignment-choosing type. So I think it’s probably safe to consider both of those to be true. Someone who can make a bonus kill on every Night, and who joins the Scum team, would be hugely powerful for them, to the point that the game would basically be decided by which team Cookies chose to join. So I think that that’s unlikely: She must have some limitation on how many kills she can make, and the most likely limitation is one kill total. Plus, it’s hard to speculate about motives, but if she could kill more than that, I would have expected that she’d have killed last Night.

So that’s what I’m thinking we should do about Cookies; now what about Pleo? Here, I’m really not sure, without more information.

724

Cross posting with Astral’s consideration of my offer, so please strike that particular line.

725

I’m not positive, but I think we have to kill **Cookies **very soon.

Assume for the moment that the information we have from both her and **Pleonast **is correct. We then know two things.

She has a single Night kill.

At some point she must choose which side to join.

The way her PM is worded strongly suggests that her decision is independent of her kill (" you are going to have to choose", “you can’t be indecisive forever”). She indicates that she would like to be a Townie. I have no reason to disbelieve her at the moment, but who’s to say she won’t change her mind Tomorrow or the next Day, or whenever it is that she has to choose.

As **Pleonast **has reminded us, our duty is to our Team. But **Cookies **is a Team of one. She needs to do whatever is necessary for her own good. Today, she wants to join Town. This makes sense, because in general I think Town is a slight favorite going into the game, and it’s natural to want to be on the ‘good guys’ side. But what if things don’t go well for Town over the next Day or two? Will she still want to join us, and try to turn things around? Or will she decide at that point that it’s in her best interest to throw her lot in with the Scum?

I’m holding off on changing my vote for the moment because I’d like to hear some other opinions on the subject. I’d also like very much to hear a full claim from Pleonast. He seemed to be quite eager to have the Town divulge information earlier on, but doesn’t seem terribly forthcoming with his own now.

726

One more thought:

If the Scum have a Redirector, then they might be able to guarantee that Cookies’ kill targets Town. Now there are a couple if’s here…

First, they need to have a Redirector in the first place. Second, it needs to be of the type that targets the Actor, not the type that targets the Target.

Of course, if **Cookies **were to hold off on making her kill, she could potentially keep said Redirector occupied, preventing him from acting on any of the rest of us.

727

It’s a risk I can address - anyone can address it:

-If Scum redirection is possible, then we are giving Scum an additional kill. Cookies promises to kill Potential Scum Dude (assuming we pick correctly), and they just redirect that onto a known Townie. Boo-yah. If we pick incorrectly, they just let her Kill ride and pick a Townie. Boo-yah. Up to 3 townies dead.

-If Scum blocking is possible, then we gain nothing. They just block your kill.

In neither case are we assured of your resulting faction (assuming faction choice kicks in contingent on your kill somehow).

That’s a couple of scenarios where we could end up with 3 dead Townies. To risk that seems insane - especially when Scum knows who we request her to kill!

Or, is the idea that we aren’t going to tell her who to kill? That makes no sense. We want to tell her who to kill, and so Scum is going to know as well. It is highly likely then her kill isn’t going to end up on a Scum - they know the actor and the target.

I don’t see how asking her to do nothing and waiting gains anything. All the same analysis works every day she is alive - except we can become less confident that she isn’t lying about her faction.

I don’t understand even wanting to play the odds that could mean us losing 3 townies. That would put us 5 townies down. The “potential” that Cookies might go Town (assumedly as vanilla), can not balance out that risk. (And if we end up 5 Townies down, and she has a “choice” is she going to choose Town?)

Unless you are 99.9999%+ sure you have a Scum target, I don’t see why one would run the risk of a safe lynch balanced against 3 dead Town (not a crazy unlikely scenario).

(If this is some weird Scum gambit - which I don’t think it is for a second - then we lynch Scum instead of 3rd party, and probably get Pleo as Scum next which would be fantastic for us; that’s not a “weird” gambit, that’s an “Zak Branagan” gambit.)

728

How would the rest of you feel if you’ve devoted however many hours to a game for no good reason whatsoever? No chance of any kind of win?

I play this game to win and for the fun of the ride between starting the game and either winning or losing. I don’t play the game to waste my time.

I think I should have probably been immune to whatever investigative role resulted in Pleo’s information (I’m still considering it possible that he’s delivering the results from someone else), at least until I’d either tried to use my kill or I’d chosen sides.

If I had a win condition already, I’d take my lynch and go root for my team. But this is different from selfish motivations to stay alive with respect to a win condition. I’m trying to salvage things so as not to have wasted my time. There is a difference.

729

Remove me from the equation and you’d still end up with 2 dead Town in your scenario, a mislynch and a scum kill. It is also not a crazy unlikely scenario that the Town might find an extra kill handy in the future, like say, two likely Scum targets as early as Tomorrow due to Tonight’s actions of Town powers, or a slip, or a questionable post.

The redirection risk I can’t address/mitigate/control/make go away on my own if/when I do kill, but if Pleo is lynched and is a scum redirector, that is one way it could be mitigated, or if we have a town role-blocker who blocks well, it could be mitigated.

I don’t have to try and kill Tonight. If you trust for a moment that I’m claiming and pledging my Townie loyalty honestly, what is the risk of letting me live and not kill Tonight?

730

It is to Town’s advantage that Cookies stays alive for now. She is NOT NDCE. That is who we’re going after. A 3rd party complicates things, but she is not the enemy (yet). By lynching her today, that’s two days of mislynches and one day closer to a scum win.

Ushimitsudoki, you’re not helping your case by pushing for Cookies. It is to scum’s advantage that we focus our attention somewhere other than them. Cookies can’t go anywhere to escape and will always be under our eye. She knows she has a short leash.

And that extra Kill is handy. Scum will be preoccupied with her which should free up the other Town power roles. Plus, even if she turns scum, she will have to try to follow Town’s kill suggestion or fear exposing herself. The extra Kill seems like 75% win and 25% danger.

I am definitely willing to risk her staying alive now to focus on finding scum even if she might turn against us later.

731

If we trust you, then there is no risk that I can see in letting you live Today.

If we trust you, then your role is essentially the same as a one-shot Vigilante.

The problem is that you become more and more dangerous as the game goes on. The way I see it we can never be certain when you finally use your kill unless we have a Watcher that we can devote to you, and we’ll never be certain when you choose your alignment unless we have an Investigator that we can devote to you.

I do actually trust you at the moment, but I can’t say how long that trust will last.

732

I’m not asking to be left alive for the rest of the game. As soon as I have confirmation of the Town win condition, I’ll put the noose around my own neck if that is what it takes.

733

**I flat out don’t like this. Smells of Bussing Town Cred Souffle. **

I need to Vote Pleonast or Cookies. Oh Wait.

But, I guess Cookies can Kill Pleonast tonight, and I will be proven wrong.

Just can’t place the motivation from Pleonast at this point. It seems to… selected. I mean It says a lot for what is given, it says so much more for what is not given. That is, I wonder how Pleonast got this information. Did he make it up ?

734

Correction, if I don’t get to pick sides either Tonight or by the end of the Day Tomorrow, I’ll go willingly and quietly. I’m not asking for a blank check.

735

Y’know, the possibility of redirectors seems to get a lot of talk, for all the more common they are. In all the games I’ve seen on the Dope, I think I’ve only actually seen a redirection power once, in Pleonast’s munchkin game. Certainly, I’ve never seen Mahaloth use it. Yeah, it’s a risk that there might be a redirector in the game, but I think that, all things considered, it’s a pretty small risk.

Now, a roleblocker is a different story: Those are pretty common. At the simplest level, the Scum (if they have a roleblocker, and if it’s said ahead of time whom Cookies intends to target) could just choose to let the kill go through if the target is Town, or choose to block it if the target is Scum. Now, of course, there’s WiFoM here, in that they might also block a kill on a Townie, to make us think that person was Scum, and so on, but the net effect probably still favors Scum a little.

Of course, there’s always the possibility of Cookies not saying until after the fact whom she’s targeting, leaving the Scum unable to make an informed decision about whether to block. If she were a conventional vigilante, this would be the best option… But of course, she isn’t, since we don’t know how much we can trust her.

Gah. This whole thing is a mess.

736

Have we gone from Scum wouldn’t do that, to Mods wouldn’t do that? ***

737

What I think you’re smelling is a scummy Pleo trying to divert attention away from his own lynch by serving me up on a lucky scum investigation result platter.

He did not make up his results. His “so my lynch is not a complete debacle” statement would also ring true if he’s scum resigned to his fate of being lynched, hoping that distracting everyone with me will help keep his bretheren unexposed.

738

I’ll agree that if we have a high-probability Scum target, then take that road. But I don’t have one, and I haven’t heard anyone propose one.

Making reasonable assumptions (Cookies isn’t the only Town player in the world worse than me, Scum doesn’t kill multiple Town, no 3rd party kill, etc.) … the bottom line main point for me is:

  • If we lynch Cookies we only risk losing 1 town.

  • If we don’t lynch Cookies we risk losing 3 town.

Since I judge both of these outcomes are very roughly equally likely (that is, neither requires any far-fetched scenario to happen), without some compelling reason otherwise I must chose the first option.

Anyone proposing “rolling the dice” and potentially lynching a Town on a less-than-compelling case instead of taking a nearly sure safe play for Town, I consider suspicious as seven hells.

So, I’m willing to change my vote, but it will take a hell of a case to make it happen.

739

ETA: s/no 3rd party kill/no other 3rd party kill/

740

s/ETA/NETA/

Whatever. You know what I’m trying to say.