Because, assuming Town would direct Cookies kill (a tricky assumption in and of itself), we were in effect performing 2 lynches.
Multiple lynches are only a positive for the town if you have good targets, not if you are basically rolling the dice and hoping you get Scum.
Thus, the 7 kills on Day One example, which I apparently unsuccessfully hoped would be a clear illustration of the problem. I didn’t realize this was up there with Monty Haul in complexity. Unecessary kills by Town - especially when information is scarce - is a negative for Town. The odds - going strictly by number - are against Town, that is the nature of the game.
I’m not sure why this point seems difficult to grasp. It’s not only intuitive, but quite easily demonstrated by simply writing out the possible outcomes.
In that particular post I was specifically addressing your question to me, “what did she actually do wrong?” among other similar related questions.
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Further, let me note such reasoning does not apply to Scum (the numbers are in their favor), nor does it apply to some power roles. If one were the detective, for example, he certainly wasn’t shooting in the dark.
However, one can’t base an analysis on that because the power roles are unknown and ain’t talking (at the time of vote).
As an aside, this is what makes Cookies’ last missive to me suggesting that the logic only applies to Town Power roles all the more amusing - it certainly does not, as they may well be privy to information beyond simple mathematical analysis.
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Even further, I feel I’ve beat this horse enough. The play was stupid beyond even the math analysis:
- We increased uncertainly about Cookies faction.
- We make analysis more difficult, because the vote was irrational.
- We are almost certain to lynch Town toDay.
We were incredibly fortunate to get a Scum power role, else it could have been devastating. Yet, as is human nature, the result is being discussed as if it were a masterful stroke by Town, because no one wants to admit dumb luck.