I *could *say something about every player in the game.
I will say a couple things…
I think **Astral’s **argument about **Wolverine **is good. Some of **Wolverine’s **own arguments have been contradictory. He unvoted **ushi **for no reason Yesterday and then jumped on the **Pleonast **bandwagon late. He was also on the **Oredigger **bandwagon on Day 1. I’m just not sure whether he’s Scum, or just new and naive.
I’m conflicted about ushi. I actually agree with a lot of the things he’s saying, but I often find his manner of ‘speech’ irritating. I’m therefore having a hard time separating how I feel about his role vs. how he’s presenting himself.
And there’s one other thing that I’ve noticed, that I don’t know what to make of.
So far we’ve had 5 Town deaths. 4 of those people have been Vanilla, and one was a Mason. We have 6 other people who have made Town claims. 4 of those have claimed Vanilla, one Mason, and one Jack of all Trades.
If we consider that an outed Mason is essentially just a ‘more or less confirmed’ Vanilla Townie, that makes one claimed or known ‘Power’ among 11 claimed or known Town players.
We either have a dearth of Town Powers, or they’re doing an excellent job of hiding.
it’s totally meta, but may open this game up a bit. in the HP game, the role you have, had to pick after the 4th death. just piecing things together the best I can, to see if i’m jumping at shadows or whether there might be other info out there. TBH, i totally expected you to kill chip last night, if you were planning on going town. He was catching votes, and it would have been a town vig move to shoot at him. So i’m not sure if you doing what I expected a townie you to do is influencing my opinion of your townieness.
If i’m right it would implicate scuba as well. If not, then scuba may or may not be scum. Unfortunately, i haven’t been able to form a this way or that way opinion of him based exclusively on what he’s said.
Good point. I would criticize your case against me if it had any substance to it. As it is, you simply have a ‘feeling’ that **Pleo **was bussing me, so there’s really nothing to argue against.
Although, I can’t see a clear reason why pleo would make the arguement that he did, if he knew (and he would know who was scum and who wasn’t) that you weren’t scum. Why would he make that case against you, i mean he would have had to have known that some other reason would have come to light that would have allowed you to know that scuba was subbing in for ed, if you weren’t scum. What possible scenario can you ascribe to that scenario as it played out? The only other slim possibility was that he may have thought you and scuba/ed were masons and that’s how you would have known, but then why did scum shoot in the dark night 1. If they suspected you two were masons, then why not shoot at one of you?
I was expecting/hoping a lot more people to weigh in and say that I should not kill, and that didn’t happen. The only other justification that passed through my mind when deciding to kill that I haven’t shared yet, and it was fleeting, was the theory that I’d be less likely to blocked or redirected by scum if I tried to kill right away precisely because my chances of hitting scum would grow over time. I was a candidate for a Night kill, a candidate for Today’s lynch, there was perhaps a better chance that my kill would go through earlier than later, and maybe I’d get lucky gunning for someone I found suspicious and who was also getting heat from others.
I was also trying to talk my way out of being lynched yesterday for reasons that had nothing whatsoever to do with being scum, and everything to do with living long enough to get a win condition, as I stated repeatedly. Just think for a minute about the frustration level of playing for no reason. I didn’t have some Third Party win condition that was just hard to achieve, I didn’t have anything yet. And then I’m outed. It was a frustrating place to be facing the noose under those circumstances, and I’m pretty sure most of you would have been frustrated in my shoes.
In the first case, I think we just got “lucky”. I think Pleo made a sloppy play because he was busy IRL. It worked out, and that’s good as far as it goes, but I don’t ascribe any brilliant detective work to anyone.
In the second case, Cookies took - at best - an unecessary risk by killing when it was not required.
So, yeah you don’t get “credit” for getting lucky, and you get “blame” for killing Town when you didn’t have to.
Why do you conflate the two dissimilar incidents?
PS - I’d like to commend you for admitting you had your facts wrong yet again when asserting that Red was confirmed. Oh wait, you didn’t do that at all. Commendation Rescinded.
You have constantly voted for me, and every single time you have either had your facts wrong (and then insisted that didn’t really matter), or displayed such brilliant reasoning as we see here.
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I can’t really offer up a defense because the votes against me are garbage:
Chronos, who can neither summon the facts nor a coherent reason to back up his vote.
Idle, who appears to be voting because he’s still butthurt from Day One. He’s studiously ignored the fact that Pleo threatened to vote against me if I switched, mainly because it’s devestating to his case.
Meeko, who can’t even count to 3 meaning: A) not only did the entire math of something bad happening by not lynching Cookies totally go over his head, but B) he’s basing his vote on his prodigious math skill detecting a “PIS”.
*On preview I see someone has given Meeko his medication and, becoming lucid, he has unvoted me. *
Pants, who offers no reason beyond “Day One voting”.
Wolverine, who apparently doesn’t even think I’m Scum.
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I don’t think Pants is Scum, because he was either the first or among the very first to vote Pleo (despite Chrono’s hackneyed attempts at the start of that Day to vote me).
Same thing applies to Idle.
It’s not proof, and despite them both being poopy heads voting me, I don’t think Scum would jump on (and stay on) a fellow Scum so early.
Likewise, barring some unlikely reveal or counterclaim, I don’t think Red is Scum.
Further I know I’m not Scum. You can go back after you lynch me and if you have the intellectual capability evaluate my reasoning in the light of your epic failure having killed yet another Town.
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So, that eliminates 4 people from my consideration, leaving us with (based on post #807):
Wolverine
Outside posting anything beyond “I don’t think this guy is Scum, but I’m voting for him anyway” there’s nothing there. Leaning Scum.
ScubaBen
I don’t think he even voted yesterDay. I’m not sure at what point you think someone is lurking too much, but I really, really don’t like the idea that a player doesn’t even vote. Leaning Scum.
suburbanplankton
Generally agree with his reasoning, but he doesn’t seem to be the first to put it out there. There’s the whole pronoun thing to. Leaning Scum.
Meeko
Deplorable math skills, but hasn’t done anything I’ve seen scummy. Leaning Town.
astralrejection
Consistently votes Wolverine. Most ineffectual Scum player ever or a Townie truly suspicious? Leaning Town.
cometothedarksidewehavecookies
I’m not going over Cookies’ case again. She should be dead, but obviously has bewitched people in some sort of weird voodoo ritual. The sad thing is a Cookie vote toDay is more uncertain than one yesterDay.
storyteller
I don’t like the partial claim, especially because it just so happens that we can’t verify anything about it. Seems awfully convenient. On the fence.
Chronos
Couldn’t get his facts straight with a ruler. Couldn’t summon a coherent argument with 7 virgins to sacrifice and a pentagram made from Spock’s ashes. Leaning Scum.
You also missed that I voted for Pleonast on Day 1 as well. I didn’t have the strength of conviction for Day 1 to keep my vote on him, but I was already suspicious.
You don’t like my argument against Ushi? Fine. I thought I was consisitent on Day 2 saying that Pleonast looks to be the stronger vote, but whose death tells us nothing about the voting blocks on Day 1. Ushi’s death would (which we’ll agree to disagree about if it does). Once Pleo posted his investigation, I was waiting to see if he claimed cop (thus 3 hours before deadline). He didn’t claim and appeared to be stirring the pot by outing Cookies. I thought we had enough evidence to lynch him regardless of Day 1 voting blocks so I switched my vote.
My initial impression of Ushi was that he was just making rookie mistakes but was acting scummy. The problem is that Ushi continues to dig himself a hole and doesn’t seem to be letting up. His whole campaign against Cookies seems scum driven. “Let’s lynch someone that’s not scum now on the possibility that she could be in the future,” instead of finding those that are scum and have been doing scummy things. Also, why does Ushi not vote for Pleonast? Other than a part of post 653 he never mentions him. Is it because they are scum buddies and is ignoring any connection, good or bad? It also looks like Ushi is trying to draw up a last minute lynch of Cookies to save Pleonast.
Yes, Cookies actions on Night 2 have not been wise and needs further consideration. I’m also concerned with who made the extra kill and why. One of them (Wanderers or Mentalguy) was killed by scum and the other by ???
However, I’m trying to stay faithful to my commitment to Vote on Day 3 for the Ushi/Pleonast concern. Since we successfully lynched Pleonast, I’m going back and reaffirming my vote for Ushi. What’s hard to understand about that?
My whole point was lynch someone that’s NOT TOWN, so we:
a) don’t mislynch Town, and
b) don’t let the not-Town person kill a Townie
We managed to avoid (a), but hit (b) head on like a champ.
Is this argument is so complex? Or are you misrepresenting it on purpose?
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BTW, I don’t have any great faith in the “finding scummy players doing scummy things”, because I see too much “finding Town players doing things I don’t like”, an important if not-actually-all-that-subtle difference.
You can’t see a clear reason why **Pleo **would make a case against me? How about this?
He sees someone making a statement that seems ‘off’, that could potentially be PIS, so he points it out. If he can get enough people to agree with him, he causes a mislynch. And it’s a Day 1 case, so he’s not likely to take a lot of heat for starting it. And if he doesn’t get a lynch, he’s planted a seed that someone else might pick up on later. Like you’re doing now.
It was simply a case of Scum finding something that they could make a case out of and hoping the Town would do their dirty work for them.
I’d be happy to share, fantastic of you to ask. Make sure you have a pencil in both hands when I’m talking.
**Point the first:**Seek to minimize the damage caused by acting on uncertain information.
It is a design feature of the game favoring Scum that Town has little information yet must lynch every day, because the odds are greater that Town will lynch Town than Scum.
Therefore it makes sense for Town to minimize the number of kills it makes early. Town should only kill, then, when it must or when it is reasonably sure to have a valid target.
Thought experiment: As I pointed out to Chronos – which he in turn ignored – if on Day One Town had the choice of 1 lynch or 7, which should it choose?
Let me know when you fully grasp this point. To show you truly understand it, you may show an outcome graph illustrating the possible results of yesterDay’s vote comparing the scenario where we lynch you versus that which we do not, you may use a standard game theory graph, or the arrow-style described here if it helps. You may also just list out the possible results and “add them up”, much as a child would do. What was Town’s best choice?
It is truly only a small thing, yet I can’t help but notice it continues to elude you (and a few others not so brave as yourself to ask for help).
Once this is understood, we can move on to another crumb. I don’t want to overwhelm anyone.
NETA:
Concerns outside the scope of the game (commonly refered to a ‘metagame’) such as “it sucks that this is my second game in a row where I’m 3rd party and you guys would hate it too if it were you”, or “this gamemaster doesn’t usually include such-and-such role in their game” don’t impact the mathematical evaluation of the choices or their results.
Plus, of course, Pleo didn’t necessarily care so much if the case he was advancing actually led anywhere: Town can generally manage a mislynch on Day 1 without help from the Scum. But he presumably did want to look like he was actively hunting Scum. Making an argument that eventually gets refuted is something that a Town player might well do, but just coasting through the day without making any arguments is something that a Town player (at least, a good Town player) won’t.
ushi, I present it as a fact that Red is confirmed because, for all practical purposes, he is. I haven’t gone through and exhaustively counted to confirm that everyone has posted since his claim, but certainly most of us have, and nobody’s counterclaimed yet. If he were lying, then any half-competent genuine Mason player would have counterclaimed him immediately. Of course, any half-competent Scum would know that, too, and a trade like that is almost never worthwhile for Scum, so even before folks started posting after that without counterclaiming, it was already incredibly unlikely that Red was lying.
I never noticed that question… What post was it in? But to answer it now, if the 7 lynches are all at once, then Town should probably choose the single lynch, though it would depend on what other oddball rules were in play. On the other hand, if the 7 lynches were one at a time, with a death reveal after each one and before the next one had to be decided, then it would be a huge advantage to Town to take the 7, and they’d be fools not to take that option.
Nope, the Teflon Elitist and Pompous thinking is still among us.
I voted Pleonast for less. (In a previous game.)
**Re-vote Ushi.
**
Yeah, I know it’s a tad un-orthodox to call it a Re-vote, but I took it off to imply heat on Cookies. I want to believe her. And even if they are both scum, I would still want Ushi to go first. That’s the long and the short of it.
**And Bonus points for you Ushi, if you don’t go "Oh noes, teh metagame is borked! No wai Meeko still votes me! oh noes! "
**
It’s amazing how much this guy thinks he knows about Mafia, given his wealth of Mafia playing experience.