Anyone know what Vegas has to say about who will win?
Why not? Bush won on his Iraq policy in 2004.
It’s not about whether or not McCain actually has a plausible plan to turn the Iraq war around. It’s going to be about whether or not he can convince people he does. And he has an advantage - nobody wants us to lose a war. So convincing people we can still win is easier than convincing people that we can’t.
Interesting slogan: Iraq - We can still win. That about sums up why McCain will lose.
I am going to miss Tim Russert and his artful questioning of the candidates so much during this general election campaign. 
My prediction; an Obama blowout.
I think Obama is going to slaughter McCain. I think McCain is going to wish he had an A-4 Skyhawk to fly away in and escape the country in abject shame and humiliation. Obama has generated such a powerful cult of personality, it’s verging on literal mania. He’s more popular than a rock star - and he’s not even president yet.
If Obama picks Bill Richardson for VP, he even stands a chance at winning over some pro-gun people, since Richardson is pretty pro-gun for a democrat. (His being Hispanic doesn’t hurt either.) Most, though, will be way too turned off by Obama’s vehemently anti-gun stance to be swayed by that.
This article has Obama as the favorite by far.
The optimist in me hopes for a slim win for Obama, but the cynic in me knows that McCain will win in a blowout like we have never seen before.
That and the fact that the political futures market also has Obama as an overwhelming favorite give me much more confidence than any polls. Polls ask who you prefer to win; bookies and markets more objectively assess who you expect to win, based on all the evidence on hand. And that assessment can hold true even if it’s someone you oppose.
Now of course Big Brown can always lose, or a favored stock can slump. But the fact that both these indicators are so overwhelmingly in favor of Obama I think is significant.
Out of curiosity (as I have no idea), who did the bookies have winning at this point in the last election? I seem to remember Kerry had a substantial lead according to the bookies but that it narrowed down before the election (I don’t know if Bush was ever favored).
-XT
My guess is that for every disgruntled bigot who won’t vote for Obama because he is black, there is an antidote: A disgruntled black who has never voted before, but will register and vote for Obama because he is black.
If Obama’s staff hit the streets with registration drives in the poor ghettos, there will be a pool of new voters who have never before been part of the statistics.
Or am I missing something?
I agree that if people are required back up their short term predictions with money, they are less likely to engage in wishful thinking. Still, I recall that back around the time of the first primaries, they had Hilary as the overwhelming favorite to be the next president.
Do you happen to know how many real dollars are in play at Intrade on the presidential election?
For those not tuned into it yet, “Electoral Predictions Done Right”:
Back then, was there any reason to believe that she wouldn’t be? The prices on a futures market reflect all the available information. As new information becomes available, prices will change.
Sure, the facts that she’s not very likeable and that lots of people hate her. With the benefit of hindsight, I don’t think her odds were that great. But I concede that hindsight is always clearer.
Oh how i’d love to believe intrade. It has Obama at 61 while McCain is at 35 or so. That’s a very nice lead there.
I think that it will probably have Obama winning all of the Kerry States plus Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, and New Mexico. That’s 284. I think he also has a chance in Ohio and Virginia. I think Florida is slowly falling off the list of possible Democratic victory scenarios. Florida seems to be trending right.
I think it could be an early night when it comes down to it. If we see Obama winning Virginia and NC then I think it’s pretty safe to assume that he’s got the rest nailed down.
The point is though that the electoral map seems to favor Obama. I’d not want to be in McCain’s shoes for one second to figure out how to win. I know what that’s like. I remember trying to figure out a way Kerry could win last time around, and in the end you hope that the polls are wrong and that he beats expectations. It didn’t happen and he lost. This time Obama is in the clear favorite category. If things continue in the way they have so far, he’ll win.
I think Obama’s ceiling is around 330 EVs. That’s all of the states I mentioned above but including NC, OH, and VA. I don’t see him winning in IN, or MS. But guess what, he’s actually kind of competitive in MS in the mean time.
I m calling a 55-60% popular vote win for Obama and 290 to 310 EV’s.
This is beside the point. The point of the post was that futures markets and betting pools can be unreliable, in at least some cases.
-FrL-
It seems to me you would need to look at a good sized sample to ascertain this.
For the record, I think that the chances of an Obama victory have been significantly overstated. I put them at about 10 to 15 percent.
Well then there’s a lot of money for you to make at intrade.
You’re right, and I’ve been seriously thinking about putting some money down. I’m still trying to figure out exactly how the site works.