The electoral process is a race to the middle. Suppression of what is controversial or unpopular will follow. After a while they will look distressingly alike as they take poll after poll
and polish their issues to make them more appear more mainstream.
Then of course the swiftboating and downright flagrant abuses will sway a few ,who were waiting for an excuse to be swayed. Sadly it will get closer and closer.
Unless the betting pools and markets gave Hillary a 100% chance of being the nominee, then you can hardly say they were “unreliable.” All they give you are the odds at any particular point in time. According to the graph, Obama futures were under 10 in late 2007. That may have been an entirely accurate assessment of his chances of winning the 2008 election at that time.
According to some of the indicators, McCain has about a 40% chance of winning. Of course that doesn’t mean he’ll automatically lose. He’s doing a hell of a lot better than Da’Tara before the Belmont, who went off at 38-1.
Person 1: “I’d bet on Obama, since the bookies favor him.”
Person 2: “But the bookies favored Clinton a few months ago.”
Person 3: “That was the reasonable expectation a few months ago.”
My only point is that 3’s comment above is not responsive to 2’s point. 2 surely expects everyone understands that it was reasonable to think Clinton would win a few months ago. That’s part of his very point. He’s arguing (I take it) that “reasonable expectations” are still not very high quality expectations at this stage in the game.
That last is in itself is a claim which could do with some scrutiny. But person 3’s comment above, by missing 2’s point, fails to aim scrutiny at the claim that should be scrutinized.
-FrL-
I think it all comes down to turnout. Obama’s going to get people voting with his 50 state routine. No question, right? Will he get enough to change expectations?
Will the Republicans stay home in droves, as the Evangelists aren’t pleased by McCain? If both happen, we could see a blowout like nothing you imagine.
Doubt that’ll happen, but I wanted to point out ‘probability to vote’ is a interesting thing we’re not examining here. It shouldn’t be the same as last election.
A Presidential candidate who won 60% of the popular vote would win almost all the electoral votes.
Not close at all. McCain by a landslide.
I am voting for Obama. Half of you who say the same
will be pulling the McCain lever. Fear of terrorists,
fear of interest rates and the biggest American fear–
CHANGE-- always prevails. That other Dem lost for
the same reasons. What was his name again?
Religion and wives will put Obama’s nails in the coffin.
The whole “I don’t like his wife” thing and “what a weird pastor”
is stupid.
The only candidate I could ever trust is someone
ummarried who says, “What the heck is a spiritual advisor anyway?”
If you’re out there, please run next time.
You may be right, but I can envision a scenario where Obama wins big states with big popular margins and close races everywhere else. I believe the 50 state strategy will close the gap in many of the deep red states.
The way this race is going anything can happen.
Obama will win 338 - 200. (Great to see another post from you!)
Obama’s Fellowship Program is one of the reasons this election won’t even be close.
Is John McCain doing anything even remotely like this? Has any candidate ever? It’s a stunning endeavor, and I believe it will have stunning and overwhelming results.
“We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can withstand the power of millions of voices calling for change.” – Barack Obama
Obama 330
McCain 208
I.e. not close.
One thing to keep in mind is that the razor-thin results of the last two presidential elections were highly anomalous. These things tend to not be very close (at least from an EV perspective). Now, figuring out who will be the winner is more difficult, I can see plausible arguments and reasonable series of events that could lead to a large electoral college win for either candidate. I’d like to think that the large swing in party ID gives Obama some inherent advantage, but he quite obviously has some inherent disadvantages of his own to overcome.
So, my prediction - not close. But I’m not predicting a winner.
Has any other candidate for President begun his public life as a community organizer, or been immersed in that role as such a central part of his history and experience?
I’ve been giving Obama a win of about 8 percentage points, and I just mapped out some guesses at 270towin.com. My projection gave him 304 electoral votes to 234 for McCain.
Nope. And it’s incredible how relevant that experience is to this election process, and, in my opinion, much of the role of President of the United States.
Incredible, too, how it’s being dismissed by some as no more relevant than being a teenage lifeguard.
Well, just by Mr. Moto.
I think most people who honestly look into what Obama accomplished will agree it’s pretty significant, and a gauge as to the potential effectiveness of his presidency.
I predict also that Obama will make a better president than a senator (whereas, I’d say the opposite about Clinton or McCain.)
Something like that except it won’t be a slaughter–it’ll be a moderate EV victory for McCain.
And yup!! There will be plenty of retroactive bitching from Democrats about racism among American whites but the fact that they can’t see that racism NOW and will only realize it AFTER the election is indicative of the naivete and wishful-thinking among some liberals that helps make the Democratic Party always appear like totally shocked, deer-in-the-headlights caught completely unaware by the modern political realities in the USA.
“But… but… but… how were we to know that some Democrats would never vote for a black man? We saw no indications of any racism at all in America until after the election! If only we could somehow have realized this BEFORE the election!”
Nice job whacking over that strawman. Hope you’re proud of that little rhetorical accomplishment.
Actually, if you’d paid attention, you’d have noticed that the question of whether Obama can overcome latent racism in the U.S. has been raised repeatedly, including by his supporters, and certainly not just on the SDMB.
Meanwhile, in real life, flooding overwhelms the Midwest.
McCain issues a statement: “Our thoughts and prayers go out to all those impacted by the flooding throughout the Midwest. Cindy and I would like to extend our sympathies to all those who have lost loved ones, and stand ready to help those in the Midwest to recover and rebuild.” His campaign website has an unobtrusive link to the statement, buried in the lower left corner.
Obama’s website homepage opens to a large graphic + link: “Your help is urgently needed for victims of the Midwest flood”, with the link below to “Learn More” and the major story below that is: “Obama and Volunteers Pitch in with Flood Relief and Prevention”:
The links in the quote are in the original.
On another message board someone trotted out the same old ‘Obama is a Muslim, blahblahblah’ stuff. I had to call her on it. (Oh, dopey me!) Here’s what she wrote back:
I worry that the latent racists will pay attention to the blatant ones.
And he didn’t just join them for coffee, he put on work gloves, grabbed a shovel and filled sandbags right alongside the rest of the workers.
He puts his money where his mouth is and inspires others to do the same; something we desperately need from our leaders in this country.