How do you counter this? (vaccination hold-off)

i read it as my body my choice. If you want to be vaccinated go for it.

Hmmmm, fascinating. Except the unvaccinated have the potential to affect MY body. So it’s sort of like you’re saying that it’s also your choice to drink a lot and then drive. Or it’s your choice to swing your arms about in a crowded room.

I guess in your world, nobody else counts for much.

What annoys me is that the virus is getting naturally selected as well. If there is going to be a pool of unvaccinated people, that will be a reservoir of virus running around, and we’ll never get free of it. How to counter this? I have no idea, sorry.

Show the consequences - every day - over and over…

Our local TV news used to start every program with a daily count of those who tested positive (new cases) and the daily death count. Now that’s been pushed down to the third or fourth item in the program.

HOWEVER - it might help if the news could report “here are the daily numbers” - the breakdown for vaccinated/unvaccinated are… Don’t you believe that there would be a great disparity in those numbers?

OF COURSE it would not work for everyone - the mule-headed stubborn will just do what they do. But it might push someone who is “sitting on the fence” to get their vaccination.

Given the CDC is reporting that through April 30th there have only been 10,262 breakthrough cases in out of 101 million vaccinated people, of course there’d be a great disparity between the two.

But I’m not sure that’s convincing to someone who is still on unwilling to be vaccinated. If they believe even a little that covid is a hoax, they won’t believe that there were 500 cases in the past week where they live and 0 were vaccinated people. Why, those numbers could be made up to scare people into getting vaccinated!

I’d be willing to bet they see “10,262” cases and get freaked out because it’s a large number. But only in a vacuum; that’s only 0.0102% of the total number of vaccinated people. One hundredth of a percent, or in other words, about 1 in 10,000. Which is astoundingly low.

That’s the wrong ratio to look at. You want to look at how many cases there were among vaccinated people as compared to how many among the unvaccinated.

(and also at how many are vaccinated and unvaccinated, of course. But those happen to be on the same order of magnitude right now in the US.)

I tried doing a Google Image search for that poster, and while I didn’t find it, I did find this somewhat more, shall we say, impactful warning;

Either way, I’m sure that people are fixating on 10,262 as being a huge number, when in fact it’s very small in the context of the other numbers.

The problem, though, is that 10,262 is not the true number, since the CDC is no longer investigating mild breakthrough cases.

That’s no reason NOT to get vaccinated though. That’s the fallacy; it’s like saying “15 out of 100 homes with smoke detectors caught fire and had serious damage, therefore I don’t want a smoke detector.”

How do you counter vaccination hold off.

I’m not sure over what time span those 10,262 vaccinated cases happened. Can any one provide a comparison to the unvaccinated cases over that same time span?

Not quite. I’m not defending the quality of their logic, but there is slightly more to your soliloquy. Try this:

15 out of 100,000 homes with smoke detectors caught fire and had serious damage, therefore I don’t want to install a smoke detector since 1 in 100,000 people who climb a ladder to install a detector fall off and get hurt. And that might be me.

The point is that they are unafraid of the familiar random risk of house fire but are afraid of the novel and self-induced risk of climbing the ladder. Despite the fact there are 15x as many house fires as there are ladder falls.

As COVID has worn on, and especially for those steeped in the “it’s just flu” or “I’m too young to have a bad case” memes, the risk of catching the disease is random and now familiar. The novel risk is that of a bad side effect because of taking the active step of choosing to be vaccinated. It’s a cynical mindless (and definitely math-free) version of “Just my luck I’ll be at the airport when my ship comes in! So I’ll just stay home.”

The fact this psychological quirk of human nature is well known to advertisers and propagandists is not our friend when it comes to vaccinating the propaganda consumers.

Those cases cover the period January 1 to April 30; during that same time period, there were a little under 12 million total cases in the US [20.43 million had been reported as of 12/31; 32.22 million reported as of 4/30, per CDC Data Tracker].

Thank you. So let us say that every day the morning news show reported numbers like this
(Numbers rounded & averaged for simplicity.)

In there last 24 hours, there were:
100,000 new cases of covid confirmed
99,9914 were people who had not taken the vaccine
86 were people who had taken the vaccine

Puts a new light on things, doesn’t it?

I’m afraid that this would unduly scare people who had taken the vaccine. And OF COURSE there are people whom could not be reached by any method, for much the same reasons as conspiracy theorists who cannot be reached. But for everyone else - the steady drip-drip-drip of the numbers just might be the final thing they need to move them to act & get vaccinated.

Anyway, thank you for helping me with the numbers. Now, if there are any other responses to “How do you counter this?” I’d be interested.

Cutter Laboratories gave out 40,000 cases of polio.

Reviewing failures in the manufacturing and inspection processes, he exonerates Salk from blame and concludes that `the federal government, through its vaccine regulatory agency… was in the best position to avoid the Cutter tragedy’. Three larger companies produced safe polio vaccines according to Salk’s protocol for inactivating the virus with formaldehyde. The lack of experience and expertise at Cutter Laboratories, undetected by the inspectors, caused the disaster.

It’s fair to say the “Cutter incident” led to using Sabin’s instead of Salk’s vaccine technique.

People resistant to vaccinations in general may be hard to convince through logic or scientific reasoning. I ate breakfast and lunch today. I breathed in and out many times. Don’t tell anyone. But I put things in my body all the time.

Vaccinations have been understood in principle since Jenner and well understood over the last few decades. This vaccine is different in some ways but our advancing understanding is precisely why it was able to be manufactured independently in several ways quite quickly. It is true that the long term effects of both Covid and its vaccines are not fully known. The solution is not to wait decades but to conduct proper risk and benefit analyses.

I would suggest the death rate of Covid may be lower than 2%. An Economist study of excess death rates implies that by a few countries are underreporting Covid deaths by twelve times or more. Overall, the actual number of deaths from Covid likely exceeds 10m and the number of undiagnosed cases is also high.

But let’s go with 2%. This is a high death rate. The death rate for something like pancreatitis is 1%. My high school had 1000 people or so. Twenty deaths would be almost a full class. If you had a 2% chance of dying in an airplane crash, you would not normally take that flight. Not everyone understands math. Maybe getting the flu is not usually so bad for young people. People ignorant about science may not be the best advisors, but Dunning Kruger yada yada.

I really think this is the overall problem. I’ve had co-workers who had breathtakingly stupid logic for not getting flu shots, which ARE well proven and have very few side effects. FREE flu shots that our employers provided for us. The ignorance ranged from “Every time I’ve got the flu, I had the vaccine that year”, to stupider stuff than that. No conspiracy theories or anything, thank God.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but part of the thing with the mRNA vaccines is that we KNOW how they work in a way that isn’t quite the case with the other vaccines. There’s no disease organisms involved, dead or attenuated. And the mRNA itself gets destroyed readily by the body. There’s no vector (i.e. adenovirus) involved, so there’s no immunity to that developed either.

It strikes me that the people against vaccines are the same ones who eat organic food to avoid pesticides, without realizing that organic food uses pesticides, often more toxic ones than conventional agriculture, and in large quantities. They’re just ‘organic’ pesticides.

Sure. But I’d still accept this mRNA vaccine is different from most others in general and that there may be side effects to the vaccine that are unknown. It’s still the case that (in my view) the risks are small and the benefits are significant, based on current data. “Unknown long term vaccine effects” is a poor excuse, perhaps, but still the best one out of the generally weak counter arguments these naysayers proffer - if you aren’t allergic or atopic.

The deaths from covid have been heavily concentrated among elders. The actual death rate for young adults is pretty low. I think younger people realistically should be looking at the risk of lung damage and other non-fatal outcomes in evaluating their risk, but if they just look at the death rate, The case for being vaccinated is not all that compelling.

I looked at the risk of dying of covid, by age, during 2020, and estimated the average years of life lost to people is each age. That’s the average across the entire population for most of a year of mostly unvaccinated exposure. For elders, shit yes, it’s worth getting vaxxed. For young adults, the average life lost is not that different from the expected time they will feel lousy from the vaccine.

Now… That’s not counting the time some of them felt lousy from having covid. It’s not counting long covid, or any other side effects. It’s probably overestimating years of life lost, as people with lower life expectancy anyway we’re more likely to die.

But it highlights why rational younger adults may be vaccine hesitant.