Suppose in an alternate timeline at the first Trump impeachment the GOP would have seized the opportunity to be rid of Trump. Suppose that the bulk of the Republicans, and importantly, the GOP leadership (such as McConnell) had come out expounding on how awful it was that Trump had done. Sometime to the effect of “We support his policies but not his character, and the GOP will continue to promote these policies but with a leader that does not conduct themselves in such a disgraceful manner.” Suppose that Fox News got behind that messaging. 24/7. Trump bad, GOP good. OAN and Trump, of course, would be saying “Trump did nothing wrong. Witch hunt!”
Do you think the Republican supports including MAGA would have been swayed back to the GOP? Could they have broken the cult-like spell he has on them? Or would they have turned on them as they feared and been primaried out and/or have lost by MAGA staying home.
I.e., was the first impeachment a real chance for the GOP to have rid themselves of Trump?
I’m very torn on this. It is hard not to see that MAGA are rabidly loyal to Trump so I lean in the direction of thinking that MAGA would have turned on the GOP. However, a lot of them listening pretty blindly to Fox News. If Fox News were saying “Trump Bad, GOP Good” … maybe? But we’ve seen MAGA turn on Fox too?
My best guess is that Trump would have started his own party, and taken his MAGA crew with him. He wouldn’t have anywhere near enough support to ever win another national election, but it would hurt those that “attacked” him and made him a boat load of money. It would have been spectacular to see, and great for the country.
Republicans would have been creamed in the 2020 elections, as full-on civil war in the party erupted. As a result of their devastating losses, the establishment Republicans would declare the MAGA movement a full-on scourge. The MAGA folks, on the other hand, would declare the establishment Republicans a full-on scourge. The party would split. Republicans would eventually recover, but it would take several election cycles.
And I think establishment Republicans knew that, and valued their own party above the good of the nation, and chose accordingly.
I don’t disagree, but I guess I’d say that a bit differently. Whether that amounts an actual difference of substance versus just a difference of tone remains to be seen.
IMO the R Establishment on one side and trump + MAGA on the other were destined to have a fight to the death for control of the party. Fox could have cheerled for either side, and the war would still have occurred. Perhaps to a different outcome though.
In the very early days OAN, NewMax, QAnon did not yet have nearly the reach they did by 2020. It’s easy to forget those things were not nearly as potent in 2015 or 2017.
For sure the Establishment Rs best chance to avoid losing their party and the war to the MAGAts was to strangle trump’s candidacy and support in 2014 & 2015. Once trump had material numbers of personal followers, the R Establishment faced two choices: capitulate or be replaced. They chose capitulate.
I’d like to be able to predict that the OP’s scenario came to pass and the Establishment Rs took one election on the chin in 2020 and moved on to be a responsible opposition and responsible contender in 2024. I think it just came too late.
And frankly too hard on the heels of lackluster R candidates who did not inspire any sort of “base”. The “best” part of trump for so many right-leaning folks was that he made politics exciting and interesting.
I agree with most of this, with the small modification “establishment Republicans…valued themselves above the good of the nation, and chose accordingly.”
Establishment Repubs had several chances to take a stand against trumpism; immediately following the Jan. 6 riots, a few establishment Rs actually spoke pretty condemningly against trump, and it looked like the tide might be turning, but it didn’t last. They eventually hopped right back on the trump train, paying their fare with exclamations of fawning admiration once again. They are each too cowardly to risk giving up their own power by doing the right thing.
Look at Lindsey Graham; there was a fairly recent thread to the effect of “What does trump have on Lindsey Graham, anyway?” The gist being, Graham was a blistering critic of trump during the run-up to the 2016 election, then fell right in line to kiss trump’s ass after the election. What’s up with that? The general consensus of that thread was, it’s not anything to do with blackmail or Kompromat, as the OP had surmised or suggested, it’s just Graham knowing he wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in a South Carolina Summer if he took a real stand against trump. But talk to him in private, off the record, and I bet he would spew some anti-trump vitriol that would peel the paint off a barn.