Who’ll emerge as the replacement candidate on the ballots in Trump’s place? The answer, quite simply is: Trump. The various secretaries of state will do what their governors order them to do and that is to ensure Trump is on the ballot regardless of the USSC decisions. Failling to do so will put the governors’ jobs in jeopardy. And of course stating that Trump cannot be a write-in candidate is just white noise. If he’s not on the ballot, his base will still write him in.
Sorry, I wasn’t clear - yes, but I’m just saying that SC has to make that interpretation explicit.
Oh, then in then that case I expect you are correct.
What I meant was, since they are not in the business of conducting trials as finders of fact themselves, if they decide 14A disqualification should rest on criminal conviction, it seems to me that they need to be clear on exactly what criminal convictions would trigger 14A. How they decide that would presumably be the kind of reasoning you describe.
Keep in mind, for the purposes of this thread, it doesn’t really matter whether he could or should. This is really about who would be next in line and what might emerge from the chaos. The ruling could be that Trump isn’t eligible because he wore a tan suit once. Or that since he actually won the 2020 election by his own admission he’s not eligible under the more not elected more than twice to the presidency. The main premise is that Trump become ineligible.
This almost implies the U.S. is already a sham democracy. I just can’t believe it — especially because those governors would be defying a GOP court.
The closest to this I can think of is the Little Rock Nine. Would Biden have to call out a nationalized national guard as Eisenhower did? No, he would just have to give a speech backing up the court by saying that Trump votes will not count.
I hope you are right there, because illegal/wasted Trump primary write-in votes would indirectly hurt DeSantis.
It already is in certain quarters of the country. They’re ignoring court orders regarding gerrymandering and other issues that directly affect the ability to have an actual representative democracy.
And the instant Biden issues that, the shooting will start. Of course, the aim will be the bigots’ usual targets, but hey what’s a little collateral damage in the service of putting the dictator back in office?
I really don’t want to be correct on this, because my belief is that actual shooting will occur when those botes are discounted. Minorities will be killed, IMHO.
It would be Nikki Haley or DeSantis.
Haley’s path to the nomination is her polisitioning in the early primaries. She is currently polling at 30% in New Hampshire, with DeSantis at only 12%. Then comes South Carolina, her home state. She should do well there, but DeSantis might surprise because it’s a pretty Trumpy state.
If Haley blows out DeSantis in New Hampshire, maybe Christy drops out and most of his votes go to her. At this point she would be the overwhelming front-runner among the also-rans. Then if Trump is kept off the ballot or has a Big Mac health episode or something, she would be the obvious choice to get the Republicans out of the Trump era.
The big question is where do Trump’s voters go? Are they tied to Trump purely by personality, and without him will span the gamut of Republicanism? Or will they line up behind the next-Trumpiest candidate with a chance of winning? In that case, DeSantis would have to be favored.
Forget about the Trump kids. They’ve got all of Trump’s baggage with none of his skills. And after Trump, Republicicans will be looking for some way to get back to ‘normal’, whatever that is. At least I hope they do. We need more normal again.
Or he dies or gets a stroke or something.
Have you ever seen crabs in a bucket?
DeSantis was the fair haired fascist, but he’d done now. Stick a fork in him.
Right, nice links.
I can not see the GOP Nominating Haley.
Nonsense. Fantastic name recognition vs none?
But he could pull out then.
Look at this poll chart- note how Desantis run has run out?
Only on deep red states.
I thought my meaning there was quite obvious.
George Santos.
He does have quite a resumé.
That’s something I’m wondering about. A ruling in a single state isn’t compelling on any other state, so as it stands, the other states could just ignore this, and put Trump on the ballot.
But a SC decision would have the power to compel the other states to act, wouldn’t it? For this ruling to stand, the SC would have to find both that Trump committed the acts in question, and that the rules about ineligibility apply to him as a former president.
At that point, how could any state argue either, “Well, he didn’t commit those acts according to us”, or “Well, that rules doesn’t apply in our state”?
I think we’d need to establish that he wasn’t born in Kenya.
The only reason Haley is polling so well is because she’s still relatively unknown. She’s still Generic Candidate, and Generic Candidate always polls well. Once the low-information voters start finding out about her, the bigots will turn away from her when they learn that she’s a minority woman, and the non-bigots will turn away when they learn about her policies.
Yeah, I’ve said before that she’s only moderate when you compare her to the really extreme wackos becoming more the norm today (the full on MAGA types). By any pre-2016 measure she’d be considered quite far right.
I just saw this, Haley is shockingly close in NH polling right now.
I mean, if it’s just one state that’s not particularly significant, but I didn’t realize she was that close anywhere.
This is just a smear against Republicans. There is no evidence that Republicans won’t vote for minorities or women. Haley was elected governor in a red state, after all. Do you think those right wing voters voted without seeing a picture of her or realizing she’s a woman?
How many Republican members of congress are female or minorities? How do those numbers compare to Democrats, or to the demographics of the nation as a whole?
Nobody has stated this. If that was the case, she’d be polling at 0% and she isn’t.
What people are saying is that it will hurt her. A lot of the enthusiasm on the right that propelled Trump into power comes from the alt right, and the Republicans court that vote. She is going to have trouble getting the same sort of enthusiasm.
Note that specifically it was said that she’d lose the bigot vote, not that all Republican voters are bigots.
Not really relevant. Democrats go out of their way to promote women and minorities in office. It’s the only reason Kamala Harris is there. Minorities and women are treated like anyone else in the Republican party. This is even true on the MAGA side, where two of the most prominent members are women.
It’s also weird to say that Republicans would never elect a woman in response to Nikki Haley leading the non-Trump field. Modern Republicans love female and minority candidates, so long as they espouse the right values, because they are tired of being accused of being racistsexistmisogynist and would love to disarm that issue.
I’ll point out that the Republican field this year was very diverse. Tim Scott, a black Republican. Nikki Haley, a female visible minority. Vivek Ramiswamy is a visible mimority.