I’d say that unless there’s a “double dip” recession, Obama will wiin handily. With the economy in the crapper, his numbers are still pretty decent. And things don’t have much place to go but up. There’s also a pretty decent chunk of research that US presidential elections are pretty much completely determined by peoples feelings about the economy and Vietnam (which I think its safe to say will probably not be dominating the headlines in '12), so I’d say his current relatively decent numbers are likely the nadir of his popularity.
Jindal seems a decent choice to run against him. He’s had plenty of time to recover from his pathetic SOTU response, it didn’t help, but I doubt it will sink him. I previously thought Pawlenty was had the best chance in a general election, but he, like most other incumbent governors, seems to be falling in popularity in his home state. Lousiana, on the other hand, seems somewhat insulated from the recession by the federal money coming in to rebuild NO.
Dseid, that poll was taken two months after Jindal wiffed the GOP response to the SOTU address. I doubt he’s a front runner now, but I bet he’s doing better then 3%
Republicans will never accept a dark-skinned foreigner like Jindal. I am sure they will be hounding him to produce his birth certificate on a daily basis.
Simplico, why would you believe that when just this month “Louisiana residents voiced a declining confidence in state government and an increasing number say the state is headed in the wrong direction”?
Sure theywill. He’s exactly the right kind, an Asian with all the positive stereotypical connotations that has, not really “colored” as such. They want and need prominent nonwhites; why do you think Steele’s their nominal chairman (for now)?
Palin is a non-starter for the nomination. Too much baggage, and she quit her last elected position. They’ll use her for a few rallies, and possibly create a new cabinet post for her…SILF.
I think that the Pub who will beat Obama hasn’t hit the front page yet. I’m thinking of someone like Mitch Daniels, our esteemed governor, who combines the corn-fed values with excellent economic policy. I’m sure there are other good candidates out there who are still undercover.
For better or worse, Obama’s going to need a 9/11 sized event, and one that he handles well, to make it past the current load of crap he’s delivered so far.
And, as someone who would never vote for a Dem, let me say that Palin will lose horribly in the primaries, and be exposed for the political fool that she is. She’ll ride out the next 15 years helming a talk/radio show, and then drift off into the sunset…
Dseid, you’re right, Jindal hasn’t been as insulated from incumbent governor syndrome as I thought. I still think his chances are decent though, if for no other reason then the GOP bench seems pretty thin. Of the people that I would’ve considered likely runners back in '08, several of them have been overtaken by scandal (Ensign, Sanford), driven out of the party (Crist) or chickened out (Palin, I agree with Oakminster that she won’t even bother to run).
I’d also count Romney out, though he’ll definately make a go of it. Obamacare is too similar to Romneycare for him to win the GOP nomination. His opponents will beat the sacred underwear off him with his mandating people in his state buy insurance.
That leaves Huckabee, Jindal and Pawlenty on the list of people who seemed like lilkely candidates a year ago and still seem to have a chance. Granted there are plenty of other Republicans who might make a go of it who just haven’t been speculated as much about.
Obama is still at 50% approval (54% in one current ABC/Washington Post poll). He is not floundering or failing. He is still easily the most popular politician in the US, and no Republican even comes close. He will be reelected in a walk.
Remember, Ronald Reagan’s approval ratings were in the 30’s a year before he demolished Mondale for reelection.
Even at his worst, Obama has a hard base if about 47% that he never slips beneath. No Republican can get anywhere near that. His reelection will be comfortable. The Dems aren’t eveb going to lose control of Congress in November. For all the noise they make, the teabagger “movement” hasn’t actually moved anybody.
We say this about both parties every four years, and then it seems like the eventual nominee is…one of the people everyone was saying it would be four years before the election. This seems true even when it doesn’t make a lot of sense, McCain was floated as a candidate after '04, then seemed like he was dead in the water during the primaries and still managed to win. Similarily Bill Clinton seemed like a likely candidate for Prez prior to '92 until concerns about philandering rumors seemed to kill his chances. And then he still managed to win the primary.
That said, I’ll pose it as a question to the elder-dopers since '92 is pretty much the first election I have memories of, what was the last time a candidate went from having little or no Presidential buzz a year or two before the election to winning the nomination.
I disagree. Obama was talked about as a possible nominee almost as soon as he made his speech during the '04 Dem Convention. McCain seemed pretty obviously gunning for President during Bush’s '04 campaign when he switced from his former relatively hostile attitude towards Bush to sucking up to him every chance he got. Granted both might have seemed somewhat longshot (Mccain due to age, Obama due to inexperience), if you asked me in 2005 for a list of possible nominees for the 2008 election, I’m pretty confident that I would’ve put both men on the list.
Clinton was not considered a frontrunner prior to 1992, by the way. Cuomo was the one everyone was presuming would challenge GHWB, and few outside of Arkansas had even heard of Bill Clinton. Even after Cuomo decided not to run, Clinton was low in the radr. Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown were considered more likely. Even Al Gore would have been given better odds to get the nomination in '91.
I was actually for Jerry Brown early on and my intial perceptions of Clinton were that he struck me as unctious an smarmy. He eventually earned my respect on substance and obvious intelligence, but my knee jerk reaction the first time I saw him speak was that he was just another oily politician.
I think the GOP nom in 2012 will probably be Romney. Palin is ultimately just too divisive and crazy (not to mention stupid). I don’t even think she’ll run at the end of the day, She won’t want to do the interviews, and I think her ego won’t let her run if she knows she would have a high probability of losing the nomination, and obviously she would have no chance at all in the general.
I think Romney will have to try to choose somebody who can appease the wingnut, but it was also have to b somebody who has some kind of baseline, non-nutjob credibility with moderates and centrists – preferably somebody who can deliver a swing state. Pawlenty is too boring and can’t deliver his own state. My prediction is that Romney will choose Jeb Bush.
Vulnerable? Way too early to say. Reagan’s approval ratings were at 44% at this point in his presidency. Obama is currently at 50%, on par with Bill Clinton at the same point. Cite.
Of course Clinton and Reagan won re-election handily.
The Republicans are still busy tearing themselves up. I question their ability to get a moderate unscathed through their primary.
Obama has his own challenges. While he has been appealing to his more mainstream base he has been heavy on the ‘punch the hippy’ strategy and has alienated the most liberal supporters. Many people are disenfranchised. They think he did not deliver the change he promised(correct or not), those people will vote green or just stay home unless the Republicans put up a polarizing challenger.
The more moderate the Republican the better chances they have to beat Obama. Thankfully for Obama the Republican base is working hard to flush out their moderates.