The only way the Pubbies would even have a chance is with a nominee that comes out of nowhere who also isn’t a crazy person. All of the names currently being tossed around would have no hope.
Obama wins in a landslide vs…
Palin, she’s too stupid even for the Republican base to vote for her
Jindel, looks like a little kid and is probably too “ethnic” for the “real Americans” the GOP counts on*
Romney, not Republican enough for the Tea Partiers and most probably just stay home rather than vote for him
Yes, I called some Republicans racist. You’re offended, tough titties.
And he gave a bad speech at 1988 convention which led a lot of people to write him off for the 1992 election. So Jindal can recover if he works at it.
But I don’t think 2012 will be his year. He’s still young so the party leaders will figure it’s not his turn yet. And two of his biggest assets are his youth and his appeal to minority voters - both of which will be useless in a campaign against Obama.
I also discount Palin. She wants the nomination but I don’t think she’s got the stomach for the fight - an image she’s created by quitting the governor’s office and complaining about how liberals pick on her. Female candidates have to be seen as being tougher than men to appear credible - somebody like Hillary Clinton or Margaret Thatcher. Palin’ll be courted by other candidates for her supporters but she won’t get the prize herself.
My guess is it’ll be Huckabee or Romney. Huckabee if Obama is looking weak and the Republicans think they can fight him from the right. Romney if Obama is looking strong and the Republicans figure they need somebody who can attract the middle.
My prediction is that Obama will stay strong enough. He hasn’t made any huge mistakes or had any major scandals. The economy and national security are looking better now than they were two years ago. So his incumbency should be enough to get him a second term - beating Romney who’ll be the Republican nominee based on what I said above.
Well, Romney is, by definition, the generic Republican, in the sense that whatever values poll well with Republican voters by late 2011 will be his personal, “long-held” values, even if they’re different from the ones he holds now.
Not to mention that the wingnut base that will come out for Republican primaries isn’t going to vote for a Mormon, still. Four years will not lessen that problem. Hell, the two years since the 2008 primaries have only concentrated and distilled the wingnuttery. If I were a sane Republican, I’d hope like Hell that the teapartiers have peaked.
Jindal’s already said he doesn’t want the nomination, at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. That doesn’t mean he can’t change his mind, but usually when politicians do want to run they say something like, “Oh, it’s too early to talk about that now. Why don’t we talk about my great plans for the state of Louisiana” or some other non answer answer.
Even though anything can happen at this point, I think the nominee is going to be either Romney or Pawlenty.
If you look at the straw poll results at CPAC and the SRLC, at CPAC, the top four were Paul with 31%, Romney with 22%, Palin with 7%, and Pawlenty with 6%. SRLC, Romney had 24%, Paul, 24%, Palin and Gingrich 18%, Huckabee 4%, and Pawlenty and Pence at 3%.
Paul is a non starter, Palin energizes the base and there are people who love her, but she’s not really electable, and the Republicans know that. Gingrich is too cerebral and also too 1990s, and I don’t think Huckabee can get the nomination.
I don’t want a Chuck Norris of anything. He’s an idiot.
The reason why Jindal is a joke of a presidential candidate was apparent in his response to the State of the Union address. He’s more wooden than Pinocchio. He may be a capable man, but if he couldn’t handle the State of the Union rebuttal, he’ll never weather a presidential campaign.
That’s just how I roll. I hates me some Louisianans :rolleyes:
This. It doesn’t matter who the Republican nominee is if the party isn’t unified in 2012. A big part of Obama’s victory in 2008 was that the left and the centre both liked him, and didn’t see themselves as opposing each other. The tea party base and the moderate Republicans are still at each other’s throats after big losses in two elections. If they’re still a rump party in 2012 (and 2010 is looking like a “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” cycle for them), it’ll be a repeat of 2008 where a moderate has to radicalize himself to capture the base, and will lose the moderates in the process. There might be a dark horse who appears and unifies the Republicans because neither base nor moderates have latched onto him/her as one of theirs, alienating the other side.
I disagree with this. Now is the time for the left to feel all pissed off and disenchanted with apparently broken promises and fresh memories of riding the Magical Unity Pony; in two years they’ll have resigned themselves to having a reasonably centrist Democrat in power who throws them a bone now and then. I think the left is now where the evangelical right was in the 80s: content with the alliance that puts them in power.
And in 2012, Obama will likely have a hell of a record to run on. He got HCR, and he’s going to get Wall Street Reform. An immigration package is plausible if not likely. DADT will be dead by 2012–all the military testimony that it’s time has passed is laying the groundwork for a post-2010 election repeal that Republicans can’t argue against. And appearances to the contrary, the 2009/2010 Congresses have been remarkably productive, apparently. By 2012, Obama will have a laundry list of accomplishments to describe. If the economy isn’t freshly in the shitter, he’ll be comfortably re-elected.
And more death threats, most likely. With all the “I KNOW Obama is really a Muslim!” and “He’s not even American!”, do you really think the name Jindal could usurp the election?
If Obama actually does not win again, the only person to beat him will be any man with a name that rhymes with John Wayne.
How is Bobby Jindal going to win the primary in 2012? The GOP is becoming more and more radical. I don’t know ‘tons’ about Jindal, but as someone else posted earlier in polls he doesn’t do too well with the GOP base.
Which is irrelevant then as we’re talking about Presidential nominees. Not the Vice Presidential apointee. Palin became a name in 2008 and if she gets the nomination (:p), she’ll have been known for the last four years.
I agree with the consensus that the smart money, by a small margin, is on an Obama re-election at this point. But 90% of the outcome here will be factored on the economy and whomever the Republican Party nominates. And that’s completely up in the air at this point.
