Trump has built a career off having it both ways. Watch this:
“Of course I was elected twice. I won twice. Everyone knows. Even the fake Congress knows it. But they refused to certify my legitimate first election, even though we won bigly in court over and over. So that’s why I can run again a third time, first president in history to win election three times, because I’m so popular and smart. And you know what else? My first term didn’t actually count because the crooked Democrats ruined it with their fake investigations. Many people are saying I deserve a do-over for that unfair treatment. So who knows, I might actually go for four terms. The people want it, Congress wants it, the Supreme Court wants it, so it will probably happen.”
The election officials do. If someone is ineligible to stand, they will not accept his name on the ballot.
If they are corrupt or incompetent and enter him anyway then there would be a slam-dunk legal challenge to remove him.
If they ignore the court, and proceed with the election anyway, there would be another legal challenge that would render any votes for him invalid.
No. They rejected specific legal challenges such as “mail-in votes are unconstitutional, and should not be counted”. They did not rule that “Trump lost”.
In any case, it might not matter. If Trump says he won, and his opponent chooses not to challenge that claim, then t5he court can rule on the legal merits without considering whether the claim is true or not.
There was a case where the plaintiff claimed to be a Martian. The defence chose not to challenge the claim, and instead ask for a ruling based on legal merit. The Judge ruled that Martians don’t have legal standing to sue, and dismissed the case.
Obviously, the judge didn’t believe that he was a Martian. He made a ruling based on law, without examining the truth or falsehood of the claim.
So if both sides say “Trump won” then the judge can rule on whether his victory legally makes him ineligible to stand. It doesn’t matter if the judge
believes Trump won. It doesn’t matter if it is factually true or not.
Presidents are also supposed to be impeached and convicted when they abuse their office for political gain by soliciting perjury from a foreign government. Or when they commit actual treason by sending a mob to storm congress.
How did either of those work out?
What in the last five years of GOP shitbaggery makes you think any of them will lift a finger to stop Trump?
Another odd thing is that Trump has not yet (AFAIK) submitted a Statement of Organization or Statement of Candidacy with the FEC. He did this almost immediately after the 2016 election.
Good point. Since we’re idly speculating here, let me try this random walk on my keyboard, see what comes out…
Trump will play the 'will he/won’t he" game as long as he can. He will constantly talk about running, but he doesn’t have a team which can actually run him as a viable, winning candidate. He is too damaged politically - if you want record Democratic turnout, just have this guy the focus of the elections - and those that remain most loyal to Trump (MTG, Gaetz, Gosar) are also slowly being squeezed out (well, Gosar is too stupid to worry about) by the GOP.
I do not think he’ll run though. I know this cuts against conventional wisdom (one of the reasons I’m making the call, tbh), but I do not think he has the mental or physical stamina to go through all that shit again (not just running but the job itself), and he is too distracted by the legal and financial issues facing him to give the attention a run for the Presidency would require.
And if he does run, here’s the outcome: Increasingly under attack from legal and financial challenges (the Mazars repudiation of his financials is key), Trump runs a half-hearted campaign which makes his 2016 campaign look competent by comparison. He doesn’t have the help of Russia/Putin, and even if he did, a post-Ukraine war (if over by 2024) America isn’t going to be as sanguine about Russian contacts as we were in 2016 (well, for those values of “we” which do not include “me”. ). He lost in 2020 and in 2024 the Great Middle will remember him as the loud asshole who let COVID escape and was, somehow, beholden to the Butcher of Ukraine.
Except his fans. But fuck them. Their number is growing smaller daily.
He will run if he thinks he can make the most money running but I’m guessing he will drag out the “will he/won’t he” as making money by implying without committing is kind of his thing.
And Russia is probably not likely to help him out this time.
I think the half-hearted campaign IS the plan; at this point, I think he’d probably rather just bask at Mar-A-Lago in the adulation of his angry sycophantic base, rather than actually having to do the work of governing.
This way, he doesn’t have to actually admit that he ever lost, and he’ll have people adoring him and giving him money, without ever actually having to DO anything like govern.
Now whether that takes the form of an actual Republican nomination and loss to a Democratic candidate, or just a gimpy primary campaign, I don’t know. I would suspect the latter would be just as effective, without the risk of actually, you know, getting elected again.
Why, all the election officials in Democrat-dominated states, of course. That’s right. He won’t be allowed on the ballot in all those states that he was never going to win in the first place.
But if Republican candidates for Governor and Secretary of State (or other election officials) win in a lot of states, then a lot of election officials WILL be GOP.
You can’t rely on what happened last time because the GOP is actively trying to change the very things that stopped them the last time.
They want to fuck with the election, they’re passing laws that will let them fuck with the election, but not to worry, there’s no way the GOP-nominated election officials with let them fuck with the election!!!
Because he can make just as much money without going through all that campaign nonsense. The rubes might not notice that all their contributions have gone straight into his pocket until they line up on election day '24 and he’s not on the ballot.
Running for president is the gift that keeps on giving for him. He doesn’t give a fuck about being president other than being isolated from prosecution. He certainly doesn’t want to risk another loss. If he can milk the rubes for another cycle or two then that’s what he’s going to do.
). He lost in 2020 and in 2024 the Great Middle will remember him as the loud asshole who let COVID escape and was, somehow, beholden to the Butcher of Ukraine.
