From reading about Arab American voters, particularly in Michigan, they are not so naive as to think Trump will help the Palestinian people in any way. The way I’ve heard it framed is that Republicans and Democrats are equally bad for Palestine/Gaza because they support arming Israel. The only difference they see is that Democrats feel guilty about it.
There are very few that would be foolish enough to vote for DJT. They will mostly sit it out or vote 3rd party as a protest. Harris will likely lose MI and thus the election if things are as close as they actually appear in the polls.
I see the difference between the parties as the Democrats will work to get both sides to implement a ceasefire while DJT will give Israel permission to kill every man, woman and child in Gaza if they so choose.
I would disagree with this. I don’t think that they have delusions that they represent a silent majority, I don’t think it matters to them whether they represent a majority or not. They think that they should be able to dictate policy because they are objectively and morally right. Threatening Democrats with the possibility of a Trump presidency is their way blackmailing the party into acceding to their demands despite representing a minority.
I’m pretty sure that David Duke wasn’t going to be voting for Harris under any circumstances, so I don’t see any reason to bring him up in this discussion about Democrats potentially changing their voting pattern based on the situation in Gaza.
and more or less it came out- Biden could violate the law as trump did, but other than that, Biden couldnt really do anything more than he has. He has got the UN to pass two ceasefire resolutions, but Hamas rejected both. He could delay the shipment of arm, but not stop them, as Congress passes budget bills.
So Biden is doing just about everything he can to get a ceasefire in Gaza. And if trump gets in, things ill only get worse- far worse.
Not all American Jews support Netanyahu. And they know trump will only make things worse.
You mean Lebanon? Calling Lebanon a “sovereign country” is stretching the point, and Lebanon attacked Israel first. Rockets fired indiscriminately into civilian targets.
To put some data to this mostly correct contention.
Apparently in aggregate American Jews feel Trump is more solidly pro Israel AND overwhelmingly prefer Harris on the Israel Gaza issue. A few are pushed off from though. She is slightly behind where Biden and Clinton had been. But not much. Amazingly Jews are divided on the issue! Enough so that this Yom Tov our rabbi’s sermon was about allowing each other the space to disagree.
As an American Jew I agree with this apparent contradiction. Trump is “more solidly” pro-Israel because he’ll unthinkingly back any atrocities current Israeli leadership can inflict on Gaza. But nearly all the Jews I know think Harris will do a better job – as far as anything is possible – of keeping the conflict from becoming worse than it already is. And that’s to the long-term benefit of both Israel and the Palestinians.
Yeah, Trump seems to think that saying “Israel right or wrong! Go Netanyahu!” is supposed to lock in the Jewish vote but darn it, they keep acting like they’re individual people with minds of their own!
This is not a reply allowed in P&E, but as @DrDeth has been virtually trolling the board in the last 2 days, I will let you off with a stern mod note. Do not do this again. Take it to the Pit if you want. Flag the troll-like posts, but don’t let him set you off to get a warning.
As far as that goes mostly correct. Biden and Clinton got 68 to 70% of “the Jewish vote” and given the diverse opinions within that population it is hard to imagine doing much better than that.
The bit of disagreement is this:
Nah. A few yes, but your suspicion of a significant number is unsupported. The majority do not want to see “all-in on Israel’s actions”. And the small fraction that is both unhappy and single issue who were not already in the 30ish percent that voted Trump before are such a small percent of a small percent as to of little election impact.
I won’t say none though. PA has a relatively large Jewish population, 5%. That’s big enough that a shift of the margin by 5% would potentially be 0.25% of the vote, and in knife edge circumstance that could be decisive.
This must be being discussed somewhere on the board, but as I wanted to comment mostly on its possible effect on the election, I’ll put it here:
The immediate comment most observers seem to be making is along the lines of ‘this is so huge that it COULD be an off-ramp for Netanyahu to declare himself open to negotiations for cease-fire–and most importantly, return of the hostages.’
But of course if that were to happen in the near future, it would NOT advantage Trump. And Netanyahu would prefer to have Trump win (since Trump is so easy to manipulate).
So now we wait to see what excuse Netanyahu comes up with to explain why he must continue bombing Gaza into oblivion. (I hope Donald is properly grateful to him.)
Yes, Sinwar was notorious for being the (alleged) roadblock for every attempt to bring the hostages home. Which is part of why observers are talking about the opportunity this now gives Netanyahu to be the man to get the hostages freed.
My comment was about the unlikelihood of him being willing to do something that would help Democrats. (Not that the US election is Netanyahu’s top concern by a long shot—but it’s reasonable to believe he does prefer that Trump get in.)
As for your assertions that Netanyahu has been “open to negotiating” and your implication that 100% of the problem has been Hamas: I’d guess that most experts on the matter would be skeptical. Most, I’d feel confident betting, would say that there has been obstruction, at various times, from both sides.
If for whatever reason (new Hamas leadership more open, whatevs) a ceasefire suddenly emerges from this, yes it would help Harris. Bibi’s motivations are outside this thread’s subject I suspect.
I don’t think even a sudden ceasefire would change much at this point though.
