Johan Santana finally traded

The Game Room
21

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
Gomez is a highly rated prospect, possibly the #1 positional prospect in the Mets organization. In AAA he hit .286 w/ 17SB.
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He had 125 ABs in the majors last year. His stats are nothing special, but he struck me as being similar to Reyes when he came up – fast as hell, good attitude, just going to get better. He’s ones of those guys I will continue to root for.

As a Mets fan, going into the season with essentially the same team that just collapsed wasn’t going to be pretty. Does anyone know offhand what the Phillies and Braves have done this offseason?

22

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
He is going to look really good in Shea against pitchers and NL Shortstops & Catchers, isn’t he? Do you think he can get under a 2.00 ERA?
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It looks close to 2.00 is not an unreasonable possibility according to MetsGeek:

I’ll give even money for Santana bringing the Cy Young award back to New York for the first time since Dwight Gooden in 1985. Why? As a Twin, Santana’s averaged a 2.90 ERA over the past four years. Moving to a non-DH league knocks half a run off that. The difference in talent between the AL and NL knocks off another quarter run. Add in Shea Stadium’s penchant for keeping homeruns in check and the excellent Met defense and you’ve got the potential for a historic season.

23

[QUOTE=robardin]
If the Yankees had been willing to give up Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana two months ago, why would they have come down from that offer when it seems that might have beat out the Mets’ offering, regardless of who the Red Sox were giving up?
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Disagreements within the organization - one Steinbrenner was willing to make that trade, the other (and Cashman) weren’t, and the second faction won out - along with the fact that the Yankees probably didn’t want to be jerked around into raising an already big offer just to see what else would come along.

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[QUOTE=What Exit?]
He is going to look really good in Shea against pitchers and NL Shortstops & Catchers, isn’t he? Do you think he can get under a 2.00 ERA?
[/QUOTE]

I’m going to agree in principle, but disagree with most of the reasons given so far.

  1. Just to clear up a misconception, moving to the non-DH certainly does not knock “half a run” off someone’s ERA, contrary to **Ichbin’**s link. It’s close to .25 of a run. Here are the runs scored per game for each league for the last few years:

2007 - AL 4.90, NL 4.71
2006 - AL 4.97, NL 4.76
2005 - AL 4.76, NL 4.45
2004 - AL 5.01, NL 4.64
2003 - AL 4.86, NL 4.61

This includes unearned runs.

As you can see, the difference in run scoring between the two leagues isn’t really that big; it’s worth a quarter of a run or so. The impact of having a pitcher in the lineup is a little bit overstated; I went through some random years from 1973 to 1993 and couldn’t actually find ANY years when the difference in run scoring was half a run, and in some years it was like a sixth of a run. I know the “Half a run” thing is a common thing and to be honest, I’m quite surprised myself. Maybe there were some years when that happened but it seems to be rare.

  1. While Shea is a good pitcher’s park, Minnesota is (contrary to popular belief) not a fantastic hitter’s park, with a deep outfield and lots of foul ground. Unfortunately I do not have home run-specific park effects, which would tell us more about Santana than most pitchers; Santana, believe it or not, led the AL in homers allowed last year and so moving into a cavern like Yankee Stadium or Petco Park would have saved him a lot of runs. I believe, just by memory, that there’s not a lot of difference between Shea and the Metrodome in gopher balls, but I could stand to be corrected on that.

  2. I realize the NL is the inferior league, but it’s not necessarily a worse HITTING league. My wholly subjective impression is that the NL has pretty good hitting but is a bit slimmer in the pitching (it’s definitely just as good defensively, though.) And anyway, league disparities have a way of vanishing as players move around.

I think the biggest advantage Santana gets here is a better defense - the Mets were a much better fielding team than Minnesota last year. That makes a big difference, and at least in 2008 I do expect the NL will continue to be the lesser league and the Mets will be a better team than Minnesota. Minnesota had a horrible offense last year, which is why Santana went 15-13; the Mets had one of the best offenses in the NL. A big year is quite possible.

My concern if I were a Mets fan would be giving a huge extension to any pitcher. How many long term pitching deals have WORKED?

25

[QUOTE=RickJay]
2. While Shea is a good pitcher’s park, Minnesota is (contrary to popular belief) not a fantastic hitter’s park, with a deep outfield and lots of foul ground. Unfortunately I do not have home run-specific park effects, which would tell us more about Santana than most pitchers; Santana, believe it or not, led the AL in homers allowed last year and so moving into a cavern like Yankee Stadium or Petco Park would have saved him a lot of runs. I believe, just by memory, that there’s not a lot of difference between Shea and the Metrodome in gopher balls, but I could stand to be corrected on that.
…
My concern if I were a Mets fan would be giving a huge extension to any pitcher. How many long term pitching deals have WORKED?
[/QUOTE]

Here you go:

Shea
Dimensions: Foul lines: 330 (marked, l964), 341 (actual, 1964), 341 (1965), 338 (1979); power alleys: 371, 378 (current); center field: 410; backstop: 80; foul territory: very large.

Fences: Foul lines: 16.33 (4 wire and railing above 12.33 brick, 1964), 12.33 (brick, 1965), 8 (wood, 1979); power alleys: 8 (wood); center field small section: 8.75 (wood), most 8 (wood).

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Dimensions: Left field: 344 (1982), 343 (1983); left-center: 385; center field: 407 (1982), 408 (1983); right-center: 367; right field: 327; backstop: 60; apex of dome: 186; foul territory: small.

Fences: Left field: 7 (canvas, 1982), 13 (6 plexiglass above 7 canvas, 1983); center field: 7 (canvas, 1982); right field: 7 (canvas, 1982), 13 (canvas, early in 1983), 23 (canvas, later in 1983).
The only 6+ year pitching contract that actually worked out that I can recall was Moose’s.

Maddux, Smoltz & Glavine never had 6 years contracts.

Kevin Brown’s was a disaster.
Mike Hampton, Rockies @ Eight years, $121 million

Jim

26

[QUOTE=Ichbin Dubist]
As a Mets fan, going into the season with essentially the same team that just collapsed wasn’t going to be pretty. Does anyone know offhand what the Phillies and Braves have done this offseason?
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Amen.

Let’s see. The Phils re-signed Jayson Werth to a one-year deal and signed Geoff Jenkins to a two year deal to replace Aaron Rowand, who won a Gold Glove in the outfield, and who they lost to the SF Giants through free agency. They signed Pedro Feliz to a two year deal at 3B, and acquired OF Chris Snelling from Tampa Bay (for cash), and picked up free agent pitcher Chad Durbin.

Overall I think the Phils come out flat from last year. Pedro Feliz solidifies 3B, which was kind of a mess for the Phils last year (platooning Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms), but he’s not significantly above par for a major league starting 3B. Losing All-Star and Gold Glover Aaron Rowand and replacing him with a platoon Jenkins and Werth feels bad to me. And Durbin seems a long shot for the rotation, seems to be insurance against injury to a starting pitcher.

The Braves re-signed their closer (Rafael Soriano) and Mark Teixeira at 1B, acquired OF Mark Kotsay from the As, and picked up Tom Glavine as a free agent. They lost Andruw Jones through free agency to the Dodgers. And only The Shadow knows what the story will be with Mike Hampton this year.

Picking up Glavine from the Mets might have gained them ground in the division comparisons before the Mets picked up Santana. I think the Braves are the weakest of the three leading teams in the NL East, but I have long since learned never to count them out.

27

Of course, Santana will only be pitching in Shea one year.

Citi Field is scheduled to open in 2009.

28

[QUOTE=RealityChuck]
Of course, Santana will only be pitching in Shea one year.

Citi Field is scheduled to open in 2009.
[/QUOTE]

Dimensions: Left field: 335 feet; left-center: 379 feet; center field: 408 feet; right-center: 391 feet; right field: 330 feet.

Fences: Unknown

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[QUOTE=What Exit?]
Dimensions: Left field: 335 feet; left-center: 379 feet; center field: 408 feet; right-center: 391 feet; right field: 330 feet.

Fences: Unknown
[/QUOTE]

It will still be more or less at sea level. The really big difference, however, will be better lighting; Shea Stadium has poor lighting for a major league ballpark, which has a deterimental effect on hitting. We’d also need to know how much foul ground there will be.

30

[QUOTE=RickJay]
It will still be more or less at sea level. The really big difference, however, will be better lighting; Shea Stadium has poor lighting for a major league ballpark, which has a deterimental effect on hitting. We’d also need to know how much foul ground there will be.
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My understanding from the proposed stadium I saw, is there will be less foul ground. In fact, it looked like a lot less foul ground. There is a bit of retro Polo Ground look to Citi Field.

Sorry I forgot to include the link. It is worth checking out. These guys do a great job on their site.

ETA: Wow, there is a picture at the bottom of the page I linked that really shows how much less foul ground.

Jim

31

All I’m saying is, you won’t hear a word from me on this until a contract extension is signed. I’m not superstitious, but on the tiny chance that there is such a thing as a “jinx,” I’ll just reserve comment for now.

32

It seems to me that the Mets got Santana for significantly less than what the Yankees and Red Sox were offering. I can only assume this was a deliberate attempt by the Twins to move him to the NL. That or the AL teams were never really offering what was rumored.

Santana will look really good in Shea - that stadium really drives up strikeouts. The Mets also have to be prohibitive NL East favorites (seeing as how they were only 1 game out last year, ever after their spectacular collapse).

For the Twins, eh, they got volume. I guess you could look at the bright side and say odds are one or two of the guys will be good MLers. I just don’t see a bona fide “can’t miss” star prospect in that group…

33

How long of an extension does Santana want? I would be wary of ever giving a pitcher anything long term.

34

[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus]
How long of an extension does Santana want? I would be wary of ever giving a pitcher anything long term.
[/QUOTE]

Rumors are between 5 and 7 years.

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In case anyone was wondering, while I’m not sure it was THE first, ER was one of the first shows filmed and broadcast in 16:9…

36

[QUOTE=Justin_Bailey]
In case anyone was wondering, while I’m not sure it was THE first, ER was one of the first shows filmed and broadcast in 16:9…

[/QUOTE]

Damn multiple open windows!

37

[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus]
How long of an extension does Santana want? I would be wary of ever giving a pitcher anything long term.
[/QUOTE]

Supposedly six years and $150 million, which works out to $780,000 per regular season start. I find that really amazing.

38

[QUOTE=robardin]
I find this interesting, also. If the Yankees and Red Sox both had better offers on the table earlier, even if both offers were there primarily to keep the other team from landing Santana, how is it that BOTH teams pulled back at the same time?

If the Yankees had been willing to give up Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana two months ago, why would they have come down from that offer when it seems that might have beat out the Mets’ offering, regardless of who the Red Sox were giving up?
[/QUOTE]
Because the Twins blew it. They were trying to play the Yankee’s and Red Sox off of one another in the hopes that they could get an even better package – Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera (Yanks) or Lester/Buchholz/Ellisbury (Sox). Not a bad idea given the bidding wars that have gone on between the two in the past, but the Twins went about it with the subtlety of a 16y/o girl with daddy issues on prom night. As soon as it became clear that they were being played, talks cooled off and both teams had time to reassess their offers. The Yankees decided that they didn’t want to give up Hughes and Cabrera and pretty much pulled their offer. The last I heard, the Lester/CocoCrisp offer had been on the table until recently when the Red Sox pulled Lester off the table as well.

In an odd way, it seems that the Twins expected either of the two to give up butt loads of talent simply because they have butt loads of talent.

It wouldn’t be unreasonable to suspect that both teams considered what the had offered in comparison to what the Mets (the only other real team in the talks) were offering and naturally assumed that Santana wasn’t going anywhere and they would take their chances on him hitting free agency.

39

I think the Mets made out like a bandit on this deal. Of course, they have other issues in their rotation - can Pedro and El Duque stay healthy, will Oliver Perez continue his success or will he regress, etc etc. I think the deal makes the Mets the clear favorite in the NL East, but certainly not an overwhelming favorite, as I feel both the Phillies and the Braves have a better offense top to bottom than the Mets (of course Reyes-Wright-Beltran is a formidable 1-2-3).

So, it should be an interesting race in '08.
Disclosure - Been a Braves fan since the days of Murphy and Bob Horner, so take my analysis with a grain of salt.

40

As a Phillies fan, I think:

Well, there’s another good pitcher that I have to hate.