Johan Santana auction, I mean trade rumors and speculation.

Cafe Society
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I’ll start by linking is stats: Johan Santana Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

He is a great pitcher, I think he is the best in the majors right now. The drawback is that he will require a lot of prospects and maybe a 6 year $120 million contract or even as high as $150 million.

The front runners appear to be the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets & the Angels.

It looks like things just changed as the Twins got Delmon Young from Tampa in a 6 player trade. This is their answer to CF.

The Yanks were considered the front runner by many with a package of Kennedy or Hughes, Melky Cabrera & at least one prospect from a large list of pitchers.

The Yanks could really use Johan, a young lefty who puts up some innings and is very good in Yankee Stadium. A 1.17 lifetime ERA (only 23 innings though). If they can pull this off for only Kennedy of the nig 3 kids, it put them back in strong contention while waiting for more youth to mature on the farm. The problem is trying to make do with Damon back in Center Field could hurt and the Yanks may need to make another move.

Now the Red Sox might have moved to the top with a potential offer of shortstop Jed Lowrie and lefty Jon Lester, both 23, and right-handed pitching prospect Justin Masterson, 22 and either Coco Crisp or another prospect.

If they land Santana, this will be the team to beat with incredible starting pitching. This is a scary prospect for a Yankee fan like me. The only good news is Santana is terrible in Fenway: A 6.89 ERA over 15.2 innings.

The Mets are unlikely to land Johan, but some rumors had Jose Reyes being offered. Reyes has a very reasonable contract and is a spectacular player built for the Metrodome. They would several additional prospects including Palfry.

The Mets really need pitching and are willing to spend the cash for Santana. However, the Reyes rumors appear to be false and I think this leaves them looking at Haran of the A’s instead.

The Angels appear to be souring on getting Cabrera from the Marlins. To make the trade, according to the New York Daily News, the Twins’ list includes heavy-hitting shortstop Brandon Wood, a high-end prospect and an established starter – which the Angels could now afford to include. Los Angeles GM Tony Reagins is said to be pushing lefty Joe Saunders, with Smith insisting on Jered Weaver.

I still think the Angels need a hitter more than a top of the staff ace, but they cam pay him and appear interested.

Well that is my pieces together analysis, what does everyone else think?

Jim (I needed a break from the Ad threads and this fascinates me)

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The Sox are the frontrunners to get Mr. Santana’s services. They’ll trade for him and then talk contract extension with him.
The Tigers are talking about picking up Carlos Silva from the Twins (via free agency). Um. Why? There’s still talk about trading for Dontrelle Willis (from the Marlins). Um…why?

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No chance the Mets are giving up Reyes. They’re very unlikely to put up a package the Twins will accept unless they are forced to if talks break off with everyone else.

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I agree, but both Epstein of the Sox and Gene Michaels* appear to be leery of giving up a truckload of prospects and then having to pay out the giant contract.

I agree, I don’t see them giving him up, I think the Mets will pursue Haran instead. I guess St Louis is really sad about that trade by now.

Jim

  • Cashman tends to listen to Michaels more than anyone else on the Yanks not names Steinbrenner.
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I think the Yankees picking up Santana will mean the difference between the Yankees making the post-season, and…the Yankees making the post-season. The reality is, the Yankees are going to be there at the end of the season no matter what, unless there is an earth-shaking something that happens to the team. Just look at last season: NY gets off to an awful start, everyone is snickering, writing them off. Guess who wound up in the playoffs anyway? If Santana is traded to NY, that just means he’ll be the one winning 19 of the 94 wins they get this year, instead of someone else.

The real significance of that trade would be, not for the Yankees, not even for the Twins, but for other contenders in the AL. Even with Liriano coming back–an assumption still, at this point–you have to knock Minnesota down the totem pole quite a few spaces in terms of playoff contenders. The trade will mean much more to Detroit and Cleveland (division rivals) and Seattle, Toronto (probably) and Oakland (maybe, if they don’t blow up their team) than to NY. Those teams will see one less competitor for the division or wild card spot. (Of course, you throw the Yankees into that mix for the wild card if Boston remains solid atop that division, though that’s not certain.)

The same scenario applies if it’s Boston that acquires him, but I doubt they will. They already won the Series with what they’ve got; why add Santana and his upcoming huge contract? Sometimes you have to know when to say when.

As for the post-season, the team that gets Santana (presumably NY) has to like their chances in a playoff series with him, but he’s no guarantee. (See '06 AL division series, A’s vs. Twins.)

Now, Santana to the Angels could be a whole different, interesting scenario in any number of ways–but again, LA needs another bat more than another pitcher. Still, considering the pitcher…

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As a fan, would you rather the Angels got Cabrera or Santana?

As far as postseason goes, as a fan of the Yanks, I want Santana, but I am only willing to give up Kennedy of the 3 young guns to do the deal. The team would be a lot stronger next year if Santana is pitching at friendly Yankee stadium to open the round.

Jim

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As a Sox fan, I don’t think the trade being discussed would be terrible; after all, it’s Santana and his big Fenway ERA is only based on, what, two starts? Three? Not enough to worry about.

However, you’re looking at spending a lot of money on him when I’d rather hold on to Lowrie who will be a big upgrade over Lugo at some point. And Lester’s not Santana, yet, but he could be - and he’s a lot younger. It’s not like we don’t already have an ace or two on the rotation.

I guess I won’t be upset if we land Santana, but I won’t be torn up if we don’t, either. However, I’d much rather see him end up in red socks than in pinstripes, obviously.

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My guess is you’re going to get 50% of what you want, then. Especially if Pettite retires, but honestly, even if he doesn’t, the Yankees must land Johan Santana. If they don’t, and he goes to Boston, then the AL East is over before it starts barring utterly catastrophic injury. Beckett and Santana with Curt Schilling as the #3 would be nigh-on unbeatable in a short playoff series - it would take unbelievable luck to beat a team with that rotation.

And the Yankees, right now, are just the same team they were last year, but a year older and (quite possibly) minus Pettite. Without Santana, you’re counting on the idea that Hughes can replace Pettite’s production, and even if he can, you’re still running out the same team that finished in second place by a good bit and wasn’t a lock for the postseason until very late in the year. There’s not a really obvious candidate for improvement elsewhere.

The thing is, the Red Sox know the Yankees need Santana and aren’t going to let the Yankees get him for a pu-pu platter. Last I heard, the Sox had an offer on the table that included Jed Lowrie (their interesting shortstop prospect), Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, and another outfield prospect. That’s a better package than Kennedy/Cabrera/a second tier prospect, and the Twins would be crazy to take the Yanks offer over the Red Sox offer.

So the Yankees are going to have to improve on their offer, and the way they’ll go about it is to give up Hughes. Hughes/Cabrera/whoever tops the Red Sox unless they’re willing to do Bucholtz/Lester/Lowrie - and if the Red Sox will do the latter, I think the Yankees are probably out of luck. But I don’t think they will. I think the Yankees are going to trade Hughes, Cabrera, and whoever for Santana, then sign Andruw Jones to play centerfield. And I hope they do, because that AL East race would be damn fun to watch (although in such a case, Boston will have to make a move or two if its own to keep pace).

As for the Mets, I love the Danny Haren idea. He’s only 27 years old, he had an American League ERA just above 3.00 last year, his K/BB ratio is sweet, and he’ll come a lot cheaper than Johan Santana. Honestly, the Mets need to get that deal done, because they have to add a good starter. In the National League, Haren could be a Cy Young candidate.

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I think this is mostly gamesmanship by the Sox to force the Yankees into giving up a lot. If he ends with the Sox, that’s great, but they sure don’t need him. As a Sox fan, I’d rather hang onto ALL of the players whose names are being kicked around–Lester should be throwing in the mid-90s, Buchholtz just needs to be handled properly for his age and experience, Lowrie will certainly upgrade us at shortstop eventually, and having Coco around for Manny’s annual sabbatical would be great. In short, the Yankees need Santana a lot more than the Sox do and Theo Epstein knows this and isn’t going to make it easy for the Yankees.

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It won’t mean as much as it seems. The Tigers have been successful against Santana, Ordonez and Polanco in particular (then again, they’re successful against everyone…).

The only pitcher I fear is Roy Halladay. He’s not human. He’s great.

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I don’t know if Lester will become a Santana, but you always ALWAYS make the trade to move prospects for a big-time, big-game pitcher. Always move prospects for the “sure thing”. The first two pitchers would be Beckett and Santana. That’s a bad thing? With Schilling in the mix, and being great in big games, I’d fire off this trade with NO reservations if I were a Sox executive.

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Nope. The Sox need him. Everyone needs him. Who doesn’t need a bona-fide ace? Yes, the price is high, but look at your rotation if you acquire him. Life is great!

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If I were the Yankees I’d offer whatever combo of Hughes/Chamberlain, Kennedy, Cano, Melky, Jackson / Tabata, you name it to get him. The only think I wouldn’t do is trade both Hughes and Chamberlain, and I’d think real hard about trading either of them and Kennedy, as there aren’t a lot of candidates to fill the rotation spots.
I’d include Cano, as much as I like him, if that is what it takes. He’s a good young 2B, but it’s Johan freaking Santana… his worst year last year was as good as Dan Haren’s best.

But Hughes, Cano and Austin Jackson? If that is what it took, I’d do it. Can’t blame the Yankees for trying to see if they can do it for less.

All this assumes the Yankees can get a window before the trade to sign him to an extension, and can do that…

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Don’t be so sure he doesn’t stay with the Twins.

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It’s a distinct possibility, but I like playing the “what if” game when the Bostonites and robot Yankee fans are playing the “shopping list” game.

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…this just in. The Mets have traded Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. So the untouchable prospect, the guy we couldn’t deal for anything, anywhere, ever, winds up getting dealt for a catcher who slugged .336 last year and an outfielder who will probably hit about as well as Milledge would have, which is to say, not particularly well.

Let’s go Mets!

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The Sox could surely use him, but mainly I think they would either like to keep him from the Yanks or make sure the Yanks overpay for him.

I would not do any deal that included two of the young studs. Hughes, Cano & Jackson is pretty damn steep. I don’t know if you noticed, but Cano is turning into an All-Star caliber second baseman with a solid glove. I think if Cano is in the deal, then we should not be giving up any of the big 3.

I would prefer this, as a Yankee fan I would rather go after him either in July or as a free agent. Either way would tend to favor the Yanks more.

It never gets old for you does it? :wink:

Jim

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Who needs Santana? Here comes Brian Schneider and Ryan Church! Sheesh. Now that’s 3 below average catchers on the roster, and another 4th outfielder.

At least this should quiet the “Omar’s only trading for Latin American players” crowd. Freakin’ Mets.

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Isn’t that like trading a horse for two chickens and a duck?

What Exit? : Nope!

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Well, I was going to say “trading a horse for a big steaming pile of crap,” but you say potato…