I didn’t watch many Mets games, but what I did see from Mr. Milledge (usually from the stat sheet) I liked what I saw, but I wondered why he never got the playing time.
My original argument was simply based on the notion that, for the Yankees, the return from acquiring Santana would not be as high as for another team, because they’re already a playoff team from this past season. Same applies to the Red Sox, or the Angels. He wouldn’t significantly move them up the standings. Santana going to, say, the White Sox would be an entirely different matter. It’s a big move when a middle of the standings team acquires a Cy Young award winner, because they can count on moving up the ladder with respect to other teams. And the teams mentioned in the discussion–Red Sox, Angels, Yankees (if you give them credit for the up and coming pitchers, not the rotation they started with last year)–won’t get that bump from Santana because they don’t need pitching.
That said, I agree that if you can get him, you trade for Santana, because he’s been the best pitcher in the game for years. (Roy Halliday being, perhaps, his equal.)
I also reiterate: folks should throw a damper on any ideas that Santana = World Series win. Having the best pitcher doesn’t always translate into post-season success. If it did, the Braves would have 5-6 more Series titles than they do. Remember, Randy Johnson didn’t do squat in the playoffs until breaking through in '01. The problem is, in the playoffs, those guys across the field also (usually) have a very good pitcher, and their guy can often go toe to toe with your guy. The other team can wait him out, if their pitcher is matching your guy with zeros. The moral of this story: don’t anyone get too excited, no matter where Johan winds up.
And to answer Jim’s question: I’m not an Angels fan, I’m an A’s fan (for now), and would be happy to see LAA head straight into the toilet. But if I were an Angels fan, yeah, I’d still want to see them get another big bat. They’re not short of pitching. Another guy who can smack the ball would make them favorites in the AL next year, in my eyes.
Keep stokin’ the stove.
Does Torii Hunter qualify?
No, he is a good hitter and great fielder. They need a thumper like Cabrera.
As noted above, no. I’m aware they have Hunter now. I said another big bat. To complement Guerrero (and to a lesser extent, Garret Anderson, though he’s fading now). That team is still incredibly dependent upon what Vlad does. If he’s tearing it up, they win; if he slumps, they lose. Regardless of who else they put on the field. Someone like Cabrera would alleviate that to a great degree.
Bumping this thread to ask if anyone is still following the drama of this particular situation. Watching both the Yankees and Red Sox sputter around this trade has me wondering if the value of “prospects,” overall, hasn’t been inflated to a point that’s a little silly, in the end. I mean, right now, the Yankees aren’t planning to do this deal because they don’t want to include pitcher Alan Horne along with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. Horne projects to maybe a third starter at the high end, but stands a chance of never pitching effectively in the majors at all. Johan Santana is probably worth half a dozen wins. I just don’t get it.
I don’t get it in Boston, either, although the prospects in question there have at least proven something at the major league level.
Does anyone else share this perspective? That major league teams, in general, have begun over-valuing their prospects to the point that they turn down good deals in order to keep hold of players who never pan out? My own team, the Mets, held on to Lastings Milledge stubbornly for years. Had they been willing to trade Milledge and Mike Pelfrey, they probably could have traded for Roy Oswalt in 2006, which might have been the piece they needed to win the World Series. But they considered Milledge and Pelfrey untouchable, top quality prospects - the way the Yankees are now treating Ian Kennedy and Alan Horne.
Fast forward two years, Pelfrey looks like a marginal major leaguer at best, and Milledge just got traded for a pile of crap. I know teams have gotten burned selling off prospects for veteran talent, but it’s possible to go too far in the other direction and this Santana situation has me wondering if the league, as a whole, has now done so.
Part of the reason is that Santana’s trade value *goes down * since you’ll then be expected to sign him long-term, which is incredibly costly. If the Twins take 3 players that can contribute-cheaply-on a major league level, that price may be too high. After all, the Yankees and the Red Sox could simply wait a year and target him as a free agent. That way they hang onto valuable, (read:affordable) major-league ready in a year or 2, prospects.
This is why the Twins don’t want Robinson Cano. He’s only a year away from a huge pay-day. You can live with a bit less at second base and spend more money elsewhere.
I do feel your pain though, and it would be cool if the Mets had some valuable prospects.
I am following, (obviously).
The stories are conflicting on this.
Most stories indicate the Yanks balked at giving up Hughes, Cabrera and Kennedy. I think this was wise, as Hughes projects out to being an ace and Kennedy to a solid #2 guy. To give up too major league ready very young pitchers for the priveledge of paying Santana $100 to $120 million for 6 years is too much. This is the part of the equation that maybe you are overlooking?
If I were the GM, I would offer Kennedy, Cabrera & Horne. I think that is about as high as I would go.
There is a distinct chance the Twins hang onto Santana. He has said he would block a July trade and wait out free agency. Once he hits free agency, I like the Yanks chances. Especially as at the end of next year a lot of money frees up for the Yanks.
Pettitte’s $16m, Moose’s $11.25m, Giambi’s $21m, Pavano’s $11m, Abreu’s $16m and Farnsworthless’ $5.5m. That is $80.75m all at once.
Jim
You know, I’d fire the Hughes, Cabrera, And Kennedy trade out there without question if Santana had at least a couple of years left on his contract. The fact that you get him for a year and have to talk extension immediately after acquiring him really muddles this. Besides, we both know that the Yankees will go as high as the Red Sox. Boston has a better team. They had a better team last year, and unless the entire Yankee far system plugs in every single one of their holes with all-star production, they don’t have as good a roster this year. The Yankees NEED to make this trade, the Sox WANT to make this trade. That’s the difference.
You act like money is a hurdle for the Yankees. That’s cute.
Well, OK, but the key word up there is “projects.” I remember when Brien Taylor “projected” to be a lights out closer. I also remember the darkest days of Met fandom in the last twenty years, when they trotted out three pitchers who projected to be an ace, a solid number 2, and a solid number 3 - Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher.
The point is, projections on young players, and especially on young pitchers, are incredibly unreliable. It is possible that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy will end up being a quality 1-2 tandem, but it is at least somewhat possible that neither one will meet his projections. It is extremely likely that at least one of them will not. Given this, why not trade them for someone who, barring injury, is all but certain to be a number one pitcher for another six years?
Again, I realize it’s possible to go too far in this direction, and certainly the Yankees aren’t the only team doing it. But prospects are, by their nature, uncertain investments, and there comes a time when swapping them for a surer thing is the right move.
Precisely. If you can move prospects for a bona-fide ace that’s in the prime of his career, you make the move 100 times out 100 trials. Sometimes the ace will suffer a horrific injury or sometimes the prospects become better than you could imagine. Such is life.
Meanwhile, in Queens, Omar Minaya’s vexing transformation into freaking Jim McIlvane continues unabated.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/12/04/bc.bbn.mets.minaya.ap/index.html
This just in: Tigers win the Willis and Cabrera spree.
We didn’t need Willis. I don’t condone getting rid of Miller, but I’m happy with the returns. If the members of the bullpen are who we thought they are, then we’re going to be set. Offense isn’t a problem now (not that it was last year). I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Tigers sign Dotel.
Possible lineup:
Granderson
Polanco
Sheffield
Ordonez
Guillen
Cabrera
Renderia
Rodriguez
Inge/Thames
Um. God damn that’s a powerful lineup. Top three for damned sure.
I seem to remember back in the day, when the Elias Sports Bureau used to put out a yearly “Analyst” book, they had an article in one of those volumes about teams that trade away star players for prospects. The gist of it was, almost invariably, the team trading away the star doesn’t get full value. Or even good value. It’s not 100%, but most of the time you’re better off getting the proven major leaguer. So I guess, if you’re a team looking to acquire Santana, you do it, projections on prospects be damned.
But I think the fly in the ointment is money. Not even the Yankees can give a $100 million dollar contract to everyone on the field. The track record say you make the move, but I can’t blame a team for not pulling the trigger for the privilege of stacking that much paper out for one guy.
On the other hand, I’m now even more impressed by the Tigers’ moves this off-season. All that hitting, all that pitching. Whichever team gets Santana might turn out to be irrelevant.
Good Trade, but why bat Cabrera sixth?
I don’t know what the lineup would actually look like. I just tossed him in.
I’d think he’d go 5th?
My look at the Tiger package and links to there Minor League Stats.
The Tigers would send outfielder Cameron Maybin, pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and minor league pitchers, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop to the Marlins.
Cameron Maybin: He hit 10 homers in 296 AB and stole 25 in 31 attempts. His OBA was .393 off a .304 BA. He is a 20 year old. I just don’t think he is really ready for prime time yet. http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30970
Andrew Miller about a Hughes level prospect, except a lefty.
**Rabelo ** is a backup catcher and already 27.
Dallas Trahern: http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=29263 is 22 and shows some potential as a AAA pitching prospect. He is progressing nicely and good contributed in 2009
**Eulogio De La Cruz ** is a 23 year old Righty, http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=19161 He might also contribute in 2009 or 2008 in spots.
**Burke Badenhop ** is a 24 year old Righty and does not appear close or high end. http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=16647
Jim
Some further breakdown:
Maybin: 20 years old, hit .219 in the Arizona Fall League and then strained his shoulder.
de la Cruz: 23, can start, but is best suited for relief. Throws in the high 90s and can hit 100. 3.52 ERA in AAA.
Rabelo: backup catcher last year, 27 years old, hit .256 and 18 RBIs in 51 games.
Miller: 22, went 5-5 with a 5.63 ERA last year. Throws in the high 90s.
Trahern: 22 years old, exceptional sinkerballer, 12-6 3.87 ERA; good but not dominant in AAA.
Badenhop: 24 years old.The Tigers’ minor league Pitcher of the Year in '06 and promoted to AAA. had 2 complete games in 3 starts.
I’m going to miss Miller. I knew the Tigers had a very good chance to draft him, so I watched him pitch in the College World Series and was impressed by how easy he hit 98 MPH. He had a variety of pitches and dominated the other team in long stretches. It looks like he lost a little bit of velocity last year, I suspect due to injury. I wanted to see him at the back of the rotation (which, right now, looks like Verlander ®, Willis (l), Bonderman ®, Rogers (l), Robertson (l)) but the rotation is rather strong right now and unless we get another huge rash of injuries, the starters should be fine. Again, it comes to the 'pen, and the organization is very high on a steal they recently acquired.
The Tigers sold their fans on Maybin and Miller as superstars of the future. Then they trade them away. It was a shock to see them empty the minors of so much future talent. Willis and Cabrera are 25 and 26 ,so age is not that big a deal. I suspect they were disappointed in Maybin when he came up. He lost a game by missing a fairly routine fly ball. He got worse the more he played. Miller showed flashes but did not dominate at all. But they gave up a lot of future possibilities. Maybe they think they can get Maybin back in the future if he develops. Florida wont pay him if he gets too good.
It seems that Santana’s position would require a team to pay twice, and if you’re Boston of New York, that strikes me as being stupid. It would make a lot more sense to hold back and hope for the likely scenario that the Twins will trade him without the extension - I do not believe Santana has a no-trade clause, so he’s stuck - and then sign Santana for just the money after 2008. It’d be nice to have him IN 2008, but it would be much nicer to have him in 2009 and keep all your prospects.
Santana is wonderful, but pitchers are inherently risky. $120-150 million PLUS a boatload of kids is just too much.
With regards to the Miguel Cabrera trade, I see the logic from both sides. Even if you’re not a Dontrelle Willis fan, the acquisition of Cabrera is unbelievably valuable; he’s far, far more valuable, in terms of likely future value, than Johan Santana. Twice as valuable. He’s 25 and a tremendous offensive force; the Tigers got an irreplaceable long-term superstar. It’s hard to justify paying a high price for that. Cabrera is unique in that he is already a proven Hall of Fame-calibre player AND he’s young.
Furthermore, the Tigers probably have to win in the next couple of years to get max value out of a lot of their existing lineup. Aside from Cabrera, the lineup is not young; Polanco will be 32, Guillen 32, Ordonez 34, Sheffield 39, I-Rod 36; everyone save Granderson (27) is over 30. Now is the time to strike.
For the Marlins, I guess they couldn’t afford those guys, and got good talent in return. A lot of blue chip prospects there.