Wait, New York beat out Pittsburgh and Kansas City in the derby to acquire the centerpiece of the Twins exodus of talent? And Los Angeles got Tori Hunter instead of Cincinnati? Looks like the big cities are going to finally start spending some money to try and get competitive again.
Twins fan here. I have little to no reaction on this trade. It was inevitible and these types of deal will always be inevitiable until MLB changes and implements a profit sharing/cap. I don’t really have an opinion on if implementing those would be good for baseball or not and don’t want to hijack this thread and turn it into a debate. I am just saying that we all knew it would happen, it happened and even though they lost the best pitcher in baseball, I will still be a fan of the Twinkies.
I have to say, the above is the part that blows me away about all this. From a Red Sox perspective, “pulling Lester off the table,” when a package of Lester and Crisp would have made the Santana deal happen, just makes no sense at all. I mean, Jon Lester has a chance - a chance - of maybe possibly being close to as good as Johan Santana. Santana is already there. Crisp is a nonentity, so basically you’re talking about making a straight-up trade of a player who’s already a Cy Young-quality pitcher for a player who might be, someday.
Ditto the Yankees. Does anyone really think the ceiling for Phil Hughes is higher than Johan Santana? Melky Cabrera is a nice player, but if you’re the Yankees, you can buy a replacement for what he provides without much stress.
And the thing is, even if Hughes turns out to be as good as Santana, he won’t be this year, or the next year. Trade him for Santana now, win with him this year and next year, and then - when Hughes’ price tag becomes too much for the Twins to handle - repeat the process, and get Hughes back for the next big pitching prospect. And so on.
I think the Yankees and Red Sox blew it on this one, but both will be rescued by the fact that they both blew it. If the Sox had traded Jon Lester and Coco Crisp to the Twins for Johan Santana, they might have won 110 games this year.
Consider the combined ceilings of Hughes and Kennedy (who were offered together, plus others, at one point if I remember correctly) or Hughes and Cabrera and whatever else was in the offer. Then consider the cost of signing Santana, at $25 million a year plus luxury tax, and, if necessary, a replacement for Cabrera or another pitcher, and contrast that to the number of wins Santana would have given them over what they already had. How many more games do they win, and at what price? From that standpoint, this could have been a very expensive trade.
Not true, the Twins waited so long on this that all the Center Fielders the Yanks could buy were gone. They had also already signed Andy back up for another $16 million. If the Twins had moved in later November/December, they would have got Hughes, Melky and 2 more top prospects. The Yanks would have then signed Jones or Rowlands or some other Free Agent CF. Instead the Twins GM screwed the Pooch and waited too long.
Additionally, the Yanks only needed Santana to not go to Boston. This is fine. We keep 4 top prospects and no harm. Melky is worth a little more than you think. Ask **RickJay ** if you don’t believe me.
As a Yankee fan, the ideal situation was no trade and we could just be the Yankees and sign him as a free agent next year. Going to the Mets is fine by me. I already congratulated Minaya on a very good trade. He did great.
Finally your recipe for baseball business is what got the Yanks their bloated payroll. Believe it or not Cashman, the Younger Steinbrenner and most fans want to see the team develop and then keep kids. This is why Jeter & Mattingly are so beloved.
Jim
I’m a huge, huge Melky Cabrera fan, and I have to admit you’d have to give me something tasty to get him.
Cabrera AND all your best pitching prospects for Santana is a bit much. I agree, however, that if the Red Sox actually had the Twins on the hook for Lester and Crisp they would be insane to not take it; similarly, I would gladly part with Melky Cabrera and one blue chip prospect (and some spare parts) to get Santana.
It all depends on what you have in reserve, and what that means for your long term potential. The Red Sox and Yankees are both built to win in 2008, but the Yankees, especially, need at least some of their blue chip talent to remain a solid team in 2009-2011, as the current roster is really old. The free agency pickings next year don’t look exciting. Acquiring Santana at the cost of high value prospects would have made 2008 look great but going foward, as Posada, Jeter et al. age, the team could become a $200 million 77-85 team. With their prospects, they can maintain themselves as contenders while the old guys drop away. Assuming the Blue Jays collapse around 2009-2010, which they almost certainly will, and the Orioles and Rays continue to blow, the Yankees don’t need to rebuild with their strong cast of youngsters already poking their way into the big leagues.
Conversely, the Red Sox have a somewhat younger core of championship-calibre players, and so look better in the two-to-four year range than the Yankees. Trading prospects for Santana would have made more sense for them.
The Mets made out like bandits; none of the players they traded away are painful losses. My concern for them, like the Yankees, is that beyond Wright and Reyes the lineup is old, although the pitching staff is a nice mix of youth and experience now. Effectively the Mets have replaced Tom Glavine with Johan Santana for a 2008 pennant run at the expense of Grade B prospects. I’d make that trade.
The Yankees and Red Sox seemed to drop out because they just didn’t want to have to pay the market rate for Santana. The Mets figured they could afford it: they’re payroll is lower than the others, and Tom Glavine came off the books, so a $25 million a year contract to Santana works out to only about $15 million more a year.
Most rumors also said that the Red Sox were never serious about Santana, and only bid to keep him from going to the Yankees. Once the Yankees lost interest, the Sox did, too. Santana fell to the Mets because Minyana expected the Twins to become desperate as spring training approached and would be willing to take the deal, even if it wasn’t the best.
Oh, I don’t think the Yankees should have given up Hughes and Kennedy together; there we agree. But if the Yankees had offered just Hughes and Cabrera, alone, say, Friday of last week, the Twins would have made the deal. I don’t believe Hughes ceiling is any higher than Santana’s current ability level. And Cabrera? I know RickJay loves him, but I don’t really get it. OPS+ says he’s been a below-average major league hitter for his career so far, and his OBP last year was .327. I don’t think he’ll ever slug above .450 or so in the majors, if that. He’s a nice little player, but these are the Yankees. The San Francisco Giants are going to be just awful this year, and they’re going to be paying Randy Winn - whose numbers have been uniformly superior to Cabrera’s - $5 million plus to help them suck this year; you could get him for a mid-level prospect, I’d think.
They’re going to be in a dogfight this year. The Red Sox haven’t gotten any worse, and the Red Sox won the division last year. Daisuke Matsuzaka is very likely to improve in his second full season. Andy Pettite is likely to be not as good as last year; Jorge Posada is likely to decline. Any net increase in wins is useful to the Yankees, and Santana might be worth 4-5. And as for the cost, again, these are the Yankees. I don’t really believe that they’re anywhere close to being in a place where they can’t afford to add payroll.
There is a difference between trading kids for overpriced veterans on the tail end of their careers, and trading them for the best pitcher in baseball.
Look, Jim, you and I don’t root for the same team, but we’re both New York fans, and I think we understand one another. 
I want to ask you a question, and I’d like to hear your honest answer:
Let us suppose it is September 15, 2008. The Yankees and Red Sox have been trading back and forth for the divisional lead, but on the morning of the 15th the Red Sox are holding a three game lead. The Anaheim Angels have been the Anaheim Angels, and are running away with the West, but Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are on pace for a combined 46 wins, and because they’ve gotten to pound the crap out of the terrible Rangers and terrible A’s while the Yankees and Red Sox beat on one another and get stung by decent Toronto and Tampa teams (yes, I said it, a decent Tampa team), the Mariners are well ahead in the wild card chase. Whoever fails to win the AL East will miss the playoffs.
But there’s hope! The Yanks and Sox are about to embark on one of those crazy stretches where they play seven times in eleven days. Win five of seven, and you’re right back in it. But the Yankees lose game one of the first three-game series. Now you have to take five of the next six. Coming to the mound for Boston in game two is Josh Beckett.
Can you say - honestly - as both a Yankees fan and as a baseball fan, that you wouldn’t be way more jazzed to see Santana pitching that game in place of Phil Hughes?
They might have. But in prior negotiations, I think two more minor leaguers (Jeff Marquez was one) were also included.
It’s unlikely.
Winn is 33 and Cabrera is 23, and last year was his first full season as the team’s starting CF instead of a utility outfielder. The Yankees have had some success in the last few years in breaking their habit of overspending for older players and trading away prospects for them. Trading for Winn would be a step in the other direction.
That’s very likely.
Which is where Cano, Cabrera and the three young pitchers they’ve held onto come in.
I don’t know what they can’t afford, if anything, but their payroll is astronomical at this point, and adding Santana would have cost $30 million per year for six years. That’s Alex Rodriguez money for a pitcher, who, good as he is, plays one-fifth as many games as Rodriguez does.
I still stand by my earlier analysis where you always trade prospects for that proven big league ace.
I’m surprised that the Sox didn’t just throw an offer that couldn’t be refused at the Twins. That would have pretty much crushed the will of the Yankee fanbase, but now they’re standing pat. Same with the Yankees, but let’s see how it pans out.
I need more convincing on the invaluability of Melky Cabrera. I’ll look some things up.
When you think Melky Cabrera, do you think Johnny Dickshot? He’s one of the players that Cabrera’s stats most resemble.
Also, through age 22, there are some interesting names that has similar stats to his. Take Roberto Clemente, for example.
He did slump badly at the end of the year but he’s my pet prospect. His K/W ratio is good, he played better in 2006, he’s young, and he has all the markers of long term success.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d trade him and prospects for Santana. Just not TOO MANY prospects. You can’t sell the whole farm.
In 2008 in that situation, I agree, but it would be taking the short-term view.
The Yanks are getting old. The core is getting old. Hughes & Cabrera & two more AAA/AA pitchers were too much. I want to see the Yanks build a new young core to go with the aging core of Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera & Posada. The young pitchers, Cano & Cabrera are centerpieces to this new core. I hate the idea of staying old and staying expensive. If the Twins had moved in late November when the Yanks could still land a free agent CF, I would have move Cabrera & Kennedy and the two prospects. This would still have been a better deal than what the Mets gave the Twins.
I am happy with what the Yanks did, I understand what the Red Sox did as Santana’s salary would have had the 40% luxury tax penalty on it. Their budget is not as high as the Yanks.
I think the Mets move was genius, I think they needed this trade more than the Yanks or Red Sox and I think they were in the best budget position to pay for it.
Great move for the Mets and the Twins struck out.
Jim (Remember the Yanks are suppose to be about building dynasties, not just winning for a year 
)
I have to say I agree with Cashman’s approach here. The successes of the Yankees of the past 10 years were primarily built on a core home-grown talent that avoided riding the Steinbrenner Express out of town while he was suspended for his Winfield Follies. The high profile veterans brought in over the past ten years – a pretty long sampling period – by free agency and trades have, for the most part, not been nearly as integral or even successful as Yankees.
Consider Andy Petitte’s good years in Houston from 2003-2006, after the Yankees elected to let him go and instead pursued Javier Vasquez, Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson in that time period. He could have been another home-grown, career Yankee with an excellent track record.
The fact is, the Yankees have a history of being able to develop and bring up high caliber players from their farm system. They can clearly pay market prices for the ones that reach the All-Star level. Why trade multiple blue-chippers while they’re still cheap, and who can form a nucleus for a string of playoff runs to come, for ONE player who you’d then have to “mark to market” in their prime?
The Mets have the opposite history. Their farm system has not been very notable. Never mind the past 10-15 years, what players have the Mets brought up that have stayed with the team even the majority of their careers, much less their entire career, that have been of any note?
In short, for the Mets it makes a lot of sense to trade prospects for the current top star, as that has been their ticket to success in the past. Who did the Mets give up for Mike Piazza and Al Leiter, or Keith Hernandez or Gary Carter (to name a few) that have come back to haunt them?
Focusing on the recent past (past ten years):
Piazza - sent away Preston Wilson, Ed Yarnall, Geoff Goetz. Preston’s been solid, but clearly Piazza was a franchise-turning player.
Leiter - A. J. Burnett, Jesus Sanchez, Robert Stratton. Burnett alone has “panned out”, but has also been injury prone. All in all, the Mets got more quality, meaningful innings pitched out of Leiter (who was a terrific big game pitcher for the Mets) than Burnett has had so far.
Even their failed trades involving “blue chip” prospects haven’t particularly come back to haunt them – Alex Escobar for Robbie Alomar in 2003, or Octavio Dotel for Mike Hampton in 2000. Well, except for the incomprehensible Scott Kazmir for Victor “The Wrong One” Zambrano. Bleh.
In other words, of all the “top prospects” the Mets have sent away in the past ten years, only Kazmir, Preston Wilson and A. J. Burnett have amounted to anything, and the returns they got far exceeded what they would have from those players even including the Kazmir fiasco.
In contrast, not only have the Yankees brought up and kept a lot of top talent from their farm system, several of the prospects that they HAVE sent away in trades have had major league success. Mike Lowell, Nick Johnson and Eric Milton for example.
So if I were Brian Cashman, already had a 230MM payroll, and had a mandate to try to win today but also build for tomorrow… I’d avoid trading Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera for Santana too. Chances are at least one, if not more of those top prospects will perform well, and if not, there’s always money to throw around later.
I’m glad the Mets have kept Reyes, and hope that he and David Wright can be the potential home-grown stars the Mets have been missing in a long time. I hope neither of them turn out like Edgardo Alfonzo. I had great hopes he would be a career productive Met, is still one of my all-time favorite players, and was saddened when the Mets let him go after 2002 following two disappointing and injury-plagued seasons. I was even more sad to see the Mets proven right that he was in an irrecoverable decline, and ultimately had only 5 good years or so in the majors. Seeing him play from 1997-2000, when he was still in his late 20s, really made his sudden decline shocking.
The Yanks are really going to regret letting him get away, who are their starters now- a 40 year old Mussina, Wang, Pavano, a clean Pettitte and Hughes- I don’t see that line-up striking fear in anyone.
This statement has been repeated so often, by so many fans and writers, that it’s become a meme, but I reject it as counterfactual. The Yankees success of the last 12 years - a period which encompasses their four World Series wins - has been built about equally on core home-grown talent and on trades and free-agent signings.
Paul O’Neill was acquired by trade for Roberto Kelly in 1992; his OBP in 1996, for the first Yankee WS title, was over .400. O’Neill would play and contribute to all four WS teams.
Wade Boggs, signed as a “big-name free agent,” had an OBP of .389 for that 1996 team.
Tino Martinez, first baseman, was acquired with Jeff Nelson (outstanding set-up man) on December 7, 1995, for prospects Sterling Hitchcock and top prospect Russ Davis. He then played first base for every Yankees WS team, drove in more than 100 runs in every year but one for 7 consecutive years, and finished second in the voting for MVP in 1997.
David Cone, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays midseason 1995 for two prospects and a retread.
John Wetteland, acquired from the Montreal Expos early in 1995 for hitting prospect Fernando Seguignol (considered a really good prospect at the time) and cash.
Chuck Knoblauch, acquired from the Minnesota Twins for pitching prospects Eric Milton and Danny Mota, infield prospect Cristian Guzman, and outfield prospect Brian Buchanan. Got on base at a .393 clip and scored 120 runs for the Yankees in 1998.
Roger “Needles in the Butt” Clemens, acquired for David Wells, infield prospect Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd in 1999.
David Justice - this one is pretty classic - acquired midseason from the Cleveland Indians for three players, all considered decent to excellent prospects at the time: Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, and Zach Day. Went on to slug .585 for New York in their final World Series season.
Sure, the Yankees built around a strong home-grown core in Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, et al, but those trades described above were essential as well. Many of the guys traded away in those deals were prospects similar to Cabrera or Ian Kennedy. Jake Westbrook had been a first round pick, and Zach Day was going to be a top pitcher. Eric Milton was a top-flight prospect who the Yankees themselves had drafted in the first round two years before they traded him. But if the Yankees had exercised an overabundance of caution in these situations as they did in the Santana situation - if they had never traded for O’Neill, Martinez, Knoblauch, Justice, Wetteland - you can bet their dominance would have been abbreviated or would never have happened.
That’s why I don’t understand this trade. Phil Hughes might be the next Johan Santana, or he might be the next Todd Van Poppel. Johana Santana is Johan Santana, and the man is still on the good side of 30.
Do you actually follow the Yanks or do you just bitch about them?
Pavano will not be pitching for the Yanks unless he gets of the DL. AS of right now, Pavano is not expected to start a game for the Yanks.
Wang & Pettitte are solid 1-2. Moose, Hughes, Chamberlain & Kennedy round out the 3-5 and a spare.
I think it will be Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Moose & Kennedy with Chamberlain getting a mix of starts and bullpen work to keep his innings to less than 170 for the year.
The Yanks have a pool of 7 more kids to fill in as starters if 2 of the 6 falter. I will name them if you so desire.
Jim
Money. Oddly enough for the Yankees, they are beginning to think that their high payroll is a problem. Santana will be the highest paid pitcher in baseball after Friday, and the Yanks are taking a long, hard look at how much they are paying.
Not to mention that the Pavano signing probably makes them a bit gun-shy about signing pitchers long-term.
And, ultimately, how many more games would Santana win them as compared to who they have now?
The Yankees made a good offer for Santana and if the Twins had said “yes” in December, he’d be wearing pinstripes. The Twins made a real blunder here – misjudging the market until they were down to only one option that they had little choice but to take. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear the Mets offer in December was better than what the Twins eventually accepted, since the Twins were over a barrel.
The last thing I heard on Pavano was he was “ahead of schedule” and could be ready by June- if that’s no longer the case, my bad.
To me Wang is the only sure thing, and a team like the Yanks usually has four or five studs in the rotation, or at least guys they think are studs. And they usually don’t have as their third starter a 40 year old coming off a season with an ERA over 5.