Johan Santana finally traded

The Game Room
61

[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]
The last thing I heard on Pavano was he was “ahead of schedule” and could be ready by June- if that’s no longer the case, my bad.

To me Wang is the only sure thing, and a team like the Yanks usually has four or five studs in the rotation, or at least guys they think are studs. And they usually don’t have as their third starter a 40 year old coming off a season with an ERA over 5.
[/QUOTE]

Pavano is clearly not in the Yankees plans for next year. If they get anything out of him, it will be considered a bonus. Nearly every article on the Yanks mention the 6 I listed.

Sorry for the zinger in the previous post, I just could not resist. I thought everyone knew how little the Yanks think of Pavano at this point. Other players openly mock him in the locker room.

Moose is not the 3 guy. In fact if Joba starts in the rotation, Moose will be the 5 guy.

The Yankee braintrust seem to be listing them as Wang, Pettitte, Hughes or Chamberlain and then Moose. Kennedy rounding out to 6th but many think he might already be better than Moose.

The talk has been about trying to keep Chamberlain’s and the other kids innings on the low side. This is where the mix and match 6 starters in coming from.

Do a Google news search on Joba Chamberlain and you will see what I am babbling about.

Jim

62

I’m with you on Pavano and am aware of their low opinion of him, but if he were healthy I don’t see them paying him 10+ million and not sending him out there to see if can produce anything, unless the other five were all doing well, and I can’t imagine anyone trading for him :slight_smile:

63

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
This statement has been repeated so often, by so many fans and writers, that it’s become a meme, but I reject it as counterfactual. The Yankees success of the last 12 years - a period which encompasses their four World Series wins - has been built about equally on core home-grown talent and on trades and free-agent signings.
[/quote]

Yes, trades and free-agent signings were also important ingredients – they always are. But the fact remains that many key players, particularly the “core” of players who were there for the entire ten year run, were home-grown, to a degree that I defy you to find on any other team in the Free Agency Era.

You listed the following key free agent signings or veteran trades: Paul O’Neill, Wade Boggs, Tino Martinez, David Cone, John Wetteland, Chuck Knoblauch, Roger Clemens, and David Justice. All played critical roles for one or more teams, but none of them were on the team for the entire run, if you consider the run as “eleven division titles and thirteen consecutive years of playoff appearances” (1995-2007) and not just World Series wins.

In contrast, Jeter, Posada, Pettite and Mariano Rivera have all been on the roster since 1996, and all have been multiple time All-Stars. Jeter and Rivera are almost certain HOFers, and the credentials for Posada and Pettite aren’t terrible either. And let’s not forget Bernie Williams, who was there for all but the last year of the period under discussion, and is also a career multiple-time All-Star/Gold Glove outfielder (though I don’t think of him as HOF material myself).

If you look around other teams in baseball, that track record – five elite players out of the same farm system in the past 12 years – is very hard to match. And the Yankees are unique in having had the funding to keep them all, unlike the A’s, Twins, Marlins or Expos.

So if I were a Yankees fan, given that the payroll is already at 230MM and the roster weighting to the above-30 age range, I would certainly be inclined to believe the GM that the pieces for the next dynasty are on tap, and that the team’s talent evaluators have the ability to discern the wheat from the chaff with a fairly good level of precision.

Note the prospects (not counting veterans) that the Yankees gave up in trades for those key acquisitions you mentioned: Sterling Hitchcock, Russ Davis, Fernando Seguignol, Eric Milton, Danny Mota, Cristian Guzman, Brian Buchanan, Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd, Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, Zach Day.

Looking back, not exactly a list of future All-Stars like the ones they held on to, eh? Hitchcock and Milton have been serviceable, and Guzman had a good year or two in the majors, but that’s really about it. Graeme Lloyd became a decent lefty specialist reliever for a while, during which time the Yankees simply went and got him back.

(Jeez, I’d better stop writing this essay now, or I might find myself falling to the Dark Side. Time to give a rub my Mr. Met bobblehead. And no, that’s not a euphemism!)

Contrast that with the Mets, who have not really produced any notable players out of their farm system. Historically, it seems the Mets’ best strategy is to hype and dump, it’s paid off in gold before.

64

[QUOTE=robardin]
Contrast that with the Mets, who have not really produced any notable players out of their farm system. Historically, it seems the Mets’ best strategy is to hype and dump, it’s paid off in gold before.
[/QUOTE]

Hey! Didn’t the Mets produce Nolan Ryan? Jeff Kent? Some guy named Doc?

I know…it’s been a while. But…Current Mets who are home grown include David Wright, Jose Reyes, John Maine, Aaron Heilman & Joe Smith . Not the murderer’s row of the core Yankees, but not bad either. That being said, I mostly agree with you. I’m also glad Santana didn’t come down to trading Reyes. Not long ago, Dontrelle Willis could have been had for Wright…another non-trade I’m very happy with.

Actually, I think John Maine came over from Baltimore. But he was a minor league throw-in in that deal.

65

It’s hard to call Maine a “throw-in” – he was one of two pitchers in the deal. The other was Jorge Julio, who at the time wasn’t particularly great shakes (the Mets were smart enough to trade him for El Duque a few months later). But they wanted to dump Anna Benson ;), so picked up a couple of promising pitchers and hoped for the best.

But you’re right that the team tended to trade instead of using homegrown. They have produced some good players who spent long portions of their careers in Queens – Seaver, Koosman, Ed Kranepool, Lee Mazzilli, Bud Harrelson, Jon Matlack, Darrel Strawberry, Doc Gooden. (Of course, only Seaver was superstar quality for his entire career.) But the team has consistently traded away prospects for veterans over the years. I used to be able to go to every team’s roster and find a former Met who was playing, and usually a team of such players was better than the team playing in Shea.

66

[QUOTE=AndyPolley]
Hey! Didn’t the Mets produce Nolan Ryan? Jeff Kent? Some guy named Doc?
[/quote]

Yeah, I was focusing mainly on players from the last 10 years. Jeff Kent did not come up with the Mets but with the Blue Jays, for who he debuted in 1992. The Mets made what could be thought of as an even dumber move than trading away Kent as a prospect, by trading FOR him in his rookie year while giving up a top pitcher still in his prime (David Cone), then trading him AND Jose Vizcaino (a useful utility infielder) a few years later for Carlos Baerga. Brrrr.

Of course in those mid-90s years, the Mets could hardly do anything right. What with Kent being considered a clubhouse cancer and Cone getting hit in the tabloids with weird stories of public masturbation, it was almost a case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

Let’s hope we can see these talents grow to become career mainstays with the Mets. As for Wright being trade bait earlier on, consider this: in the Robbie Alomar trade, the Indians had their pick of Mets’ blue chip prospects, and took Alex Escobar over Jose Reyes. Imagine if they’d decided they wanted the infielder to replace Alomar. Whoaaa.

67

[QUOTE=robardin]
Let’s hope we can see these talents grow to become career mainstays with the Mets. As for Wright being trade bait earlier on, consider this: in the Robbie Alomar trade, the Indians had their pick of Mets’ blue chip prospects, and took Alex Escobar over Jose Reyes. Imagine if they’d decided they wanted the infielder to replace Alomar. Whoaaa.
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But back then, Escobar looked like Cooperstown was only a formality. He was the best player in the Mets system by far and the first player anyone wanted from them. Escobar hurt himself in spring training that year and never got back on track.

68

[QUOTE=RealityChuck]
But back then, Escobar looked like Cooperstown was only a formality. He was the best player in the Mets system by far and the first player anyone wanted from them. Escobar hurt himself in spring training that year and never got back on track.
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I know. But it just goes to show what a crapshoot it is to try to cherry-pick prospects from an organization.

I saw in the transactions earlier this week that the Nationals signed him to a contract. He’s still yet to play even half of a full season in the majors at age 29. Poor guy. Has anybody ever “come back” from frequent injuries in their “prime years” to then become a productive, everyday position player starting at the age of 30?

69

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
This statement has been repeated so often, by so many fans and writers, that it’s become a meme, but I reject it as counterfactual. The Yankees success of the last 12 years - a period which encompasses their four World Series wins - has been built about equally on core home-grown talent and on trades and free-agent signings.

Paul O’Neill was acquired by trade for Roberto Kelly in 1992; his OBP in 1996, for the first Yankee WS title, was over .400. O’Neill would play and contribute to all four WS teams.

Wade Boggs, signed as a “big-name free agent,” had an OBP of .389 for that 1996 team.

Tino Martinez, first baseman, was acquired with Jeff Nelson (outstanding set-up man) on December 7, 1995, for prospects Sterling Hitchcock and top prospect Russ Davis. He then played first base for every Yankees WS team, drove in more than 100 runs in every year but one for 7 consecutive years, and finished second in the voting for MVP in 1997.

David Cone, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays midseason 1995 for two prospects and a retread.

John Wetteland, acquired from the Montreal Expos early in 1995 for hitting prospect Fernando Seguignol (considered a really good prospect at the time) and cash.

Chuck Knoblauch, acquired from the Minnesota Twins for pitching prospects Eric Milton and Danny Mota, infield prospect Cristian Guzman, and outfield prospect Brian Buchanan. Got on base at a .393 clip and scored 120 runs for the Yankees in 1998.

Roger “Needles in the Butt” Clemens, acquired for David Wells, infield prospect Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd in 1999.

David Justice - this one is pretty classic - acquired midseason from the Cleveland Indians for three players, all considered decent to excellent prospects at the time: Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, and Zach Day. Went on to slug .585 for New York in their final World Series season.

Sure, the Yankees built around a strong home-grown core in Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, et al, but those trades described above were essential as well. Many of the guys traded away in those deals were prospects similar to Cabrera or Ian Kennedy. Jake Westbrook had been a first round pick, and Zach Day was going to be a top pitcher. Eric Milton was a top-flight prospect who the Yankees themselves had drafted in the first round two years before they traded him. But if the Yankees had exercised an overabundance of caution in these situations as they did in the Santana situation - if they had never traded for O’Neill, Martinez, Knoblauch, Justice, Wetteland - you can bet their dominance would have been abbreviated or would never have happened.

That’s why I don’t understand this trade. Phil Hughes might be the next Johan Santana, or he might be the next Todd Van Poppel. Johana Santana is Johan Santana, and the man is still on the good side of 30.
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Bolding mine.
Which is why you always trade prospects for proven aces.

70

[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]
The last thing I heard on Pavano was he was “ahead of schedule” and could be ready by June- if that’s no longer the case, my bad.

To me Wang is the only sure thing, and a team like the Yanks usually has four or five studs in the rotation, or at least guys they think are studs. And they usually don’t have as their third starter a 40 year old coming off a season with an ERA over 5.
[/QUOTE]

You should ask Carl yourself.

71

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
DoWang & Pettitte are solid 1-2.
[/QUOTE]

Boy, you may be in for an unpleasant season. Pettite’s old, and if Wang continues to be successful without striking out five guys per nine innings he’ll be the first starting pitcher in my lifetime to do it.

72

It Pettite were right handed, you’d (What Exit?! )be saying that he’s at the clear downside of his career.
Especially since he doesn’t have the drugs anymore. I expect a bad year from him.

73

[QUOTE=robardin]
I saw in the transactions earlier this week that the Nationals signed him to a contract. He’s still yet to play even half of a full season in the majors at age 29. Poor guy. Has anybody ever “come back” from frequent injuries in their “prime years” to then become a productive, everyday position player starting at the age of 30?
[/QUOTE]
Obviously, not many. Paul Wilson had arm troubles and dropped to the minors (with only a handful of appearances) until he finally made it back at age 28.

But Santana has signed, so the deal is complete. I’m looking forward to 2008. :slight_smile:

74

So it looks like the final deal was six years, $137.5M. The Mets can afford it, but this was a steep price. I guess the argument is that he is clearly worth more than Zito.

[QUOTE=RickJay]
Boy, you may be in for an unpleasant season. Pettite’s old, and if Wang continues to be successful without striking out five guys per nine innings he’ll be the first starting pitcher in my lifetime to do it.
[/QUOTE]

Well you did say basically the same thing before last season about Wang, I will still take the wait and see approach. I think his Ks will continue to slowly climb and with back-to-back 19 wins season, I might as well expect another very good season. You might well be right or he may buck the trend and also continue to improve as a pitcher bringing up his strikeouts.

Pettitte pitch pretty darn well last year. The bullpen wasted several very good efforts by him and his final record was not too bad. I am guilty of believing Hughes is going to have a very good season this year in addition.

[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever]
It Pettite were right handed, you’d (What Exit?! )be saying that he’s at the clear downside of his career.

Especially since he doesn’t have the drugs anymore. I expect a bad year from him.
[/QUOTE]

Do you really think he was using any of the drugs last season? Yes, he is on the downside of his career, but I think he has one more good year. He pitch well last year.

Jim

75

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
Well you did say basically the same thing before last season about Wang, I will still take the wait and see approach. I think his Ks will continue to slowly climb and with back-to-back 19 wins season
[/QUOTE]

Aw, c’mon, W.E., you know as well as I do that the 19 wins are because he pitches for the best offense in baseball, not because he’s an elite pitcher. Not that he pitched badly - his ERA was +121, which is really good, but it wasn’t even close to the league leaders. The wins have a lot to do with pitching for a six-run-a-game offense.

I’m a lot happier with the Blue Jay pitching/defense combo than you should be with New York’s, as evidenced by the numbers. (I’m not sure how much of the difference in 2007 was actually pitching, and how much was defense; there was a large difference in DER.) The Yankees won in 2007 for one big reason: Hitting. That will be their advantage in 2008, too, and if the pitching is to get better it’ll have to be the youth, where there are lots of prospects.

76

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
So it looks like the final deal was six years, $137.5M. The Mets can afford it, but this was a steep price. I guess the argument is that he is clearly worth more than Zito.
Well you did say basically the same thing before last season about Wang, I will still take the wait and see approach. I think his Ks will continue to slowly climb and with back-to-back 19 wins season, I might as well expect another very good season. You might well be right or he may buck the trend and also continue to improve as a pitcher bringing up his strikeouts.

Pettitte pitch pretty darn well last year. The bullpen wasted several very good efforts by him and his final record was not too bad. I am guilty of believing Hughes is going to have a very good season this year in addition.

Do you really think he was using any of the drugs last season? Yes, he is on the downside of his career, but I think he has one more good year. He pitch well last year.

Jim
[/QUOTE]

To be perfectly frank, I have no clue. He said he did take them at one time, and unfortunately, I still think he’s on them until it’s proven otherwise. Let’s see how this year plays out.

Pettite isn’t great, but he’s not bad. He’s above average, but not by much. He’s left-handed and he pitches for the Yankees. That’s worth a fistful of wins right there.

77

And now that the contact is signed…

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

and also:

HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

I am such a happy fan this morning. This is such a great trade from the fan’s perspective, basically no matter how it works out.

I mean, it’s great from a baseball perspective, of course. Barring injury, Santana probably adds 3-4 expected wins over what the Mets got from Tom Glavine last year, which would have been enough to make the playoffs. He’s probably worth 6 wins over whatever excruciating stiff they would have started in his place had they not made the move. Since they finished only a game out last year, they haven’t gotten significantly worse in any other aspect, and the Phillies have gotten marginally worse overall, I think the Mets have to be considered the favorite in the NL East going into the season.

But you know, even beyond the baseball, it’s a really great thing for this fanbase. I can’t overstate how painful it was watching the Mets choke and die in September last year. The only meaningful transaction they managed before this one was trading Lastings Milledge, who they told us for five years was a can’t-miss top prospect, for a backup catcher and fourth outfielder. Going into the season with the exact group of guys responsible for the collapse last year would have been depressing; Mets’ fans have been mostly lifeless the entire offseason for that reason.

This trade gives the fans a bit of life, because even if the team falls short, we’ll get to watch the best pitcher in baseball work out of a strong pitcher’s park maybe 20 times this season. It’s something about which to get excited just as baseball fans, never mind as Mets fans.

78

[QUOTE=RickJay]
Aw, c’mon, W.E., you know as well as I do that the 19 wins are because he pitches for the best offense in baseball, not because he’s an elite pitcher. Not that he pitched badly - his ERA was +121, which is really good, but it wasn’t even close to the league leaders. The wins have a lot to do with pitching for a six-run-a-game offense.

I’m a lot happier with the Blue Jay pitching/defense combo than you should be with New York’s, as evidenced by the numbers. (I’m not sure how much of the difference in 2007 was actually pitching, and how much was defense; there was a large difference in DER.) The Yankees won in 2007 for one big reason: Hitting. That will be their advantage in 2008, too, and if the pitching is to get better it’ll have to be the youth, where there are lots of prospects.
[/QUOTE]

Don’t worry, I have seen nothing that shows Wang is an ace, but I think he and Pettitte are good for another 32 wins together. They got 34 last year. Many if not most Yankee fans are hoping it is Hughes and Chamberlain that step up to be the Ace(s) and the post season pitchers.

Believe it or not, I am not panicked by the idea the Yanks might fail to make the playoffs this year. I said it last year and I’ll say it this year. The Yanks are in the middle of a rebuilding phase and we are probably the only team that can go through a rebuilding phase and still compete for a playoff spot.

We need to get this team younger and cheaper. I think Cashman is the right GM to make this happen and it gets easier with “The Boss” retired. I think Joe G is the perfect manager to lead the Yanks into this new phase. After 3 more years, it is very likely that Jeter will be the only Yankee left of the 90’s dynasty. If Cashman does it right, there will be a fresh core around him of guys from the farm and a few key free agents and a few key trades and of course A-Rod who will hopefully be seriously assaulting the Home Run chart at that point.

Ideally, Wang will end up the solid 3 pitcher in the rotation behind Hughes and Chamberlain or *Fill in the Blank * prospect we haven’t really seen yet.
I am sure there will be one big name, over prices Free agent or trade pitcher in the mix too.

Or the Yanks could continue the formula of bringing over priced aging players that don’t actually play defense well or cannot pitch anymore or have no track record of being able to perform under pressure. (Anyone want Farnsworth? Cashman’s worst free agent signing?)

Jim

79

Put me on record for saying that Chamberlain will NOT be the ace.

80

[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever]
Put me on record for saying that Chamberlain will NOT be the ace.
[/QUOTE]

Cool, I hope it is as accurate as your complaints about a certain 4th year quarterback.