John's Election Challenge 2000

In My Humble Opinion
1

Okay, folks. Time to reward those who are truly tuned in to the national pulse; or at the very least who are damned lucky.
Here’s the deal. I’ll ask you to make two predictions on the upcoming elections. The person who comes closest to predicting the correct outcome for each question wins, and I will send them a $20 gift certificate from Best Buy. That’s $40 total in gift certificates up for grabs.

To enter, post in this thread with your predictions. Keep in mind that if you wish the prize, you will need to send me your address for me to mail the Gift Certificates to. You can still enter for the fun of beating everyone else, but if you can’t receive the prize, I’ll send it to the runner-up.

No predictions will be allowed after 9/1/00. You may enter as many times as you wish, but I’ll only consider your latest entry in determining the winner. Contest not guaranteed to provide happiness or a sense of accomplishment. Thread location may vary. Offer void in some states of conciousness.
Question 1: Who will win the Electoral College, and with how many votes?
Question 1 tie-breaker: What percentage of the popular vote (to the nearest full percent) will the winner receive?

Notes: In order to keep the contest from dragging out from here to January, it will be assumed that every state except Maine will cast their full electoral votes for the candidate which wins that state. The winner of this question will be the person who predicted the correct election winner with the amount of votes closest to the true number.

Question 2: Who will control the Senate, with how many votes, and who will control the House, with how many votes?
Question 2 tie-breaker: What percentage of the popular vote (to the nearest full percent) will Hillary Clinton recieve in her Senate run?

Notes: In Question 2, I am weighting Senate votes by 4 when compared to House votes; that is, if you’re off by 2 Senate votes and 12 House votes, you’re off by a total of 20 (4*2 + 12). The person who is closest to correct (that is, off by the least total weighted votes) wins.

Also, in the interest of timeliness, should Lieberman win his re-election bid for the Senate and be elected Vice-President, it will be assumed that his seat will be filled by a Republican appointed by the Republican Governor of Connecticut. I won’t wait around for special-election results.

Sample entry (and, specifically, my entry):

  1. Bush, 289 electoral votes.
    1 tb. 52%

  2. Senate: Republicans, 53 seats.
    House: Democrats, 228 seats.
    2 tb. 46%

2

**

1: Albert Gore, with 329 votes.
1 tie breaker: 50.5%

**

2: The Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans, with 52 seats (losing two to the Democrats). The House will be controlled narrowly by the Democrats, who will have 217 seats, with 216 Republicans and 2 Independents.

2 tie-breaker: Hillary Clinton will receive 53% of the popular vote in her Senate run.

Regards,
Joseph

3

I am always up for a challenge, especially with wonderful prizes up for grabs. I’ll be echoing John, but I still might as well try.

  1. Bush, 295
    Tiebreaker - 51.2%

  2. Repubs retain the Senate with 55 members. Demos gain the House with 219 votes (and understand my deep searing pain at picturing Dick Gephardt with a gavel.)
    Tiebreaker - 44%

4

  1. Gore, 310
    1tb. 48%

  2. Senate: Republicans, 53. House: Democrats: 227
    2tb. Hillary, 53.

5
  1. Gore 297; 49%
  2. Republicans 53; Democrats 218; 55%
6

  1. Gore, 296
    1tb. 45.5%

  2. Senate: Republicans, 51. House: Democrats: 221
    2tb. Hillary, 54%.

7

With my 2000th post, I predict the following:

  1. Gore, 321 EC votes, 54% popular vote

  2. Senate: tie ballgame at 50-50, with VP Leiberman giving control to the Democrats!
    House: Dems, 224 Reps.
    Hillary: 52%.

8

  1. Bush, 304 electoral votes
    tb 49.4% popular vote

    1. Republicans 51 Senate seats
      Republicans 221 House seats

      Hillary Clinton 48.5% of the vote

9

Bush, 276 electoral votes

48 percent of the vote

Republicans retain control of both the Senate (53)

and House (218)

Hilary gets 46 percent of vote (and loses, thank GaWd)

10

  1. Nader 189 votes
    23% of popular vote

  2. Demos senate (52)
    Demos house (218)

Hillary? 49%

11
  1. Gore, 290 electoral votes
    1)tb 52%

2)Senate; Repubs 56 seats
2) House ; Demos 240 seats

These are WAGs, of course.

12

  1. Gore 278 votes

  2. 52.5%

  3. Republicans 52 seats

  4. 58%

13

spooje- you’re missing your tie-breaker vote on question 2.

connor- you’re missing your vote on who controls the House with however many votes.

14

House: Dems w/231

15

I’d like to change my tiebreaker #1 from 45.5% to 48%

16

Q1–Gore wins 334 electoral votes

TB1–Gore wins 48% of the popular vote

Q2–Reps control the Senate with 54 seats
Dems control the House with 225 seats

TB2–Hillary gets 51% in NY Senate race

17

FWIW, an AP/Washington Post story I saw this weekend canvassed seven US political science professors at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, asking for their election picks.

“All seven forecast a Gore victory over Republican nominee George W. Bush, although the vice-president’s projected share of the vote in a two-man contest varied from a low of 52.8 per cent to a high of 60.3 per cent.”

The economy and incumbency, they figure, will help Gore.

18

And as John Corrado mentioned in his OP, he’s not taking any new wagers after September 1.

19

The election is still too close to call; but I thought I’d bring this thread back up anyways. Partially to keep it nearby so I can award the prizes; partially to point out what fools so many of us (including me- I thought Bush would get 52% of the vote! I thought Hillary would lose!) were in our expectations three months ago.

20

I dunno … I think I’m looking pretty damn good on the major question.