Remember, a quality con has multiple “outs”. So even if the outcome seems to be dependent on an improbable series of events, that doesn’t mean it was the only anticipated series of events or that success depended on each one of those things happening just right.
I liked this episode. Even with the flashbacks and the name of the bloody episode, it never once struck me that Sawyer was playing everybody.
What did I think made no sense about the way people acted?
First and foremost, there is no WAY that anyone would possibly react to Sawyer’s little “speech” with any kind of calm or acceptance or forgiveness. He didn’t just pull some little prank. He took the most valuable thing they all, collectively, had, stole it, and is trying to blackmail them with it. He completely and utterly betrayed every conceivable trust. He should be anathema. Yet at the end of the episode, he’s just chilling on the beach.
Secondly, since when is Locke so insanely pacifistic that when someone he has no reason to really trust comes running up and telling him, with no evidence at all, that Jack is going to come get a gun, his response is not to:
-Wait and see if this story is true
-Let Jack have a gun
-Reason with Jack
-Go along to try to keep people safe
or anything, but to take all the guns out of the nice safe room with a combination lock and go hide them in the forest, DESPITE KNOWING THAT THERE ARE “OTHERS” WHO ARE OBSERVING THEM CLOSELY AND HAVE UNKOWN SKILLS AND INFORMATION???
It would be one thing if we’d had episodes in which we learned that Locke had turned into a mad pacifist (after the Michael incident, or what have you), or if Jack was obviously about to do something insanely ridiculously stupid, or if Jack was known to be hilariously rash. But moving the guns out of the locker is obviously an idiotic move and a last resort. Furthermore, Locke is all about the tracking and is not stupid. There is no WAY he would do something as important as hiding the guns without being SUPER-careful to make sure he wasn’t being followed by ANYONE.
Sawyer’s actions also make no sense. However scummy he may be, he’s certainly someone who has a strong drive to survive. Witness his actions on the raft. And it’s abundantly clear that the group as a whole is vastly more vulnerable when all its guns are hidden somewhere unsafe where only one person (two, counting Charlie) know how to get at them, rather than locked up in a safe in the only quasi-safe place there is. And, as others have pointed out, his con is ridiculously and preposterously overcomplex, depending on a whole bunch of people to have exactly the correct idiotic reaction in a row. His whole thing will be a waste if (for instance) Locke is smart enough to hide the AMMO but not the guns, or if Charlie doesn’t successfully mug Sun (something that we have no reason to think he’d be able to do), or if any of a number of other very very plausible things happen.
Charlie is the only one who even comes CLOSE to having a reasonable motivation, and even so, he’s always been basically a decent guy. How does he go from being a decent guy who saw weird things, hurt someone he cared about, and felt bad about it; to getting involved in a deliberately criminal plan to put the entire community’s fate in the hands of an untrustworthy asshole?
I sure as hell HOPE that everyone involved is “sick”. Then there’s at least SOME explanation for this idiocy.
That’s my problem with this episode. Locke isn’t acting like he normally does. Charlie, I understand. He wants revenge. Sawyer, I understand somewhat. He’s a manipulative jerk and wants to be the evil Losties Dictator.
But Locke? He’s supposed to be the calm negociator. He’s good at defusing bad situations and keeping everyone from killing each other. Then again, after the Charlie punch-out in the last episode, maybe his personality is changing. Can we count on anyone to stay true to their characters anymore?
Monstre: Sure, Sawyer shouldn’t have been surprised to find his stuff gone, since he wasn’t expected to be coming back. But the thing is, he is back. And he’s a very territorial and selfish man; finding himself stuck back on the damn island, but now with all his stuff gone, was enough to piss him off.
The thing is… it’s a safe. It’s designed against figuring out a way to get around it. It’s not like you can just pick at it with a bobby pin and hope it opens eventually or anything. They would’ve been safe in there.
Don’t agree. I think he’s a selfish asshole who plays the role of a decent guy, and has been portrayed that way fairly consistently. The best evidence is to look at the way he treats Hurley, his supposed best friend, whenever Hurley is trying to tell him something personal or of importance. Sure, he’s nice to Claire, but probably because he needs to establish some sort of family and she probably has an inviting vagina.
WSOP?
Not a radio station per se, but, I think, stands for Weak Signal OPerating. See this. If you do a search on WSOP, be sure you add “-poker” to get anything meaningful.
Like I said, I’m sure it made sense to Locke…not so much to me.
According to MSN’s summation - the radio station was “a Big Band radio station, WXR.”
Actually, I thought Locke’s motivations were most in character. See, I don’t think he’s some kind of mad pacifist. I think he’s all about the control. I don’t think he cares who gets to play with a gun or even if they hurt themselves with a gun. As long as they all have to go to Locke to get them. Last season he was all about being the dispenser of Wisdom and Mysticism and How To Survive On A Desert Island. Now he wants to be the go to guy for Defense and Little Statues Of The Virgin Mary Filled With Heroin.
Where was Eko during the Sawyer speech?
I don’t agree that safes are invulnerable. I can see many of them being openable if you have time and tools. It may take a week, but you’ll get in. Make it hard enough to get in, and a thief can’t get the job done before he gets found out. Just playing devil’s advocate…
WRT the con being dependant on everyone acting a certain way. Let’s not forget that Sawyer was actively managing the con the whole time. Let’s say Kate wants to go tell Locke about Jack and the guns… fine, Locke will still probably move the guns to the woods and Charlie will follow anyway. Or… Sawyer goes with Kate to support her story and make sure Locke goes for the woods. If a conman can do anything, it’s think on his feet.
You definitely have a point, no safe is completely invulnerable, but it takes a little bit of technical knowledge about safes in general, doesn’t it? If we were worried about Sawyer (or anybody else with a criminal {or locksmithy} background) getting the guns, changing the combo might be useless, but Jack doesn’t have a lot of safecracking experience, I’d wager.
Caressing his Jesus-stick! 
And if he doesn’t stop that, he could go blind.
Clarification:
Charlie didn’t intend to hurt Sun; she hurt herself by running into a tree when he let her escape.
No, I’m sure it made sense to the script writers as the only way to facilitate the story.
No…according to Locke. The same guy who was hell bent on opening a hatch to the point of obsession. The same guy who lied to the group about what he was doing with Boone for days and days. The same guy who taught crazyed-out Michael how to shoot. The same guy who held Charlie’s stash and agreed to give it to him if he asked 3 times. The same guy who felt perfectly safe when he was about to be dragged into the depths of Island-hell by a tree crushing black smoke monster.
I’m not saying it makes sense to me, but I can see how it makes sense to Locke. Locke also knows there are vents that lead to the gun locker, and Jack is aware of them. If Jack and 3 like-minded people show up and want to get in, there’s little Locke can do to stop them, even if he changes the combo.
Was it “Bad Twin”?
Woops, I skipped a whole page.
I agree that Locke’s motivations are in character, but I disagree with you about what they are. There’s no reason to ascribe such base motivations to him.
The idea that Locke’s actions are the result of a will to power is at odds with everything we know about his character, as well as what we know about his namesake. It seems clear that Locke’s concern really is the common good. He had every reason to believe that a hastily-armed expedition would backfire. It’s not personal power that Locke wants – it’s civil government. Jack is acting in a “state of nature,” which, from a Lockean point of view, is far from ideal.
Jack’s motivations are similarly true. He’s compelled to play the saviour – it’s his character’s defining quality. He’s well-intentioned, but again and again (before the crash and after) his mere humanity keeps biting him in the ass when his saviour complex leads to unintended consequences.
They’re both good men, they’re just approaching their situation from different angles – and a truly self-interested and wicked man was able to exploit their personal fears and desire to protect the common good to his own advantage.