Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

[Chronos]

No matter what, we do not get a free mislynch from a blocked or otherwise prevented Night kill. If there’s a Vig, a successful kill of Scum does not get us a free mislynch. However, a Vig who accidentally hits a Townie does cost us a mislynch. In other words, whatever number of mislynches we have, we will need a lot of hard work from the power roles to increase it; however, if there’s a Vig and (s)he chooses poorly, they can decrease it more easily than we’d perhaps like.

Please show your work: Near as I can figure, with an odd number of players, a successful Vig hit or Doctor block or the like puts us from dead on mislynch n to 50-50 after mislynch n. Mahaloth has not told us (I don’t think) how a tie is handled, but it seems at least plausible to me that there’s a chance that a tie could go in favor of Town. Unless you know otherwise?