Please show your work: Near as I can figure, with an odd number of players, a successful Vig hit or Doctor block or the like puts us from dead on mislynch n to 50-50 after mislynch n. Mahaloth has not told us (I don’t think) how a tie is handled, but it seems at least plausible to me that there’s a chance that a tie could go in favor of Town. Unless you know otherwise?
Hilarious! Well summed, sir. 
Nice summation, storyteller. Seeing it laid out like that also gives us some indication of what power roles would be, if they had a prominent role in this game (I think Mahaloth said they wouldn’t). One, possible two doctors (one of whom is Other), maybe a traitor role of some sort (again, possibly both for town and scum, based n Michael and Juliet), maybe a Vig who runs off half-cocked after everyone tells them to stay with the camp (Kate), and, based on Mikhail and Richard, a scum who’s hard to kill (immune to a NK by Vig maybe? I doubt immune to lynch.)
NETA: Of course, that’s all assuming that the names mean anything other than generic markers for Survivors and Others.
In every game of Mafia I’ve ever played or moderated, the game ends when there are an equal number of Scum vs. Town. Assuming one Doc-block or Vig-hit, our last mislynch would put us at X Scum and X+1 Town. Following that Night’s kill, we’d be tied at Dawn and lose.
Unless you know differently?
Wow. Thanks for the character info Storyteller0910. I’m another one of the Lost illiterate, so this is useful.
Going back to a topic from earlier today, I’m interested in hearing more discussion about the voting permutations I’ve seen suggested. It seems like it could be helpful, but I don’t feel I know enough about it to contribute meaningfully either way. Also, (throwing it out there just to see if it sinks or swims) would it in any way be valuable to list with your vote the person you’re least likely to vote for on a particular day?
I’ve always seem it to be “when the Scum controls the vote”, or “when over half of the remaining players are Scum”, or “when Scum outnumbers Town”. None of those is met with equal numbers. But to be official about it,
What precisely is the Scum win condition in this game?
I don’t follow. Are you calling someone scum here? Who?
The Others win when they control the vote.
Thanks, Story, that saves us LOST neophytes a hell of a lot of wiki surfing when names come out.
Otherwise: It’s Day One, and it’s going to be happening over a weekend. Lynch the Lurker is DEFINITELY a bad idea now. (On that note, I’m hiking and won’t be back until late Sunday or Monday morning.)
Um, no. I was just commending storyteller on his fun Lost character summary.
This seems to me like a rather transparent attempt to pretend to have no knowledge of the scum.
Vote Chronos
No, it was a transparent attempt to find out which interpretation was correct, mine or storyteller’s. And it appears that my interpretation was in fact correct, so what I was displaying was hardly a lack of knowledge of Scum. Why does this make me more suspicious than storyteller?
Pedescribe, that’s a pretty big reach. I’ve seen games where equal Scum and Town alive at Dawn is a scum win, since it’s guaranteed that scum win eventually in that situation unless there is a living doc or other special power.
Plus, it’s a relevant question for him to ask, since he was being questioned on his math.
FOS Pedescribe
**Bleached. **
Wait. Wait.
Ok. :eek:
Pede is voting for Chronos?
Pede, you just moderated a game where Chronos did the exact same song and dance…
Interesting.
I’m not going to make the same mistake I made Crimson, and vote someone just on their play style.
Yet, I can’t ignore this either.
FOS?
OK, I am caught up. Couple things:
Ranking votes: I agree that this gives scum an easy way to manipulate bandwagons. Do not want.
Name claim: (Keep in mind I am a n00b.) This only works if the names are aligned (which Mahaloth has confirmed), and we know which is which (per storyteller’s detailed posts). The main risk is that the “Jack” character (doctor) is exposed (if he exists). What if we ask Jack to false-claim a vanilla survivor name? Their risk then becomes the same as a scum false claim, only it’s 3-5 of them and one of us (albeit a powerful us). If x people false claim, we are assured anywhere between x and x-1 scum, and possibly our own doc. We get a 50/50 shot at each scum, costing us a possible mislynch for each one, but that works in our favour, no? (1+1 trade, worst case?) Further, if the doc can self-protect, the scum may lose the advantage of a NK – if they gamble and lose, they’ve wasted a night action and we’ve identified our doc. Still a gamble even if the doc can’t self-protect, because the scum don’t know that.
I am not experienced enough to understand what a verified town doc means to the game mechanics. Seems kind of WIFOM: if the doc self-protects each night, the scum can’t NK them, so they start on other townies, then the doc starts protecting others, then the scum might hit the doc, who might self-protect…, etc.
Chronos, you are a rocket scientist: can you run an analysis like you did in The Crimson Glyph? For x scum, y townies, z names, and j town-aligned names, assume a random claim order, random scum (false) name selection, and random town doc (false) name selection. What are the odds our doc false-claims, and the odds we get k scum false-claims? At first glance it seems that the odds of the latter are 3-5 times the odds of the former, and only if a Jack-Doctor exists. If they don’t, absent any other obvious name correlation, it’s all scum.
If Chronos can do that, one or more folks would need to check his work in case he is scum.
I do not know enough to weigh what an outed doc is worth in terms of potential scum lynches, but plenty of folks here do.
Hmm. Point taken.
Unvote Chronos
pedescribe, that was a little odd. Mostly because it was a little n00bish - either a poor attempt for Scum to start a bandwagon, or an overeager Townie hunting desperately for a Scum tell.
I wont belabour the point esp. since you retracted the vote, and considering that on Day 1 votes get thrown around based on very little. Still, I’m putting it out there that I found that to be strange, though not necessarily Scummy.
pedescribe’s vote definitely looked like a big reach to me, but he withdrew it with Chronos’ explanation, and this is Day One, so…meh.