Looking at this from a pairing standpoint, i think it’s either cardinal and someone or jimmy and diver. If cardinal’s mafia I don’t have anything solid to say about which of scuba or jimmy is the partner (I, of course, am as pure as driven snow).
I was hoping cardinal would pop in to defend himself, but i seem to remember that he plays evenings. Since we’re probably at lynch or lose, I want to sit on my vote until i can hear him out.
Thinking about it some more, if we’re in the Jimmy/Diver scenario, we literally can’t lose. Suppose we’re in that scenario. ToDay, we lynch someone. If that someone is Jimmy, we win, game over. If that someone is anyone else at all, then they come up Town, and we don’t lose yet. The fact that we don’t lose is evidence that Diver must have been Scum after all, and since Jimmy vouched for him, it’s in turn evidence that Jimmy is Scum, and whoever the last two Townies are would naturally vote for him.
Unfortunately, we’re not in that scenario. We can lose. If someone would like to present a case for why me and Diver seem like we could have possibly been the two scum in cahoots I’d be glad to discuss it.
There’s two scum out there, not one, and that one isn’t me.
Anyway, it appears that we all agree that in any scenario where I’m scum, we can lynch me later. So at least there’s that.
Does anyone have a comment on whether they think Telcontar accepting my say-so about Diver might indicate that Telcontar already knew Diver was town?
I have a problem right now in that I don’t really feel like cardinal_fang has played a very scummy game. Off the top of my head, I might go so far as to say I think he’s played the least scummy, especially recently (that includes me; because I act like an idiot sometimes). I am accepting Chronos’ bona fides as a matter of faith, but in terms of having to vote just on feeling… I don’t see it with fang. I’m OK with that to some extent, since everybody at this point is in some kind of gray area, but I’d like to try to feel a little more solid about it. What I think is very important from town’s perspective, unfortunately, because right now I’m the power role – I know to a certainty that Diver was town. I know that and the two scum know that. Since that’s the case, I think my vote is going to end up pretty important, and right now, I don’t feel much conviction toward a fang vote. I think right this second I’d lean Telcontar, then Scuba.
I don’t think there’s any need to make such a case, other than to acknowledge its theoretical possibility. If it is the case, then we’ll have very strong evidence for it toNight, but toDay, we don’t need to worry about it.
And for the record, my vote on cardinal is not based on my feeling… Frankly, I don’t trust my own hunches, and only provided them last page because someone asked for them. My vote on cardinal is because most of the pairings I consider plausible include him, and one of the two pairings that doesn’t involve him still leads to us winning after lynching him. Now, if you want to put together a case against Telcontar or Scuba, then I hope whoever’s alive toMorrow will take a good look at it, but for toDay, I think that cardinal is our best bet.
Cardinal doesn’t seem to have popped up. I think I’ll cast my vote now and leave open the possibility to reconsider based on what he says.
Vote cardinal
Jimmy, look at it this way. Assuming you’re telling the truth about diver and that you yourself aren’t mafia, two out of scuba, myself, and cardinal must be mafia. Which two do you think it is? Scuba and myself? that is implausible based on 2-3 days ago. Me and cardinal? it’s possible, but then a cardinal lynch is safe.
Jimmy, what do you think of scuba’s analysis? he says that, if you were scum, you would be motivated to claim that diver was scum regardless of his actual alignment. Do you agree?
I won’t have time to post anything substantive tonight, but I’ll wade in over the next day or two.
I see I have my work cut out for me, but I am going to do my level best because if we are indeed at LyLo and I am lynched, we lose. If it’s because I fell out of a computer analysis, then, well, so be it, but I don’t want it to be because I’m a bad player.
I can’t say I understand the pairings business at first glance but will look deeper tomorrow.
Jimmy, you’ve stood up for cardinal a fair bit now (insisting that we shouldn’t assume that at least one of you is Scum yesterDay and saying that he’s played the most pro-Town game toDay, off the top of my head). Would you care to give a detailed case why you think he’s Town?
That’s a bit of a strange way to approach gameplay, and no, not really; I mean, I don’t have a detailed case why I think he’s town. If I had one of those I’d have said something about it. What I have is a lack of a detailed case why I think he’s scum, same as I have for everyone else except you and dead people, and for the dead people I already know, and for you I do have a detailed case for why you’re town.
And, again, other than the scum, I’m the only one who knows that if I vote cardinal_fang and get it wrong, the game is over. Which is why I asked to be convinced of the case against him. It puts me in a strange place that you’ve taken my hesitation to stake the outcome of the entire game on fang being scum as a defense of fang. First all I was doing was whining about your system being unfair; now it turns out that what I was really doing was defending cardinal_fang.
Telcontar, that’s a reasonable enough argument. I suppose that ultimately that analysis is what it’s going to boil down to; I have plenty of time to end up making that decision in the end if it does. It can’t be you and Scuba, you’re saying, because you tried to get him lynched a couple of days ago, right?
Chronos, if I can get you to set aside your suspicion about me for just one second, and put yourself in my shoes: right now, there are three votes on fang. One of them, at least, if you have the privileged perspective that I have, you know to a certainty is a scum vote. Would you be inclined to conclude that that’s probably just the other scum protecting himself for the endgame scenario?
Because (still in my head here) it occurs to me that the scum can afford to be bold – they could, at least theoretically, jump right out and both vote along with one town vote, and that’s night-night for us. Do you see what my concern is there? Again, if you can just pretend for a second that I’m town, and tell me what you think (because I’m trusting you even if you don’t me)?
There’s plenty of time here and I don’t see the danger of thinking out loud, so that’s what I’m doing.
OK, then, put it this way. From your point of view (assuming you’re Town), you know there are two Scum left, and there are only three (or maybe four, counting me) people you’re unsure of. If you’re objecting to cardinal’s lynch, then that must mean you think that the two Scum are Telcontar and Scuba (or possibly one of those two and me). Would you care to make a case against Telcontar and Scuba? Or possibly a case against me?
I’m a bit pressed for time but I think at this point I might as well stop pretending there’s some big events going on that are worth waiting around for. If cardinal is going to show up and make a case I’ll revisit it then.
My thinking is this: no, Chronos, I don’t have a great case for that pair as the scum, any more than I have a great case for anything at this point. I’m going to
vote cardinal_fang
because whatever recalcitrance I have is overcome by 1. the fact that I don’t have much else to work with and 2. the fact that if I put a vote out there for someone else, and they turn out to be town, that one vote is all the scum need to ensure a win if they switch late.
Just checking in from vacation. Yeah, this Day is defintely too long, but I really want to be around for the end of it. I appreciate your understanding and I will be considerably shortening the Day/Night cycle when I get back.