…And that summary has already helped someone. On looking it over, it was paulwhoisaghost, who was replaced by Scuba_Ben, who suggested that everyone say whether their name matched their alignment. We’ve already seen that the Scum were disinclined to provide this information; neither of the two Scum we’ve nabbed so far did. This suggests to me that paul, who suggested the idea, is likely to be Town, and therefore also Scuba.
Great work on assembling those summaries. Should be really helpful if/when we go hunting Tomorrow.
I’m not sure how much weight to put on paul’s request, high level theorizing is often a good way for scum to appear helpful without actually being so, though it is a data point. Also, in the post asking for name alignment matches, paul opposes a name claim.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11234338&postcount=116
Speaking of name-alignment matches, however, there is allwalker’s list:
storyteller
BillMC (later diver)
Zeriel
ShadowFacts
Jimmy Chitwood
Ichini (then deceased)
It’s a suggestive list, in retrospect. Might be why allwalker died. Also note that storyteller didn’t say he matched, which makes sense given that his character was highly ambiguous.
I’m not sure what to make of scuba’s posts from early day two. Back to back in your summary (separated by more fluff in thread) he votes first for shadow and then for zeriel:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11264947&postcount=644
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11265791&postcount=658
I’m torn between consider this great scum hunting and too great scum hunting, especially since he didn’t stay long on those cases. Still, i think i’m leaning scuba town, jimmy less so.
Yes, but don’t they usually stick to theory that doesn’t turn out to actually be all that useful? I just find it unlikely that a Scum would suggest that everyone do something, that at least half the scum then proceed to not do.
Just tossing out the suggestion. I’ve never been scum in an online game so I’m not sure how much organization and coherence to expect from them.
Hi guys. I was away for the (long) weekend (long for me). I’ll be plugged in from now 'til end of day.
Start things off with a WoW on Telcontar.
[post=11233092]62[/post] Night 0.
[post=11233212]68[/post] PM received.
[post=11233395]75[/post] Concurs that LtL is not a great idea.
[post=11233879]94[/post] Response to Nanook’s original name claim idea asking for a canon summary.
[post=11234139]107[/post] Response to Fiend indicating that while skeptical of name-claim, discussion is a good thing.
[post=11234760]136[/post] Smudges IP for phrasing, not concerned with Meeko.
[post=11234777]138[/post] Asks Meeko for clarification re: fishing.
[post=11235366]154[/post] Risk/benefit analysis of name-claim; indicates key factor is cast size.
[post=11235932]160[/post] Content-free; indicates he is not hung-up about editing.
[post=11237120]175[/post] Skeptical of vote-ranking, askd for further input from others.
[post=11237126]176[/post] Content-free.
[post=11237389]184[/post] Day 1.
[post=11237497]187[/post] Welcomes storyteller, jokes that he is scum.
[post=11240676]223[/post] Responds to my post re: name-claim; against idea (“…line [town power roles] all up for the slaughter.” Does not address power role false-claim idea, moves on to “traditional” scum-hunting.
[post=11240736]225[/post] Questions pede’s OMGUS vote against Meeko.
[post=11241936]255[/post] Joke’s about pede’s third vote (non-)scum-tell comment. Asks Jimmy why he voted for pede.
[post=11242987]272[/post] Votes pede for being reactive.
[post=11243281]279[/post] Posts like to third vote wiki article.
[post=11243298]283[/post] Content-free.
[post=11244113]296[/post] Laughs at Chronos’s comment and the Jimmy/Meeko scrap.
[post=11245128]331[/post] Comments on Meeko and thinks he’s town. Respons to Nanook’s post that the name-claim is very pro-town. Agrees, but wants to wait a day or two to learn more.
[post=11245412]341[/post] Claims name/alignment match.
[post=11246398]365[/post] Concurs that it is too late in the Day to implement name-claim. Not convinced to move vote from pede to Meeko.
[post=11246461]370[/post] Mahaloth closes name-claim hole.
[post=11246722]381[/post] Comes out against name-claim based on aliases.
[post=11246978]385[/post] Shadow casts one-off against Telcontar.
[post=11247053]388[/post] Responds to Shadow (“fair enough”). Questions timing of mafia’s knowledge of aliases.
[post=11248256]403[/post] Unvotes pede, votes Fiend based on vociferous opposition to name-claim. Indicates he slowly realized how powerful name-claim was prior to aliases.
[post=11248592]414[/post] Applauds Meeko’s case agaings BillMC/Diver, but find Fiend more suspicious. Does not worry about storyteller’s post count.
[post=11249697]441[/post] Cautions against one-off votes and tiebreakers.
[post=11249758]443[/post] Responds to Jimmy’s assertions that tiebreakers actually give plenty of information (somewhat agrees).
[post=11250035]447[/post] Cautions against EOD ties, and calls out non-voters (with post counts).
[post=11250433]460[/post] Apologises to Oredigger for implicating him on non-vote. Asks for vote count.
[post=11250906]466[/post] Responds to my low-post defense and defends my playstyle (thanks!).
[post=11251969]485[/post] Shadow unvotes Telcontar and vote Ichini.
[post=11252072]496[/post] Questions storyteller and Jimmy for allowing Ichini lynch, and general sniping.
[post=11252090]499[/post] Points out to Ichini that he can vote defensively. Worries about tie.
[post=11252216]519[/post] Night 1.
[post=11252266]523[/post] Content-free.
[post=11252359]529[/post] Content-free.
[post=11252933]541[/post] Content-free.
[post=11253120]545[/post] Speculates that Meeko is a NK target due to role claim.
[post=11253815]549[/post] Content-free. Comments that WIFOM gets old fast.
[post=11254315]555[/post] Content-free.
[post=11258325]572[/post] Explains that he is not talking strategy at night to give scum less NK info.
[post=11259287]574[/post] Replace BillMC and paul.
[post=11259388]579[/post] Day 2.
[post=11259412]583[/post] Comments that Vigs should keep their heads down early in the game. Comments on Scud’s skeletal Fiend case.
[post=11259417]585[/post] Leans scum for Fiend, not sure of Day 2 vote yet.
[post=11259489]591[/post] Disagrees with story’s new name-claim idea based on canon knowledge.
[post=11259567]596[/post] Presses story for additional data regarding cast size and role alignment to support name-claim strategy. Still not convinced.
[post=11260086]601[/post] Responds to Meeko re: town Roleblockers (and Vigs).
[post=11262462]631[/post] Not sure about story vs. Jimmy sniping.
[post=11263628]637[/post] Comments on bad Vig play and questions whether town Vig should claim. Votes Oredigger based on early Meeko voter and contributing to Ichini lynch (and Fiend save).
[post=11264995]645[/post] Asks Scuba why he is voting for Shadow.
[post=11265252]650[/post] Not opposed to lynching Fiend. Agrees with Chronos that scum would gain little by vote-switching or getting involved in a town-on-town nailbiter.
[post=11265863]661[/post] Responds to Scuba: asks about Scuba’s Zeriel vote, and defends agains Fiend vote.
[post=11270850]727[/post] No-op re: Meeko/fang dust-up. Interested in my case against Chronos. Nothing substantive enough to change vote.
[post=11271920]736[/post] Encourages voting to break potential ties. Calls out Shadow and Fiend. Not moving his vote.
[post=11272237]740[/post] Apologizes to Fiend, Calls out Allwalker, Shadow and Oredigger. Asks Meeko to clarify case against me.
[post=11273039]758[/post] Points out bandwagonds against Meeko, Fiend (twice) and Oredigger (launched by Telcontar) in response to Meeko. Fingers pede, bit still voting for Oredigger.
[post=11273680]783[/post] Indicates he will breask Chronos/Oredigger tie if necessary.
[post=11273682]784[/post] Will not break tie if Zeriel does.
[post=11273698]787[/post] Content-free (re: suicide).
[post=11274304]801[/post] Responds to ny question re: Redirector mechanics. Advises to not publicly speculate about power roles.
[post=11274365]803[/post] Asks one-off voters to break tie.
[post=11274527]810[/post] Indicates two votes missing.
[post=11274668]827[/post] Responds to Meeko that the main factor for vote-switching advice was to break the tie.
[post=11274705]833[/post] Responds to Meeko’s WIFOM scum vote speculation. WOuld be suspicious of vote change at this point (note: ties has been broken prior to this).
[post=11274737]842[/post] Content-free.
[post=11274751]847[/post] Content-free.
[post=11274829]859[/post] Content-free.
[post=11274831]860[/post] Night 2.
[post=11275466]879[/post] Defends Oredigger vote (cast first vote). Fingers storyteller.
[post=11275606]882[/post] Appears on story’s list. Against story’s name-claim idea.
[post=11275648]884[/post] Responds to story. Opposes name-claim idea.
[post=11275819]888[/post] Not opposed to list survey response (and has responded), fingers story for proposing name-claim idea.
[post=11276084]897[/post] Responds to Meeko: completing list survey at Night does not give Scum much information, so we should get it over with.
[post=11276312]901[/post] Snipes at Meeko for calling him a furry.
[post=11277236]908[/post] Suggests Vincent (talking dog?) is a major character, yet not on any lists.
[post=11277409]916[/post] Alerts all that RL will keep him away for a few days.
[post=11277413]917[/post] Asks Chronos to look at all votes in his program.
[post=11282776]950[/post] Day 3.
[post=11288539]981[/post] Not sure about current suspicions having been wrong about Oredigger. Questions impportance of Chronos’s character (Michael Dawson).
[post=11293454]1007[/post] Votes storyteller based on voting record and continuing to push name-claim.
[post=11295215]1032[/post] Fingers story for distracting everyone from scum-hunting with his claim and survey ideas.
[post=11297034]1050[/post] Worries that Fiend’s absence may be scum flying under the radar. Believes Chronos is innocent.
[post=11297280]1055[/post] Encourages Zeriel to vote storyteller based on non-vote. Fingers Fiend for absence, but suspects he is town.
[post=11297393]1071[/post] Unvotes storytreller after claim. Thinks about vote – no reason to suspect Chronos or Scuba.
[post=11297455]1077[/post] Votes pede. “Best I’ve got right now.”
[post=11297461]1078[/post] Points out that Scum know enough to block story from early on – weird.
[post=11297910]1131[/post] Night 3.
[post=11301051]1160[/post] Content-free.
[post=11302806]1176[/post] Responds to Meeko and opines that while he is probably town, he is not confirmed.
[post=11304073]1179[/post] Content-free.
[post=11304144]1181[/post] Hopes that we will learn something from the Night actions (or lack thereof).
[post=11304379]1187[/post] Day 4.
[post=11304409]1194[/post] Not convinced re: AllWalker’s Chronos breadcrum, but leans town for Chronos in any event.
[post=11306251]1223[/post] Comments that town power role lineup seems pretty good.
[post=11307794]1239[/post] Leaning pede as Scum. Dismisses Chrono/Shadow spat.
[post=11309843]1266[/post] Advises to wait until end of weekend to request pede modkill.
[post=11309872]1267[/post] Votes pede based on previous Day’s case. Scuba second on list.
[post=11312205]1285[/post] Accepts Chronos/Town, stroy/Cop, Meeko/Vig. Wonders about Shadow. Asks Meeko about possible Vig kill, votes to modkill pede.
[post=11312420]1289[/post] Fingers Scuba based on Shadow’s and AllWalker’s (very weak) posts.
[post=11312968]1293[/post] Asks Jimmy for more info on Zeriel/Shadow “tingling” (Shadow arguing against breadcrumbs).
[post=11313365]1300[/post] Soft-defends Jimmy’s suspicions against Zeriel and Shadown, but advises revisiting.
[post=11313439]1302[/post] Reinforces pede case, confirms Scuba as #2. Quick re-read (Today) shows Shadow as suspicious.
[post=11314459]1321[/post] (pede has claimed.) Dispair at pede/Shadow spat. Not changing vote.
[post=11314944]1354[/post] Response to Zeriel, analysis of sort/pede/Shadow scenario. Notes that Shadow could be Town, presses pede on role, queries Shadow on “flailing” and fear of death.
[post=11315008]1356[/post] Claims Ana Lucia Cortez, Vanilla Town (hot).
[post=11315014]1357[/post] Advises Meeko on bullet use.
[post=11315826]1386[/post] Implores pede and Shadow to respond (to 1354).
[post=11318444]1431[/post] Unvotes pede after response. Admonishes against anti-town play.
[post=11318679]1439[/post] Votes Shadow based on pede/story conflist and anti-Chronos stance.
[post=11318993]1474[/post] Night 4.
[post=11319428]1484[/post] Wonders about recruiting.
[post=11319655]1489[/post] Confirms that he is Vanilla (vs. hot).
[post=11319914]1506[/post] Comments about potential timing of scum votes on Shadow.
[post=11319926]1510[/post] Comfortable with Meeko as Vig (vs. anyone else).
[post=11325505]1559[/post] Asks Meeko why he is on his suspicion list.
[post=11326155]1561[/post] Content-free.
[post=11326701]1574[/post] Day 5.
[post=11326732]1577[/post] Asks questions re: Night actions (Meeko, story).
[post=11326788]1582[/post] Comments on pede’s Chronos blocktect, still wondering about Meeko.
[post=11326944]1601[/post] Agrees that Meeko’s Gambit (claim multi-bullet Vig) made sense.
[post=11327052]1610[/post] Posts link to JSP point system.
[post=11327523]1616[/post] OK with shorter night.
[post=11331798]1631[/post] Responds to Meeko that it is worth revisiting first Day Meeko votes for cross-reference.
[post=11331918]1633[/post] Notes that Diver is the only remaining unknown from story’s “cold-stone certain” scum list. Notes that Diver has kept his head down.
[post=11332012]1637[/post] Votes USCDiver based on story’s list. Scuba still running second, but Shadow’s attack on Scuba leaves some room for doubt.
[post=11332015]1638[/post] Asks if anyone has a strong feeling about low-poster me (cardinal_fang).
[post=11333135]1650[/post] Posts role PM.
[post=11333161]1654[/post] Responds to my post re: Scuba fishing. Advises that my low post-count does not give a read on me and that low-lying Scum would love a profile like that.
[post=11334061]1664[/post] Asks if we should go back to the name significance theory (Scum are “less important/later”).
[post=11334206]1668[/post] Notes that he was not attempting to start a Diver bandwagon, but is accountable for his Diver vote nonetheless.
[post=11335030]1671[/post] Questions Diver’s PM timing case, notes that fake PMs were provided and there was no need for Scum to invent them.
[post=11337552]1692[/post] Calls out Zeriel for OMGUS vote.
[post=11337770]1696[/post] Confirms my post re: game-balance, and wold make sense that there are two Vanilla Scum and two power roles (Roleblocket and something else). Believe Chronos was crumbed.
[post=11338085]1697[/post] States we are at LyLo.
[post=11338096]1698[/post] Corrects himself. LyLo Tomorrow.
[post=11338295]1701[/post] Confirms room for 1 mislynch.
[post=11341880]1737[/post] Admonished Scuba for abstaining. Casts Scuba vote on previous suspiocions and principle.
[post=11342069]1742[/post] Votes Zeriel to prevent potential tie and “bury” Zeriel.
[post=11342163]1749[/post] Content-free.
[post=11342185]1750[/post] Night 5.
[post=11342196]1752[/post] Content-free.
[post=11345582]1797[/post] Responds to Diver, defends Zeriel vote (accused of cred-building) and PM business, reluctant to put faith in Chronos’s algorithm. Fingers me based on Diver vote and Chronos program.
[post=11345830]1801[/post] Analyses previous Day’s voting, pushed back re: Diver’s PM accusations, more worries about Chrono’s program.
[post=11346016]1806[/post] Content-free.
[post=11346144]1813[/post] Content-free.
[post=11347706]1836[/post] Day 6.
[post=11348247]1846[/post] Votes Diver based on Yesterday’s case and story’s FOS. Warns against Chronos’s program again.
[post=11349364]1869[/post] Clarifies Jimmy/fang statement in previous post. Warns against Chronos’s program, sticks with vote.
[post=11350820]1875[/post] Askd mod to shorten Days. Posts link to previous Diver case.
[post=11351570]1879[/post] Posts FYI vote/slacker list.
[post=11355763]1905[/post] Encourage more votes.
[post=11357157]1932[/post] Defends previous vites against pede; blames pede’s behaviour. FOS Jimmy for last-minute voting antics. Happy with Diver vote.
[post=11357964]1938[/post] Still foes not trust Chronos’s program. Posts analysis based on Chronos’s program. cardinal_fang certainly Scum.
[post=11358320]1940[/post] Anti-Chronos program.
[post=11361486]1972[/post] Suggests tiebreak options. Believes one of Diver and Jimmy are Scum based on vote dynamics.
[post=11361915]1976[/post] Content-free.
[post=11362177]1979[/post] Night 6.
[post=11362645]1991[/post] Smoke-monster ate a townie.
[post=11363529]2005[/post] Responds to Jimmy re: Zeriel/Diver slip and PIS accusation (Diver known town).
[post=11363532]2006[/post] Content-free.
[post=11364425]2025[/post] Responds to Meeko re: tiebreak mechanics/colour.
[post=11365498]2030[/post] Refutes Scuba’s analysis of Jimmy’s reporting on Diver’s alignment.
[post=11365686]2039[/post] Further questioning Scuba. Indicates that Chronos’s program is “potentially useful” based on pairings.
[post=11365703]2041[/post] FOS cardinal_fang based on pairing analysis and discounting Jimmy/Scuba pairing.
[post=11365814]2049[/post] Day 7.
[post=11365882]2053[/post] Potential cardinal_fang based on pairing analysis.
[post=11365892]2054[/post] Holding off vote until others weigh in.
[post=11367193]2061[/post] Clarifies previous post, awaits cardinal_fang input.
[post=11368303]2065[/post] Vote cardinal_fang, open to changing it.
[post=11369467]2069[/post] Points out that Jimmy and cardinal_fang are the only ones against a fang lynch at this point.
[post=11376129]2082[/post] Applauds Chronos’s summaries, revisits AllWalker’s name/alignment list. Wonders about Scuba’s voting record, but leans town.
[post=11376277]2084[/post] Not sure how coherent Scum are.
Analysis
Telcontar is a good player. His posts are well-reasoned, and he has a great knowledge of the game. One thing I noticed is that he does not court controversy; he is quick to step back when challenged (as in the very last post above): “That’s true. You’re right.” etc. He also couches a lot of opinions without strong language, like: “I think this, but this opposite other thing is possible, so we shouldn’t weigh it too heavily, but nonetheless it’s worth investigating. What do others think?” If he’s Scum he is doing a good job of not attracting suspicion.
He has smudged Chronos’s program several times, but has used it to reinforce his analysis.
His voting record (below) is a mixed bag. He has gone after pede at length, as well as USCDiver. His vote for Zeriel was cast in order to avoid a potential tie, and he admits in 1801 he would have happily vote for Diver if not for the Zeriel slip. If story is to be believed, Scum will happily lynch Scum to gain town cred (as Diver accused). He continues to be suspicious of Scuba, and has cast one (mid-day) vote for him.
So, after a few hours, I don’t have a great read on Telcontar. His voting record is not a whole lot better than mine, and in fact it seems our play has been similar in some ways (even he mentions this in 2053).
One thing I do have a question on. In post 1801 Telcontar says this:
Is this the Perfect Information Slip I think it is? How would a lynch of USCDiver have given Zeriel town-cred when we did not know the alignment of Diver at this point?
More to follow after dinner break.
Voting record
Day 1
[ul]
[li] Vote pede[/li][li] Vote Fiend[/li][/ul]
Day 2
[ul]
[li] Vote Oredigger[/li][/ul]
Day 3
[ul]
[li] Vote storyteller[/li][li] Vote pede[/li][/ul]
Day 4
[ul]
[li] Vote pede[/li][li] Modkill pede[/li][li] Vote Shadow[/li][/ul]
Day 5
[ul]
[li] Vote USCDiver[/li][li] Vote Scuba[/li][li] Vote Zeriel[/li][/ul]
Day 6
[ul]
[li] Vote USCDiver[/li][/ul]
Day 7
[ul]
[li] Vote cardinal_fang[/li][/ul]
It can’t be, unless we started with 5 Scum. For that to be PIS, we’d have to have Telcontar and Diver both Scum, and if Diver is Scum, then Jimmy is a liar for saying he turned up Town.
He made this statement during Night 5, prior to any of the Day 6 voting or the tie-breaker. It would be 5 days before Jimmy would say Diver turned up Town, yet Telcontar claims to know Diver’s alignment.
Chronos, can you please post your updated program?
OK, I believe the vote is 4-0 at this point. I will appeal to my fellow townies to see if there is any way out of this. I don’t particularly mind dying, but Jimmy hit the nail on the head when he said that if Diver was Town, then the game is over if I am lynched (although I suppose I am the only one that knows this).
There is not much I can do against The Program. Chronos, if you are indeed town, please consider an analysis that removes the OMGUS factor involved with me voting for you twice (since your analysis considers you town).
Yes, but we know Jimmy’s claim now. If it had been pointed out earlier, I think it might have been reasonable for Town to think that was a PIS, but knowing what we know now, I don’t think in retrospect that it could have been.
In other words, remove the assumption that I’m Town?
[noparse]#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 13 /* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 4 /* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4 /* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define scum_votes 17 /* Number of Scum votes cast so far */
main()
{
int players[n_players]; /* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
unsigned int players_binary;
unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
char names[n_players][20] = {"Telcontar", "AllWalker", "Chronos", "Imaginary Fiend", "Meeko", "USCDiver", "pedescribe", "Scuba Ben", "Zeriel", "ShadowFacts", "Jimmy Chitwood", "storyteller", "cardinal_fang"};
int n_scum;
int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
int i;
int score[n_players];
int total_scenarios = 0;
int town_votes;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */
for(players_binary=0; players_binary < 8192; players_binary++) {
players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
}
n_scum = 0;
buses = 0;
attacks = 0;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
if(players* == 1) n_scum++; /* Count the number of Scum */
}
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
town_votes = 8; // Ichini, Tom, Nanook, and Oredigger cast 8 votes
if(!players[0]) town_votes += 10; // Telcontar cast 10 votes
if(!players[1]) town_votes += 6; // AllWalker cast 6 votes
if(!players[2]) town_votes += 9; // Chronos cast 9 votes
if(!players[3]) town_votes += 2; // Imaginary Fiend cast 2 votes
if(!players[4]) town_votes += 15; // Meeko cast 15 votes
if(!players[5]) town_votes += 7; // USCDiver cast 7 votes
if(!players[6]) town_votes += 5; // pede cast 5 votes
if(!players[7]) town_votes += 10; // Scuba_Ben cast 10 votes
if(!players[8]) town_votes += 6; // Zeriel cast 6 votes
if(!players[9]) town_votes += 6; // ShadowFacts cast 6 votes
if(!players[10]) town_votes += 6; // Jimmy cast 6 votes
if(!players[11]) town_votes += 7; // storyteller cast 7 votes
if(!players[12]) town_votes += 6; // cardinal_fang cast 6 votes
/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for Fiend
if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++; // Fiend voted for ShadowFacts
if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++; // Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver
if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++; // Meeko voted for cardinal_fang
if(players[5] && players[4]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for Meeko
if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(players[6] && players[3]) buses++; // pede voted for Fiend
if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++; // Zeriel voted for AllWalker
if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++; // ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben
if(players[10] && players[6]) buses++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede
if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos
if(players[12] && players[3]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for Fiend
if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(players[1] && players[7]) buses++; // AllWalker voted for Scuba
if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(players[8] && players[2]) buses++; // Zeriel voted for Chronos
if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++; // Jimmy voted for Chronos
if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
if(players[0] && players[8]) buses++; // Telcontar voted Zeriel
if(players[2] && players[8]) buses++; // Chronos voted Zeriel
if(players[4] && players[8]) buses++; // Meeko voted Zeriel
if(players[5] && players[8]) buses++; // USCDiver voted Zeriel
if(players[7] && players[5]) buses++; // Scuba voted USCDiver
if(players[8] && players[5]) buses++; // Zeriel voted USCDiver
if(players[10] && players[8]) buses++; // Jimmy voted Zeriel
if(players[11] && players[5]) buses++; // storyteller voted USCDiver
if(players[12] && players[5]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted USCDiver
if(players[0] && players[5]) buses++; // Telcontar voted USCDiver
if(players[2] && players[10]) buses++; // Chronos voted Jimmy
if(players[4] && players[2]) buses++; // Meeko voted Chronos
if(players[5] && players[10]) buses++; // USCDiver voted Jimmy
if(players[7] && players[10]) buses++; // Scuba voted Jimmy
if(players[10] && players[5]) buses++; // Jimmy voted USCDiver
if(players[12] && players[5]) buses++; // cardinal voted USCDiver
/* Count number of attacks-- End of day */
if(!players[0] && players[3]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for Fiend
if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++; // Fiend voted for ShadowFacts
if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver
if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for cardinal_fang
if(!players[5] && players[4]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for Meeko
if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(!players[6] && players[3]) attacks++; // pede voted for Fiend
if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++; // Zeriel voted for AllWalker
if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++; // ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben
if(!players[10] && players[6]) attacks++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede
if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[3]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for Fiend
if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
if(players[3]) attacks += 2; // Tom Scud and Nanook (known Town) voted Fiend
if(players[11]) attacks++; // Ichini (known Town) voted storyteller
if(players[2]) attacks++; // Oredigger (known Town) voted Chronos
if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(!players[1] && players[7]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted for Scuba
if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(!players[8] && players[2]) attacks++; // Zeriel voted for Chronos
if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++; // Jimmy voted for Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
if(!players[0] && players[8]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted Zeriel
if(!players[2] && players[8]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Zeriel
if(!players[4] && players[8]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Zeriel
if(!players[5] && players[8]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted Zeriel
if(!players[7] && players[5]) attacks++; // Scuba voted USCDiver
if(!players[8] && players[5]) attacks++; // Zeriel voted USCDiver
if(!players[10] && players[8]) attacks++; // Jimmy voted Zeriel
if(!players[11] && players[5]) attacks++; // storyteller voted USCDiver
if(!players[12] && players[5]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted USCDiver
if(!players[0] && players[5]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted USCDiver
if(!players[2] && players[10]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Jimmy
if(!players[4] && players[2]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Chronos
if(!players[5] && players[10]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted Jimmy
if(!players[7] && players[10]) attacks++; // Scuba voted Jimmy
if(!players[10] && players[5]) attacks++; // Jimmy voted USCDiver
if(!players[12] && players[5]) attacks++; // cardinal voted USCDiver
/* Count number of buses-- Withdrawn votes */
/* if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(players[1] && players[4]) buses++; // AllWalker voted for Meeko
if(players[2] && players[3]) buses++; // Chronos voted for Fiend
if(players[4] && players[6]) buses++; // Meeko voted for pede
if(players[4] && players[10]) buses++; // Meeko voted for Jimmy
if(players[4] && players[3]) buses++; // Meeko voted for Fiend
if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for AllWalker
if(players[6] && players[2]) buses++; // pede voted for Chronos
if(players[6] && players[4]) buses++; // pede voted for Meeko
if(players[7] && players[9]) buses++; // Scuba voted for Shadowfacts
if(players[7] && players[8]) buses++; // Scuba voted for Zeriel
if(players[9] && players[0]) buses++; // Shadow voted for Telcontar
if(players[10] && players[3]) buses++; // Jimmy voted for Fiend
if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++; // storyteller voted for Chronos
if(players[12] && players[6]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for pede
if(players[0] && players[11]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for storyteller
if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++; // Chronos voted for storyteller
if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++; // Meeko voted for USCDiver
if(players[4] && players[7]) buses++; // Meeko voted for Scuba
if(players[7] && players[2]) buses++; // Scuba voted for Chronos
if(players[7] && players[11]) buses++; // Scuba voted for storyteller
if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++; // Shadow voted for Scuba
*/
/* Count number of attacks-- Withdrawn votes */
if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(!players[1] && players[4]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted for Meeko
if(!players[2] && players[3]) attacks++; // Chronos voted for Fiend
if(!players[4] && players[6]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for pede
if(!players[4] && players[10]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for Jimmy
if(!players[4] && players[3]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for Fiend
if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for AllWalker
if(!players[6] && players[2]) attacks++; // pede voted for Chronos
if(!players[6] && players[4]) attacks++; // pede voted for Meeko
if(!players[7] && players[9]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for Shadowfacts
if(!players[7] && players[8]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for Zeriel
if(!players[9] && players[0]) attacks++; // Shadow voted for Telcontar
if(!players[10] && players[3]) attacks++; // Jimmy voted for Fiend
if(!players[11] && players[2]) attacks++; // storyteller voted for Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[6]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for pede
if(players[4]) attacks += 2; // Tom Scud and Oredigger (known Town) voted Meeko
if(!players[0] && players[11]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for storyteller
if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++; // Chronos voted for storyteller
if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for USCDiver
if(!players[4] && players[7]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for Scuba
if(!players[7] && players[2]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for Chronos
if(!players[7] && players[11]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for storyteller
if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++; // Shadow voted for Scuba
if(!players[0] && players[5]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted USCDiver
if(!players[0] && players[7]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted Scuba
if(!players[2] && players[10]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Jimmy
if(!players[4] && players[2]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Chronos
if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++; // Meeko voted USCDiver
if(!players[8] && players[10]) attacks++; // Zeriel voted Jimmy
if(!players[4] && players[10]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Jimmy
if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++; // Meeko voted USCDiver
if(!players[5] && players[0]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted Telcontar
if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum)) /* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
if((attacks)*scum_votes > (buses)*town_votes) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */
/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
// if(players[2] == 0) /* Assume Chronos Town */
if(players[4] == 0) /* Assume Meeko Town */
if(players[3] == 0) /* Fiend was Town */
if(players[1] == 0) /* AllWalker was Town */
if(players[11] == 0) /* AllWalker breadcrumbed storyteller */
if(players[6] == 0) /* pede was Jack */
if(players[9] == 1) /* Shadow was Scum */
if(players[8] == 1) /* Zeriel was Scum */
if((players[5] == 0) || (players[10] == 1)) /* Jimmy said Diver came up Town */
{
total_scenarios++;
/* Output all scenarios */
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
/* if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*); */
if(players* == 1) {
printf("%s ",names*);
score*++;
}
}
printf("
");
}
}
/* Output scores */
fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s %d
",names*,score*);
return(0);
}[/noparse]
Telcontar Chronos Zeriel ShadowFacts
Chronos Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts
Telcontar Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood
Telcontar Zeriel ShadowFacts cardinal_fang
Chronos Zeriel ShadowFacts cardinal_fang
Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts cardinal_fang
Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood cardinal_fang
Total number of possibilities: 7
Telcontar 3
AllWalker 0
Chronos 3
Imaginary Fiend 0
Meeko 0
USCDiver 0
pedescribe 0
Scuba Ben 2
Zeriel 7
ShadowFacts 7
Jimmy Chitwood 2
storyteller 0
cardinal_fang 4
Incidentally, it doesn’t look likely to change anything, but have you decided on a vote?
Underlining mine.
Telcontar, your vote for Scuba was based on his abstention on principle, and your general suspicions.Jimmy, Telcontar voted for Scuba for a total of 39 minutes, do you really believe this qualifies as “tried to get him lynched”?
Yes, but Telcontar didn’t know it 10 days ago.
Working on it. Thanks for posting The Program.
Incidentally, the name I use for it is the Sausage Grinder. I stuff everything I can think of in the hopper in the top, turn the crank, and something (hopefully) useful comes out the bottom.
Well, I somehow doubt that I will move Chronos off of his vote. The Program speaketh – we will definitely learn something one way or the other after this game.
**
Scuba_Ben**, you have voted for me based on your assumption that Jimmy is town, and that can only leave Telcontar and me as the Scum pair. Have you had a chance to investigate the former assumption, and can you tell me why you picked me over Telcontar?
Telcontar, if you are scum, you are very good. Aside from the PIS (I’d like to see your reply), your play is low-key and not apt to draw attention. Your vote on me is based (like most of the others) on the pairings analysis whereupon you eliminate Chronos and yourself, then go from there. You also eliminate Jimmy/Scuba based on yesterday’s vote, which makes it easy enough to make a case for me. Can’t really argue.
Jimmy, at the the very least considered the consequences of this vote before wading in. Props for that.
Which brings me to my vote. We are at a the very real possibility of LyLo. A mislynch will end the game for Town, so I would expect votes to be carefully considered. So I was more than a little disheartened to see Scuba’s vote right after Dawn. His case is simply eliminating the pairs he and Chronos are not in, eliminating Jimmy/Telcontar (and Diver), claiming to want to investigate Jimmy further, but then not following up on it (including failure to respond to Telcontar’s arguments about why he is wrong). We have not heard from him since the vote (aside from a couple of fluff posts). I am OK if you build a case and defend it, but to cast a vote that can quite possibly end the game seven minutes into the Day and disappear until now deserves more than a raised eyebrow. Coupled with my earlier suspicions and yet another post-count smudge post:
Vote Scuba_Ben
BTW, great job on the summaries Chronos. That is a lot of work.
Looks like I might have been wrong on the timing. I did, however, attack him prior to that. It started around 1284. Looking back over your WoW, it looks like i might have spent less time voting for him than i realized, but i was consistently mentioning him as number 2 in my suspicions throughout day 4.
Re: Slip
In that case I was outlining a hypothetical scenario in which both diver and zeriel were scum. In that case the diver-zeriel smash-up would have been scum on scum, with the partial goal of extracting town cred for the winner. I think that was more clear from context at the time. As chronos pointed out, if diver were scum, then jimmy would also have to be scum and if diver, jimmy, and myself were scum then we’d have 5, which is fairly implausible point wise; i think story was right in concluding that we must have 4. Whether or not diver was scum, I certainly had no knowledge of his status then and nor am i sure now.
NETA:
Do you suspect a scuba-me pair, or a jimmy-scuba pair?
It’d be an insane amount of work if I did it all at once; I’ve been keeping those notes for the entire game, because otherwise I wouldn’t be able to follow things myself. Pretty much every time in the game I’ve posted a link, it was just copy-pasted from those notes.
I could in principle move my vote if someone convinced me of the Scuba-Jimmy pair, but it’d have to be pretty strong evidence. In all of the other pairs that my analysis shows as even plausible, you’re the (or at least a) correct vote. So you’d have to convince me that the Scuba-Jimmy pair is more likely than all other pairs combined.
Nope. That’s what I was asking about.
Yes, but see day 4. I had him as my runner up suspicion for what felt like ages. Then pedescribe claimed, then shadow imploded, then zeriel imploded…It’s been a bit busy around here :-P. By the time i got back to scuba it was Today, and now i have reason to vote for cardinal…
If we don’t lynch scuba this game and he turns out to be scum i’m going to feel like such an idiot after all this time 