IF, Oredigger, cardinal, and storyteller. I’d be willing to bet…well, a lot on it.
You make a good point, though.
Unvote Oredigger
Vote Imaginary Fiend
Snipped, to provide the answers as requested.
Re: 279
But what if the third vote is for Opal?
Then we lynch her.
OK, I am re-reading and trying to get a bead on who to vote for, and am having a really hard time (as I have been all Day). I’m going to throw out some not-votes based on my read so far (i.e. those who I will not be voting for based on evidence to date), as well as review where I’m at. This is probably more helpful to me to organize my thoughts than for any of you, so bear with me.
[ul]
[li]Cardinal Fang’s case against **Chronos **is long and well-documented (just the kind of case I like - thanks for laying it all out like that, Cardinal), but is it substantial? I need to really sit down with that one and look through it. [/li][li]I vaguely recall not being convinced by telcontar’s case on Oredigger, but need to review that as well.[/li][li]Zeriel’s case against **AllWalker **seems quite thin to me. Could be cuddling, could be just a mistake, and there’s absolutely no way to know for sure. Not enough for me to vote.[/li][li]I’ve already stated at length why I think voting for **Fiend **based only on how other people voted is a bad idea. Very little, if anything, has been added to that case, so not enough for me to vote either.[/li][li]I missed why **ScubaBen **voted for Zeriel. I will need to review that.[/li][li]Meeko’s case against Cardinal Fang is incoherent rambling, as best as I can make out. I definitely will not be voting for **Fang **based on that. [/li][li]Fiend’s vote for me is obviously wrong :p. I won’t be voting for myself.[/li][/ul]
It’s possible I’ll find some stuff against someone who doesn’t already have any votes while re-reading, and I’ll build a case if I have the time, but I’m not sanguine about that.
OK, so I went back to look at **Scuba Ben’s **case against Zeriel, and it is thiiiiiin. Practically non-existent, so I looked into it a bit more. Here’s the relevant portion of his vote post:
But I looked back and that post 401, and it actually has more reasons than just “because they’ve done something more tangible.”
and
Now, we know **Zeriel **was wrong about **Ichini **(as was I and everyone else who voted for him), but he did in fact state a case for the vote and also explain why he didn’t like either of the two leading candidates at the time. **Scuba Ben **clipped all that and made **Zeriel’s **case look much weaker than the admittedly weak case it already was, and then voted him for it. That looks really suspicious to me. I’m surprised **Zeriel **didn’t comment on this himself (or maybe he did and I missed it).
So, for now while I continue to read, I will
Vote Scuba Ben
for misrepresenting another player’s case, then voting for him.
OK, I’ve now looked back on the case against Oredigger, which as far as I can tell is contained in this post. The relevant portion is:
As with the first time I read it, I remain unconvinced, because it is mostly predicated on the late vote-swing theory, which only holds water if **Fiend **is scum, etc. etc. There are a few other factors there which make it a bit more compelling than that, but not enough for me to vote Oredigger.
OK, sorry for the many posts in a row, but I had to squeeze in as much as I could when I could. I have to stop now, but will try to review Fang’s large post re: **Chronos **before the deadline tomorrow. At least now I finally have a vote on record, even if it is a one-off at the moment.
So you’re willing to bet - bet - that you have identified four Scum - possibly all the Scum - on Day Two, on the basis of one sequence?
Seriously? This is awesome, and we should do this all the time. It’s a really interesting way to look at the vote record, and it tells us all sorts of things, and I can’t figure out why no one has ever done it before.
As I noted at the time, I believe that it is certain that there was at least one Scum on the Meeko wagon. We know it wasn’t Tom Scud, so that leaves us four. Of the four, Oredigger was the only one to also contribute to the lynch of Ichini over IF.
Fuck, I hate this game until there’s a Scum identified. Once there’s one, the patterns always look a little clearer.
Still slogging through vote analysis. I will try to finish it tomorrow.
For the moment, though, I am withdrawing my vote on Chronos. The beginnings of this analysis suggest that there may be better places to put my vote, but I need to follow the posts to see if there are.
unvote Chronos
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Is this sarcasm, or do you like what I am doing?
-
Based on the numbers alone, we will probably mislynch again, right? When do we turn it around, on a numbers basis? When do we turn it around with numbers, and better play than what we have?
All this last-day vote muddying around Chronos has me, frankly, suspicious.
NETA: Chronos, Ore, and IF. Right now I’m seeing it as VERY close, with the leader with three votes? The only thing saving this from scum manipulation is that they can’t be too obvious.
Yes. Yes I would. Of course, you’d be skeptical, I’m not surprised. But I had you and Digger pegged before today, for the record.
Sorry about the low posting count and no voting. I should be able to turn that around.
Vote Oredigger
First of all, there’s the stuff in Telcontar’s post, which make sense to me. The lack of drama comment in particular makes sense, particularly reflecting on toDay. I know I know, RL beckoned, but that covers the first half of the Day. There have been 3 posts from him since then, all fairly neutral.
The case against Chronos is crap, so this is also partly a defensive vote in his favour. I honestly believe Chronos is far more likely to be Town than Scum, and I don’t care if that comes to bite me. Not only that, but he is a good player - I want to keep him around for as long as possible.
I don’t think I’m being particularly articulate here, but I hope I’m getting my point across effectively. Exams make you stupid.
See, this is what I’m talking about. If another townie dies today, just keep in mind we went from 4-2-1-1-1-1-1 at 5:45 EST to 3-2-2-1-1-1-1-1, less than a day before the Day ends.
If you guys are so un-serious as to be swayed so easily, why are you voting in the first place?
Also, BIG FOS for **ShadowFacts **for tossing out YET ANOTHER one-off this late in the Day. Way to hide in plain sight, chum.
Unvote IF
Vote Oredigger
**Day ends at 11:30 AM Eastern Wednesday.
Vote Count
Chronos(3): Jimmy Chitwood, CardinalFang, USCDiver
Oredigger(3): Telcontar, AllWalker, Pedescribe
Imaginary Fiend(1): Chronos
AllWalker(1): Zeriel
Zeriel(1): ScubaBen
ShadowFacts(1): Imaginary Fiend
CardinalFang(1): Meeko**
Jesus Christmas Christ. Would anyone like to perhaps fuck with the town by breaking a tie?
I don’t know how to play this game. I don’t know what everyone else’s excuse is. What the hell’s going on around here?