I don’t know, Jimmy, but I DO know that **pedescribe **just wrote out his own death warrant if he’s wrong.
If I have to break a tie, I’m leaning towards Chronos, but I’ll hold off on that until closer to Dusk.
Well, if he is wrong (which I think he is) and hangs for it, and turns out to be scum, then things aren’t so confusing after all.
If there is a tie going into the lynch then I will break it (well, unless a cute girl intervenes); I’d rather not find out what a tie does.
I think the main problem is that we don’t actually have all that much to go on. I tried to present a solid, honest case and I think I did, but even I’ll admit that it isn’t based on all that much. I’m making an educated and (slightly) informed guess as to who is best to kill.
NETA: Zeriel, if you break the tie (either way) I will make no move to interfere. I currently plan to check in slightly pre 1130 to make sure two players aren’t tied. Hopefully I’ll remember and nothing will happen after i vote.
I actually doubt pedescribe’s scum–you’d have to be a ballsy motherfucker to play scum like that. Of course, WIFOM.
It’s true, I suppose.
Maybe we should all just kill ourselves.
If you vote for yourself you have either:
1.) voted for someone you know to be mafia, in which case I should follow your vote
or
2.) voted for someone you know to be an innocent villager, in which case i should vote against you.
Just saying 
Yeah, we’d have to agree to go at the same time to avoid those kinds of problems.
Checking in. Wow! Lots of drama.
Couple of comments on response to Chronos. I am keeping it short because, frankly, we are basically going round-and-round at this point and I doubt I am swaying votes at this stage.
Underlining mine. The issue is that you did not bring that up until now. It is not in your linked post, and you are presenting it as a calculated risk Nanook and Tom Scud took, while you chose not to.
Except that you said you had no intention of doing so prior to the rule change.
Yes, we are having a violent agreement on that point :D.
My “certainty” is based on the obvious. They were both townies, they were both pushing for the name-claim, and they were both night-killed.
I am standing by my analysis and vote.
**Pede, when did you have me pegged as scum ? **
Hopefully you see what I am doing here. (c.f. Sarcasm)
Funny, how just last game, I Asked this question, and everyone [Mod included] looked at me like I grew three heads.
Ah. The good old days, where I could actually tell you why I felt so confused with Mafia.
pedescribe, may I ask what your case against me is? I did not get it on my post review.
This may be a simple question, but I did not see this role mentioned during the post-NK discussion. My knowledge of the various roles (aside from the ones we saw in CG) is based on reading wikis and tutorials, so bear with me.
How does a Redirector work? If I am reading this correctly, is the following scenario possible?
[ul]
[li]Scum Redirector chooses Scum S and Townie T as his targets.[/li][li]Town Vig targets Scum S for his night action.[/li][li]Vig action gets redirected to Townie T, and kills him.[/li][/ul]
Is this possible? And if so, likely?
Thanks.
Is it, or is it not, now WIFOM for me to ask why Cardinal would ask that ?
Ah, I see what you’re getting at there. The reason I didn’t say anything about that idea before the rule change was that I hadn’t thought of it yet. IIRC, I was thinking about it over lunch, and post 374 (just after the rule change) was my first time back to the thread after lunch that day.
Well, if they were both killed for their support of the name-claim idea, then that suggests that the Scum had two night-kills. It can’t be ruled out, of course, but that’s pretty worrisome, if so. I don’t think there’s anything more to say about that until toMorrow, though, when we see what happens with toNight’s kills.
On another note: I’m currently tied for the lead, and am not voting for my nearest rival. This means that I could vote Oredigger to save myself, but I’m not particularly suspicious of Oredigger. Is it a good move for a Town player in such a situation to cast a self-defense vote (if you don’t believe I’m Town, consider it a hypothetical about someone else in the same situation)? On the one hand, I’m definitely more suspicious of Oredigger than I am of myself (I know I’m Town, after all); but on the other hand, if I’m lynched, then everyone will learn that I’m Town, and be able to use that information to look for Scum in voting patterns. Is the information more or less valuable than my life?
On preview:
I think he’s speculating on why, last Night, we got two kills that looked Scum-motivated. If a Vig got unwittingly redirected onto one Townie, and the Scum got the other one directly, that would account for it.
Ok. does someone mind telling me what WIFOM means again?
Because, apparently, arguing with yourself on what you can think you know is apparent not it.
I didn’t. I had suspected you, but I never had the sureness or clearness that I did for those four.
I don’t have one, yet. I just have a really really strong gut feeling. I can make one, if you like.
Stay away from Vegas, kid.
Why are you not surprised that I’m skeptical? You (purportedly) believe that I am Scum, and that all three of the others you have named are Scum. If you are correct, than I know that you’re exactly right, and would have no reason to be skeptical.
Very broadly, WIFOM (in Mafia terms) refers to any situation where you try to guess at what Scum would do based on what you think they want you to think.
EG:
“Scum would never vote as a block this early in the game, because they don’t want to connect themselves with one another.”
“But that’s what Scum would want us to think, so maybe they voted as a block to confuse us.”
“But Scum would have known that we would be watching for a tactic like that, so they would have avoided working as a block.”
“But Scum would have known that we would have known that they would have known, so they could have voted as a block.”
Basically, any time you start going down a trail where the primary motivations you are trying to analyze involve “what do the Scum want the Town to think,” you are getting into WIFOM territory and you’re probably going to be chasing your tail.
It’s better, IMO, to try to tease out more concrete motivations: what are the Scum trying to do, not what do they want us to think.
Sorry for the triple-post, but I wanted to respond to this:
This is a difficult question. Your approach here means that you are basically claiming Vanilla - if I can see it, the Scum can see it, so might as well say it flat out - because if you were a power role you wouldn’t think to ask this question.
But my feeling is this: from your standpoint, if you are in fact Town, you know with 100% certainty that your lynch will be a mislynch. Unless you’re a Detective or a Mason (I doubt both of those things, based on your question above), you don’t know that with 100% certainty about anyone else. Your own vote should go to a player you think likely to be Scum, so in a situation like this, where not voting defensively means, in essence, voting for yourself, I believe the most pro-Town action is to vote defensively and let the rest of the Town work it out.
Milage may vary.