You were asking for an opinion, I gave you one. No one is in charge here and we’re not set up to take a vote on this sort of thing, so opinion is all there is.
I’m going to take that as a no. FTR: My question was Real Life.
Using a neutral source, LostPedia, these are who they have listed as “Major Characters”:
[ol]
[li]Jack[/li][li]Kate - Dead[/li][li]Sawyer - Claimed by Meeko[/li][li]Hurley - Dead[/li][li]Locke[/li][li]Sayid - Dead[/li][li]Jin[/li][li]Sun - Dead[/li][li]Charlie[/li][li]Claire[/li][li]Ben - Not a flight 815 survivor, super evil bad guy[/li][li]Michael[/li][li]Juliet - Not a flight 815 survivor, loyalties somewhat questionable[/li][li]Desmond - Not a flight 815 survivor, definitely a “good guy”[/li][li]Walt[/li][li]Shannon[/li][li]Boone[/li][li]Miles - Not a flight 815 survivor[/li][li]Ana Lucia[/li][li]Daniel - Not a flight 815 survivor[/li][li]Eko[/li][li]Libby[/li][li]Charlotte - Not a flight 815 survivor[/li][li]Nikki - Claimed by Imaginary Fiend[/li][li]Paulo[/li][/ol]
Taking those out, we are left with:
[ol]
[li]Jack[/li][li]Locke[/li][li]Jin[/li][li]Charlie[/li][li]Claire[/li][li]Michael[/li][li]Walt[/li][li]Shannon[/li][li]Boone[/li][li]Ana Lucia[/li][li]Eko[/li][li]Libby[/li][li]Paulo[/li][/ol]
Overlapping with storyteller’s list, we see that he has left off Paulo and Libby, but included Rose and Bernard. I post this for neutral data purposes only. I will for the time being withhold disclosing if I am on either list, until I determine that there is no benefit to scum in revealing it.
Oh, and I believe **telcontar **must be referring to Vincent, the Dog Who Knows Things. Should a dog be included on a list of major characters? He’s been in a lot of episodes…
I thought the same. I have been wondering how Mahaloth would “do” vincent, that is, a dog has to have some sort of post restriction, wouldn’t you think?
However, my original question to Tel on the subject went over like a lead balloon.
Incidentally,
If we can trust the list given, we also see 3 Others. [If you weren’t on the plane, you are scum, right?]
- Ben
- Miles
- Daniel
Could this game only have 3 scum?
NETA :
Nevermind. – UGH :smack:
But I doubt we would have 6 scum, either way.
Wait, Vincent’s here too?
i was just saying that he seemed like a major character and wasn’t on any lists.
I have no idea. telcontar said he thought there might be someone else on the list of major characters that story left out and hinted “woof.” I assumed he was talking about Vincent, and was explaining that to Meeko, who asked a question about it. (That was surprisingly complicated to explain, and on preview telcontar beat me to it - blech).
OK, I’ve got my program finished, except for a slight bug I can’t track down (for some reason, it’s blanking out Telcontar’s name).
To explain the basic idea, it takes every possible combination of people and alignment, discards any that don’t have the right number of Scum, discards any that show too low a level of Scum vote manipulation, discards any that conflict with known facts (there aren’t many of these yet), and counts up all of the scenarios that remain. The final score listed for a person is the number of scenarios in which that person is Scum, so that number divided by the total number of scenarios can be considered approximately as a probability that that person is Scum.
As it stands right now, I’m assuming that the Scum have, in total, voted to save a teammate at least as often as they have voted for a teammate. I’m currently only counting votes as they stood at the end of a Day. I am also assuming that there are exactly four Scum, and that Meeko is Town, due to his name claim. All of these assumptions can be varied.
The code:
[spoiler]
#include <stdio.h>
#define max_scum 4 /* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4 /* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define max_bus 0 /* Maximum expected number of busses */
main()
{
int players[13]; /* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
char names[13][20] = {"Telcontar", "AllWalker", "Chronos", "Imaginary Fiend", "Meeko", "USCDiver", "pedescribe", "Scuba Ben", "Zeriel", "ShadowFacts", "Jimmy Chitwood", "storyteller", "cardinal_fang"};
int n_scum;
int buses;
int i;
int score[13];
int total_scenarios = 0;
for(i=0;i<13;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */
for(players[0] = 0; players[0] < 2; players[0]++)
for(players[1] = 0; players[1] < 2; players[1]++)
for(players[2] = 0; players[2] < 2; players[2]++)
for(players[3] = 0; players[3] < 2; players[3]++)
for(players[4] = 0; players[4] < 2; players[4]++)
for(players[5] = 0; players[5] < 2; players[5]++)
for(players[6] = 0; players[6] < 2; players[6]++) /* List all the possibilities */
for(players[7] = 0; players[7] < 2; players[7]++)
for(players[8] = 0; players[8] < 2; players[8]++)
for(players[9] = 0; players[9] < 2; players[9]++)
for(players[10] = 0; players[10] < 2; players[10]++)
for(players[11] = 0; players[11] < 2; players[11]++)
for(players[12] = 0; players[12] < 2; players[12]++)
for(players[13] = 0; players[13] < 2; players[13]++) {
n_scum = 0;
buses = 0;
for(i=0;i<8;i++) {
if(players* == 1) n_scum++; /* Count the number of Scum */
}
/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++; /* Telcontar voted for Fiend */
if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++; /* Fiend voted for ShadowFacts */
if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++; /* Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver */
if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++; /* Meeko voted for cardinal_fang */
if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++; /* USCDiver voted for Chronos */
if(players[6] && players[3]) buses++; /* pede voted for Fiend */
if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++; /* Zeriel voted for AllWalker */
if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++; /* ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben */
if(players[10] && players[6]) buses++; /* Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede */
if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++; /* Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos */
if(players[12] && players[3]) buses++; /* cardinal_fang voted for Fiend */
if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++; /* cardinal_fang voted for Chronos */
/* Count number of un-buses-- Voting to save a fellow Scum */
if(players[0] && players[2]) buses--; /* Telcontar saved Chronos */
if(players[1] && players[3]) buses--; /* AllWalker saved Fiend */
if(players[1] && players[2]) buses--; /* AllWalker saved Chronos */
if(players[2] && players[3]) buses--; /* Chronos saved Fiend */
if(players[6] && players[2]) buses--; /* pede saved Chronos */
if(players[7] && players[2]) buses--; /* Scuba_Ben saved Chronos */
if(players[8] && players[3]) buses--; /* Zeriel saved Fiend */
if(players[9] && players[3]) buses--; /* ShadowFacts saved Fiend */
if(players[11] && players[3]) buses--; /* storyteller saved Fiend */
if(players[11] && players[2]) buses--; /* storyteller saved Chronos */
if((min_scum<=n_scum)&&(n_scum<=max_scum)&&(buses<=max_bus)) /* Throw out all scenarios with the wrong number of Scum, or too many buses */
/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
/* if(players[2] == 0) */ /* Assume Chronos Town */
if(players[4] == 0) /* Assume Meeko Town */
{
total_scenarios++;
/* Output all scenarios */
for(i=0;i<13;i++) {
if(players* == 0) printf("%s",names*);
if(players* == 1) {
printf("%s",names*);
score*++;
}
}
printf("
");
}
}
/* Output scores */
fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
for(i=0;i<13;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s %d
",names*,score*);
return(0);
}
[/spoiler]I recommend redirecting output, or it’ll spit out all of the possible scenarios over hundreds of lines. Once more information comes in and the number of players decreases, the number of possibilities will become more manageable. The final scores are output to stderr, not stdout, so they’ll still show up after redirection.
The results, without the assumption that I am innocent:
Total number of possibilities: 1266
684 [this one should be listed as Telcontar; as I said there’s a bit of a glitch there]
AllWalker 768
Chronos 968
Imaginary Fiend 742
Meeko 0
USCDiver 626
pedescribe 586
Scuba Ben 690
Zeriel 618
ShadowFacts 550
Jimmy Chitwood 484
storyteller 768
cardinal_fang 498
The results again, but this time with the assumption added that I am Town:
Total number of possibilities: 298
170 [again, this should be labeled Telcontar]
AllWalker 244
Chronos 0
Imaginary Fiend 234
Meeko 0
USCDiver 228
pedescribe 126
Scuba Ben 190
Zeriel 138
ShadowFacts 96
Jimmy Chitwood 100
storyteller 200
cardinal_fang 98
Yes, I’m quite aware that this does not make me look very good (effectively, my program finds my rescue from lynching, as well as my involvement in Ichini’s lynch, just as suspicious as you all must find it), but that’s what the numbers say. From my point of view, this makes ShadowFacts, cardinal_fang, and Jimmy Chitwood look pretty good, and suggests that in addition to my suspicion of Imaginary Fiend and storyteller, I ought to also look closely at AllWalker and USCDiver.
That would be funny in many ways. In the last game I moderated, one of the characters was Vincent, The Dog Who Knows Things.
That said, I would not consider Vincent to be a major character.
And without impeaching the perfection of LostPedia, I stand by my assertion that Rose and Bernard are much more “major” characters than Nikki and Paulo, who were one-shot characters and haven’t appeared on the show at all in more than two years.
How are you planning to determine that?
Ugh. I think I need a sabbatical. I’m getting way too frustrated by playing this game lately. So many players are so determined to avoid doing anything that might, conceivably, in some context and in some way, help the Scum, that we’re collectively unwilling to do anything at all. There’s this crushing anxiety; we’ve become so determined to consider every possibility that it paralyzes everything.
Feh. I’ll be around tomorrow (Thursday), and will try to finish my analysis then. After that, I’ll be in Baltimore and DC (baseball road trip!) through Sunday night, so I’ll miss the beginning of Day Three, if I am alive for it, until Monday morning.
Oh, I should also mention how to add things like detective claims, in case I’m not still alive to do that if it comes up. Let’s say, for example, that Telcontar (player 0 on the list) claims Detective, and says that AllWalker (player 1) is Scum and Chronos (player 2) is Town. We then have two known statements:
If Telcontar is Town then AllWalker is Scum
and
If Telcontar is Town then Chronos is Town
So for any scenario to be valid, either Telcontar is Scum or AllWalker is Scum, and either Telcontar is Scum or Chronos is Town. So you’d add the following two lines in the “other assumptions” section of the code:
if((players[0] == 1) || (players[1] == 1))
if((players[0] == 1) || (players[2] == 0))
This will restrict it to only consider scenarios consistent with the fact of the claim. A Mason claim can be treated like two Detective claims, or more simply by something like
if(players[0] == players[1])
for a claim that Telcontar and AllWalker are Masons.
And as people are killed or otherwise verified one way or the other, you can just add statements asserting what they are. For instance, if Telcontar and AllWalker are both killed toNight, and Telcontar comes up Scum and AllWalker comes up Town, then you’d add the lines
if(players[0] == 1)
if(players[1] == 0)
I…what? This game has been more active than the last two or three, and there’s been some wild and crazy tactics in play.
I just feel that Scum are over the top organized this game.
I think we need NEW info, and need to, heh, go to town with it.
too bad that info only comes with loss of players.
when does night end?
note: i’ll be much less active than usual after tomorrow. Going away with my girlfriend for friday and saturday and moving monday and tuesday. I’ll get certainly read and get a vote in Tomorrow, but don’t expect my usual level of posting.
oh, Chronos, can you rerun the program looking at all votes, not just end of day votes?
At the risk of pissing off storyteller, this information could help the Scum. Players whose names are not on this list could be leapt on as Scum, and the Scum could use this as a datapoint to be used against innocent Townies. This is especially true if the Scum have aliases in the above list - with all the characters in the show, there is no reason to think that Mahaloth would have used each and every one of these names. If he had skipped just one or two, this gives Scum with very powerful aliases.
**Day Three will begin on Friday, June 26, at Noon Eastern. Any Night Actions must be in by 11:59 AM on Friday. **
These are not ways in which the information could help the Scum. These are a way in which we could misuse the information, and a way in which the information isn’t perfect, respectively.