Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

I agree with you, and I think anyone who has followed Lost would, but I thought posting the list from LostPedia would be helpful, as it is a neutral source.

I’m going to think about it for a bit. It’s nighttime, so I don’t feel a big rush, and I’d like to let it percolate in my head. Just because you think it’s a good idea with no downside, doesn’t mean it is.

Quoth Telcontar:

I can, but it’ll take a bit more time (entering in all of the votes is the most time-consuming part of the program). Expect this some time this evening. Should I weight them less than the Day-end votes?

Quoth storyteller:

“We”? AllWalker was talking about how the Scum could use that information.

I’m not sure If I like this. **
**
Storyteller
: Explanation on how you meant the word “misuse” please.

Chronos: Explanation on why you (apparently) are trying to smudge Storyteller, please? The way I read it, the first part (that you left off) seems to address Scum. The second half seems to imply Town only. I won’t elaborate, as this will bias the answer storyteller has to give.

FTR: I Actually see Allwalker’s point here. Believe it or not. I think it is information that is a bit further down from the surface, but I think it is a valid point to still not claim. Scum win when they control the vote, correct?** On night 2, they could probably care less what town they NK, as long as they get an NK.** As far as I know, scum always get to NK,

So glad I can’t vote right now. This is confusing me.

You’re kidding, right? You seriously think storyteller slipped and was talking about how his team of scum could misuse the information? That is an unbelievable reach. :dubious:

False. AllWaker said this:

The Scum are not capable of “leaping on” anyone without substantial help from the lot of us. If the information from my survey were to be used to railroad someone with a minor character name, on the basis of that information alone, that would be us, as a Town, misusing the information. The Scum may certainly aid and abet us in this misuse, but it would be our own responsibility.

The fact that the bad guys can encourage us to use a tool poorly does not mean it’s a bad tool or an inherently harmful one.

Shadow, so you agree with my take on it?

I think it is fair to ask both parties what they are attempting to do here. Story and Chronos both.

And now, just Chronos.

What is the likelihood that Mahaloth did NOT use all of the names on “Main” characters? A step from this, if he did NOT, could then be in a place to offer the remaining names to the scum, when he gave them second aliases?

OK, yeah, that was a little too hair-trigger of me there. Still, on storyteller’s idea, my main concern is how much of a clear divide is there between main characters and not-so-main characters, and where that divide is. If there were precisely 13 good-aligned characters who appeared in every show and everyone else was either evil or in one episode each, then a name claim would make sense, even with Scum aliases, because Mahaloth would have given the 13 good, common names to the real Townies and have been forced to pick minor characters for the Scum aliases. If, on the other hand, the 5th- or 10th-biggest character were only slightly more represented than the 20th-biggest character, then we’d have to second-guess which characters Mahaloth specifically considered must-haves for the game.

OK, I’ve thought about it, and since Mahaloth has stated that he’s already given the aliases to scum, then I cannot see any upside for scum in revealing whether I am on the list. They’re going to use the names provided by Mahaloth no matter what.

However, I realize that I have added a complication by posting a slightly different list than storyteller. If someone says that they are on one or the other, it could give some info about which role they might not be. So to be complete and avoid any “which list are you talking about” problems, we should combine the lists, which results in:

  1. Jack
  2. Locke
  3. Jin
  4. Charlie
  5. Claire
  6. Michael
  7. Walt
  8. Shannon
  9. Boone
  10. Ana Lucia
  11. Eko
  12. Libby
  13. Paulo
  14. Bernard
  15. Rose

I confirm that my name is on that list. I don’t think this really helps, but I’m now convinced that it can’t hurt, so there it is.

On the topic of Chronos’ number-crunch, I don’t cotton to numerical analyses of mafia games. I don’t like it when Pleonast does it, or Blaster Master, or whomever. As far as I’m concerned, this game cannot be condensed into numerical values, and these things always involve assumptions that can be wrong/manipulated. (And I say that as someone who came out pretty darn good on Chronos’ analysis, so I’m not trying to poo-poo something that implicates me).

Every time I poo poo something that implicates me, I try to pin it on the dog.

Whereas I, who posted the darned thing, look pretty darn bad in it. Ultimately, though, any method of finding scum must necessarily involve assumptions that can be wrong or manipulated: I just don’t think there’s any way around that. All my computer program does is provide a method for dealing with whatever assumptions are made systematically.

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Here’s some suggestions. I encourage you to challenge the easiest-to-disprove first:
[ol]
[li]I had a few spare minutes on the job, checked the thread, and saw that there was a tie and a request to break the tie.[/li][li]I am playing Mafia with my usual panache – and putting both feet in my mouth with every post.[/li][li]I’m impersonating Scum.[/li][/ol]
Which would you like to test first?

Don’t that just suck. Once again, I have chosen – poorly.

If you’ll excuse me, I’ll be getting sunscreen, mirrored shades, and several cold drinks. I expect to need them when I’m in the spotlight, if I survive to Dawn.

How does this help the Town?

I’m not sure if I have said this yet, or not. I think I might have touched on it.

Others share my view, I am fairly sure.

Can we stop with the entire Name Claim? I mean, I honestly believe that Scum are feeding this into the game, REPEATEDLY just to keep us off track when it comes to actually playing Mafia.

We are playing MAFIA, NOT the LOST highlight reel of season 1 and 2.


Thankfully, we have only lost ordinary / vanilla townies. We need to start playing the game before that changes. Scum get at least one NK everynight, right? It is only a matter of time before they get lucky.

Further on characters:
We have 13 people left alive, of whom nine are presumed to be genuine Town, and four are Scum who have been given Town names. storyteller and ShadowFacts have both posted lists of main characters, but that doesn’t address just how main those characters are. I just did some digging on IMDb, and looked up the potential Town names, and their number of appearances, which I will be using as a proxy for how major that character is. I realize that this isn’t foolproof (some high-number folks might just be in the background of a lot of episodes), but it’s at least objective, and it’s the best I (a non-watcher) can do:
99: Jack Shephard
99: James “Sawyer” Ford (claimed by Meeko)
99: Jin Kwon (presumably in the game if Sun was)
77: Claire Littleton
70: Charlie Pace
60: Michael Dawson
56: Desmond Hume (unclear alignment)
37: Vincent the Dog
34: Shannon Rutherford
32: Walt Lloyd
30: Miles Straum (freighter person)
29: Daniel Faraday (freighter person)
28: Mr. Eko (tail section)
28: Boone Carlyle
25: Ana-Lucia Cortez (tail section)
21: Libby (tail section)
19: Rose Henderson
18: Charlotte Lewis (freighter)
18: Bernard Nadler (tail section)
17: Danielle Rousseau (unknown)
17: Christian Shephard (not mentioned in storyteller’s character summary; I have no idea)
14: Nikki Fernandez (claimed by Imaginary Fiend)
14: Paulo
14: Frank Lapidus (freighter)

Assuming Imaginary Fiend is telling the truth, we’ve got characters in this game who have as few as 14 appearances. Even just counting the people on the plane, and removing all of the questionables (people of unclear alignment and the dog), we’ve got 17 names left for 13 live people, meaning that there’s enough names for everyone to have a name that’s at least as major as the one IF claimed. If we include freighter folk and those in storyteller’s “none of the above” category (plus the dog), then we’ve got 24 possible names. And the 9th-biggest clearly Town name has only 28 appearances, meaning that Town must have either some debatable names or relatively minor characters.

How did we arrive at 4 scum already?

Did I miss that memo?

Did I also miss the memo, that no one uses memos anymore?

Well, don’t do so on my account. I mean, it would have to be one really good case to convince me to vote for myself. :slight_smile:

Quoth storyteller:

storyteller, I note that you’re one of the ones who didn’t claim that your name matched your alignment (at least, not until it was too late to matter). Would you care to explain why not, in light of what you’ve said here? Was this a case of being “so determined to avoid doing anything that might help the Scum that you were unwilling to do anything at all”, or was there some other reason? Is it more or less reasonable for someone to decline to say whether they’re on your list than it is for someone to decline to say that their name and alignment match?