Attempted to investigate ShadowFacts, no response again. Unless and until we bag ourselves a Scum role blocker, I am vanilla. This spectacu-sucks.
Meeko has pointed every finger at me, and a few toes too. I’ll copy-paste my role PM. Would somebody please indicate any reason to believe or disbelieve the authenticity of my post:
As I said before, that appears identical to the previously posted role PMs.
Let’s try a completely different tack. Vote pedescribe, who hasn’t been a vote leader yet this game, and suddenly up & disappeared Yesterday.
Also, FOS cardinal_fang for his lack of posts. Even though he said upthread that he wouldn’t be on much during daytime, he hasn’t been around much during his evening either.
I’ll be back with another post in a minute to reply to ShadowFacts asking about my request to him.
Saith ShadowFacts in #768:
And in #840:
So I misremembered what SF said; he was going to review Fang’s case on Chronos.
Nevertheless: Would someone please cross-check my analyses of SF and Fang and offer guidance, so that my next analysis shows substantial improvement?
OK. Yikes. I’m really frustrated by this game, my play in this game, and the incredibly bad outcomes we’ve experienced so far. Game state analysis:
Eleven players remain.
If there are five Scum, and it is 6-5, this is lynch-or-lose*.
If there are four Scum, and it is 7-4, this is not lynch-or-lose unless the Scum have some kind of double kill up their sleeve or unless our Vig gets cute.
If there are three Scum, we’re not in particularly bad shape, but with what amounts to two Detectives (why, oh, why, was AllWalker against the mass name claim, particularly after the aliases were distributed? It would have turned him into a nearly-pure Detective) three Scum is looking pretty unlikely.
- probably. Actually, I don’t know if I’ll get an answer to this, but:
What does it mean for the Scum to “control the vote?” It has not been disclosed what the tiebreaking mechanism will be in the event of a tie, so if there are an equal number of Scum vs. Town, would the Scum “control the vote” at that point?
We need to pull out all the stops to nail Scum toDay. If there are Masons, they should give real consideration to the possibility of claiming (very especially if there are three). Two or three confirmed Townies at the outset of the Day dramatically increases our chances of nailing Scum here.
Back to work. picking up from post #990, one retrospective observation: of the five initial votes for Meeko, only pedescribe and BillMc have not been shown to be confirmed Town. If my initial guess that at least one of them was Scum is correct, then either pedescribe or BillMc is Scum.
Big “if,” though.
Anyway, when we left off, it was post #406, and we were here:
Meeko (3) : Pedescribe, BillMC, AllWalker,
Pedescribe (3): Jimmy, CardinalFang, Meeko
Imaginary Fiend (3): Tom Scud, Telcontar, Nanook
Ichini (2): Chronos, Zeriel
Telcontar (1): ShadowFacts
Immediately after this, AllWalker switches from Meeko to Ichini. Shortly thereafter, Meeko himself moves off pedescribe and onto BillMc.
Worth noting: as recounted in my post #990, at one point during Day One, pedescribe had as many as four votes and was a good candidate to get lynched. After this point, pedescribe will never again be under serious pressure, although no one has really given an active reason for their suspicion resolving. It’s like, ped came under pressure, and then we all just sort of… swung in a different direction.
Suppose a Town pedescribe, one who receives as many as four votes early in Day One, still hasn’t claimed, hasn’t done anything really to alleviate suspicion on him. Why wouldn’t the Scum collective have tried to move suspicion back in his direction at some point? At least enough to force him into a claim? From my vantage point Day One looks a bit like a successful redirect - we had someone on the hook early, then we swung off of that person in favor of going after two Townies and never came back.
Ichini himself votes Tom Scud. So does Imaginary Fiend. pedescribe unvotes Meeko, and comes back in with a vote against Imaginary Fiend less than one-half hour later, saying he is “really convinced by the case against [IF].”
Jimmy Chitwood unvotes pedescribe and votes Fiend at #462. He says that his “#1 just voted for [his] #2,” which he can’t reconcile with pedescribe being Scum, which, huh? Why not? cardinal_fang unvotes pedescribe and votes IF, too.
So in a relatively brief period of time, three players unvoted their current target (which was pedescribe in two instances) and voted IF. Fiend posts his very frustrated defense at #467. Oredigger adds a vote for Ichini, and then Jimmy goes back to pedescribe.
This is where the motion starts getting weird. We know that both main candidates at this point are Town, something the Scum knew at the time. For Day One, at least, their goal was complete - from this point forward we were basically certain to mislynch, and the only question was, which of the two would we mislynch? So I’d expect the Scum would have avoided going too far out of their way to swing the outcome here, possibly even moving their votes away from the main action (as Chitwood did).
On the other hand, as of this moment (post #472), Fiend has claimed vanilla and Ichini has not claimed. I would expect that if the Scum could gently, subtly tip things toward Ichini, they would - after all, as of #472 they don’t know whether Ichini is a power role or vanilla, and leaning on him a bit extra would be helpful.
Which is why my own post at #475 reads suspicious, of course, as I pushed Ichini for a role claim. I don’t regret this, because he had to claim in this circumstance to keep us from lynching a Doctor or what have you, but if I were an outside reader I would regard my #475 and many of my subsequent actions as suspicious. Not much I can do about it now.
Post #479, VOTE COUNT
Imaginary Fiend(5): Tom Scud, Telcontar, Nanook, Pedescribe, CardinalFang
Ichini(4): Chronos, Zeriel, AllWalker, Oredigger
Tom Scud(2): Ichini, Imaginary Fiend
Telcontar(1): ShadowFacts
BillMC(1): Meeko
Meeko(1): BillMC
Pedescribe(1): Jimmy Chitwood
Jimmy comes out at #480 deriding my call for a role claim. This is a pro-Town check-mark for him, because at this moment calling for a role claim is, oddly enough, something that would help both the Town and the Scum - but I can see where a Townie wouldn’t recognize it as pro-Town, but not where Scum wouldn’t recognize it as pro-Scum, if that makes sense.
ShadowFacts votes for Ichini, which puts the latter into a tie. Ichini votes for me. Then, I break the tie, putting Ichini into the lead.
And that’s basically it.
This was less illuminating than I’d hoped, but it leaves me feeling suspicious of pedescribe. More later.
Well, not quite entirely. You’re still keeping the Scum roleblocker busy. If you were out of the picture, then the role-blocker might be able to neutralize the Doctor or someone.
It seems to me that even without the mass-claim, it should be pretty easy to find an example of someone saying “I’m Town” to feed into the lie-detector. And he was a proponent of people saying whether their name matched their alignment.
As for the control-the-vote question, if we’re at 6-5, then it’s probably LyLo anyway: A mislynch would put us at 5-5, and then the night kill would leave us at 4-5, which is unambiguously a Scum win.
And I didn’t think that there would be five Scum in the game, but with two Detectives, it just might be plausible. If we are in fact at the point of desparation (if not toDay, then almost certainly toMorrow), then I’d like to point out that whomever stopped the night-kill yesterDay Night might be able to confirm someone: If it was a Doctor, for instance, then the Doctor knows that whomever e protected was Town. Which isn’t all that useful, since that person was probably either the Doctor emself or someone already widely suspected to be Town, but it might be something.
One thought to add, then I’m off for the weekend:
I’m as certain as I can be that Meeko is not the Vigilante / Psychopath. If Meeko had his own night-kill independent of Scum, I’d be Dead. I’m Alive, therefore I strongly doubt Meeko is the second killer.
I’d appreciate it if someone would post a list of who has claimed what character, just so we have a count of who has claimed.
Well, He was also “” Sinner Bulletproof “” last game, and did not do a damn thing with that, either.
If the both of you were scum, what else would you need to say here? Nothing.
The fishing doesn’t stop with you, does it Scuba?
Can someone compile a WOW on Allwalker, now that we know his role?
Remember, no more subbing from this point on. I can modkill someone if you want(let me know in purple) or you can kill(lynch) them if you all want, but I’m not subbing anyone in or out now.
Well, I would extend it if July 4 landed on Monday-Wed, but since this game has had a particularly low level of activity on Saturday(the 4th), I think for now, I’ll leave the game’s timing the way it is. Seems like every Saturday has been a holiday here. I am making sure the Old West game, which is next after this one, will have days running Mon-Friday. I’ve been surprised how many people are playing from work. Anyway, I’m leaving it.
**Survivors win when they have killed all the Others
The Others win when they can’t lose because there is more of them than Survivors, and they therefore control the vote. They can also control the vote if it is tied going into Night and a Night Kill will automatically give them superior numbers.**
OK, just getting caught up now. I’ve not read everything since the dawn post, but wanted to get some immediate thoughts down. Sucks to lose a power role, but I suppose it was inevitable and we’ve been pretty lucky on that score up to now. A couple things occur to me about AllWalker’s death.
First, I’ve never seen the Lie Detector role before. Looking at the mafiawiki description that Chronos posted, it seems like it operates kind of like a weak cop (under the Lynch All Liars rubric). Which of course throws a little doubt on storyteller’s claim of being an full investigator. Mahaloth said a couple of times that this was a pretty “straightforward” game. Would he have two investigative roles in such a game? Hard to say for sure (and I recognize that I’ve got some history with storyteller false claiming Cop and burning me that I am trying not to let color my thoughts in this game), but I have to throw it out there. His lack of results is not helpful in this regard, either.
Second, AllWalker was Miles Straume. Miles is a 4th and 5th season character and not a survivor of the original crash. To me, this puts the final nail in the coffin regarding the usefulness of a name claim. If Miles is Town (not to mention Nikki), then I don’t think there’s anything we can assume about “non-main character” claims.
Meeko claims to be Sawyer
Imaginary Fiend claims Nikki Fernandez, vanilla
Ichini claims Sun
Chronos claims Michael Dawson, vanilla
storyteller claims John Locke, detective, claims investigations of pede and Telcontar failed
Scuba_Ben claims Charlie Pace (vanilla)
AllWalker has only eighteen posts since the end of Night 1 (when I presume he would have gotten his first investigation results). In order:
598: Comments on two deaths; no mention of individual players
639: Comments on previous day’s voting; no mention of any then-living player
640: Comments on Tom’s case vs. Fiend, lists those who led to Ichini’s lynch, rehashes list of those who did not claim alignment match, doubts that all three of storyteller, Jimmy, and ShadowFacts are Scum
669: Corrects list to include Zeriel
672: Clarifies method behind list
677: Further discussion of list, denies cuddling with Zeriel
684: Doesn’t think Chronos is at all scummy
711: Defends against charge of being too friendly with Chronos
775: Votes Oredigger, thinks Chronos is far more likely Town than Scum
805: Advises for defensive voting
871: Defends Day 1 vote for Meeko, replies to questions from Meeko, says unsupported gut feelings are bad
874: Fluff
918: Criticizes storyteller’s list of main characters
950: (not an AllWalker post; start of Day 3)
984: Happy about no nightkill
1043: Of vote leaders, Chronos and storyteller far more likely to be Town
1045: Votes Scuba Ben
1051: Agrees with Telcontar that he thinks Chronos is innocent
1159: “What a mess”. No real content
Admittedly I’m biased, but I can’t see anything in there that might be a breadcrumb for anyone but myself or storyteller. There might also be some breadcrumbs hidden in code (he was a detective last game, too, and reported his results in acrostics), but I’m not going to be the one to go looking for them.
Should Sawyer-Nash get in on this?
Well, I guess I will do it until I find equilibrium.
Are we at a point now, where we should look at people who were unvoted at the last minute? [We would also, at some point look at the people who unvoted them, but, I believe that the first population is smaller.
We’ve been looking at those people. That was a significant part of the case against Imaginary Fiend, and that didn’t turn out so well. Alternately, there’s me or storyteller, but AllWalker seems to have cleared us.
And if you think you can find breadcrumbs hidden in code, go ahead. I would expect that they would be in the first post AllWalker made after the start of each Day, but they might be later in the Day, too.
I am looking at
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11259957&postcount=598
598
currently.
On first pass, “regular” acrosstic, nothing sticks out immediately.
Will get back to you guys.
From :
It is also possible that it was a proTown voluntary Vig, though why they would target anyone on Night 1 is a mystery.
I can make out " I am a VIP town " and the word " wait ". Among other letters.
This is going to be a LOT harder than we thought.
- We are biased in looking at what we find. I don’t know how this could prove to be a problem, but, it is something we need to address. If we found Breadcrumbs from Allwalker while he was still alive, it would be different, than now. The least of which being that we are closer to ly lo. [This is basic fact.]
2.My software I was using to do anagrams politely told me my trial period was over with. Go figure.
NETA :
Do we really want me driving the Anagram search bus?
I mean, I am probably, more often than not, two steps away from looking at tea leaves, or something.