I was thinking goat entrails, but yeah, I don’t think it’s worth our time looking for insanely complicated hidden clues. A skilled breadcrumber is one that leaves clues that are easy to find in retrospect but less obvious before a role is revealed. Unfortunately in a lot of cases, this leads to the player in question being night killed.
Lie Detector and the Cop such that Storyteller is, both strike me as incredibly weak. I would call the apparent Vig weak as well, but, thankfully, the vig is not compulsory. That would really suck for us, if the vig was compulsory. :eek:
I am not trying to fish here. But, At this point, do we even know if we have a doctor?
I mean, it looks like all of the power roles, suck.
How do the power roles suck? We (apparently) have a cop, a lie detector who was just as powerful as the cop, a voluntary vigilante, and a doctor (well, assuming that’s why there was no kill night 2). Not a bad line up of power roles. More than I had expected given that we were told the power roles would be minimal.
Look at it from my perspective, Telcontar, I have yet to see a proof of concept on this game. This game can be won, so I hear. I have yet to see it. So far, this looks a LOT like CrimsonII
NETA : For that matter, I don’t think I have EVER seen a scum get lynched. In any game, let alone the two I have played.
A cop is about the most powerful role there is in this game. AllWalker got killed before he could be really useful (you want to claim when you’ve got about three investigations of living players), and storyteller has been consistently blocked, so we’re not getting as much benefit out of them as we might, but then, if you always knew how it would go, it wouldn’t be much of a game.
I think that AllWalker’s trust of storyteller and I qualifies, especially since in post 871 he says that gut feelings should always be supported by reasons, but then states no reasons for trusting us.
Speaking of which, quoth ShadowFacts:
It would throw doubt on storyteller, except for the fact that it looks like AllWalker breadcrumbed his innocence. FOS ShadowFacts
I’m mobile.
Look at day 1 voters voting meeko again? I agree here.
More thoughts on number of Scum and game balance: One standard method for balancing games among the SDMB etc. crowd is to use a point system devised by JSexton: You add up all the points for both sides, and they should be about the same amount. We know we had 17 players to start with, and out of that, we have or suspect we have the following:
Town side:
Day start: +1
Effectively two detectives: +8
A Doctor: +3
A voluntary Vigilante: +2? (it’s not listed in the point system, but it has to be better than a compulsory Vig, listed at 1.5)
Total +14, plus 1 per vanilla
Scum side:
A role-blocker: +6.5
plus 4.5 for each vanilla Scum.
And 12 players without power roles. If we have a total of 13 Town and 4 Scum, that would mean Town has 9 vanilla members, and Scum has 3 vanilla members, for a total point value of 23 Town, 20 Scum. If on the other hand we have a total of 12 Town and 5 Scum, that would mean Town has 8 vanillas and Scum has 4, for a total point value of 22 Town, 24.5 Scum. Both are balanced about the same amount, so I think both might actually be equally plausible. Which means that we have to very seriously consider the possibility that we’re at LyLo now.
OK, so what do we do about it? In the worst-case scenario, we have 6 Town, 5 Scum left alive right now. Out of those, Meeko is probably confirmed by his pre-aliases name claim, and I think that storyteller and I are confirmed by AllWalker. In addition, we appear to have a Doctor (presumably Jack) and a Vigilante, both of which can possibly confirm themselves by claiming, unless we have a counter-claim. In addition, Jin Kwan is probably in the game and is probably Town, since he’s been in every episode and we already know his wife Sun (Ichini) was Town, so if Jin isn’t the Vig, then we can potentially confirm all six Townies. Therefore, I think it is now time to make a full mass-claim, of names and roles. Are we agreed on this?
In other news: I’ve finished the final modification to my computer program. The way I’m doing it now, is I’m counting all votes made by Town players, including votes which were not in place at the end of the day, but only end-of-day votes by Scum players. I’m then assuming that the Town have voted for Scum a larger proportion of times than Scum have voted for Scum. I believe this is now the most powerful analysis that can be made of who voted for whom. The completed code:
[noparse]#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 13 /* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 4 /* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4 /* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define scum_votes 12 /* Number of Scum votes cast so far */
main()
{
int players[n_players]; /* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
unsigned int players_binary;
unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
char names[n_players][20] = {"Telcontar", "AllWalker", "Chronos", "Imaginary Fiend", "Meeko", "USCDiver", "pedescribe", "Scuba Ben", "Zeriel", "ShadowFacts", "Jimmy Chitwood", "storyteller", "cardinal_fang"};
int n_scum;
int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
int i;
int score[n_players];
int total_scenarios = 0;
int town_votes;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */
for(players_binary=0; players_binary < 8192; players_binary++) {
players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
}
n_scum = 0;
buses = 0;
attacks = 0;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
if(players* == 1) n_scum++; /* Count the number of Scum */
}
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
town_votes = 8; // Ichini, Tom, Nanook, and Oredigger cast 8 votes
if(!players[0]) town_votes += 6; // Telcontar cast 6 votes
if(!players[1]) town_votes += 6; // AllWalker cast 6 votes
if(!players[2]) town_votes += 6; // Chronos cast 6 votes
if(!players[3]) town_votes += 2; // Imaginary Fiend cast 2 votes
if(!players[4]) town_votes += 9; // Meeko cast 9 votes
if(!players[5]) town_votes += 4; // USCDiver cast 4 votes
if(!players[6]) town_votes += 5; // pede cast 5 votes
if(!players[7]) town_votes += 8; // Scuba_Ben cast 8 votes
if(!players[8]) town_votes += 4; // Zeriel cast 4 votes
if(!players[9]) town_votes += 6; // ShadowFacts cast 6 votes
if(!players[10]) town_votes += 4; // Jimmy cast 4 votes
if(!players[11]) town_votes += 6; // storyteller cast 6 votes
if(!players[12]) town_votes += 4; // cardinal_fang cast 4 votes
/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for Fiend
if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++; // Fiend voted for ShadowFacts
if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++; // Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver
if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++; // Meeko voted for cardinal_fang
if(players[5] && players[4]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for Meeko
if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(players[6] && players[3]) buses++; // pede voted for Fiend
if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++; // Zeriel voted for AllWalker
if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++; // ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben
if(players[10] && players[6]) buses++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede
if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos
if(players[12] && players[3]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for Fiend
if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(players[1] && players[7]) buses++; // AllWalker voted for Scuba
if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(players[8] && players[2]) buses++; // Zeriel voted for Chronos
if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++; // Jimmy voted for Chronos
if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
/* Count number of attacks-- End of day */
if(!players[0] && players[3]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for Fiend
if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++; // Fiend voted for ShadowFacts
if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver
if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for cardinal_fang
if(!players[5] && players[4]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for Meeko
if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(!players[6] && players[3]) attacks++; // pede voted for Fiend
if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++; // Zeriel voted for AllWalker
if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++; // ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben
if(!players[10] && players[6]) attacks++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede
if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++; // Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[3]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for Fiend
if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
if(players[3]) attacks += 2; // Tom Scud and Nanook (known Town) voted Fiend
if(players[11]) attacks++; // Ichini (known Town) voted storyteller
if(players[2]) attacks++; // Oredigger (known Town) voted Chronos
if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(!players[1] && players[7]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted for Scuba
if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for Chronos
if(!players[8] && players[2]) attacks++; // Zeriel voted for Chronos
if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++; // Jimmy voted for Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for Chronos
/* Count number of buses-- Withdrawn votes */
/* if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(players[1] && players[4]) buses++; // AllWalker voted for Meeko
if(players[2] && players[3]) buses++; // Chronos voted for Fiend
if(players[4] && players[6]) buses++; // Meeko voted for pede
if(players[4] && players[10]) buses++; // Meeko voted for Jimmy
if(players[4] && players[3]) buses++; // Meeko voted for Fiend
if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++; // USCDiver voted for AllWalker
if(players[6] && players[2]) buses++; // pede voted for Chronos
if(players[6] && players[4]) buses++; // pede voted for Meeko
if(players[7] && players[9]) buses++; // Scuba voted for Shadowfacts
if(players[7] && players[8]) buses++; // Scuba voted for Zeriel
if(players[9] && players[0]) buses++; // Shadow voted for Telcontar
if(players[10] && players[3]) buses++; // Jimmy voted for Fiend
if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++; // storyteller voted for Chronos
if(players[12] && players[6]) buses++; // cardinal_fang voted for pede
if(players[0] && players[11]) buses++; // Telcontar voted for storyteller
if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++; // Chronos voted for storyteller
if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++; // Meeko voted for USCDiver
if(players[4] && players[7]) buses++; // Meeko voted for Scuba
if(players[7] && players[2]) buses++; // Scuba voted for Chronos
if(players[7] && players[11]) buses++; // Scuba voted for storyteller
if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++; // Shadow voted for Scuba
*/
/* Count number of attacks-- Withdrawn votes */
if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for pede
if(!players[1] && players[4]) attacks++; // AllWalker voted for Meeko
if(!players[2] && players[3]) attacks++; // Chronos voted for Fiend
if(!players[4] && players[6]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for pede
if(!players[4] && players[10]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for Jimmy
if(!players[4] && players[3]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for Fiend
if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted for AllWalker
if(!players[6] && players[2]) attacks++; // pede voted for Chronos
if(!players[6] && players[4]) attacks++; // pede voted for Meeko
if(!players[7] && players[9]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for Shadowfacts
if(!players[7] && players[8]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for Zeriel
if(!players[9] && players[0]) attacks++; // Shadow voted for Telcontar
if(!players[10] && players[3]) attacks++; // Jimmy voted for Fiend
if(!players[11] && players[2]) attacks++; // storyteller voted for Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[6]) attacks++; // cardinal_fang voted for pede
if(players[4]) attacks += 2; // Tom Scud and Oredigger (known Town) voted Meeko
if(!players[0] && players[11]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted for storyteller
if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++; // Chronos voted for storyteller
if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for USCDiver
if(!players[4] && players[7]) attacks++; // Meeko voted for Scuba
if(!players[7] && players[2]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for Chronos
if(!players[7] && players[11]) attacks++; // Scuba voted for storyteller
if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++; // Shadow voted for Scuba
if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum)) /* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
if((attacks)*scum_votes > (buses)*town_votes) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */
/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
if(players[2] == 0) /* Assume Chronos Town */
if(players[4] == 0) /* Assume Meeko Town */
if(players[3] == 0) /* Fiend was Town */
if(players[1] == 0) /* AllWalker was Town */
if(players[11] == 0) /* AllWalker breadcrumbed storyteller */
{
total_scenarios++;
/* Output all scenarios */
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
if(players* == 0) printf("%s",names*);
if(players* == 1) {
printf("%s",names*);
score*++;
}
}
printf("
");
}
}
/* Output scores */
fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s %d
",names*,score*);
return(0);
}[/noparse]
And the results:
If there are 4 Scum:
Total number of possibilities: 58
Telcontar 26
AllWalker 0
Chronos 0
Imaginary Fiend 0
Meeko 0
USCDiver 34
pedescribe 28
Scuba Ben 27
Zeriel 31
ShadowFacts 27
Jimmy Chitwood 27
storyteller 0
cardinal_fang 32
If there are 5 Scum:
Total number of possibilities: 47
Telcontar 26
AllWalker 0
Chronos 0
Imaginary Fiend 0
Meeko 0
USCDiver 32
pedescribe 26
Scuba Ben 32
Zeriel 31
ShadowFacts 29
Jimmy Chitwood 28
storyteller 0
cardinal_fang 31
In other words, I don’t think that just looking at who voted for whom is really enough to base decisions on, since there isn’t really much variation in those numbers.
Which makes sense, because all we’ve killed is non-scum.
Oh, and I continue to have no objection to a claim. I can’t imagine how it could hurt at this point.
Still mobile
Mass claim?!
Uhh can it wait till after today?!?!
Neta after the 4th. For. " today". Claims to start on Sunday?
Well, congratulations on convincing yourself that **AllWalker **breadcrumbed your innocence. I particularly enjoyed this sequence in that you start out by saying that **AllWalker ***seems *to have cleared you, then you *think *he trusted you, and by the last quote both you and **storyteller **are both confirmed. You’ll forgive the rest of us for being a little less certain, I am sure. :dubious:
The fact is, we don’t know if or what **AllWalker **may or may not have breadcrumbed. I thought you presented a fairly convincing case about AllWalker’s continued support of you, but then you apparently decided that those comments confirmed you. Sorry, they don’t. They may be a point in your favor, but it ain’t confirmation, my friend, and the fact that you are pushing so aggressively to make it seem that way is quite suspicious to me.
No, we don’t know for certain that those were breadcrumbs. But at some point, you have to take the best guess you have, and I think that right now, our best guess is that storyteller and I are both Town.
Between this and your smudge of storyteller that I’ve already fingered, it looks like you’re just trying to befuddle Town. Which is enough for me to
Vote ShadowFacts.
OK, to follow up on something I mentioned earlier:
Day 1, Chronos said:
On Day 2, storyteller said (helpfully enough):
Also on Day 2, Chronos said:
AllWalker posted his lists on day 2 as well, which are possibly instructive in that they demonstrate that he could have been looking at the two aforementioned at this point. In other words, there is evidence that AllWalker could have very reasonably and smartly tested the above statements on the two nights for which he was alive (either Chronos first and Story second, or somebody first and Chronos second, since it doesn’t appear that there’s a good “smoking gun” from Story for night one).
This is at least a very strong suggestion to me that AllWalker investigated Chronos and found his story to check out. Therefore, I’m moving on to pedescribe, who I still think looks very funky. There’s also the fact that he hasn’t been posting much, so there’s not much to check; I think such a low level of activity has to be looked at at least with a skeptical eye given the dexterity with which Town has thus far fucked itself in the face.
And further, I think we can assume that whoever AllWalker investigated, he did not find a lie, or he would have, if not exposing it outright, at least be vociferous about it. Since that didn’t occur, it stands to reason that the fruits of his investigations are to be found in statements in support of some two posters’ veracity, and not in any criticisms.
So, just to be clear, your two points against me are:
- “Our” (who is “our,” by the way?) best guess is that you and storyteller are Town.
and - I “smudged” storyteller.
Boy, that’s a rock-solid case. You almost got me to vote for myself! 
I’ve been suspicious of pedescribe for awhile (note my vote yesterday after story claimed). Absent better alternatives, that’s my lean.
Not sure what to make of the chronos-shadowfacts pissing contest. My guess is that a fairly minor disagreement is getting a tad personalized. Oh well.
Jimmy: thanks for finding those posts. I had been thinking of going looking for similar myself and am glad that someone else has confirmed they exist.
It would seem that we grow ever closer to a Mass Claim here.
I am Sawyer. And, despite what happens after the line here, I think I have played a mighty fine game this time around, compared to Crimson. I will find my game here, I know I will. Don’t hold the following against me, outside of Mafia.
06-11-2009, 10:04 AM
Mahaloth Mahaloth is online now
Charter Member
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: 地球
Posts: 6,689
Lost Role PM
You are James “Sawyer” Ford(usually called Sawyer).
There was a terrible air plane crash.
You don’t remember a lot about the actual crash, but when you awoke, you were lost on an island. You have recently begun to socialize with the other survivors, but you don’t really know them all that well. You have a very strong feeling that some of the people with you are…evil, and may not have even been on the plane. You have no idea who they are, but you do know that you will not feel safe until they are dead.
Something no one else knows, however, is that you have a gun.*****
I figure that Town needs this information now. If I were scum, would I say this much?
I am Sawyer, I claimed Sawyer before the Aliases were given. Sawyer fits the canon of being the Vig. Sawyer is a Survivor. Yadda Yadda Yadda.
**Town, you KNOW I am town. **
Would you guys expect “Meeko” to ““know”” to keep it in his pants? Further, I claimed Sawyer that night. I figured that I was all but dead on Night 1. Having survived a near lynch, I felt I would not make it to Dawn. [After All, I just claimed Sawyer, I would have thought, that the name alone would have sealed my fate.
I had to shoot on Night 1. I did not want to waste the Lynch survival, just to die at night, and leave the game a dead Vig with no NKs.
I had very little to go on. From that, I made an educated list.
Tom Scud was a random shot.
I rolled thousands of simulated dice, flipped hundreds of simulated coins. Trust me when I tell you, you other guys didn’t even come close.
And yes, Ghost of Allwalker, we have been here before. I know this song and dance as well. But, this is where we differ.
**
- I admit upfront, that I am leaving out part of my claim.** Because I am obviously NOT a compulsory vig, I was given a limited number of bullets. The part I am leaving out includes the total number of bullets I held at the start of the game. I don’t think it would help Town for me to disclose this.
Scuba, Give me more credit than that. I’m not about to shoot someone that I am FOSsing left right and center. FTR Jimmy and Pede, you guys also got a pass on the same logic here.
If EVERYONE asks me to post the rest of my claim I will.
All I know is that I am Sawyer, I am Survivor / Town, and I have a Gun.