Meeko, just for your information, if you kill even one extra Townie toNight without also taking out Scum we will wake at, essentially, lynch-or-lose in spite of our success toDay. Same if you take out two Townies. If you happen to kill three Townies I think it may be game over (depending on what happens in case of a tie vote, of course).
Be careful.
<mrburns>
Excellent!
</mrburns>
Most excellent, indeed.
As far as I’m concerned, barring the insane conspiracy theories, that means we have a nice big semi-confirmed list of Meeks, Story, Pedescribe, and maybe Chronos. Looking good for the (inadvertently due to airline crash) visiting team. =)
Woot! Finally!
“or join us”? please tell me this game doesn’t have a recruiting function.
If it does, we’re doubly screwed because **Storyteller **will transmogrify into Mr. Furious. (not that I’d blame him)
I’ll make that question official.
Is there any form of recruiting in this game?
And just for the record, unless I’m missing something, the argument for storyteller being (semi-)confirmed is the same as for me, right? AllWalker apparently breadcrumbed both of us.
Quoth storyteller:
True, but it’d be exceedingly unlikely for Meeko to hit three Townies and no Scum.
Do we not want to talk about who should/shouldn’t be targeted? I’m amenable to correction but I’m not sure I can think of a way that discussing the unconfirmed pool at this point will give the scum an advantage. I guess we don’t want Meeko to say exactly how many shots he has (?) but other than that is there any reason not to make sure we use that tool to our best advantage?
Claims
Power roles
Storyteller0910 - John Locke - DETECTIVE
pedescribe - Jack Shepard - ROLE BLOCKER
Meeko - James “Sawyer” Ford - VIGILANTE
No claimed role
Believed confirmed by AllWalker
Chronos - Michael Dawson - VANILLA
Unknown, alphabetized for your convenience
cardinal_fang - Claire Littleon - VANILLA
Jimmy Chitwood - Rose Nadler - VANILLA
Scuba_Ben - Charlie Pace - VANILLA
Telecontar - Ana Lucia Cortez - VANILLA [del]HOT (NO CLAIM)[/del]
USCDiver - Daniel Faraday - VANILLA - later season, slightly different role PM
Zeriel - Mister Eko - VANILLA
I had some various thoughts, but it duplicates stuff previously posted.
I should clarify that being hot is not a super power. I’m vanilla.
In reply to Jimmy: Instead of going through post history looking for probable Scum, let’s go through post history and look for probable Town. If our four generally-accepted-as-Town come to a consensus on someone being probable Town, then neither pede nor Meeko needs to target that person.
In short, I think who should be considered a valid target is all six Unknowns, which unfortunately includes me; who should not be targeted is worth serious discussion and analysis.
Updating the color-coded lists in 1446 by storyteller
I note that all six remaining Unknowns have votes out in this later post; the only one missing was the late, unlamented ShadowFacts. From what we now know, Telcontar, Chronos (presumed Town), Zeriel, and USCDiver were voting for Town; I was voting for an Unknown.
Most interestingly, Jimmy and cardinal_fang were voting for our presumed-Town, Chronos. Time to go back and closely review their reasons.
It’s possible someone spotted AllWalker’s breadcrumb and went after him, or spotted the crumb and went after Chronos. Thoughts?
News to me.
I’m fine with me being one of the people being targeted at night; it makes good sense and I think killing the people with my general set of traits (shit voting record, no powers, not crumbed) is pretty likely to hit multiple scum.
I’ll be very clear - what I am not OK with is everyone just sitting around and then finding out tomorrow that Meeko did something insane, killed everyone who has disagreed with him, and blasted away at a bunch of townies. There, I said it.
That’s dangerous. To the extent that it’s possible to know what behaviours are Townish, the Scum know those behaviours are Townish, too, so there’s nothing to stop a Scum from behaving exactly as e thinks a genuine Town would act. If there’s even one Scum pulling off such an act, and we fall for it, we’ll never lynch that Scum, and eventually lose.
Oh, and I do agree that pedescribe should probably try to block Scum this turn, rather than trying to protect Town. The Scum will probably target one of the three power roles this turn, and we don’t want any of them blocked. He’s got at best a 1 in 3 chance of doing some good by targeting one of the confirmed, but is basically guaranteed to do some harm. On the other hand, if he targets in the unconfirmed pool, he’s also got a 1 in 3 chance of doing good (by hitting either whomever the Scum have designated to do the killing toNight, or by counter-blocking the role-blocker), with no chance of ding any harm. And if the Scum have some other active power role, then the odds improve for targeting in the unconfirmed pool, but stay the same for trying to protect.
OK, things I believe:
I really hope I’m right about #4.
NETA: On second thought, there is one potential downside to pede targeting in the unconfirmed pool: He might save a Scum from Meeko. On the whole, though, I think this is a minor enough issue to not worry about (it’s certainly a better outcome than saving all the Scum by blocking Meeko himself, for instance).
Expansion on Chronos: pedescribe’s minimal odds of doing something good by blocking an Unknown are 1 in 3; if there are three Scum remaining, the odds are 1 in 2; four Scum left, 2 in 3. The worst outcome is that pede blocks the same player that storyteller investigates and Meeko shoots – which isn’t that bad an outcome: Either the player gets investigated or shot. It’s just that all three power roles targeting the same player gives us the least possible information – but it definitely gives us information.
NETA to respond to storyteller: You’re quite right on #3. All Chronos and I are doing is posting odds.
You’re also right on #2. Chronos has to be considered Unknown until confirmed; we can’t be certain of the breadcrumb.
In #4, I don’t mind Meeko ending the game by killing a bunch of Town if he also kills all the Scum. 
AllWalker did absolutely nothing with his power, then?
As I stated before, just reading this quote, That would not surprised me. Allwalker was Bulletproof in Crimson, and didn’t do a damn thing there, either.
I’m sorry, I can’t read what you wrote, because you asked us all to stop dwelling on Crimson grudges, didn’t you?