I don’t think so,at least in one instance. Nikki Fernandez (Imaginary Fiend) was by all accounts a minor character who turned up town.
Not sure if this proves the case. All squares are rectangles, not all rectangles are squares.
You can’t point to a square and say that all rectangles must look like this.
I think the case to prove, is if we have a major character, that turns out to be scum. The reverse, while proven, doesn’t do much of anything, on helping to identify scum.
Correct, this proves nothing. Telcontar was asking if we could assume that scum were minor/later characters. Knowing that town may also be in that mix also does not help us hunt scum using that logic.
I suppose I find myself unamused by the contention that my net contribution has been unhelpful or ambiguous in any way. Although I AM amused that it’s coming from Jimmy.
As I’m the one who observed that we need to be fishing in the unconfirmed pool, I obviously am going to look there.
The problem is, that we have a lot of innuendo and half-baked theories floating around, none of which appear have any traction. And we’ve also got a number of people laying relatively low in the unconfirmed pool.
I’m tempted to OMGUS Jimmy for lack of a better option and see if I can post more tomorrow.
As a matter of fact, I’m going to give into that temptation.
vote Jimmy Chitwood
I don’t understand why you posted it then.
I did not see this addressed and will take a crack at it; please check my math. Based on storyteller’s analysis and assuming four scum (note that I have added the Day Start bonus as described on the wiki page):
TOWN
Detective - 4 pts
Lie Dectector - 3.5 pts (generous)
Paranoid Doctor - 2.5 pts (being generous)
One-Shot Vig - 1.5 pts
9 x 1 Vanilla Town - 9 pts.
Day Start - 1 pts.
Total - 21.5 pts.
SCUM Scenario 1
Roleblocker - 6 pts.
3 x 4.5 Vanilla Scum - 13.5 pts.
Total - 19.5 pts.
SCUM Scenario 2
Roleblocker - 6 pts.
Godfather - 7 pts.
2 x 4.5 Vanilla Scum - 9 pts.
**Total - 22 pts.
**
Now, assume Meeko as a toughguy:
TOWN
Detective - 4 pts
Lie Dectector - 3.5 pts (generous)
Paranoid Doctor - 2.5 pts (being generous)
10 x 1 Vanilla Town - 10 pts.
Day Start - 1 pts.
Total - 21 pts.
SCUM Scenario 1
Roleblocker - 6 pts.
Toughguy - 7 pts.
2 x 4.5 Vanilla Scum - 9 pts.
Total - 22 pts.
SCUM Scenario 2
Roleblocker - 6 pts.
Godfather - 7 pts.
Toughguy - 7 pts.
1 x 4.5 Vanilla Scum - 4.5 pts.
Total - 24.5 pts.
So, from a game-balance perspective it is plausible, at least in one case, although as Zeriel mentions it may not make sense given what’s transpired. I have no experience on whether using a bonus nightkill on Night 1 is good play or not.
Well, to answer Telcontar’s question.
Well, Chronos is right, time to lay in a vote.
Scuba_Ben has been pinging me with his smudging and fishing over the past couple of days, but Telcontar raises a point here:
On review, Shadow’s record against Scuba was not overly risky if he was building town cred. On Day 2, it was a late one-off, which Zeriel even commented on at the time. Day 3 was somewhat riskier in that he placed an early vote and rode it to the end, when he broke the tie between Chronos and Fiend. In other words, while he did not switch off of Scuba earlier, he didn’t have to given the circumstances (incidentally, his partner in crime in voting for Scuba was AllWalker). Yes, WIFOM-ey, so I will file this for further examination as well. I am also confused as to his case for Chronos in this post, and am awaiting his reply.
Diver has me suspicious as well. He raises the PM issue here, under the false assumption that Scum were trying to fabricate PMs because they were not issued by Mahaloth. He acknowledges his mistake, but immediately returns to smudge those with the same PM based on something Mahaloth didn’t really say (he said not to read anything into slight differences – identical PM verbiage is still likely, even probable). He continues is this vein by smudging those who posted their PMs at his request (including me, FTR), and proposes a WIFOM scenario whereupon he ignores the perfectly valid alias PMs issued by Mahaloth (again, even after he acknowledged they were available). Telcontar calls him out on it, and storyteller adds a bit of metagamey Lost-specific knowledge to the mix (although the latter is not intended to be very telling, in any event).
Ironically, all of this is unnecessary as Chronos’s FOS was just plain wrong – Diver’s character was not on the plane, so his PM could reasonably be assumed to be different.
Diver seems to be grasping at straws, and continuing to scratch at the PMs when there is nothing there is not pro-town. I will place a conditional vote here and await further input from Diver, and can be talked into Scuba if a better case is made.
vote USCDiver
BTW, Chronos, you have specifically mentioned Telcontar and Zeriel wrt their PMs, but have said nothing about USCDiver since you smudged him. Why do you believe his PM is suspicious?
I wouldn’t say I’m grasping at straws. There’s only a few things we can do to find scum: we can sit around and wait for a scum to make an obvious slit (not gonna happen), we can wait for our investigator to find scum (hasn’t happened yet) or we can look for patterns in the posts that have been made. That’s what I’ve been trying to do.
I’ve got to head to work for the day, but I’ll be back later this evening. I’m going to reserve my vote for self-defense, but I’m not afraid of dying.
Honestly, I’m not sure yet. I tried to keep up with new posts during what was, for me, a long weekend (I had off work yesterday), but it is very difficult for me to keep up with the game when I’m not at work. I intend to read more intensively today and get a vote on the record ASAP.
I think I have learned that I shouldn’t really play in any games where a substantial percentage of each Day will fall on the weekend. I simply can’t commit to an adequate level of participation in such a situation.
More to come.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but isn’t an OMGUS pretty close to “laying relatively low in the unconfirmed pool”? Just saying…
Lets get those votes in. 26 hours to go.
I’m checking back in. I got home later than expected, and found I have a commitment tonight. So I have no chance for substantial analysis Today.
cardinal_fang in #1656 asks me to explain my best-guess on Chronos in #1628. My best guess of pedescribe’s power is that if he block-tected a Scum, he would disrupt the Scum’s kill. This is only a guess, but it is consistent with the only certain block of a Scum, that of ShadowFacts on Night 2.
Chronos was block-tected last Night (if I remember correctly), yet pedescribe was Killed. Based on my assumption that pede blocking a Scum would always block the Scum’s kill – which I freely admit has as much proof as saying “pede would have to block the Scum’s designated killer” or “pede blocking a Scum would have a 1 in N chance of blocking the kill, where N is the number of Scum remaining”, that is, no proof whatsoever – then I have to conclude for my own card that Chronos is Town.
I have no preference between the three players with votes on them (Jimmy, USC, Zeriel). I will skim Today’s and last Night’s posts when I get a chance.
Ooh, get it? Jimmy sucks!
I’m sorry that my contribution has been so woeful as to render a sideshow out of any votes I make, but Chronos was right; nobody’s doing anything in this game. I can’t see any reason why you need to be offended by a single vote.
I’m sorry you’re insulted by the attention. It’s not like I’m trying to railroad anybody; I note that your vote was the 4th for ShadowFacts, and you were very forceful and convincing in your reasoning for that vote. Ten points to you.
Meanwhile, I have to vote for somebody. And I had one moment where you really seemed to be thinking from an anti-town perspective, and your name is on pretty much every “watch list” that has been posted thus far (by which I mean, the list of unconfirmeds, AllWalker’s cross-section list of non-claimers and late-contributors, etc.) As of the last six days or so your main contribution has been to accuse me of:
which was funny given that your next two posts were
and
I’m not an idiot; I am aware this isn’t exactly beyond a reasonable doubt caliber evidence. There’s still time for my vote to move as I reread and compare the different cases and people’s responses to them. At the same time, it’s not like you’ve been in here playing an obviously pro-town game on a regular basis. Sometimes it’s worth voting for somebody just to see whether or not, for instance, they’ll flip out and vote for you out of anger.
(Although it’s hard to blame anybody for voting for me at this point, so I’m not inclined to count that as much of a negative in your ledger. You’re lucky I’ve made so many stupid decisions, though, because otherwise it would look a lot like your OMGUS that you can retract at any time was an easy way to get another townie installed as an early vote-leader.).
If pedescribe’s power would be guaranteed to prevent a kill if he used it on any Scum whatsoever, it would have been game-breakingly powerful. We could have left ShadowFacts alive and simply blocked him every Night, eliminating the Scum’s ability to Night kill for the remainder of the game. I can’t imagine a circumstance in which this would make for a balanced game or even a somewhat balanced game.
I don’t mean to take on the role of prosecuting attorney in the case of Town v. Chronos. I just think there’s a lot of buying into the theory that Chronos is confirmed, and nothing we’ve seen supports that confirmation. He is vanilla. We have a statement from AllWalker that may or may not constitute a breadcrumb - and we have the possibility that a role might be able to confuse a Detective (remember, we have two investigators, so a number of hedges against this might be present). Chronos’ insistence on his own confirmation in and of itself worries me tremendously: remember, to win the Scum need only to have us accept one of them as Town. We can lynch every other Scum in the game, but if we guess wrong and accept Chronos as Town when he is Scum, it will mean a loss in the end.
Your math is correct.
I think that, from a game balance perspective, it would make sense for their to be two vanilla scum, a roleblocker, and…something. a toughguy is possible. A godfather is possible. It would normally be a bad play to use a bonus nightkill on night 1, but it would also normally be a bad play to use a 1 shot vigilante kill on night 1. I’m inclined to trust meeko until 3 person mafia based on his pre-cover ID name claim, but the math doesn’t prohibit him as toughguy.
I agree on pedescribe and blocking. Very likely Shadow was the designated killer the night pedescribe blocked him.
Like meeko, chronos is someone who I am trusting at this point even though it is theoretically possible that he’s actually scum. I think allwalker’s breadcrumbs were as clear as breadcrumbs tend to get. Though, like you and zeriel, I think his “I’m confirmed, I’m confirmed” dance isn’t exactly a town tell.
Oh:
Given any of our game math approaches, we are currently at lynch or lose. just saying.
neta:oops, can’t count. really wish i could edit. Tomorrow is lynch or lose.
Even if we lynch scum tonight?
Just as good, I am moving to a new apartment on the first.
What is the average win Ratio for Town in Mafia games?