No. currently an assumption of 4 starting mafia gives us 1 mistake. Not much margin for error though, we really need to kick it up a notch.
Presumably designed to be 50-50, right?
If I really wanted to do THAT, I’d’ve voted for Diver.
Right now we’re in this situation:
We can be reasonably sure of Story, Chronos, and Meeko. I freely admit, none are actually confirmable at this time.
That leaves us Telcontar, USC_Diver, Scuba_Ben, cardinalfang, JimmyChitwood, and myself.
Regardless of who analyzes it, we have between a 33% and 50% chance of catching scum just by hunting that pool–assuming either three or four scum at game start.
Regardless of who we lynch toDay, Tomorrow will start us with five unconfirmed and, likely, two remaining “confirmed”. That makes us either 4-3 or 5-2. IF we are 4-3, which is likelier, we’re obviously at LyLo. If not, we’ve got a grace day and a serious concern over how such a small scum team got balanced.
**Jimmy’s **making me more suspicious of him with his last post–for example, when he quotes me for snarling at him about “sowing distrust of the vig” and notes my next post is snarking at Meeko, he utterly fails to mention that he was second-guessing the vig during the previous night and my snark at **Meeko **was after the next morning when we found out **Meeko **had been gratuitously lying as part of a gambit. Obviously NOT the case of hypocrisy **Jimmy **was attempting to lay out.
Yes, I’m on **AllWalker’s **watch list–because I pointed out I belonged there myself!
And yes, I continue to realize no one is fully confirmed, so of course I wanted the balance implications of Meeko-as-toughguy examined. Our best strategy, unfortunately, is to regard Chronos, Story, and **Meeko **as “confirmed”, but we have very little basis for that aside from both **Story **and **Meeko **being un-counterclaimed and a potential breadcrumb. As I posted before, I think the breadcrumb is good enough to make sense.
I didn’t say anything specifically about USCDiver at that time because we already had his PM. I asked specifically about Telcontar and Zeriel because, based on their claimed characters, there was a chance their PMs would be different from everyone else’s, and I wanted to see all the cards on the table. As for USCDiver, I think it a bit odd that there would be one and only one vanilla Town who wasn’t on the plane, but that’s only a slight suspicion, especially considering that AllWalker was a freighter character too. As I said, it’s not enough to base a vote on.
As for whether I’m confirmed, I do have to concede that I could be a godfather or something, since the best evidence in my favor is AllWalker’s investigation. That still means assuming a fairly specific set of circumstances if I happen to be Scum: You’d have to assume that, first, there exists a godfather in this game, second, that I’m the godfather, and third, that I was the presumably single Scum who didn’t do anything last Night (since my blocktection didn’t stop the Night-kill nor the Scum block). Now, I think that this would make me relatively unlikely to be Scum, but obviously, I’m not the one who has to be convinced by it. Vote me if you must, but I do think that there are much better candidates at this point.
On another note, I find Zeriel’s OMGUS vote suspicious. I don’t have time to do so right now, but this evening I’ll want to take a closer look at him.
Zeriel just cross-posted this with me:
And what makes you think that Diver is a Townie?
I was flippantly responding to Chitwood’s assumption that I was voting as I did to townie bandwagon Chitwood. Given that I don’t know EITHER of them is townie, and both are in fact on my unknown list…
That’s both a strange interpretation of what I said and an extremely oblique way to make the point you were trying to make. As I said, I wasn’t making that assumption at all; in fact I came right out and said, hey, can’t blame you for voting for me.
But anyway. In the meantime, another day is slipping by, and I don’t want it to be all about me because that’s going to turn out to be bad for town. Can we try to get as many votes as possible on record, say, tonight before bedtime? I think that would definitely be a good development for town if everyone was on record with a healthy amount of time before the deadline. Obviously there’s no enforcement mechanism here, but since everyone has at least been participating in the discussion, I think it’s worth throwing it out there. My assumption, at least, is that it will be harder to manipulate the vote (and more obvious in the end if the vote has been manipulated) if we try to stay away as much as possible from the “Oh, checking in here, been busy, I agree with X, Y, and Z, vote B.”
If you’re Town, then you don’t know either of them is Town, but then, if you were Town, you wouldn’t be trying to townie bandwagon anyone in the first place. What you’re saying is that if you were Scum, you would know that Diver is Town. Well, maybe, maybe not: If you were Scum, you might instead know that Diver is Scum. I’m having a hard time seeing how your post makes sense if you’re Town.
Unvote Jimmy Chitwood
Vote Zeriel
for what appears to be a PIS slip, and for casting an OMGUS vote.
**vote Count:
USCDiver(3): Meeko, Telcontar, CardinalFang
Zeriel(2): Jimmy Chitwood, Chronos
Jimmy Chitwood(1): Zeriel
**
Unvote Diver
Vote Zeriel
Call me a Spaz will you?
That’s as bad as BillMC voting me as he was.
Oh, and you slipped here? Yeah.
Chronos, to be sure, you said that Zeriel slipped here, by calling Diver town, right?
Perfect Information Syndrome?
I’ve been trying to figure out how you could mean this without essentially saying you know that I’m town and even after seeing this:
I’m still not sure. It looks to me like Perfect Information Syndrome (ie PIS from Chrono’s similar post). It isn’t much, but it’s enough for me to vote.
vote Zeriel
This is what bothered me about Scuba’s case. If your choices for the role mechanics are “block the nightkiller’s action” and “block all scum NK actions,” then the former is the nominal way the role operates and the likely candidate. Why pick the latter and use it to bolster his case for Chronos? It just seems weird to make such a stretch to go from “probable” to “confirmed.”
Underlining mine.
OK, storyteller, I may be the densest player here, but you are finally getting through to me. I have gone from anti-**Chronos **on Days 2 and 3 to pro-Chronos after AllWalker’s breadcrumbs. I am placing a lot of weight on them, and did not even consider the possibility that his investigation was interfered with.
Mahaloth, I believe this is a fair question relating to the mechanics of a known power role, and I hope you will answer it:
Would a Godfather-type in this game interfere with a Medium’s investigation as he would a Cop’s?
storyteller, can you confirm that “Sawyer” (Meeko) is indeed an unambiguous town name in your judgement? I know nothing about Lost, but reading though the Wikipedia entry leads me to believe he was something of a dick until the third or fourth season.
OK, so your suspicion was based on the fact that his character was not a plane crash survivor, not some PM syntax issue (which would naturally follow from his differing island origins). That is fair enough.
Underlining mine.
I had not considered this Godfather scenario until this evening, and I am still a ways from being convinced, but your argument here is confusing to me. Are you back to Scuba’s uber-blocker scenario where blocking one scum wipes out all scum night actions (in this case, the roleblocker on top of the night killer)? Also, what other active night powers does the GF have? I may be misunderstanding how that role works.
I’m assuming that the Scum have to choose one particular person each Night to do the killing, and that if the role-blocker blocks that particular person, then the killing is blocked. This is a fairly standard way of doing the night-kill, especially if the Scum also have some active power roles among them-- The same person can’t do the kill and use some other power. As long as there are still vanilla Scum left, this makes little difference, but if we were to get it down to just the role-blocker, then he’d have to choose each night whether to use his role-block or to kill.
Oh, and to clarify what I meant before: If we’re down to three Scum as of yesterDay evening, as seems likely, then one of them had to have been the one to make the kill, while another role-blocked storyteller, and the third presumably sat idle. The kill went through, and storyteller still didn’t get a result, so neither the killer nor the blocker got hit by pede. I was targeted by pede (or at least, so I say, but nobody has counter-claimed), so that makes it less likely (though admittedly, not impossible) that I’m Scum.
Chronos : All of that to say that Story should use his power, every night, regardless?
What happens when a roleblocker get NKed? Do they get to use their power that night?
That usually varies by moderator. Some allow all it, some don’t.