Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

And, yet again, I feel compelled to say that more possibilities as far as scum dancing partners is NOT NOT NOT NOT THE SAME AS MORE LIKELY TO BE SCUM. If I’m playing the scummiest game, but there’s only one other person I can be paired with, but Billy Boogersby has four possible combinations, you don’t lynch Billy, you lynch me. What the program does, even if it’s effective, is give you a lead on where to go after you find out, for instance, that I am not scum. If I’m not making sense here - I assume that I am not - somebody tell me where I’m wrong.

Also, if anybody has reason for voting for me that isn’t the program, and that I’m not about to address, please let me know.

The ShadowFacts/Zeriel/pedescribe et al thing

1. Post 1435 – pedescribe had confused me greatly. To begin with, I thought he had been playing an anti-town game from the beginning, as evidenced by my record. I didn’t understand his unvoting of ShadowFacts immediately prior to this point. He said “how would he know he was protected unless he was?” It didn’t occur to me immediately what pedescribe was saying there; it appeared to me that he was offering that statement in support of ShadowFacts, since it was coupled with an unvote. I didn’t realize until later that what he was really saying with that rhetorical question was “It’s obvious now that I was lying before, so I’ll stop lying about my role.” I thought he was saying “ShadowFacts’ knowledge of being protected is evidence that he is a town player.”

After this post, story came in and said OK, pedescribe, who should we vote for. I really didn’t trust story at this point, so I started to get really suspicious about how there was another late-Day change in the works.

Telcontar then followed up with an unvote of pedescribe. I was still at this point utterly mystified as to what pedescribe had done to begin this whole thing, and what his motivations were.

Then I posted twice: 1 and 2.

I listed the following four as looking bad: ped, Shadow, story, Telcontar. These are the four I was just discussing. Hopefully at this point it’s clear why I said those four looked bad (late vote switch; I didn’t understand the theory). Then I said, IF what these four are saying is true, then all the scum must be in the remaining pool. It wasn’t even really possible for me to be “smudging” both pools at once, since I was pitting them against each other. So I wouldn’t draw any conclusions with regard to my feelings about Telcontar from the fact that I mentioned him; I was just taking things to their logical conclusion.

1451 – Still don’t know what’s going on with pedescribe. Not inclined to go with the logic being proposed by other people I don’t trust. As it says right in the post:

And, of course, it isn’t good enough to say, well X scenario is too complicated, Y scenario is too complicated. I’m looking for an affirmative, credible case that somebody is scum. That seems to be lacking at the moment, save for some kind of elaborate conspiracy of the sort you’re describing, OR save for the kind of stunningly bad fucking luck of the sort I described earlier.

But all right, I don’t want to vote at the literal last second. I’m just going to vote for the scummiest I can see and figure out what it means later.

… I wasn’t sure what was going on and I wanted to get a vote on record and keep thinking about it. I voted for the player who had the overall-scummiest contribution at that point, which is a rule I’ve stuck to for all of my votes.

1454 - I explain more or less what I’ve just explained above, and concede that some of my mistrust of story is poorly-founded. More importantly, I learn from Chronos that I have completely misinterpreted pedescribe’s post about “How would Shadow have known…”

1462 is where the worm turns. Chronos has just counseled me that:

the fact remains that there was no Scum-kill Night 2, and pede’s claimed role is the only explanation anyone has offered for that. If pede is Scum, then we’re forced to the conclusion that Scum deliberately gave up their Night-kill just to set up some elaborate gambit that they couldn’t have known if it would even work, and I can’t see any gambit being worth that.

So despite my misgivings about pedescribe’s overall play, I at this point recognize that the probabilities are not working in my favor. I hadn’t considered the above point, which means that I should trust pedescribe, which does not mean that I need to trust ShadowFacts. Not sure why it matters that I said “what’s the point of a protest vote,” since it was 14 minutes before lynch and my vote wasn’t going to change anything.

Also I’m a little disturbed by how good Telcontar’s read on how much fun I’d be having if I were scum. Damn, would I ever.

(post regarding everything that isn’t about me to follow)

[Chronos]

I still think Chronos’s program should come with a big warning sign saying “Not proven effective.”

Nah, that sounds like something you’d put on medication. How about “beta test”?

Quoth Scuba_Ben:

I do note that Chronos didn’t actually come to any Town / Scum conclusions about cardinal_fang.

Going into that post, I had a vague bad feeling about cardinal_fang, but nothing I could put my finger on. In retrospect, I still don’t have anything I can put a finger on, and I think my vague bad feeling was based largely on OMGUS. I’m not really in a position where I can objectively evaluate the case he had against me, but it clearly wasn’t made up out of whole cloth. And most criticisms of cardinal leveled by others seem to be based primarily on his “lurking”, which I think I debunked. So to the extent that I countered the primary case against cardinal, I suppose that puts my Wall of Words on the side of him being Town, but that’s not to say that some other case than his post count might not come up.

…AND by continued post analysis, because the program only counts votes and is not the entirety of the situation.

Oh, absolutely, and I wouldn’t want anyone to think otherwise. Even if one does accept that the five scenarios the program came up with are the only ones possible, there’s still the task of figuring out which one of those five we actually have.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

I have twice lost a lengthy post about how I feel about everyone involved in the game. I can’t bring myself to go through the entire thing again. Cliff’s Notes version:

Chronos - trust, think breadcrumbed
Meeko - assuming town
cardinal_fang - had a vague suspicion, not borne out by the facts. I think it’s interesting what Chronos pointed out about his detractors. I feel moderately confident that he’s town. this means that the binary approach taken by the program output analysis is flawed. If I get lynched, my hope is that you will not then immediately lynch fang when I come up town.
Telcontar - agree with fang. Non-controversial, active, nothing tangible to pin on him. If scum, doing a pretty good job. But maybe.
Diver last vote was ridiculous, no other participation.
Scuba - story trusted, I’m not so sure.

I think the most elegant solution here is that we have a Scuba/Diver team. Judging by who is voting for who right now, it seems to jump out as reasonably possible. Diver’s not even really bothering at this point, and his last vote was just silly, so for the moment I’ll go with

Vote USCDiver

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Note that if Diver is indeed scum, then it is easy to characterize Scuba’s analysis-based reasoning as an outcome-based method of getting the point he wants addressed out there. To wit, either Telcontar or myself must be scum, he doesn’t suspect Diver because of the program logic – in fact he’s the least likely scum, we get the most useful information by lynching Jimmy, the probabilities suggest two groups of scum, neither of which includes the Scuba Diver hyperentity, etc.

Everyone is suspicious. Except Diver.

[Scuba_Ben]

And in counterpoint, that means I should do a rigorous analysis of USCDiver. I’m basing my entire lack of suspicion on USCDiver on the results of Chronos’s analysis program.

I strongly do not want to let my final vote Today be based solely on the probabilities from that analysis program. Given that, I point to my record at finding Scum, and note that the program’s output may be much more reliable than my own analysis.

USCDiver’s lack of an explanation when he voted in #1908 continues to be annoying every time I think about it.

I’ll have to reread pages 25 to 39 to get a good feel for both USCDiver and cardinal_fang.

In sum, my further-analysis list, in alphabetical (not suspicion) order, is Jimmy, Telcontar, and USCDiver.

[Chronos]

Oh, by the way, Scuba:

I haven’t been able to run the program myself or analyze the code, because I’m stuck with C# which doesn’t like the #define var=val directive. FOS Microsoft

You should be able to get around that by doing a find-and-replace n_players with 13, and then add to the beginning of main() the following lines:

int max_scum = 4
int min_scum = 4
int scum_votes 15

[Chronos]

Oh, also, if I’m Town, then Telcontar’s place in my program output is basically the same as USCDiver’s. Both of them show up in only one scenario. And of course, the scenarios should not all be viewed as equally probable, unless you decide (incorrectly, I would argue) to ignore all other evidence besides the program output. My inclination is actually that the most likely of the five scenarios is the one with USCDiver and Jimmy Chitwood both Scum. But since we’re only lynching one person at a time, we should be looking at which individual is most likely to be Scum, not which pair of individuals is, and to my eye, that’s Jimmy.

[Chronos]

NETA, two posts up: Put a semicolon at the end of each of those lines.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@Chronos

But since we’re only lynching one person at a time, we should be looking at which individual is most likely to be Scum, not which pair of individuals is, and to my eye, that’s Jimmy.

because…

[USCDiver]

I apologize for my lack of participation Today. I kinda lost interest when the insults started flying. My case against **Telconter **Today is the same as the one I made yesterday before **Zeriel **made what I saw as a major slip. I don’t have anything new to say about him Today, however, notice that he voted for me and only linked his posts from Yesterday so I don’t feel too bad about it.

I think it’s kind of ridiculous that so many of you are even thinking about voting based on Chronos’s algorithm which is not only based on ONE unproven assumption but is also easily manipulated by Scum.

Chronos, when the game is over, I’d encourage you to go back and look at the probabilities predicted by your program at the end of each Day and see if they were even close to making accurate predictions.

[Meeko]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

Vote USCDiver

@Jimmy_Chitwood

Everyone is suspicious. Except Diver.

I read this as “Everyone is suspicious, except the person I am voting for.”

Am I missing something here?

[Chronos]

Meeko, the second quote is a rephrasing of what Jimmy views Scuba’s argument to be.
Quoth USCDiver:

I think it’s kind of ridiculous that so many of you are even thinking about voting based on Chronos’s algorithm which is not only based on ONE unproven assumption but is also easily manipulated by Scum.

So many? Jimmy Chitwood is crying out from the rooftops against it, cardinal_fang is going through the underlying assumptions with a fine-toothed comb, Telcontar is slapping a big “Not proven effective” warning sticker on it, and who knows what Meeko is thinking? So far as I can tell, Scuba and I are the only ones who are paying any real attention to the algorithm at all. In fact, over half the town is currently voting for either you or Telcontar, which is absolutely not voting according to my program, since according to it, anyone suspicious of you should vote Jimmy instead, and anyone suspicious of Telcontar should vote cardinal_fang.

[cardinal_fang]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

[snip]

I think the most elegant solution here is that we have a Scuba/Diver team.

[snip]

I saw what you did there.

[cardinal_fang]

@Chronos

OK, Wall of Words on cardinal_fang.

[snip]

Second, on the other hand, he doesn’t seem to have generated much new discussion, just following through on what others have brought up. If I’m not mistaken, for instance, he never cast the first vote for anyone, and I don’t think he came up with any new ideas on how to find Scum. This is a point against him, but is probably better explained by skill level, playstyle, or schedule than by scumminess.

[snip]

Underlining mine.

Well, I did have one new idea on how to modify the name claim business back in Day 1 in this post, although we saw how well that turned out. But hey, it was my second day playing Mafia and I was convinced I had it all figured out.

[cardinal_fang]

Unofficial Vote Count (please verify)

USCDiver(3): Telcontar, cardinal_fang, Jimmy Chitwood

Jimmy(2): Chronos, Scuba_Ben

Telcontar(1): USCDiver

Chronos(1): Meeko

[cardinal_fang]

As it stands, I believe we have all voted. I presume USCDiver will change his vote to Jimmy as a defensive measure, which will leave us at 3-3, with Meeko holding a one-off vote at this point.

Whatever happens, a reminder to all that the Day six ends Tuesday (i.e. in 13 hours or so). We are getting close.

[USCDiver]

Since I’ve got to be at work tomorrow during the end of the Day and I still want Town to win (even though I’m not sure we deserve it), I’m going to go ahead and vote defensively:

unvote Telconter

vote Jimmy Chitwood

[Mahaloth]

**Vote Count:

USCDiver(3): Telcontar, CardinalFang, Jimmy Chitwood

Jimmy(3): Chronos, ScubaBen, USCDiver

Chronos: Meeko**

[Meeko]

o.O

Oh boy.

Look, here is a can of worms. The label says “I can has tie break mechanic?”.

That’s a funny name for a can of worms.

Oh, and look, over there is a can opener.

[Meeko]

But seriously.

I botched the vig kill. I’m not stepping in on this one.