Cruz endorsed Trump, mentioned his name, said he’d vote for him, said others should. He didn’t spend 23 hours or whatever on the floor of the Senate singing Trump’s praises, but…
It’s bad news if you don’t like Trump in the sense that the obvious main reason is Cruz’ assessment Trump isn’t likely now to lose by much if he loses at all. I doubt it’s hardball by the RNC, because if Trump gets beaten by a significant margin they are all history anyway, pro-Trump and ‘The Establishment’ two targets on their backs. The problem from Cruz’ POV is it doesn’t look like much potential to be the ‘I told ya so [about Trump]’ candidate.
It’s just Cruz’ opinion though that Trump isn’t going to lose by a lot, and from a purely anti-Trump POV Trump losing by a little is as good as him losing by a lot. From a broader Democratic POV though the relatively tight presidential polls mean more chance the GOP holds the Senate and very high chance they hold the House. Which also means less likelihood of a party in chaos and distress following a Trump loss (many grassroots people yes, but still little actual love for Trump among elected GOP, Trump causing them big Congressional losses is their fear, and they are feeling better about that now). So again less advantage for Cruz to remain the ‘told you so’ guy.
And I think this Cruz calculation is as much now about hanging onto his own Senate seat in '18 as thinking about 2020.
Being held responsible for aiding and abetting a Clinton victory in a hypothetically cose election, let alone dealing with what if he actually wins? Might cost him his seat.
In my own personal opinion un-backed by any facts, the only conceivable outcome of this endorsement is to push more undecided voters toward a Clinton voter. It’s just another piece of evidence of the moral vacuity of the Republican party.
My own fact-free opinion is the opposite. The undecided voter (assuming such a creature actually exists) would probably consider Cruz a “mainstream R”. So the endorsement is further proof of Trump’s acceptability to the political mainstream.
In other words, it partially erases one of the potential black marks against Trump in the mind of an undecided voter. Making that person marginally more likely to vote Trump.
Traditionally the “undecided voter” meant somebody in the middle who could be pulled one way or another by a favorable enough candidate.
I suspect most true undecideds today are more folks who have decided they’re repulsed by both sides and are trying to decide whether to vote at all or not. And if so, who for. In that environment removing small negatives about a candidate is the route to gaining their vote.
Note I’m NOT suggesting it’s wise or rational to be equally repulsed by both sides. I’m just saying there’s a lot of that thinking and rhetoric out there. It’s a targetable demographic so both sides are targeting it in their own way.
I agree with yours. As to fact, nobody can see the future nor even determine scientifically after the election if Trump or Clinton squeaking to victory had anything to do with Cruz, though be pretty sure it wasn’t important if either wins significantly.
However I think it’s a general factual observation of elections it’s very hard to generate votes/turnout for one side out of dislike for a secondary figure on the other side. But the Cruz endorsement gives a specific positive reason for an albeit small contingent of ‘Never Trump’ conservatives, especially the Cruz primary supporters among them, to throw in the towel and vote for Trump. Trump still has per most polls lower % Republican support than Romney did, though it had gotten better without Cruz and the holdouts aren’t all Cruz-friendly. Still there’s a pocket of the electorate friendly to Cruz and very skeptical of Trump.
A small herd of horses maybe, but speaking of a group of voters who would have ever seriously considered voting for Trump but now won’t because he’s associated with Cruz seems to me like postulating a herd of unicorns.
It appears that the only person likely to be injured by this is Cruz, and only so far as the most rigid tighty-righty is concerned. Like those who considered Cruz the paragon of moral derpitude, and are angry that he would support a scuzz-bucket like Trump. To a certain degree, I can relate.