I find it very helpful to see vote counts collected over the course of the Day, to better understand how votes were changing over time. Here’s what I’ve found. For the most part I’ve just taken vote counts that either the mod or various players posted. In a couple of critical instances I’ve manually reconstructed a vote count.
**Day 1 Post 294 (Daphne’s Claim) **
DaphneBlack - 6 votes - Askthepizzaguy (211), Astral Rejection (223), Inner Stickler (224), DiggitCamara (228), septimus (252), Johnny Bravo (291)
Silver Jan - 4 votes - Astral Rejection (190), Askthepizzaguy (211), DaphneBlack (220), Captain Klutz (240)
Astral Rejection - 3 votes - wevets (177), DaphneBlack (225), Chronos (237)
Mahaloth - 2 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149)
Askthepizzaguy - 2 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237)
Idle Thoughts - 2 votes - wevets (177), Johnny Bravo (189)
sinjin - 2 vote - Askthepizzaguy (151), dizzymrslizzy (274)
Inner Stickler - 1 vote - wevets (177)
Chronos - 1 vote - wevets (177)
septimus - 2 vote - Daphne Black (220), TexCat (258)
gnarlycharlie - 1 vote - TexCat (260)
Scathach - 1 vote - TexCat (285)
TexCat - 1 vote - Scathach (290)
DiggitCamara - 1 vote - Johnny Bravo (291)
I don’t think that there’s much to learn from this vote count. No known scum are in the remotest danger at this point. There’s a nice lynch train on Daphne and the #2 candidate is town. I mostly post it so that we can see how the votes shifted in respond to the claim.
Day 1 Post 363
Texcat - 5 votes - Scathach (290), septimus (310), Silver Jan (318), dizzymrslizzy (343), gnarlycharlie (362)
Silver Jan - 4 votes - Astral Rejection (190), Askthepizzaguy (211), Captain Klutz (240), Texcat (316)
Astral Rejection - 4 votes - wevets (177), Daphne Black (225), Chronos (237), Rysto (340)
septimus - 3 votes - DaphneBlack (220), Texcat (258), Idle Thoughts (303)
Mahaloth - 2 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149)
Askthepizzaguy - 2 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237)
sinjin - 2 votes - Askthepizzaguy (151), Dizzymrslizzy (274)
Idle Thoughts - 2 votes - wevets (177), septimus (310)
DaphneBlack - 2 votes - Askthpizzaguy (211), Inner Stickler (224)
gnarlycharlie - 2 votes - Texcat (260), Darth Sensitive (296)
scathach - 2 votes - Texcat (285), Darth Sensitive (296)
Inner Stickler - 1 vote - wevets (177)
Chronos - 1 vote - wevets (177)
dizzymrslizzy - 1 vote - Silver Jan (309)
Darth Sensitive - 1 vote - gnarlycharlie (362)
DiggitCamara - 2 votes - Johnny Bravo (291), DaphneBlack (308)
Now things get interesting. TexCat jumps into the lead. In response to a claim of Sherlock Holmes (assuming it is true, of course, which is definitely looks to be now) I would expect a sudden shift in the vote count. This would be a very dangerous time for scum to place a vote on scum, as the town is likely to be looking for a new bandwagon to jump on. I therefore give a bit of town cred to septimus and especially gnarlycharlie. Scathach’s vote came before the claim, which would have been a very safe time for a one-off vote on scum, so I count this as neutral.
Texcat chose to go after Silver Jan in post 316 instead of Astral when they were tied. A Chronos was already on Astral I count this as neutral. If Astral is town you can explain that as scum don’t want to be too obviously voting together, and the net effect is the same. If Astral is scum the motivation for a Silver Jan vote is obvious.
Day 1 Post 475
Pleonast (6) - Chronos, LightFoot, Mahaloth, Darth Sensitive, Askthepizzaguy, Astral Rejection
Astral Rejection (5) - wevets, Daphne Black, Chronos, Rysto, gnarlycharlie
Texcat (5) - Scathach, septimus, dizzymrslizzy, gnarlycharlie, Pleonast
Askthepizzaguy (4) - sinjin, Chronos, Inner Stickler, Pleonast
dizzymrslizzy (4) - Silver Jan, Septimus, [del]TexCat[/del], DaphneBlack, Astral Rejection
DiggitCamara (3) - DaphneBlack, Johnny Bravo, Askthepizzaguy
Mahaloth (3) - Chronos, sinjin, Pleonast
septimus (2) - Texcat, Idle Thoughts
Silver Jan (2) - Askthepizzaguy, Captain Klutz
Idle Thoughts (2) - wevets, septimus
sinjin (2) – Askthepizzaguy, Dizzymrslizzy
Chronos (2) - wevets, Pleonast
LightFoot (2) - Astral Rejection, Pleonast
Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharlie
gnarlycharlie (1) - Darth Sensitive
Inner Stickler (1) - wevets
Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot
(Note: TexCat’s vote for dizzy is striked out because it was not properly formatted and thus not official)
Pleonast roars into first. Previously I didn’t think that Chronos’ vote here was interesting, but it came after TexCat went into danger and it was his only vote. If a scum is in danger I find it less likely that scum would place a one-off on scum in that situation rather than a vote for town.
Pleo also gets on the TexCat bandwagon. Another townie point for Pleonast.
pizza’s and Astral’s votes for Pleonast here warrant close attention. These were critical votes that pushed Pleo over Texcat – I’ll try to come back to them later.
TexCat’s botched vote is mostly interesting for who she didn’t vote for: the other leading wagons in Pleo, Astral and pizza.
Day 1 Post 510
dizzymrslizzy (7) - Silver Jan, Septimus, DaphneBlack, Astral Rejection, Askthepizzaguy, Darth Sensitive, Texcat
Pleonast (5) - Chronos, LightFoot, Mahaloth, Darth Sensitive, Astral Rejection
Astral Rejection (5) - wevets, Chronos, Rysto, gnarlycharlie, septimus
Texcat (5) - Scathach, septimus, dizzymrslizzy, gnarlycharlie, Pleonast
Askthepizzaguy (5) - sinjin, Chronos, Inner Stickler, Pleonast, Darth Sensitive
Mahaloth (3) - Chronos, sinjin, Pleonast
DiggitCamara (2) - DaphneBlack, Johnny Bravo
septimus (2) - Texcat, Idle Thoughts
Idle Thoughts (2) - wevets, septimus
Chronos (2) - wevets, Pleonast
LightFoot (2) - Astral Rejection, Pleonast
Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharlie
gnarlycharlie (1) - Darth Sensitive
Inner Stickler (1) - wevets
Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot
Silver Jan (1) - Captain Klutz
sinjin (1) Dizzymrslizzy
The dizzymrslizzy train comes out of nowhere. Astral, pizza and Darth are all interesting here. I took a quick look, and pizza gets off of Pleo, sending him into a tie for the lead at 5, and then 15 minutes later pushes dizzymrslizzy into a tie in the official count. Note that TexCat had tried to vote for dizzymrslizzy already and got the formatting wrong, which she corrected later on. With TexCat’s vote that’s enough to push dizzymrslizzy into the lead and take Texcat/Astral/pizza out of immediate danger.
Day 1 Final
dizzymrslizzy – 8 votes - Silver Jan (309), septimus (395), DaphneBlack (449), Astral Rejection (473), Askthepizzaguy (490), Darth Sensitive (495), Texcat (506), Captain Klutz (512)
Texcat – 5 votes - Scathach (290), septimus (310), Pleonast (431), dizzymrslizzy (343), gnarlycharlie (362)
Astral Rejection – 5 votes - wevets (177), septimus (496), Chronos (237), Rysto (340), gnarlycharlie (407)
Askthepizzaguy – 5 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237), Inner Stickler (364), Pleonast (415), Darth Sensitive (495)
Pleonast – 4 votes - Chronos (371), Lightfoot (376), Mahaloth (384), Darth Sensitive (432)
Mahaloth – 3 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149), Pleonast (474)
Lightfoot – 3 votes - Astral Rejection (440), Pleonast (474), Johnny Bravo (517)
septimus – 2 votes - Texcat (258), Idle Thoughts (303)
Chronos – 2 votes - wevets (177), Pleonast (468)
DiggitCamara – 2 votes - Johnny Bravo (291), DaphneBlack (308)
Idle Thoughts (1) - septimus
Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharlie
gnarlycharlie (1) - Darth Sensitive
Inner Stickler (1) - wevets
Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot
Silver Jan (1) - Captain Klutz
sinjin (1) Dizzymrslizzy
A mason finishes the pile-on. Not too much to see here.
Day 3 Post 794
Texcat (6): septimus, Idle Thoughts, Mahaloth, gnarlycharlie, Silver Jan, Darth Sensitive
Askthepizzaguy (4): Inner Stickler, Mahaloth, Silver Jan, Darth Sensitive
gnarlycharlie (2): Askthepizzaguy, DaphneBlack
Astral Rejection (2): Idle Thoughts, gnarlycharlie
Idle Thoughts (1): septimus
septimus (1): Idle Thoughts
Pleonast (1): Mahaloth
Darth Sensitive (1): gnarlycharlie
Inner Stickler (1): sinjin
The first vote count of the Day shows that TexCat is in trouble again. More points for septimus and gnarlycharlie. I need to review Idle’s reasoning a little more closely to get a better read on him. Mahaloth and Darth are voting both ways here and don’t get any townie cred from me.
Day 3 Post 821 (Texcat’s claim)
Texcat (5): Idle Thoughts, Mahaloth, gnarlycharlie, Silver Jan, Darth Sensitive
Askthepizzaguy (4): Inner Stickler, Mahaloth, Silver Jan, Darth Sensitive
Astral Rejection (4): Idle Thoughts, gnarlycharlie, DiggitCamara, Askthepizzaguy
gnarlycharlie (2): DaphneBlack, TexCat
Idle Thoughts (2): septimus, TexCat
septimus (2): Idle Thoughts, TexCat
Mahaloth (2): TexCat, Askthepizzaguy
Darth Sensitive (2): TexCat, DaphneBlack
Pleonast (1): Mahaloth
Darth Sensitive (1): gnarlycharlie
Inner Stickler (1): sinjin
Silver Jan (1): TexCat
septimus (1): DaphneBlack
wevets (1): DaphneBlack
OMGUS. That is all.
Actually, that is not all. septimus comes off the TexCat train and loses the town points he get for starting it. pizza gains no votes here despite being #2 behind a scum player. Some momentum picks up on Astral here.
Day 3 Post 842
Askthepizzaguy (5 votes) – Inner Stickler (731), Mahaloth (763), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784), Astral Rejection (828)
Texcat (5 votes) - Idle Thoughts (760), Mahaloth (763), gnarlycharlie (764), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784)
Astral Rejection (4 votes) – Idle Thoughts (754), gnarlycharlie (764), Diggitcamara (809), Askthepizzaguy (815)
Darth Sensitive (4 votes) - gnarlycharlie (764), Texcat (802), DaphneBlack (820), septimus (824)
Septimus (2 votes) – Idle Thoughts (760), DaphneBlack (820)
Mahaloth (2 votes) - Texcat (802), Askthepizzaguy (814)
Inner Stickler (1 vote) - sinjin (788)
gnarlycharlie (1 vote) - DaphneBlack (741)
Idle Thoughts (1 vote) - septimus (757)
Pleonast (1 vote) - Mahaloth (763)
Silver Jan (1 vote) - Texcat (802)
Wevets (1 vote) - DaphneBlack (820)
pizza comes into a tie with TexCat here thanks to Astral. Astral comes out against a Texcat lynch, and chooses pizza as the next closest candidate.
TexCat has yet to really post a self-defense vote against anybody. Yes, this includes Astral, but that would only cause a tie. Notably, ahe also avoids a self-defense vote against pizza.
Day 3 Post 852 (Last Vote before 11:59AM buzzer-beater)
Texcat (5 votes) - Idle Thoughts (760), Mahaloth (763), gnarlycharlie (764), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784)
Askthepizzaguy (5 votes) – Inner Stickler (731), Mahaloth (763), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784), Astral Rejection (828)
Darth Sensitive (5 votes) - gnarlycharlie (764), Texcat (802), DaphneBlack (820), septimus (824), Askthepizzaguy(843)
Astral Rejection (4 votes) – Idle Thoughts (754), gnarlycharlie (764), Diggitcamara (809), Rysto (852)
Septimus (2 votes) – Idle Thoughts (760), DaphneBlack (820)
Mahaloth (2 votes) - Texcat (802), Askthepizzaguy (814)
Inner Stickler (1 vote) - sinjin (788)
gnarlycharlie (1 vote) - DaphneBlack (741)
Idle Thoughts (1 vote) - septimus (757)
Pleonast (1 vote) - Mahaloth (763)
Silver Jan (1 vote) - Texcat (802)
Wevets (1 vote) - DaphneBlack (820)
pizza gives up on Astral and moves on to Darth. The reasoning is, and I quote “Let’s get uncomfortable then!” This is horrible reasoning for a vote at a very, very critical time. TexCat still has not voted in self-defence.
Day 3 Final
Texcat (6 votes) - Idle Thoughts (760), Mahaloth (763), gnarlycharlie (764), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784), Rysto (860)
Askthepizzaguy (6 votes) – Inner Stickler (731), Mahaloth (763), Silver Jan (775), Darth Sensitive (784), Astral Rejection (828), Texcat (867)
Darth Sensitive (5 votes) - gnarlycharlie (764), Texcat (802), DaphneBlack (820), septimus (824), Askthepizzaguy(843)
Astral Rejection (4 votes) – Idle Thoughts (754), gnarlycharlie (764), Diggitcamara (809), Rysto (852)
Septimus (2 votes) – Idle Thoughts (760), DaphneBlack (820)
Mahaloth (2 votes) - Texcat (802), Askthepizzaguy (814)
Inner Stickler (1 vote) - sinjin (788)
gnarlycharlie (1 vote) - DaphneBlack (741)
Idle Thoughts (1 vote) - septimus (757)
Pleonast (1 vote) - Mahaloth (763)
Silver Jan (1 vote) - Texcat (802)
Wevets (1 vote) - DaphneBlack (820)
Rysto (1 vote) - Texcat
TexCat finally votes in self-defence – after the deadline. Now I have to play WIFOM – did TexCat believe that her vote for pizza would count or not? As always, the only way not to lose at WIFOM is not to play, so I won’t try to consider that vote.
At this point I am going to vote pizza. TexCat’s refusal to vote for him is even more damning than her refusal to vote for Astral, and Astral and pizza both look to have an equally bad Day 1 voting record to me.
So, my todo items from this post:
- examine pizza’s and Astral’s Pleonast votes on Day 1. They came with a bandwagon forming and TexCat in trouble, so they are very interesting votes.
- examine Astral, pizza and Darth’s dizzy votes from Day 1. They also came at a critical time for TexCat.
- review Idle’s history against TexCat
- Try to post outside of +/-12 hours from DuskDawn